Friday, February 05, 2010

Why Cruddas Won't be Labour Leader

There's a two page rather adulatory interview with Jon Cruddas in this week's New Statesman. It portrays Cruddas as a potential candidate for the Labour leadership and the only one with radical new ideas. However, the interview has three flaws.

1. There is absolutely no mention of Cruddas's failure to combat the BNP in his Dagenham constituency. Indeed, the BNP only gets one passing mention. Margaret Hodge, in neighbouring Barking, tells friends that she has given up trying to get through to Cruddas just how serious the BNP threat is.

2. The interview says that Cruddas lives in Dagenham. He doesn't. He lives in Notting Hill. He has a house in Dagenham which I now understand he rents out, although a friend of his denies this. Whatever the truth, his main home is in Notting Hill not Dagenham

3. The whole premise of the article comes unstuck because of one important thing - again, not mentioned in the entire interview. What is it? The fact that after the election, Cruddas may very well not be an MP, as he could easily lose his seat to the Tory candidate Simon Jones. Jones has been in situ for nearly four years and is one of the party's brightest and best grassroots campaigners.

Dagenham & Rainham is a seat the TV cameras should concentrate on. It may throw up a result with huge political implications in more ways than one.

If you'd like to help Simon's campaign to oust Jon Cruddas, here's how you can do it.


Anonymous said...

Iain, this is pure fail.

1) Cruddas has worked to fight the BNP. He has mostly done it through 'Hope not Hate' if you bothered to look. It's Hodge that has been lazy in fighting the BNP, not Cruddas. Get your facts right.

2) Evidence?

3) Don't be silly.

Penfold said...

Lives in "Nitting" Hill eh, well that really does make him a man of the people and in touch with his constituents in the East End.

Yet another political hoi polloi of the established elite who wants to rule over us.

BrianSJ said...

...and the difference between Margaret Hodge and a fascist thug is what exactly?

Working Class Tory said...

"laurie171079", regarding point 3, have you ever been to Dagenham? Ever campaigned there? I know the electoral demographics of that seat extremely well, and unlike you I know that there's a very good chance Simon will win there.

The Labour vote can be roughly split into five parts:

1. The New Labour voters who are going to vote Tory like most who gave Blair a chance.
2. The Old Labour voters who will be voting BNP.
3. The disaffected Labour voters who will be staying at home.
4. The Labour voters who have seen Simon campaign, met him and thought he's a nice guy and will vote for him.
5. The loyal Labour voters, who will vote.

Add that to the fact there was already a loyal Tory vote, then add the fact Rainham, an ultra-safe Tory area gets added to the seat, and you've got yourself a win for Simon Jones.

Anonymous said...

I have indeed campaigned there. Predictions for the seat make it a win for Cruddas (go to political betting). It's not a safe seat, I admit. Also, seeing how there will be a lot of people out for Cruddas, the Tories won't win.

Anonymous said...

John Cruddas is doomed -DOOMED to defeat!!!!

Cardinal Richelieu's mole said...

Explain why any of the points you raise disqualifies Mr Cruddas from the leadership of New Labour?

This sort of weak analysis from you might play with the chattering classes and SW1-istas but elsewhere, including East Surrey :shakes head mournfully:

Iain Dale said...

Are you for real? Well, for one, if he loses his seat he can't stand for the leadership. Clear enough?

Bond007 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bond007 said...

Barry - you're a bit sure of yourself on this point aren't you?

Actually Crudas has a very good chance of losing his seat from what I read.

I am now very much looking forward to the day when you are proven wrong ... not too long to go now.

Andy JS said...

Dagenham & Rainham is counting on the night thankfully. Hopefully at least 500 seats will come through on the night which should be enough to have a projection +/- 5 seats (based on previous elections).