Tuesday, September 25, 2007

You Gov Poll Puts Labour Eleven Points Ahead

Channel 4 News have a YouGov poll tonight showing an eleven point Labour lead. Even the most cautious of Prime Ministers would surely be tempted by that. It is another sign that the momentum towards an election is becoming almost unstoppable.

I am now going to stick my neck out. Rather than say on the one hand this and the other hand that (see virtually every political journalist in Bournemouth!) I now predict that by this time next week Gordon Brown will definitely have called an election.

Of course, now that I have predicted it, it is certain not to happen, in which case I shall take full credit for it. I thank you.


Anonymous said...

Iain, do you really believe these polls. They seem so wildly fluctuating its as if they are being falsified to either sucker Brown into calling an election or the Conservatives into panicking.

James Burdett said...

This poll is insane, asking people immediately after the speech has been given is hardly going to see a bad result for Labour. If Brown uses this poll as the basis of an election call he would be clinically insane. I think you are wrong Iain. Brown has no intention of calling an election and I don't think he ever has had. Although we will know fairly soon either way I imagine.

Right is right said...

Well the only chink of light from this poll is that Cameron cannot possibly do anything other than improve the party standing at Blackpool next week.

I forecast that after DC finishes his speech the polling will show a moderate recovery, maybe 2-3%. If the party are serious about getting back in the game we need to use this as a springboard.

Anonymous said...

I cannot fathom this - Cameron was doing pretty well until a couple of months back.

What is your analysis, Iain ? Does the fact that he has now had to show his hand 'policy-wise' give Labour the stick they need to beat him with ?

Or has Brown simply got the policy agenda which people want ?

Or [heaven forbid] are Cornerstone actually more in touch with the British public ??

Paul Burgin said...

'Of course, now that I have predicted it, it is certain not to happen, in which case I shall take full credit for it. I thank you.'

So you are hedging your bets! ;)

Anonymous said...

I've just hear a BBC political correspondent ant the Labour conference state as if it was fact that David Miliband was an 'Intellectual heavyweight'. Bloody BBC.

Anonymous said...

Are Labour 11 points ahead in Scotland, or Wales, or anywhere in southern England? What nonsense, he'd be mad to call an election, when he doesn't have to, on such a specious figure from a single poll.

Anonymous said...


Me off to Italy (Lake Garda) first thing Wednesday for 7 days.

Perhaps all this nonsense will blair away by next week !

Anonymous said...

Calm down Iain. It came after Brown's speech.
The speech was dire, but it seems people need to be told that it was dire, and most commentators this morning have said so, particularly Littlejohn and Letts in The Mail.

Newmania said...

I wonder iian .If brown bounces into office will everyone feel a year from now they got away with it ala Major .With no good will at all ...and that is what he will get, its hard to achieve much.

It occurrs to me that after Blair Brown may feel that crushing the opposition is not enough. He may want to be loved , or at least less hated . Whatever his majority he will face the implacable loathing of the remainder which is not at all what Blair had. Thus far all he has done is nothing plus gestures .

I think next Spring for that reason and I also think if he goes now he will not have it all his won way

Anonymous said...

Iain - thank you. I have never been so relieved. Your predition is all the assurance I need to take my key-marginal seat of "red alert".

By the way - I have always refrained from commenting on polls because I work in the industry - but 44% is laughable. The figure is 2% higher than achieved by Mrs Thatcher in the 1983 post-Falklands election. There is no way Labour are anywhere near 44%.

Anonymous said...

"I've just hear a BBC political correspondent ant the Labour conference state as if it was fact that David Miliband was an 'Intellectual heavyweight'."

Well, Miliband had only been in the job a day or two and John Simpson was likening him to John F. Kennedy, so I'm not surprised.

Mulligan said...

"Well the only chink of light from this poll is that Cameron cannot possibly do anything other than improve the party standing at Blackpool next week."

You would hope not wouldn't you? Unfortunately he's probably fizzing with new ideas on extra green taxes to hit us all with for going about our daily lives, whilst doing a great impression of Marcel Marceau about McStalin's spiteful taxes over past 10 years. If anyone with a 3 or more bed house in Southern England votes for Brown they must have their heads so far up their own arses, plus memory of a goldfish, that all hope is lost.

Geezer said...

