East Wickham Ward By-Election - Thursday 22 JanuaryI wonder how many recounts there were. It is very worrying that the BNP could come second in somewhere like Bexley. Anyone got any insights to share?
Patricia Rose Ball (The Labour Party Candidate) - 700
Michael John Barnbrook (British National Party) - 790
Elizabeth Grace Goodlad (Liberal Democrats) - 564
Steven Frederick Hall (The Conservative Party Candidate) - 798 ELECTED
Laurence Williams (English Democrats - "Putting England First") - 128
political commentator * author * publisher * bookseller * radio presenter * blogger * Conservative candidate * former lobbyist * Jack Russell owner * West Ham United fanatic * Email iain AT iaindale DOT com
Friday, January 23, 2009
Tories On Top In Three-Way
You do have a dirty mind don't you. I'm talking about the by-election result last night in Bexley.
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This is indeed very troubling Iain.
I wonder if part of the problem is that Labour and Conservatives are neck and neck there - also the LibDems have quite a large vote.
Maybe this also though reflects continued weakness in the Tory party's ability to bring out voters in it's traditional heartlands. I do worry about the continued inability of the Conservative Party to move back to the centre ground where it needs to be. Cameron has made a start but this is visibly not always supported, as on Europe and as with the overpromotion of people like Hague and Osborne. Ken Clark should be Shadow Chancellor again, not Osborne.
When the Conservative Party centre is weakened, extremists and nutjobs step forward to fill the vacuam.
People are increasingly fed up at the "Human Rights" of Immigrants and Foreigners and Muslims and Travellers being more important than the Human Rights of the ordinary white indigenous population.
They are fed up of being emasculated by Brussels, and lied to by the mainstream politicians.
They are angry about the sleaze and corruption.
Are you really surprised that the BNP are going to gain support in these circumstances?
As the recession gets worse, expect more BNP councillors, even MPs to be elected. Oh, and riots, as in Iceland, Bulgaria, Greece, Latvia etc.
That the hard left BNP/Labour combination got two thirds of the total vote is even more worrying, I would have thought.
East Wickham is a complex area. In 2002 this ward elected (narrowly) two Labour and one Liberal Democrat councillors; the Conservatives gained all three seats in 2006 but not with a large vote share. In the GLA elections, the BNP came second to the Conservatives on the list vote (the most reliable).
My feeling is that a large part of the Conservative vote in 2006 and 2008 was not from traditional Conservative voters. Some appear to have returned to Labour, and others voted BNP, in this byelection.
The byelection was a confused affair as four parties (Conservative, BNP, Labour, Lib Dem) put in a lot of effort. The Lib Dems certainly ought not to have bothered as their claims to have been in contention were pure inventions.
Note that the winner only got 26.78% of the total vote.
Perhaps if the Tories started espousing policies that address peoples' real concerns, the BNP would not have got so much of the vote. Most who vote for the BNP might well be under the impression they are a right wing party!
Just to throw something in. Correct me if I am wrong but isn't Derek Conway the member of Parliament for the constituency with the East Wickham ward?
Just north of the ward is Thamesmead - known locally as Little Lagos. Anecdotally some 10,000 Nigerians have settled here in the past decade, fuelled by a very rich evangelical African church that reputedly paid for houses with suitcases of cash.
This has caused massive resentment locally in an area largely C2 in character - self employed builders, with his 'n hers 4x4s on the concrete blocked front gardens of their 1930s semis.
As such the BNP result is pretty much a one-off. I can't think of any other places in London where the migrant diaspora is so concentrated and would have this effect.
Take a look at the reader comments on this local newspaper story to understand the BNP's vote here:-
Even more worrying, if the 'English Democrats' had not put-up a Candidate, chances are the BNP would have walked it.
Penguin is on the money - it is anger and disillusionment with mainstream Politicians that is driving voters towards the BNP in droves, the same issues that drove the voters to Hitler in the 1930s.
The Government is so worried they have hired an American firm to solely target minimising the BNP vote across the UK in the run-up to both the Local and General Elections (another PR coup for Nick Griffin).
Unless DC gets a grip on policy and starts to at least APPEAR as if the Conservatives are addressing this anger, the BNP and UKIP will potentially soak-up enough traditionally Tory votes to ensure he loses the next GE.
