Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Ten Predictions For 2010

1. Andy Murray will reach the Wimbledon final
2. The Conservatives will win the election with a majority of between 20 and 50
3. VAT will go up to 20% at some point this year
4. Britain will lose its AAA credit status
5. West Ham will not be relegated
6. Ed Miliband will replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader
7. Tom Harris will be elected to the Shadow Cabinet
8. Jeremy Paxman will leave Newsnight to take over as host of Question Time
9. Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed by either Israel or the USA
10. England reach the World Cup Final with three West Ham players in the team. Again.

39 comments:

Plato said...

10. Nope - semis at best - more likely the quarters.

Anonymous said...

well yes perhaps, except the ones concening West Ham. BTW Upton Park spelt backwards is Krap not Pu An oldie but still a goodie

JuliaM said...

Not sure about no 6. Ed Balls wants the job too badly...

Oldrightie said...

1. No.
2. More.
3. Yes
4. No
5. They will.
6. No, nor his bananas brother.
7. So?
8. Yes.
9. No, The Chinese would not be pleased.
10.No chance.

Samuel Dale said...

I find it hard to disagree with much except I don't think the Tories will get a majority

Anonymous said...

I can cope with almost all of those (4 would be bad) but number 9 gives me the shivers!

torylandlord said...

Iain, am interested in your Ed Miliband prediction. How would you see that actually manifesting itself? David and Ed standing against each other with Ed winning, or David standing aside for his younger brother?

wynfrith said...

I'm a bit worried about N0. 6, Ed Miliband is my local MP and the only thing he's ever done for me is give me a dose of Man-Flu!

Let's hope that you share Thomas Watson's* prophetic talents ;-)


*"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Alan Lyburton said...

1. Andy Murray will reach the Wimbledon final

Naw

2. The Conservatives will win the election with a majority of between 20 and 50

Agreed

3. VAT will go up to 20% at some point this year

I've got a bet on 22% VAT by December 2011

4. Britain will lose its AAA credit status

This depends on the new government. I don't think we will actually.

5. West Ham will not be relegated

Agreed

6. Ed Miliband will replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader

Hahahaha! That would be a sight to behold! I hope so, but can't see it myself!

7. Tom Harris will be elected to the Shadow Cabinet

I hope not, but I can see this happening too.

8. Jeremy Paxman will leave Newsnight to take over as host of Question Time

Naw.

9. Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed by either Israel or the USA

Israel will strike first.

10. England reach the World Cup Final with three West Ham players in the team. Again.

Naw. Quarters. Semi's if Beckham's right foot is in good working order.

Anonymous said...

I assume in 10 you meant Ex-West Ham?

Half The Story said...

Are the 3 west ham players, defoe, rio and frank?

Not a sheep said...

1. Andy Murray will reach the Wimbledon final - No, semi-final at best
2. The Conservatives will win the election with a majority of between 20 and 50 - Do you really expect an election to be held?
3. VAT will go up to 20% at some point this year - Yes
4. Britain will lose its AAA credit status - Well duh... Obvious yes.
5. West Ham will not be relegated - Yes
6. Ed Miliband will replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader - I'd rather it were Ed Balls, so much fun.
7. Tom Harris will be elected to the Shadow Cabinet - Who?
8. Jeremy Paxman will leave Newsnight to take over as host of Question Time - No, David Dimbleby enjoys it too much, especially the hand on arm contact with Harriet Harman
9. Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed by either Israel or the USA - Obama doesn't have the balls and Israel will be declared a rogue state if it does. Iran will get the bomb and Tel Aviv will be destroyed in 2010
10. England reach the World Cup Final with three West Ham players in the team. Again - Semi finals at best

JPT said...

No5 - spot on.

javelin said...

1. Andy Murray will reach the Wimbledon final

No, but may next year.

2. The Conservatives will win the election with a majority of between 20 and 50

No. I think it will be nearer 100.

3. VAT will go up to 20% at some point this year

No. I think the economy will be led by strong growth internationally, leading to inflation, higher cost of borrowing and an even bigger squeeze on the public sector than we can even imagine whilst we try to retain our AAA status.

4. Britain will lose its AAA credit status

No because public sector will be squeezed to stop this happening.

5. West Ham will not be relegated

Agreed

6. Ed Miliband will replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader

Who know they are all as bonkers as each other. Given his speeches on green issues and the climategate emails I think he will end up looking a fool.

7. Tom Harris will be elected to the Shadow Cabinet

Tom who?

8. Jeremy Paxman will leave Newsnight to take over as host of Question Time

No a show that's earlier in the evening. I think the BBC will he given a huge over haul and as one of the few genuinue clever people there will able to name his show.

9. Iranian nuclear facilities will be bombed by either Israel or the USA

Possibly Israel but not the USA, The President believes in fighting with words. He has the same bravery credentials as Gordon Brown.

10. England reach the World Cup Final with three West Ham players in the team. Again.

Possibly, but with 2 on the bench.

Jobbing Doctor said...

Which West Ham players?

There will be some in the team that wear Claret and Blue, but they will be from the Villa.

Get real, Iain!

Sandy Jamieson said...

