There just comes a point where you say, 'I can't go on lying', you can't go on saying 'I think Gordon Brown is the man to lead us to victory' when you don't believe it.Strong stuff. A commenter has helpfully provided this list of Ministers of State.
Jim Knight MP
John Healey MP
Pat McFadden MP
Malcolm Wicks MP
Rt Hon Bob Ainsworth MP
Rt Hon the Lord Rooker
Phil Woolas MP
Jim Murphy MP
Dr Kim Howells MP
Ben Bradshaw MP
Rt Hon Tony McNulty MP
Liam Byrne MP
Bill Rammell MP
Ian Pearson, MP
Rt Hon David Hanson MP
Michael Wills MP
Paul Goggins MP
David Cairns MP
Rt Hon Stephen Timms MP
Mike O'Brien QC MP
I have to say I have no information as to who this Minister of State is, but my top four guesses would be Pat McFadden (dyed in the wool Blairite), Kim Howells (a bit too outspoken for his own good), Jeff Rooker (ditto) and Stephen Timms (very hurt by his demotion from the Cabinet when Brown took over).
There's little doubt that is a Minister of State resigned, it is far more serious than the resignation of a junior whip. Even Number Ten would find it difficult to brush off. The question is, would it encourage others to follow suit?
UPDATE: The Telegraph has fingered David Cairns.
67 comments:
Aren't there more important things to worry about Iain?
Maybe you should exploit the 'wisdom of crowds' by putting it to the vote via a quick straw 'web poll'...
Are you taking the Michael?
Interesting news this, it will be a hammer blow to Gordon if one of these twenty or so goes!
All four of your picks have great potential or motive to be hacked off!
I think it could be either Malcolm Wicks MP because he keeps popping up on TV to defend Brown's dumb Enegy gimmicks (Sole distroying) or Ben Bradshaw MP because he has struck me as a Blairite and his seat might be savable if the Tories sneak a bare majority instead of a Landslide.
The last figure I can think of is Rt Hon Tony McNulty MP, who has a very marginal seat and keeps having to field Questions on Brown's leadership when defending Home office data loss! Indeed McNulty is probably the most likely to speak out as his seat is marginal, he is a regular media performer and a change of leadership is his last chance in retaining Harrow East. Maybe he figures a stand now could clear the way to 2012 Labour Mayor candidacy
Highly unlikely to be O'Brien.
Has somebody found a bit of backbone at last?
McFadden is my instinct too. I think the most damaging one would be Liam Byrne.
Well it's probably not Pat McFadden if he died in the wool (or anywhere else). It could be any other dyed in the wool Blairite, I suppose.
Good point Jeremy.
All we're worrying about is the entire future direction of the politics of our country. Why all the concern?
Surely the obvious person in the list of Ministers of State is Siobhain McDonagh's former researcher?
I would also expect the MP who was her Agent before coming into parliament to break cover soon.
Really this rebellion is just the pals of the McDonagh sisters, plus Jack Straw's "mates" in both senses of the word (allegedly).
Jeremy Jacobs,
If you are refering to the US Investment Bank collapse, look at it another way. In times of strife a country needs solid leadership - the only solid Brown offers is associated with his name and it is endless!
Get shot of Brown and things might well substantially improve.
It's not McNutjob. He hasn't got the balls.
It's unfair to hold David Hanson to ransom in this way.
I hope its Goggins !! What a brilliant name!!!
I believe this is probably all part of the game, think of it this way: you want to get attention for your cause (Leadership Change), what's the best way of doing this? Provide a talking point for the Journo's to talk about!
This ripples out to the wider chattering classes - Bit like who shot JR in Dallas!
I predicted on another website the likely Drip - Drip of people coming forward over the weekend. Surely this is the next stage and the said Minister of State is just hours away from departure.
If we can predict the next steps if this develops, other ministers of state start dropping away.
Surely if we cut to the chase then Cabinet Ministers go and a truimphite goes to visit Brown = End Game.
As pointed out by Anonymous 9.51, David Cairns would be a good bet. Him or Bradshaw.
Does David Hanson do much media though? It has got to be a media performer in my opinion.
DH are preparing the briefings for a new minister.
Could be normal updating, or taxi for Ivan?
David Cairns and Malcolm Wicks.
And the nation goes 'who?'
anon: September 15, 2008 10:12 PM
That would be Ben Bradshaw then?
Anon @ 9.51
Is that you Damian?
Do you want to rephrase your title?
Another list to finish your day off. At least this one has some meaning although not much. If you do not know don't say.
On the day that the financial markets are rocked to their foundation your choice of posts is surprising.
Speculate if Cameron will go for a recall of parliament.
We don't need lists!
Bradshaw is the only male Minister of State there:
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Aboutus/MinistersandDepartmentLeaders/Ministers/index.htm
Howard, why dont you go and write your own f****** blog if you are so dissatisfied with this one. Jesus.
john healy
Temper temper Iain. Speaks volumes. Obviously my comments and those of others are getting to you.
No, I am just fed up with idiots who seem to have lost the power to scroll down.
Ivan Lewis, egged on by Alan Johnson.
Iain you are now in breach of your own rules in swearing replying to Howard. Give yourself a yellow card.
