Last night there was a council by election in Bowthorpe ward in Norwich. The Conservatives held it with an increased majority of 154. What's remarkable in that, you might ask? Well, this is a ward which up until the last few years the Tories came third in. It's near the university and has a very high level of council housing, including the massive Larkman and Earlham estates. But a few years ago, against all the odds, a young candidate called Antony Little won the seat by sheer hard work and indulging in clssic LibDem pavement politics. Last year the Tories won a third seat in the ward but sadly the councillor died recently.
Both Labour and the LibDems threw everything into this by election. They had dozens of people from outside bussed in and North Norfolk MP Norman Lamb was even there last night knocking up. They came third.
Antony Little, who is fighting Charles Clarke at the next election, deserves huge credit. There are now 5 Tory councillor on Norwich City Council, the highest for forty years. His campaign strategy has been one which others would do well to emulate.
I am off up to Norwich today to speak at my old university with Steve Richards about the state of the media. I'm also going to be looking up a couple of old friends, so blogging will be rather lighter today than usual!
UPDATE: Antony Little explains here why this is a good result for the Tories and why the LibDems didn't get the victory they thought was theirs.
42 comments:
And who gives a toss about council elections and councillors exactly?
This is excellent news.
It looks like Norwich Conservatives have understood the first principle of politics. Talk to people, not yourselves!
How often have activists found the hardest people to get out delivering and knocking up are the Councillors and Association officers who are too busy with meetings in the Town Hall or ward and Association executive meetings?
I recall one sitting Councillor being questioned about his on-street activity and his response was that it was not his responsibility to get himself re-elected, he had important things to do in the Council - no, we don't run the Council.
Deliver leaflets, knock on doors and talk to people, then do it again and again and again and again.
"..who gives a toss.."
Obviously not the person who was first to the post to claim it's not significant. Methinks the...chap...protests too much?
Rattled, sweetie? ;)
That's heartening, it's a good sign people are sick of Labour.
Conservatives must be getting rather desparate to spin the loss of over 1/4 of their vote as a success . The LibDem vote went up by 300% .
Contrary to Iains comment the Conservative majority went down from 353 to 154 not up and as in EVERY English council byelection in the last 2 weeks the Conservative vote was lower than in 2004 .
Mark Senior...sounds like you're a tad touchy this morning. Bit of a let down in a by-election was there? After all that LD work too...never mind. Judging by the history of this ward over several years the Con hold is fantastic news...for Conservatives. Still, nearly caught Labour: better luck next time...NOT!
:-)
Con - 36% (-2)
Lab - 30% (-8)
LD - 27% (+16)
Green - 8% (-6)
Con hold
Its a fair point but if you look at the other by-election results such as Rainhill in Merseyside the tory vote completly collapsed in what was once a safe tory seat.
Labour ahs held the seat for many years now but the Tories always had came second and always polled around 900+ votes, last night it completley collapsed and went to Lib Dems.
So thing are not as rosie as you suggest - The Tories should be doing much, much better in seats like Rainhill.
What was the strength of canvassing and door-knocking etc in St Helens? I imagine the LD showing up in strength (as they do) But you're right: if one looks at the Parr ward results with BNP, IND and Green all with a candidate Labour lost 15% but CON also lost (8%)
Not touchy at all as my forecast on Vote 2007 was for a much smaller increase in LibDem vote in Norwich . What is interesting is that in a contest fought very hard by all the 3 main parties ( strangely the Greens did not really put up a fight ) it is the Conservative support that is as soft as snow in June .
Re Parr , of course the Conservative support could not fall by 15% as Labour's did , they only had 12% to start with .
Hopefully a sign of things to come.
I have been to I think Norwich County as opposed to City Council offices.
Either way - the building is a monumental edifice to bureaucratic self importance. A huge flight of steps with huge doors and large echoing reception area. Really makes the serfs feel duly servile.?
St Helens? Well they have got a real working class hero as local MP haven't they?