It may be nepotism. The BNP candidate shares the same surname as their GLA man. Probably pulled a few strings to get them to pump resources into the seat.
Have you been to Bromley lately?
It used to be classic Tory, leafy suburbs.
Now it looks and sounds like Kosovo.
I'm no BNP'er but you can expect similar results throughout most of London. The one million illegals that the Stasi can't find aren't in Cornwall.
No insight needed.
When people vote BNP it's for one reason only. Immigration!
People are fed up with the UK Immigration Policy.
None of the major parties will address the problem. The Tories really need to layout a clear policy.
People want to hear (especially now), that immigration is kept to an absolute minimum and that efforts are made to repatriate everyone that doesn't belong.
Everyone knows since we have had mass immigration, crime has gone up, our services have gone down and civil liberties have been lost.
It's the main reason people will give you for moving to Spain.
Ignoring the subject will not make it go away and the BNP will keep gaining votes.
Why is everyone too scared to admit the truth?
The problem is that the three parties are seen as one in most area's. The greatest being the EU.
Another problem is when Tory MP's attempt a backstairs move to ensure their expenses are kept secret. That does the party no good whatsoever. (I am still waiting to hear just what Cameron will do to these discredied tories)
Immigration, which for many years has been a taboo subject in every party, bar the BNP. IS worrying many people. It will get worse as unemployment reaches higher numbers. Not one party will stop immigration. There are always caviats, sub clauses, etc etc. that the people are very sceptical about.
The only difference between the three parties ( or, really, two and a bit parties) are the leaders.
So I can well understand people turning towards the BNP - just as they turned to the UKIP at the EU elections. But they have let their people down. So I will not be suprised to see the BNP elected to the EU.
I know of many people, black friends included, who want to vote for the BNP. They say it is the only party to speak up for England!
Perhaps that is why the Labour Party are concerned about them. Their 'natural' vote is moving in increasing numbers towards the BNP.
I just hope that Cameron can realise that his party needs distinctive policies, quite different from Labour in all area's but most especially Immigration.
One rule should be WE ONLY SPEAK ENGLISH in this Country and save a fortune on printing in so many different languages.
Another would be to de select those tories who wanted a shabby deal with labour over their expenses!
One last thing I think it counter productive to call the BNP 'Nutters' 'Nutjobs' and 'extremists.
Depends what you mean by the 'migrant diaspora'. Take a look at the North London enclaves - Haringey etc as well as Brent etc. Then again - Tulse Hill, Stockwell, Norwood, Brixton, Battersea, Clapham, the People's Republic of Lambeth (as a generality) etc etc etc.
It's probably also worth comparing this with the patterns of voting for Mayor of London.
Is it that the BNP speak up on immigration? Or is it that they blame the recession on immigrants, a standard tactic of the extremist?
It is true that Britain needs to control immigration though and that needs to be clearer and tougher. Today's lamentable reports of yet more failures in the system of border controls and deportations being yet another case in point.
But the current economic conditions were not caused by immigrants. They are the result of actions by powerful banks and other financial institutions, run by and on behalf of, wealthy people.
Knowing Bromley, I'm not in the least surprised.
@ DispairingLiberal [12.00pm]
"Is it that the BNP speak up on immigration? Or is it that they blame the recession on immigrants, a standard tactic of the extremist?"
You are looking in the wrong place, my friend. The BNP have been gaining ground over several years, long before the Economy went off a cliff. If it was the issue of blaming Immigration for the economic downturn, then the BNP would only now be gaining traction with the voters.
Their success in recent times has nothing whatsoever to do with the current economic downturn, but it sure as hell is getting a boost from it.
I think time will show Faceless that their support will increase during the recession. This will be due to their policy of blaming it on immigrants. This line usually works with the less educated element of the population, as it did in previous recessions.
I blame it on the Scottish immigrants
The Big 3 Parties are all too weak to stand up to idiotic big mouths in the tabloids, and instead are shifting their stance on immigration towards the BNP's. This legitimises racist attitudes and gives these scumbags a foothold into the mainstream political arena.
