Adam Boulton has just given himself 6 out of 10 for his 2009 predictions, which he made at the turn of the year. This prompted me to revisit the predictions I made a year ago.
1. There won't be an election.
CORRECT
2. Unemployment will top 3 million by the end of the year.
INCORRECT
3. Damian Green will not face charges.
CORRECT
4. Ed Balls will be Chancellor by the end of the year.
INCORRECT
5. Ken Clarke will join the Shadow Cabinet. David Davis won't.
CORRECT
6. The Independent will go out of business.
INCORRECT (a year too early)
7. There will be a second massive recapitalisation of the banks.
CORRECT
8. Lynne Featherstone will be promoted to a major job on the LibDem front bench.
INCORRECT
9. Jonathan Ross will leave the BBC.
INCORRECT
10. The economic growth rate will be three times worse than the Treasury has predicted.
IT'S WORSE, BUT I AM NOT SURE IF IT IS 3 TIMES WORSE
So that's 4 or 5 out of ten. Not as good as 2008, when I think I got 7. Collect your refund on the way out...
7 comments:
I'd give you 'correct' to 2 and 10; don't believe any government numbers now.
Those were actually not bad predictions, Iain. Even where you go them wrong, what I suspect you got wrong is when, not whether, they happen.
The Independent is pretty much vanity publishing these days.
Maybe Wossy is still at the Beeb but he's a tad lighter in the wallet for it!
They were all fair enough predictions except the fourth one. There was, and is, no way, Gordon Brown could ever make Ed Balls Chancellor without triggering a coup against his own leadership. Fortunately for him, Brown realised this at the very last minute last May.
There are still 8 days to go - you never know!
On Q's 2 and 10, it depends on how you run the figures. Personally I think you are probably right on 2 and not far off on 10, possibly right if you take a rigorous look at government debt. On 2 there has been a lot of fiddling with figures in recent years.
Looks like you missed #9 by a week: http://www.metro.co.uk/home/808124-jonathan-ross-quits-bbc
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