Miliband's article in The Guardian has provoked much speculation about his motivations. Before you read the rest of this blogpost, pop over to CommentIs Free and read the article for yourself. The Times interprets this article as an overt challenge to Gordon Brown. Many other pundits are also drawing similar conclusions. I'm not so sure.
Some time ago, Miliband announced he would be making a series of speeches this summer on what the Labour Party needed to do to win a fourth election. This article, presumably, is part of that initative.
It's also the article that Gordon Brown needed to write but can't. It articulates a vision for the Labour Party which is missing from Brown's narrative. It also critiques the Conservatives in a way which Brown fails to. If I were a Labour Party member reading this, I'd be thinking that it's a pretty compelling piece. But I genuinely do not believe it has the motives which The Times and others are ascribing to it. Miliband believes in a new kind of politics and sees no reason why he shouldn't articulate it. Possibly naive, but there are worse faults in a politician.
However, the side effects are clear. It keeps the Labour leadership story going for another day or two and gives encouragement - however unintended - to those who are looking to topple Gordon Brown.
But I stick to my prediction. It won't happen.
UPDATE: Curly reckons Mr M has a recognition problem in his own contituency.
UPDATE: I have written an article for CommentIsFree warning David Miliband not to underestimate David Cameron.
UPDATE: Dizzy has an extended piece which predicts a long, painful and slow political death for the Prime Minister...
"The electorate should be, I'd say, prepared to watch a very long, slow and painful death for the next two years. It will be like a Grand National horse falling at the first, breaking a leg, refusing to give up, whilst the stewards have a sudden moment of compassion and refuse to put it out its misery as it limps around Aintree."