Another convenient poll. These polls are not about encouraging Brown to call an election, it's about destroying Cameron and giving an excuse for Pravda (BBC) and the Brownite media, in general, to spin more negative Cameron stories and drag the Conservatives into a media led downward spiral and give Brown the forward momentum, all at the most important time of the political year.
This started at the local elections, when gaining 900 seats was seen as "not a good day" for the Conservatives, by nearly all media outlets, even the DT and Daily Hate-Mail. They didn't want to give the public the perception of Cameron on the up, just as Broon was about to become PM. What is so disturbing about this, is that all the media outlets, are singing from the same hymn sheet. Democracy is in a very bad way in this country!

Anonymong said...

Who on earth are voting Labour?

It would be interesting to see some demographics here (income, age, ethenicity etc.)

Anonymous said...

Labour were on about 44% in '97, there is no reason they couldn't do it again. They won't because 4/5 of those who say they will vote Labour will vote Libdem, to keep a Tory out.

I agree with Iain, Brown will call an election probably on Monday, if the weekend polls are showing leads of 8% or above.

The Tories. many Tories won't even bother to vote, they want Cameron out, and they'll accept 4/5 years of Brown as the penalty for doing it.

Nich Starling said...

Geezer, you just can't see it can you ? Cameron is NOT well liked. he is, in fact, the biggest obstacle to the Tories success. I know natural Tory voters who switched to Labour and Lib Dem in the past who might consider going back to the blue camp were it not for Cameron.

Anonymous said...

This is ridiculous!

Why are you being so stupid. There is not going to be an election. Everything that Brown has said has shown that.

You seem to be totally out of touch with what is going on here. Brown has never had an intention of calling an election and you clearly have nothing as evidence to suggest he has.

Anonymous said...

"The Tories. many Tories won't even bother to vote, they want Cameron out, and they'll accept 4/5 years of Brown as the penalty for doing it."

4/5 years of Brown and a European superstate? Let's bloody well hope not, I was counting on not having to emigrate for at least another 5 years; on this timetable, by that time I might not be allowed to.

Anonymous said...

Geezer - I cannot help but echo Norfolk Blogger. What space have you occupied for the last two years that you do not realise that Cameron is almost universally disliked among Tories?

This has nothing to do with the BBC or Labour. Cameron did their work for them by word and deed (Norway; ice floe; huskies, and similar empty gestures)and his patronising attitude to the rest of us. He is frightened of us, and it shows.

He waved the MPs on the Opposition benches to give the foul Blair a standing ovation. I for one will never forgive him for that, and it had nothing to do with the Beeb. Cameron did it all by himself. With a silly, "sporting" little smile on his face.

Jolly good!

Anonymous said...

I still don't know whether to feel smug or stupid for not taking 8-1 on a 2007 election. I might take up smoking again...

Anonymous said...

We're past tipping point for Dave.
People are just laughing at him now.

Steven Ronald said...

Didn't you say that the GE was going to be anounced Yesterday?

Newmania said...

Norfolk- The reason Conservatives get fed up with Cameron is that he is a bit too Liberal. last I saw the Liberal party were on 14%.So they are not going there as you would expect
14% !Thats not a party thats a "gathering " of a few close friends.

I like Cameron personally and I suspect he will do well in Liberal areas . We have to get back into the North though and that is where the intial surge did not take root. I think eventually tax cuts will be the answer there but not now.

Incidentally I also feel the Liberal Party is being very harshly treated ..there are some good ideas coming from it...with the usual bad ones IMHO

Anonymous said...

Anonymong said...
"Who on earth are voting Labour?

It would be interesting to see some demographics here (income, age, ethenicity etc.)"

We should get their names, addresses etc and give them to BNP activists. Enough's enough.

Anonymous said...

Could there be a familiar rocking horse effect running up to polling day?

Wrinkled Weasel said...

It doesn't take an overpaid luvvy at Labour HQ to have figured out the cunning plan: simply announce a general election during the Conservative Party Conference and then flood the media with Governement spokesmen who will tease and entice and grab airtime that would have gone to the Conservatives.

That's my call. I stand ready to eat humble pie.

Helen said...

Do we know what proportion of those asked said that they did not know/would vote for one of the small parties/did not intend to vote? Because it is those figures that are really important.

M. Hristov said...

The next edition of "The Thick of It" is likely to focus on election speculation. The situation has become farcical. You can imagine the "spin doctors" on both sides working themselves into a lather about this.