Just to complete last night's English byelections Torridge ( Devon ) Hartland was a LibDem gain from Independent with over 60% of the vote
LibDem 786 Con 317 UKIP 103 Ind 33
JuliaM said... “Rattled, sweetie? ;)”
Er hardly - but thanks for asking. I just have long experience of the self-importance and utter irrelevance of councillors.
That’s not to say that they couldn’t be relevant; it’s just that at the moment, they aren’t. If we were ever to see a revival in the powers and importance of local government, then yes, they certainly could become relevant.
But that’s not the world we live in and have lived in since Thatcher.
Despite various avowals, I don’t foresee centralising Westminster politicians (of whom Thatcher was the worst) making councillors relevant any time soon.
So - ask the man in the street - they are politically irrelevant and largely unknown in their own fiefdoms.
They serve one political purpose only - to act as foot soldiers in proper elections.
Yes Iain your post is somewhat misleading - you seem to imply that the Tories increased their support whereas actually it fell.
For clarification, the report just published online by the Eastern Daily Press says:
"Mr Wiltshire [Con] won 915 votes, compared to 975 in May 2007 while Labour saw its votes drop from 966 to 761 and the Greens saw a decrease from 337 to 193.
Dave Thomas, for the Lib Dems brought in 686 votes however, compared to 282 in 2007."
"And who gives a toss about council elections and councillors exactly?"
As a man in the street, I care very much, Mr Gardner, arrogant sod.
Mark Senior, yes that Torridge one seems very odd (not for the LD at 63%!)
LD - 63% (+21)
Con - 26% (+26)
UKIP - 8% (-8)
Ind - 3% (-28)
So the CON didn't stand last time?? ...and Green didn't stand this time (was 12%). IND has clearly lost all support he/she had (local issue?...hospital? Farming?) UKIP halved and Labour didn't stand at all...a tactic they oft shared with LD depending on the area.
@ Simon Gardner
Where to start?
Anyway, speak for your delightful self and don't presume too much, eh?
And 55 votes for the Tory in the Parr by-election St Helens.
Doesn't sound all that remarkable. Not remarkable at all.
"Tories hold seat in council by-election following death in office"? Nah, can't see that. The kind of LGBE contest least likely to see a change. IMO.
"It's a good sign people are sick of Labour" said "Sue". Are you mad??
And very interesting to see Mark Senior's factual intervention. Though there's not much sign of comparing fairly from anyone.
Tory vote down a little, Labour vote down more, LD up a lot, usurping Greens as third party, but still very much third.
Probably fall back to a Lab-Con contest in the next scheduled LGE.
There's only one seat in Luke's round up where Tory vote increased, and that in funny little ward held by Inds previously.
Well done Norwich CF.
Norwich has to be one of the more misunderstood areas in the country. The external perception is that it is a sleepy, affluent place with the major problem being city-centre parking for local farmers' tractors. Not so. The city grew rapidly in the sixties and seventies and is now one of the poorer economic areas not just in the UK, but in the EU. Of course, it has its affluent parts, but Bowthorpe (where I used to live when a student at UEA) is not one of them. In recent years the Conservatives would have done well to have retained their deposit there, let alone won a seat in anything except the election for the chairman of the local Conservative club. Well done!!
Good news indeed, though perhaps not as good as it might have been.
There are one or two here who think councillors are of no current value, and that electing MPs is the real deal.
Wrong! It is the other way around. MPs do very little of value as the EU dictates most of the legislation they would have been formulating as representatives of the British people in years past.
Councillors are known in their areas (and often well beyond) as they constantly walk among the people — something that is impossible in a parliamentary constituency, but perfectly feasible within a ward.
On our Council — taking real decisions that have genuine local impact that voters could experience directly — each Councillor represents approx 2% of the total vote (55 members here).
In Parliament one out of more than 630 members makes each MP's vote worth — well, under a sixth of a percent. They also costs a vast amount more in taxpayers' money, as recent news has reminded us.
And there's plenty more, by the way. These are just a few examples.
Don't anyone ever try to put about the idea that MPs are more important, significant or valuable than councillors: they are not.
Well done Antony, this is fantastic news.
Inspired by this story Iain I've taken your Tory election miracle and raised you 10,000 votes.
