At midnight tonight do I...
a) Watch coverage of the Glasgow East by election on Sky News
b) Watch West Ham play MLS All Stars on Setanta Sports
c) Go to bed
My SNP friends have been very quiet today. Either they think they are going to lose or they are too busy knocking up. A couple of journalists I talk to reckon they might still pull it off. If they do, I wonder what the consequences will be for our beloved PM. Nothing serious, I hope.
I reckon Labour wil probably hold it by a whisker. The campaigning has been neither out of this world or catastrophically blundered by either party. Alex Salmond has worked very hard, the SNP candidate appears dull but worthy and Margaret Curran has been working hard, undoubtedly prompted by the prospect of losing her Holyrood seat due to boundary changes! The swing will be most interesting, as will the implications for other seats.
I hope I am proven wrong, but the core vote is probably tribal Labour, handed down from generation to generation with the football club allegiance and a host of other prejudices reinforced by a lack of education....the same sort of mindset that drives people to the BNP. This sort of constituency will be all that is left of Labour after 2010....they'll be scrabbling for the deprived white reactionary vote with the BNP. Like I said, I do hope I am proven wrong and the SNP break through, but it will be close whatever the outcome.
Look if voting ended at 7pm as I have suggested numerous times then we could all be sat on the edge of our seats. I don't think people realise how expensive democracy is. See Conferences (Policing cost of)
freedom to prosper
I suspect the turn out will have been low enough for there to be a result before midnight.
As for the election, I'd prefer a victory of anyone over Labour, the people of Glasgow East deserve better, but I'm pessimistic. I think Labour will hold onto it :(
never thought i'd support labour (well i guess in 2005 as well) but really hope the SNP lose this.
the thought of salmon using this as an endorsement of him or of independence is ghastly. i note labour have been camaigning on local issues so hopefully that negates gordo and his bad karma.
o/t but can someone please investigate edf, british energy, gordon brown and his brother please?
ps. watch the football!
go to bed. I don't usually do election predictions, but Labour wil have it by not much, possibly after a recount, Curran is much more "in" than Tamsin Dunwoody ever was.
SNP by a tiny majority, maybe 500 or 600. You read it here first. Stay up.
Molar my ...... .I'm sure Major was as loyal to MT as he was to his wife.
Too close to call? Labour "in a panic"
Over on Tom Harris's blog, the majority of punters are going for a narrow Labour hold.
The trouble is, if Labour does hold Glasgow East, by even 1 vote, they will be talking it up as a resounding victory.
It just is not feasible for the SNP to win this. They will do well, but not that well. I am afraid, dear friends, that it means two more years of Gordon. How depressing.
Importantly... Watch the Scottish dead tree press. They are Labour toadies to a man. Their "interpretation" of the result will be interesting. Also, forget what Labour say, the Scottish BBC will also talk down an SNP gain in share of the vote, and talk up anything other than a Labour hold of less than 1000.
Result: Labour hold Glasgow East with less than 1000. MSM say Labour has bounced back.
d)Watch the coverage of the Glasgow East by election on BBC Newsnight Scotland.
Looking closer by the minute Betfair odds on SNP down to about 2/1 & beeb saying possibly only a few hundred votes in it!!!
Brown won't take the hint if they lose. And it looks like nobody in Labour has got the guts to force the issue.
I kind of think they'll hold on - politics is still tribal in Scotland.
turnout approx 46% (down from 48% at the GE), result expected about 00:30 - 02:00 hours
I'm going to put my hat in the ring and say the SNP will get it by a slim margin. I haven't been following this election, but it seems that on the grapevine people are talking up Salmond's lot's chances tonight.
If the SNP get in things will be very, very messy.
bbc commentator: his feeling now, having spoken to labour peeps, is that they don't now expect to win the seat...
bbc reporter at the count: lib dems are resigned to 4th place
Stay up Iain! Looks like Labour are about to get a kicking from the good folk of Glasgow East.
gah i wish it was possible to edit posts. i mis-heard, the turnout is 42.25%
ahh 'tis funny watching Dougie Alexander trying to defend Gordon Brown in the face of quite robust questioning (for once!) from whoever the BBC guy is (i can't remember).
Labour majority in Glasgow east is GREATER than the the Tory majority in their number one safest seat, Kensington and Chelsea.
Imagine Chelsea not returning a Tory MP.
It is so far beyond imagination that it is impossible to consider.
People who's local grocer shop is Harrods and who have their own private John Lewis [Peter Jones] become so disgruntled that they all vote Lib Dem.
It is inconceivable.
Yet in Labour Party terms this looks like exactly what is happening in Glasgow East.
As we blogged yesterday http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/
OK - I may have got the Labour holding on bit wrong.
Lets see if Labour have anyone willing to use the knife. ( The money would have to be on Big Ears as he has form ).
The way it is going you could have watched West Ham while they fiddle about filling the screen with Labour morons telling us they will win the next GE.
Somehow you can actually see the disconnection between what they clearly SEE with their own eyes, and the tosh they spout at the same time.
What they will win at the next GE, with or without the Brown terror, is a massive wooden spoon.
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