The usual suspects, eg Peter Mandelson, busy stoking the flames and a defiantly antediluvian
Neil Kinnock rubbishing it and asking for the Tories, who Brown is so acidulously wooing, to be ground into dust, despite being President of the British Council (culture tsar- ha,ha). On the other side everyone totally feverish and glued to Iain Dale, who is completely carried away by the gossip and in his element.

Amando Iannucci must be shaking the dust off his word processor as we speak.

Though I suggest a more respectful attitude to political bloggers this time - Who cares about them in their own bedrooms, being a paraphrase of a line in the last edition.

Anonymous said...

The collapse in the Lib Dem vote is truly something to behold. Too bad it's all going to Broon, but then I'm not convinced that he is to the left of Cameron, frankly.

At least we will take back the seats in the south west that were loaned to the LimpDumbs in '97, and from what I last heard, Labour will face a serious challenge in Scotland from the Nats.

James Higham said...

We say things and they're ignored. Among others, I've been saying for a long time that Cameron is not the man, he doesn't inspire and there are better choices. This goes to show.

You can quote all sorts of reasons - the bounce factor et al - but the people know, deep down. Shame because Labour deserved to lose.

What do you think - November election?

Anonymous said...

It would be nice to hear something from the Conservative leadership, if it's not TOO much trouble because by next week during their Conference nobody will actually be listening as the news agenda will be set by Gordon - and it's goodbye Dave I'm afraid !.

Anonymous said...

The poll result is hardly surprising when Labour are dominating the news agenda. When did we last see any Tory news or comment? By contrast, there will no doubt be plenty coverage in our partisan press of the Labour reaction to next week's conference. But does anyone really believe Brown will go to the country with the prospect of a collapse in the Labour vote in Scotland?

Daily Referendum said...

I have come to the conclusion that the opinion polls that have been published over the last three months are a total and utter load of codswallop. I don't know of anyone who is not annoyed in some way or other with Gordon Brown. If you don't believe me go to the BBC News site and have a look at the Have your say section on Gordon's speech. I only got as far as reading the first 15 comments, but every single one was exceedingly critical of Brown's speech and his governance. I've got no idea who is being polled, but I doubt very much that the people selected are a accurate cross section of public opinion. The BBC News site is far from being pro-Tory and from reading the comments it is abundantly clear that Brown is far from popular.

I hope that Gordon will call an early election. He will lose, and lose badly.

Anonymous said...

Iain, you should check out the Scottish polls - on the latest one,published this week, Brown and Darling lose their seats whilst the SNP surges ahead.

According to the STel, my constituency is a key marginal, held by Cons since '05. Labour haven't worked it AT ALL since the GE, and won't be selecting for a candidate till January.

Northern Wreck is in even deeper trouble, Govt borrowing is far bigger than predicted by Brown, the IMF is issuing warning.

Disaffected military (and their families), tortured farmers (and their families), frenzied medics (and their families)... what a good time to have an election, NOT.

Brown has been heard to say that he is allowing all this speculation to make the Tories squirm, and we are allowing him to succeed.

Anonymous said...

If you cannot see that the electorate and media is being manipulated by the political establishment and that establishment has chosen who will win the next GE then you are clearly blind! In todays UK the GE and Parliament are meaningless and has no bearing on the true nature of real political power! We the British nation are in the grip of a semi fascist anti democratic monster the EU and it is now the greater EU reich and its "profesional commisars" who will decide our future! Heres a clue for you, polls are the easiest thing in the world to rig and you could prove that white is in fact black IF you had a mind to!

Sonicdeathmonkey said...

Ah...we'll see....Labour are on top of the news agenda at the moment...but next week is the crutial one. The Tory's need to show a united front, come out with clear ideas and policys and attack Labour..

I personally think Browns left it too long for an election. We're slipping out of October dates, and will he really risk a Novemeber election with dark evenings and bad weather (which is bound to help the Tory's)..

I'm not convinced at all.

Anonymous said...

We love you Iain we do...

Anonymous said...

Any Prime Minister who does not go to the country given the current state of the polls wants their head testing.

As for me - I'm one of Graham Sharpe's "shrewdies" who invested £100 with William Hill on an October election ay 16/1.

I think the biggest danger to my bet going down now is if he calls it on November 1st instead.

Than I would be gutted!

Pitty I'm not going to make it to Bournemouth otherwise I'd buy you all a drink.

Have a nice time anyway Iain.

Anonymous said...