An amendment to prediction 2 should be considered in that 6-8 days before the election date (with the Tories leading by some 10-12% in the Opinion Polls) a major terrorist incident takes place in an English City such as Bath or Canterbury. Some 300-350 people are killed.
The Government announces more draconian measures to combat terrorism but the Tories and Liberals suspecting a rat, refuse to support them. Labour spends the last week of the election campaign claiming the Tories are soft on terrorism and scrapes in with a majority of 20.
Unlikely? Think on this- How many of us have a residual suspicion that Labour arranged for its friends in the Security Services to deal with David Kelly

The Gipper said...

2. The Conservatives will win the election with a majority of between 20 and 50
3. VAT will go up to 20% at some point this year

Iain, come on... These are hardly predictions. And "between 20 and 50", that's hardly going out on a limb. You've given yourself a great deal of elbow room there...

Maverick Muezzin said...

I await the genuine predictions for 2010. These surely can't be them?!

Inteligence Insider said...

"Tom Harris will be elected to the Shadow Cabinet"

Is that before or after the election Iain?

David said...

Hmmm

I think personally it will be a minority Conservative government or a Conservative win with a single figure majority.

VAT i say will go up but to about 18.5 or 19%

Ed Miliband?? I dont think so, Alan Johnson will be the next Labour leader.

I agree with you on Tom Harris.

AAA Credit rating- depends on who wins the election.

Dr Evadne said...

No.6 - You shouldn't say things like that even in jest.

Shinsei said...

Can you really see the Labour Party voting for a 40 year old Oxford educated posh-looking policy wonk when both the Tories and the Lib Dems have 42 year old Oxbridge educated posh-looking policy wonks leading them ?

Oxbridge Prat said...

#6 almost right. Alan Johnson will be the next Labour leader, but only as an interim, and will be replaced by Ed Miliband.

In more detail, Cameron will win, but only narrowly, and Gordon will declare this a success and refuse to resign. He will be brought down and Alan Johnson installed as a caretaker. The subsequent battle will be Ed Miliband vs Ed Balls, with David M standing aside.

Prodicus said...

Reckon you've a pretty good chance of a 100 per cent failure with that list, Iain.

Try Melanchthon's list on Centre Right. Much more likely, all of it.

Anonymous said...

Iain, I recall that last year you said that the Independent would fold in 2009.

Iain Dale said...

Anonymous, you recall correctly. Predictions are just that. Predictions. Some you get right, some you get wrong. I am glad I got that one wrong. But I wouldn't rule it out in 2010.

Jeremy Jacobs said...

Israel to save the West again Iain? Remember Osirek, June 1981.
I've had two phone calls about my number 5 prophecy

Sigh said...

1. yup
2. Nope - hung parliament with the lib dems propping up a tory gov.
3. yup
4. Nope
5. Yup
6. Nope - The banana man will get the job.
7. Yup
8. Yup - but will he allow anyone else to talk that is the question.
9. Israel will. Obama is to weak the do anything - plus he wouldn't want to hand back the nobel.
10. I wish.

Anonymous said...

4. AAA Credit rating
We cannot lose it by definition, because most of the government debt is in sterling and the government can simply print more money to cover the debt without actually defaulting on it. The government will never default on sterling debt.
The pound will carry on devaluing (except against USD as they are also printing money) and we will all be much poorer for it. Thank you old labour.

sarah said...

1. No
2. Yes
3. No
4. No
5. Lmfao - definitely NO.
6. ? Surely Johnson?
7. Who feckin' cares?
8. No
9. No
10. The daftest of the lot. NO!!!

dazmando said...

I so hope the first and last opints come true. /od I love sport

Anonymous said...

10. Iain I really don't mean to be unkind but can you confirm if you mean in the team (starting 11) or in the England squad, because, no offence, apart from Upson, your relegation-fodder (yes, you're wrong on 5, sorry) Hammers ain't getting near South Africa, let alone the final.

Iain Dale said...

Green, Cole and Parker, as well as Upson. Not beyond fantasy, is it?

Paddy Briggs said...

What or who or where is "West Ham" ?

Paul Robinson said...

I would say West Ham to be relegated along with Portsmouth and Bolton..... meaning of course that Hull will not!

The King of Wrong said...

Interesting predictions... here are mine. Not so much of a Hammers emphasis, but a couple of stretching targets in there.

Hermeneuticals said...

#1 - a stretch but possible
#2 - thats not a predicition, more of a certainty
#3 - Sad but Tim Montgomerie wants it so it looks like it will happen.
#4 - maybe
#5 - will Mark Hughes go to Bolton?
#6 - what about Baroness Ashton
#7 - good prediction
#8 - lower ratings, Sky News should take it over
#9 - same answer as #2
#10 - Now your from Mars Iain. If West Ham cant beat Liverpool (1/2 of Spain) how will their Englishmen stop the whole Spanish train. Only WHU in WC squad will be Upson & Green; only Upson wins a cap.

ilona@israel said...

i am curious about prediction #9. was it made before this story with protestors? and why did you except the possibility of overthrown of ahmadinejad or- also possible, russia will provide them usranium with the huge delay...or never provide it (the story with s-300).

Maroussia said...

It will be great to watch World Cup 2010 - Semi-Finals: A, i have bought tickets from TicketFront.com looking forward to it.