PS - I also would say that Luke's figures showing the Tories slumping in double digits and Labour not so bad are more reliable that Simon's, and what's more Luke gives the LDs a 19+ increase.
Unsworth spluttered... “Where to start?”
Are we perchance a councillor/a councillor wannabe/an ex councillor/living with a councillor?
I just wondered.
@chrispaul
Labour are saved. Quick call an election before it's too late.
@iaindale
Steve Richards has to be the worst commentator in the broadsheets. He's worse than Kaletsky and Toynbee.
Judge in Ahmed case is a former political appointee.
see my blog
@ Simon Gardner
Spluttered?
And, re councillors - none of the above. Not that it's anything to do with you, anyway.
@ Chris Paul
"I also would say that Luke's figures.....are more reliable that Simon's"
Of course you would.
The LD's are doomed - DOOMED at the next election. The two horse bar graph failed!
LD's = LOL!
Martin Day said... “The LD's [sic] are doomed - DOOMED at the next election.”
There, there. I’m sure that made you feel better.
Any actual psephology or anything on which to base this prediction? Or were you just blowing off?
Simple the Tory vote has gone up and the LD vote has gone down. The Labour vote has also gone down - you can start doing the LD thing equivalent to mosonic hanshakes and flashing nipples with 'incumbancy' but the fact remains the LD's even on rigged UNS models in favour of so called 'LD incumabncy' show the LD's down to the 20's of seats at the next election.
For all the nonsense talked about LD incumbancy since 1997, the fact remains that Nationally the LD's were rising in the percentage of the vote whilst the Tories remained static. In a dramatic reverse where LD's are dropping massively and Tories going up massively in terms of numbers of the vote.
LD's try taking everyone for fools. LD = Yellow taxi come the next election. Has anyone got any psephology to support the LD's holding onto their seats?
martin day said...“the fact remains the LDs even on rigged UNS models in favour of so called “LD incumabncy” show the LDs down to the 20s of seats at the next election. LD = Yellow taxi come the next election. Has anyone got any psephology to support the LDs holding onto their seats?”
Not at all, but how does a pony sound?
I just cannot see it myself.
To hold Political Power must be a wonderful thing...
Has anyone thought of what might happen if the Conservatives and Liberals got together and shared out all the Labour held seats between them and agreed that they would not oppose one another in a General Election for these seats.
If only...
Or alternatively: Has anyone thought of what might happen if Labour and Lib Dems got together and shared out all the Tory held seats between them and agreed that they would not oppose one another in a General Election for these seats..?
But then why would they each be in business in the first place? What you actually need to do is to trot along to the ERS and then try to Make Votes Count.
We need rid of this undemocratic joke of a voting system for good.
Mark Senior wrote:
"Contrary to Iains comment the Conservative majority went down from 353 to 154 not up"
"Conservatives must be getting rather desparate to spin the loss of over 1/4 of their vote as a success"
The results, in the Estern Daily Press show:
"Mr Wiltshire [Con] won 915 votes, compared to 975 in May 2007 while Labour saw its votes drop from 966 to 761 and the Greens saw a decrease from 337 to 193."
Last time out, the Tories got 975 votes and Labour got 966 - a majority of 9. So, where does Labour Lackey Mark Senior get 353 from?
On those figures, the Tory majority went UP from 8 to 154.
The Tories lost 60 votes, Labour lost 205 and the LibDems lost 144. So, it would appear that total voting was down on the day, as everyone lost votes, the total turnout dropping from 2278 to 1869.
The Tories suffered far less from the low turnout than the other parties.
Who's spinning what, here, Mr Senior?
Titus , the vote share changes I gave were from the last time the ward was fought which was 2008 not 2007 and therefore factually correct .
Why the Conservatives should feel the need to use 2007 rather than 2008 or 2006 or 2004 you should ask them .
PS , Titus , as most Conservative lackeys know , I am not a Labour one .
You certainly do your best to sound like one.............
Wasn't aware of the 2008 election, but Norwich is a backwater, so I probably wouldn't normally hear about such things.
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