""I've just hear a BBC political correspondent ant the Labour conference state as if it was fact that David Miliband was an 'Intellectual heavyweight'."

Well, Miliband had only been in the job a day or two and John Simpson was likening him to John F. Kennedy, so I'm not surprised."

Miliband was embarrassing. He looked like a schoolboy reading out something a grownup had quickly written for him and trying to sound as if he understood it.

Anonymous said...


What you say about Brown may very well be true. That does not mean people are going to vote for the hopeless Daveboy.

Anonymous said...

Judith, would you be able to link to the poll showing that Brown and Darling would lose their seats? That's major news in itself. How ironic, if Labour were to win a landslide across the country but the PM were to lose his own seat!!

Oh, and Iain, remember your prediction that Alan Johnson would become Labour leader and Prime Minister? Not much of a pundit, are you? ;-)

Anonymous said...

Labour's poll lead increases with each green tax proposal from Zack Goldsmith.

Madasafish said...


Tebbit: Brown is the natural heir to Thatcher
By Sophie Borland
Last Updated: 8:30am BST 26/09/2007

Gordon Brown has been hailed as the natural heir to Margaret Thatcher by Lord Tebbit, the former Tory chairman.

Lord Tebbit criticised the Tories for being out of touch with half of Britain's population

Lord Tebbit, the Conservative MP for Chingford, praised the Prime Minister whilst also delivering a damaging blow to his party's own leader David Cameron.

He said that Baroness Thatcher knew exactly what she was doing when she visited Mr Brown at No 10 two weeks ago at the same time that Mr Cameron had been at pains to distance himself from her.

Lord Tebbit, who was the Conservative party chairman between 1985 and 1987, criticised Mr Cameron saying: "I think we lack somebody of the standing of Margaret."

In contrast, he praised Mr Brown, saying: "I think he is a clever man and I have very considerable regard for him."

In an interview with The Times which will be published this weekend, he said the Prime Minister was not "tacky" like his predecessor Tony Blair

Anonymous said...

My totally unscientific reading of things is that the Conservatives lost an enormous amount of goodwill amongst voters who were previously inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt with the grammar school debacle. Any recovery after this was then perhaps fatally damaged with the car park tax nonsense. Neither are really huge issues but they seemed to make people ask if they really trusted the instincts of the party in its current guise.

Anonymous said...

Well, we are 'fooked'. Reasons for Labour's (sustained)poll lead: i) we are thankful the most decietful scumbag of a PM has recently resigned.ii)GB 'looks' authoratative.iii) DC does not come across as authoratative- comes across as a wet Liberal Democrat. iv) Since 1997 party 'personalities' have clamoured to be TV personalities. iv)prominent MP's will not give up 'outside influences' and concentrate on getting rid of Labour.v) we cannot convince our own side (conservative minded voters) of being wholly fit for government- how the hell can we convince 'floating voters' then?!vi)The Party has become pc whipped by the CRE, BBC and assorted 'leftish' organisations. I recall the news analysis after Election 97 when it was stated the Party 'does not know what is going on out there' (ie) WHY the hammering). It STILL doesn't.

Anonymous said...

Norman Tebbit has just said that Gordon Brown is the Heir to Thatcher - and contrasted David Cameron's attempts to cast himself as the heir to blair - we are now at an interesting juncture in british politics, where some of the thatcherite, working class, such as Tebbit and maybe the lady herself are very clearly aligning themsleves to Brown, and Tebbit is very much contrasting Solid Brown with the rather out of touch Cameron. This more than anything is why GB might go to the polls this autumn - he has the momentum behind him, and can draw on a very wide cross section of support. Discussing these things with Tory supporting colleagues who were in Bournemouth this week it seems clear that the Tories are rattled and GB is on top of his game

Oscar Miller said...

I am convinced that all the poll spin is another stunt (one the media is very happy colluding with) just to blow the Tory party conference out the water. There'll be endless efforts to embarrass Cameron next week over the polls and endless malicious taunting about an imminent election just the way stunt man Brown likes it. Listening to the coverage of the Labour conference it's obvious senior figures have been briefed to play up election speculation. I don't believe Brown has any intention of actually calling an election this year. It's yet another big bluff from a man fixated on taunting the Conservatives.

Anonymous said...

If I might find a silver lining here... the collapse of the lib dems. That pretty much rules out a grubby deal for PR at Westminster. It does not, however, rule out PR for English local government. The subsequent decimation of our local councillor/activist base really would throw us into deep problems as we try to recover from the looming GE defeat... We MUST pull together in Blackpool or else...