While politicians continue to talk about immigrants like they aren't human beings, racism will grow and the BNP will flourish.
90% of failed asylum seekers are not deported, and the agency "responsible" for them doesn't know where they are.
A lot of people don't get this BNP thing.
People are fed up with the lies and covering up of the problems caused by immigration, not to mention the statistics on knife crime that are obfuscated for reasons of political correctness.
Until the main parties address the appalling consequences of unfettered immigration and the obnoxious social attitudes of some ethnic minorities, people will vote accordingly.
Mainstream politics in this country is limp and rudderless. They favour pragmatism over principle and have allowed the erosion of basic civil rights, with particular reference to English Nationalism, which even to me sounds like a dirty word.
I don't vote BNP, and could probably never bring myself to do so, but I fully understand why some do.
Having been at the count I can tell you there was a bundle check which altered the Tory majority from 7 to 8. There was then a full recount which produced the same result, so the result stood and the returning officer declared.
Very interesting contest and the tightest count and result I have ever been involved in. Rather than a two horse race it was a four way bare knuckle fistfight!
Yes, some immigrants behave badly or with criminal intent. Many others don't. Some cost the country money. Others don't. Some (black and asian) are not acceptable. Others (white or good looking or good footballers) are. There is no logic and no rationality to this - we are dealing with prejuduce, pure and simple.
Those of you who seriously want the Tory party to adopt this prejudice as the basis of their outlook are deluded.
You should join the BNP and stop trying to infiltrate the moderate right party.
Then we would at least know where the battle lines are drawn.
By the way this byelection was in Bexley not Bromley.
Several previous comments mention Bromley not LB Bexley
East Wickham ward is in Welling. Not a suprise at all that the BNP have done well there. The BNP had a bookshop in Welling in the early 90s which caused a lot of outrage, especially as East Wickham is also in pissing distance of the bus stop where Stephen lawrence was killed.
David Boothroyds commentary and analysis is bollocks. The simple answer is just "it's Welling"
@Despairing Liberal 12.32
The ippr (with their silly ee cummings affectation) published some decent research last year on economic contribution and country of origin.
Migrants from the US, Canada, France, Australia were all top economic contributors. Indians, Nigerians and Poles were also worth having. The biggest 'takers' were from Somalia, Pakistan, Portugal and Turkey.
Obviously within these groups are substantial differences; the NHS couldn't function without thousands of dedicated Nigerian staff, but other Nigerians amongst the estimated 3m - 5m in the UK are the nation's biggest petty fraudsters.
The harm Labour has done is not to have separated the wheat from the chaff on entry, but to open the borders to all comers. This does no favours to hard-working visible ethnic migrants who contribute positively to our economy, and tars them all with the same brush.
It's a variation on Gresham's law - bad migrants drive out good.
The reality that all parties are facing is the need to comb-out the bad migrants - the fraudsters, cheats, takers and users - whatever their colour, creed or caste. This isn't BNP racism, it's common sense.
Phil Hendren, the BNP bookshop in Welling opened in April 1989 and closed (due to planning enforcement action by Bexley council) in summer 1995. How exactly it is supposed to have had an effect on a byelection 14 years later is something you'll have to explain.
Well said, Raedwald.
Have you lived in the area for thelast decade David?
The council vote makes very little difference in too many places. By that I mean, you vote Lib/Lab/Con and Council Tax goes up regardless, Bin Collections go down. Too much of the rule making is handed down from Westminster and Brussels.
Thus, it is easy to play on peoples frustrations and garner support towards the fringes.
The solution would be to put some real control back into the hands of local councils so that people could feel the benefits of their votes in action.
"There is no logic and no rationality to this - we are dealing with prejuduce, pure and simple."
Actually I suspect it's based on crime statistics showing a higher proportion of crime amongst Afro-Carribbeans. Then of course there's the issue of Islamic fundamentalists tending to be Asian. Of course it is unfair to tar all blacks and Asians with the same brush but it does explain why people are probably more hostile to these people than say, for example, the Chinese.
@ boothroyd 11 21,what was the percentage of labours vote in the last general election?
