Some Labour people may think I'm sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible.James Macintyre, New Statesman, November 23rd
Now, some of us have been arguing this is likely for months, and my colleague Mehdi Hasan and I went into it in some detail back in June, when Mehdi was if anything surer (I thought then and -- shock horror still think now -- that a small overall majority for Labour is the most likely outcome). Indeed, yesterday's poll and the apparent trend reminded me that, after I dared to suggest in my new year predictions (some wrong, some right), that the two main parties' positions in the polls would switch by the end of this year...
In fact, private polling commissioned by Number Ten is today showing just that.
Now they can't both be right. One of them is making it up or Downing Street it spinning it both ways within two weeks. I know which my money is on.
UPDATE: I will let a professional have the last word. Read what Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has to say HERE.