Anonymous said...

You really have to hand to the Conservatives.

They've really honed the knack of defeating themselves over the last decade. Such an ill discliplined rabble quite frankly deserve the political oblivion they'll certainly get if some people who should know better don't button it and stop pontificating to an hostile media.

Whether or not you like Cameron;believe in his policies or anything else if you want another decade of Labour keep shooting your mouths off and we'll get it.

Anonymous said...

Now this is the headlines that count


Oscar Miller said...

There are two extremely good reasons why Brown won't go to the polls this year - 1. Scotland (as others have pointed out) 2. Turnout. People are turned off politics and I just don't think they're going to show up to vote - especially not in November. A fifty something percentage turnout is on the cards. That - combined with the failure to hold a referendum on the EU constitution -would look seriously undemocratic. I think Peter Oborne's thesis is the right one - the divide isn't between parties but between the political class and the utterly alienated rest of us. And the Tebbitt stuff is yet more game playing - it might scare the Tory party faithful, but remember it will be a very serious turn-off to the Labour heartlands especially in the North and Scotland.

Anonymous said...

Whilst your logic is impeccable,I don't think that GB will dare risk substantial losses in Scotland and erode his power base even if he could secure an overall Westminster majority.It would be ironic if he was effectively torpedoed by the results of his own devolution policy.

Anonymous said...


All you old etonian tory boys. I love class vengeance.Come out to play so toughies like me can throw stones at you.

Or better still, lets have a General Election.

Anonymous said...

Peter Kellner has just said on BBC that he feels the recent YouGov poll can be discounted as "convention bounce" as his organisation polled just after Gordon's speech to conference and quite frankly even he dis-believes that figure. He feels the truer Labour lead is nearer 4%-6%.

It would still be nice for some of the Conservative leadership to start demolishing the puffed up vanities of Brown and more recently his "Gofor" Balls who had everyone in the hall giving a round of applause for almost everyone under the Sun(surprised he didn't include the cleaners of the conference hall !).

Andrew Neill just performed a demolition job on Tessa Jowell(pity the Cameronians can't be bothered to stir themselves to start criticising Labour instead of the odd political commentator). Neill accused Labour of steaing the Conservatives big ideas, which during the last election they rubbished(Border Police for one) and that Gordon's Labour Party has written Blair out of the picture completely. Jowell huffed and puffed but when challenged by Neill to name one Ministerial Speech at Conference that had mentioned let alone praised Blair she couldn't other than to waffle about Gordon's speech. This is the sort of stuff the Tories should be doing to Labour now - to-day, Not gazing at our navels or just doing nothing

No wonder Tory approval of Brown has shot up by 22% since he took office and 44% of the electorate think he's a better leader than Cameron

Madasafish said...

Well I asked myself over the weekend these questions:-

1.Why should I - a natural supporter and voter for the Conservatives - vote Conservative?
2.Which of their policies are better?
3.Will they be more efficient in managing the NHS, the environment ,the economy?

I cannot answer 2.. I don't know what policies the CP will have.

As for 3 I can only judge them by what they are actually doing now.
Are they a well disciplined party?
Are they an effective Opposition?
Do I trust the individuals concerned to run the country well?
And the answer to all three has got to be : NO.

So at present I cannot see me voting Conservative...

Anonymous said...

I just hope that GB is daft enough to believe these "polls".

David Lindsay said...

I was going to ask how Tebbit was still in receipt of the Tory Whip in the Lords after this. But Mercer and Bercow are still in receipt of the Tory Whip in the Commons, so why not?

It's a wonder that Brown doesn't have it. Perhaps he should apply for it, on the grounds that if Mercer, Bercow and Tebbit are allowed it, then on exactly what basis can Cameron turn him down? He should do this as publicly as possible, of course.

Anonymous said...

Cheer up Iain:
there is an on-line electoral poll running on the doctors’ web site www.doctors.net.uk

The current figures are:
Conservative 73.7%
Liberals 12.3%
Others 9.1%
Labour 4.8%

I put the figures into Baxter (which makes no allowance for “others”)
It gave the following outcome:
Consevatives 627 seat
Liberals 0
Labour 0

Anonymous said...

Oh come on, you are all getting yourself into a tizzy over a YouGov poll. At the last election, I was warned that YouGov being an online poll is the most unreliable of all polls available.