If the bnp get more popular you have only yourselves to blame,there is hardly any difference between any party.Camerons too much like blair.We need a definate right wing party not more of the same,someone the electorate can identify with.Give us order not chaos.We have all been brainwashed with political correctness over the years and frightened to say anything "extreme".Polititians are out of touch with the electorate and there is a huge undercurrent of resentment building against them.
@OH 12 21,
Funnily enough they dont like being called that.When I lived in aberdeen then later in nth wales I was called an immigrant many times.When it was pointed out there were far more scots and welsh immigrants in england,I was told to f*& off.
It's actually quite useful to have that analysis Raedwald.
Clearly we need quotas and a points system based on that sort of information plus extremely rigourous expulsion procedures and tougher airport customs. I get weary of watching the customs on that programme "Airport" who end virtually every interview by saying "you may not enter the UK", only to let them stay "temporarily" and then the voiceover telling us that they of course vanished. God knows what our airport customs are really for nowadays. The people doing the job must be thoroughly demoralised with it.
However, note the point here - let's have a rational and planned system, not knee-jerk reactions to the BNP's racist agenda.
Its all very well demonising the BNP and running "Destroy the BNP" camapaigns.
A little market research will show a couple of things.
- a growing number white working class Labour voters see NuLab as not interested in their problems
- some but no all may feel that BNP is the only party that will get a grip on immigration. This is not racism but self preservation. They see immigrants queue jumping for housing and grabbing benefits.
- there is also support for BNP in middle and upper income groups. Some of these voters will be anti immigration and frustrated that under Lab/Con England is not the place that they grew up in. They feel alienated in the land of their birth.
Its time for politicians to stop their invective and tirades against the BNP. Voters are telling them something. Writing these voters off as rascist is wrong and ultimatley costly in terms of votes lost.
I'm surprised anyone's surprised by the near success of the BNP. Come the general Election they will do very well.
Cameron's recent statements will only assist.
Labour have a lot to fear from the BNP.
With sensible aspirational labour voters looking to Cameron's 'progressive conservatives' and conservatives anxious to skewer labour good and proper - Labour risk their vote plunging to below 30% and suffering in what they hope are safe seats.
The working class who have seen job prospects disappear thanks to mass uncontrolled and unplanned immigration will see no point to Labour.
There must be many places where the political landscape has been turned upside down by immigration
I am more worried by the fact that there are still retards out there who can vote for Labour.
and don't forget the bnp definately want out of the eu,its not all about racism.
This is what happens when peple feel ignored and let down by main stream political parties. They turn to one that might actually listen to them and horror of horrors do something to help them. My mother used to be a red hot socialist, but now she is so disillusion she said that she would vote BNP if they fielded a candidate around here.
It may be difficult to believe but to the disinterested voter there is not much difference between the Conservatives, New Labour, and the Lib Dems. They are all 'talk talk' people with their snoughts in the trough.
The BNP may be racist and unpleasant but they are seen as willing to 'do something' about important issues rather than papering over the cracks with endless reports, reviews, and dodgy statistics.
Smooth Dave Cameron may well go down well with the politically aware set, but I've argued for some time that he needs to display passion and kick some arses if he is to win long term backing for his policies.
Here is a few reasons:
1. BNP HQ used to be in Welling
2. Area largely populated by White working class families which have moved out of areas such as Bermondsey, Southwark etc
3. BNP campaigned very aggressively, many leaflets were dropped through our letterbox
4. Look at the recent London Assembly vote, the NF won 11,000 votes in Bexley and Bromley
5. Surrounding bad areas include Woolwich, Plumstead, Thamesmead, Abbeywood, Lewisham all with large non white populations while Welling is still overwhelmingly white
All 3 parties supported & still support genocide, child sex slavery & kidnapping & dissection of living humans in Kosovo, all to support the programme of Mr A Hitler. It is more than a little hypocritical of any of their members to pretend moral superiority, or indeed equality with the BNP who didn't & don't.
Why is the BNP shunned by Conservatives whilst Sinn Féin is not?
The leadership of Sinn Féin includes deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, who was a leading figure in the Provisional IRA, an organisation whose membership include those with convictions for rather more serious crimes than BNP members have even been accused of.
To be explicit, given that the Ruling Class have accepted Sinn Féin into the UK Government then why not the BNP?
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