Monday, March 17, 2008

Another Double Digit Tory Lead

Even I was slightly sceptical about yesterday's YouGov poll, which gave the Conservatives a 16 point lead. However, tomorrow's ICM poll for the Guardian shows a 13 point lead, with the Tories on 42% (up 5), Labour on 29% (down 5) and the LibDems on 21%. So the Tory lead seems to have come entirely from Labour switchers. These are the people the Tories really need to attract in the key marginals. In the past, whenever the Tories have built up a good lead, it has been eroded over the ensuing few months. Let's see if this time the party can develop a strategy to keep the switchers - and keep them for good.


Alex said...

Headline: "Labour's popularity lowest since Brown took office"?

Why stop there?

"This is the lowest Labour score since the Guardian/ICM series began in 1984."

That's more like it.

Scipio said...

duffle coat and plaster anyone?

Anonymous said...

I just left a comment on another post of yours, Iain, a moment ago, saying that I thought all the evidence of the last few days looks like a straight Labour-to-Tory switch. I have only just read this post, but obviously it's yet more evidence of that.

The LibDem share is holding up well. There has always been the risk that when the Labour vote eventually collapses (and, after 11 years in power, finally it appears to be doing that), the LibDems go with them. It seems that the LDs may well be succeeding in sidestepping that effect.

Anonymous said...

The strategy is cuts.

Ross said...

Not only is the Conservative lead enormous, you have to bear in mind that when it was huge in the 1980s that was with a powerful SDP splitting the left's support. So this is even more impressive.