Anonymous said...

Is it not the case that parties always see a spike in their ratings at conference time? So, given that, perhaps this is a bit overly encouraging. My guess is that things will settle down a bit next week after Blackpool.

Iain - can you clarify if the spikes are the norm? And if so, does this give you an out on your prediction?

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Who is 18DS lining up for election night?

Your producers should be doing this now!

I suggest

John Sargeant, Anne Widdecombe, Stefan Shakespeare, Billy Bragg and Stephen Twigg (is he running this time?)

You should also get the Devil and Cranmer on and oh,...get Verity an air ticket.

Mulligan said...

"if you want another decade of Labour keep shooting your mouths off and we'll get it."

Actually the problem is Cameron shooting his mouth off about stupid green policies, whilst we all know that once reelected Brown will no longer give a bugger about middle England and unleash all sorts of new nasty taxation. FFS Dave, give Goldsmith to the LibDems or Greens and let's have policies that people really care about.

Anonymous said...

Channel 4 news hates new labour.

They have timed this poll in the full knowledge that the lead can only fall with the approaching tory conference.

It will now become folklore, for years to come, that Brown had an 11 point lead but didn't go to the polls. The context will be forgotten.

Scipio said...

Unless David Cameron gets up on stage wearing a Hawaian shirt, advocates sex with goats and is arrested for beating his wife, expect a similar 'bounce' after his speech next week.

Brown will only call an election under two circumstances.

1. He has riged the poll so he knows he will win, or

2. He knows the person who has rigged the poll so he knows he will win

Seriously, he has waited now many years to be where he is now? Risk that - my arse he will!

I am not saying he doesn't lie awake at night thinking 'what if.....', but unless the private polls Labour are doing show the following:

1. a 10% lead over the Troies
2. a 10% lead personal lead over Cameron
3. a Majority of people wanting an election in the Autumn
4. A good weather forecast
5. A bad conference for Cameron

there will be no way he will go. And when he goes, he will go long.

He is not a risk taker - which ultimately might be to his disadvantage. A long delay and the Teflon Chacellor may be the victim of his own mistakes. An economy slowing down, debt rising, sub-prime mortgages coming home to roost......

The queston for the Tories however (one they have yet to resolve) is this, Although David Cameron was the man to beat Blair, is he the man to beat Brown? If he isn't who is? Hague? Davis? perhaps even Alan Duncan - who I think is one of the best performers on the front bench at the moment.

This wil be THE question the media will fosucing on at Blackpool INHO.

If it was me, I'd call the election about ten minutes into David Cameron's speech on the steps on number ten! But then I used to like pulling the wings of butterflies when I was a child.

Scipio said...

Anon 9.25. He isn't a heaveyweight - and neither was his father.

He just tries to look like one - a cross between a kid from the 80's who grew up playing with his ZX Spectrum rather than with his willy and a sales rep for a stationary company who suffers from bad breath and an addiction to porn!

I am sure I saw him with David Brent once!

Oscar Miller said...

Ok - I know I'm in a serious minority here - a Conservative party supporter who likes David Cameron. But I am getting fed up reading all the cynical Dave bashing comments. It's not David Cameron who is shallow and opportunist - it's members of the Conservative party who voted for him as leader just because the media was telling them he would win them the next election without any real support for the changes he proposed. Cameron spelt out extremely clearly in the long and lavishly covered leadership contest exactly what he stood for and he has stuck with that - right down to his policy on grammar schools. I remember it, even if half the Tory party seem to have forgotten it. It encouraged me to support the Conservatives for the first time in my life. What the party has got is what it voted for. The abject failure to now stand by your man is pitiful.

Newmania said...

I have had a thought about the question of the moment, and it is my prediction that Gordon Brown will not be tempted by his chimerical 11% lead and will go round to next year at least if not beyond.. Think back to Tony Blair , even those who voted against him were not eaten with bitterness and many thought the divided Conservatives had it coming . Gordon does not have this luxury
Golden Brown ( taxes for fun) does not just want an administration he wants psoterity .The ephemeral swing voters may swing like a car-key party but they do not a move opinions like the politically informed enemy. These are some of the reasons why Brown will walk into a firestorm of loathing from day one .

