An ICM poll in tomorrow's News of the World shows that David Cameron is still a way ahead of Gordon Brown as the voter's choice of future Prime Minister.
Cameron has a five-point lead over Mr Brown (42%-37%), but this is less than the advantage the Tories enjoy over Labour under Tony Blair. It's the first time this has been the case so far as I am aware. Cameron has a healthy advantage in the South East (16%) and the Midlands
(12%) and among the 25- to 34-years-olds (4%) and over-55s (9%) as well as a small 4% lead in Wales and the South West.
Gordon Brown is, however, 28 points ahead in Scotland and one point ahead in the North of England. He also has the backing of 18- to 24-year-olds by 44% to 38% while the remaining age group - those aged 45 to 54 - are split evenly between the two.
I assume this is a poll "without the LibDems" so is not comparable with voting intention polls as you try to do.
These polls are largely meaningless at the moment. It's what they say after a year or two of a Brown government that will really matter.
Brown ahead in Scotland? Did they first qualify their targets to make sure they were Labour supporters? I have had very few people with a good word to say for Broon up here in Scotland.
Now who is it that owns the New of the World ?
I'm enjoying Brown's unpopularity in the Midlands.
Wot no shaggability data? Poor show.
replay the bogie tape, his ratings will drop like a stone...
Anyone who votes for Gordon Brown will get what he deserves.
Iain, Mike Smithson says the poll is a bolted on one, not weighted, out of line with ICM's most recent finding and therefore absolutely worthless:
"The ICM poll results look as though the questions were bolted on to the firms regular omnibus surveys where no efforts is made to ensure a politically balanced sample. So it cannot be compared in any way with findings where a voting intention question is put.
It is totally out of line with other ICM findings and Friday’s YouGov survey.
Given the timing it will have a big political impact"
Murdoch trying to prop up Broon again
Talking of Blair-Broon, Iain, I wonder if you might consider having a message board for Blair where all of us could say farewell to him and make our contribution to his legacy? I would love to have a place to vent my spleen on that lying, evil, warmongering crook before he toddles off on his perpetual hols, leaving all of us to fix the huge damage he's done to our country.
As for these polls, they're just like everything else in so****g Blairdom - bloody crooked.
Auntie Flo' - The concert's not over 'til the fat lady sings and we haven't heard a peep out of Big Mouth.
My own feeling is, Blair will stand down as leader of the Labour Party but will cling onto power as prime minister by his fingernails. The man is utterly mad.
But what about Wales in general, Iain? Pls say!
Let's forget the politics and football for a moment.
I've been on diet since January, so what I want to hear about is the burger you had last week...
Screw opinion polls, I want to hear about pepper sauce!
There's a bit of a worry that some of our notable (and venerable)Conservative characters are displaying signs of growing double (and treble) chins. Hope you don't go this way Iain. Lay off the burgers, follow the LibDem's example and start playing football - rather that talking about it and get mowing that grass!
But Boy Dave's main rally cry is "Life under us for normal English people will be slightly less awful than under NuLabour".
ted phoan - Did someone call you urgently and ask for diet advice for a stranger?
You write: "Lay off the burgers, follow the LibDem's example and start playing football - rather that talking about it and get mowing that grass!"
Hello? Did someone appoint you diet/exercise expert to the stars? Does anyone pay you for your advice, or is it always free?
Hey! Ted! Lay off the fathead-inducing, ego-calorie-laden uninvited platitudes and try - my advice, free of charge, just like yours - try to start a popular blog!!!
Stop trying to consume so many brain calories and try to become a national political figure!!!
The leadership contest isn't half as interesting as the deputy leader contest. Have you checked out Hazel's latest range of fashion accessories in the Online Campaign Shop?
Click here and scroll down.
If you go to electorial calculus you'll see that it is thought that at a snap election the tories will be 11 short of a majority. As opposed to 1 short of a majority. Looks like a pact with Ming Campbel...
'Gordon Brown is, however, 28 points ahead in Scotland...'
Even so, both the Sunday Herald and Scotland on Sunday have come out this morning in favour of an SNP-led government in Scotland post 3 May. We live in interesting times!
I fear that northerners see Cameron as a soft southern jessie, a belief reinforced by interviews on last week's Politics Show. He might be more popular with young educated urban voters but they seem to be the group least likely to vote.
If the experience of the French in recent years is anything to go by the BNP will increase their vote to a point when two things will happen. People who avoid voting will turn out to stop them, and mainstream parties will start taking BNP policies on board to get some of their votes.
Seeing as Brown seems to be about as popular as herpes one wonders why Murdoch is so keen to back him. Someone with that much business sense wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.
I fear that northerners see Cameron as a soft southern jessie,
No. They see him as insincere, lightweight, and a holographic version of Blair.
They see him as more fussed with designer labels and media bullsh@t than real issues, real people....and frankly they think the shambles has gone on too long and is too deep for little boys like Cameron and Letwin to get their hands dirty cleaning up the sh@t....so we will just get another cycle of spin
Iain. Auntie Flo's idea of a "tribute" post for the master of ambiguity, allowing comment,is I believe an excellent one.
Could we then have a vote as to who might gift wrap and deliver these "wishes" please?
The latest spin strategy from Blair-Broon and nulab appears to be making a show of - apparent -breast beating, hair shirt wearing and frantic apologising.
Dear me, says Blair, my decade long policy of regeneration of run down areas, as the means of dealing with anti-social behaviour, was misguided.
Dear me, says Liam Byrne, our of control immigration is becoming a bit bothersome for the electorate.
Dear me, says Mr Broon, the May local elections will be passing a verdict on "all of us", not just Tony Blair.
Well, dear me, nulabbers, don't waste your breath trying to throw off your crooked, spin and sleaze crazed image by cloaking yourselves in this phoney aura of, almost priestly, honesty and respectability.
Been there (for 10 years), worn the hair shirts you forced on us (for 10 years) and know you crooks through and through. The majority of the electorate are far too savvy now - thanks to your phoney educashun, educashun, educashun, nulabbers - to swallow your phoney confessions or any other c**p from you.
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