Cash for honours – Brown ran the election campaign does anyone think he didn`t known where the money came from
Tax- 38% state governed expenditure has become 45% on his watch
Tax Credits – Delivered like a clown school graduate and failed at huge expense
Democratic deficit – His use of British-ness sets new levels of sheer cheek
Welfare- It was he who organised the expulsion if Frank Field and the genuine attempt by New Labour to reform welfare . Today 80 % of the 96 billion is something for nothing.
Public Services- he more than anyone has been the puppet master engineering a regime of cash without reform to the destruction of health education and policing

Polls cannot show you how much your opposition hates you but Gordon knows and he knows the importance of an irreconcileable resistance.
Much has been made of the example of Callaghan who dithered until the Winter of discontent . What about the example of Major though ? He had a 15% lead on the basis he was not Margaret Thatcher and with great skill charted a period of consolidation. He faced , however, the implacable opposition of those who had never had the chance to vent their rage on Thatcher. When it went wrong it was the end not only for Major but the Conservatives to this day. Brown was there to watch as the Conservative project rotted.

We know we’ve been conned and Brown knows we know . 11 % is tempting but he will be fighting for every inch of his programme if he bounced Britain into the “Second Phase”.I think he will try to establish a level of tolerance in the opposition which will be as important as sheer votes for any momentum to be maintained .

I freshen my disgust daily but others may be weak. Keep the faith.Maintain your hate

Anonymous said...

I don't want to say 'I TOLD YOU SO!

But I told you so.

The Tories are dead and the Empire is dead, therefore there is no further use for a right wing party such as the Tory Party.

Dave is trying to abandon Tory 'values' and attemting to form a Socialist Liberal alliance based upon being the 'heir to Blair'

This is a smart move but will probably be around 50 years before the last remnants of the ant European fox hunting brigade depart to a concentration camp in the sky.

All in all, it's full steam ahead for the party of socialism that is re-builing societies, services and aspirations.

You lot can't or won't see this beacause you can't see the freedoms gained through teaties penned or the cruelties inflicted upon defenceless (fluffy) dumb animals that have the 'right to roam'(nice one Gary).

The Tories are a vicious, nasty and divisive party, that is divided.

Split Parties who deny Europe ultimately die, as your dead party lays great testament to.

NB. I charge £100 per speech for anyone going to conference this year.


Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on that idiot Norman Tebbit?

Anonymous said...

If he does not call an election it probably shows that he did not believe the polls.

Anonymous said...

There's a lot of wishful thinking going on here. There will be some defections - more high profile than the A listers who went this week - to Labour before or during Conference. Conference will be riven with splits and accusations and plots. Cameron will miss the public mood again and use his speech to attack Labour in exactly the opposite way to how Brown rose above party political mud slinging on Monday. The polls will get worse. An election will be called for early November and the best that we can hope for is that Labour only increase their majority by between 10 and 30 seats.
Is it really worth the train fare to Blackpool and a wet and windy week on the prom for all this?

Geezer said...

Who let Gary Elsby near a PC again?

Nurse! Nurse! get the sedatives, Gary is out of bed again, you'll find them near Verity.

Anonymous said...

To Gary Elsby stoke-on-trent @ 6:29 PM -

Keep sucking on the teat of NuLabor while you can. If the Great Gordon calls an election, your lot are in for such a nasty surprise 'Kinnock 92 Style'.

Brown and Darling look like they'll be turfed out of their own seats in Scotland.


Anonymous said...

Remember what happened when the Welsh Windbag was so confident. Didn,t the polls forcast a massive labour victory?
Go for it Gordon, you spineless Git. I can,t wait to vote against you. You may even be suprised and get a good kicking in the polls.
That,s why you won,t risk it.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Adrian Yalland.."Unless David Cameron gets up on stage wearing a Hawaian shirt, advocates sex with goats and is arrested for beating his wife..."

You have obviously seen the rough draughts and have a contact at DC's local plod.

Please beleive me, this will be a very interesting Tory Conference. Whereas I have not bothered to watch one moment of the Labour one, I shall be glued to the box for the Blues.

The reason is of course that your man is on the ropes. No, he is not on the ropes, he is in the corner being furiously towelled and massaged with two eyes forced shut due to the swelling.

To change sporting metaphors, I don't want a commentator at the Conservative Conference to say, "Ooh, and that was a bad miss"

I am waiting for a David David revelation: He will do a stonker of a speech and everyone will know for certain what they have only so far dared think - that he will be the next (and possibly prime ministerial) leader of the Conservative Party.

No Brown bounce, more a Cameron Collapse.