But Howard seems to miss the point that blogs must not follow the herd. If you want to read about Lehman Bros go anywhere.
I heard the BBC news story then looked here looking for some ideas and found them
Thanks Iain.
Of course Iain we are all idiots. Nothing like insulting people.
I like your blog but seriously you need to take criticism on board and stop throwing insults at people who support it.
Howard,
:abbour seem doomed - DOOMED! The markets will be what the markets will be! Interestingly as you talk about markets and particularly money markets. The thing they like least is instability, political instability being the major area that can depress markets at any time. At times of market stress they can cause additional pressure to UK financial markets.
It is therefore vital that Brown is removed and an interim PM before an imminent GE is induced. A new Conservative Government in this country could help revive confidence that Labour seem to have neglegently thrown away.
Hey, Howard, go watch Newsnight, right now. Paul Mason is gleefully reporting the demise of capitalism & the end of economics as we currently understand it. Enjoy...
Howard, I do take on board constructive criticism, but a perpetual whinge about lists is hardly that.
I dont know whether it was you or someone else who complained that I should be commentating on Lehman. I haven't because I don't feel qualified. I don't like writing bog posts just for the sake of it. What's the point of writing a blogpost when you have nothing to say?
Anonymous - September 15, 2008 10:36 PM:
You may hit on a point that a Cabinet Minister in a concerted ambush on Brown may be pushing one of their underlings to jump. Get another Cabinet minister to show their hand and challange Brown or get him removed. Then sweep in and look blameless, indeed the Minister of State may not be even in there sphere or Department.
I must admit I am a fan of your blog Iain. A tory blog, but a fair one!
My bet would be Bill Rammell. Quite Blairite and the most marginal seat I suspect. Even McNulty's seat is safer, and he seems like a loyal trooper for Gordon
I really can't see it being Timms.
No way it's going to be Timms - no backbone!
Incidentally, Timms' measure of how successful an area is economically is the number of Starbucks on the high street.
Howard,
On the Economics front, the government has the wrong policies anyway. If the B of E was not Independent, the government could cut interest rates and put up taxes like the Thatcher government did in 1981.
The putting up of Taxes would mean that the public fiances would be less stressed and Government borrowing if required would be at lower Gilt rates. Meanwhile Lower interest rates would help revive Bank margins and the difference between Base rates + Margin and the existing consumer interest rates, could be passed on to individuals offsetting higher taxes. Splitting the proceeds of interest rate cuts in other words!
I do not know what the Tories will do in government, what is clear is the Labour party have made a stinking mess and much of the last year has been used by Brown to waste money on gimmicks to try and curry favour with people. Ultimatly Brown has failed both in gaining popularity and in executing comptent government.
It's a political blog. I come here for the inside scoop inside Westminster, to keep on track on things in political blogdom, and the occasional piece of self-indulgent abba-induced frivolty.
That's what blogs are for. Not to be the all seeing eye on life, the universe and all things to all men and women.
First rule of marketing, know your market, serve it and be prepared to turn away people who don't like what you are offering.
John Coburn said...
My bet would be Bill Rammell. Quite Blairite and the most marginal seat I suspect.
Rammell would never resign, he's never shown that sort of courage, he'll let all the others do it for him. Anyway, old Bill's too deep in the throes of trying to convince us, his constituents, to vote him in again to do anything so rash.
Isn't this 'momentum'. Every day brings a bit more and a bit more. Chip, chip, chip.
It doesn't suit me. I am feeling very vindictive about this useless git brown. I want to see him totally humiliated. I know I know it's childish, but really what can you say about the man. His serial incompetency. His vanity. His bullying. And above all his essential deceitfulness.
Points from all sides have now been made. Time to move on.
Ouch, Clegg falling to bits on Newsnight.
LOOOooooooooooooooOOOOL
Nick Clegg on Newsnight, absolutly dreadful! He does not know what he is talking about! At least Charles Kennedy had an excuse for not knowing the details - Clegg is just peddling uncosted spending plans, that ironically are not even popular with his party!
He is out of his depth and is lucky Paxo was soft on him rather than giving him a good going over! Maybe the BBC have advised their "frontline" staff to be soft on the LD's as well as Labour?
it won't be a Labour one from Scotland
they are so terrified by the SNP they are now politicial eunuchs
"Let's Finger the Minister of State."
Is this some sort of party game in Westminster?
Labour would be better getting Glenrothes over with and dusted
they are going to lose it in Scotland anyway but they are utterly paralysed there about saying anything about Brown
Rumour has it cross party move of the writ as soon as parliament comes back SNP MP plus one brave other :-)
So they get rid of Gordoan and have a by election at the same time -- perfect storm
I'm guessing John Healey
Your list fails to include Lord Jones, formerly of the CBI, who is I think still a Minister of State? Might it not be him, and being hyped up by anti-Brownites? Not much of a story, obviously, as he is not a member of the Party but perhaps he will go out with a blaze attacking Brown.
If not, I agree Timms is quite a strong possibility. Imagine being No2 at the Treasury with a seat in the Cabinet and then when your boss the Chancellor becomes PM he downgrades you. And then you see the "good work" you think you did on the economy being messed up by serial incompetents/incompetence.
Will you be offering a prize for whoever is right, Iain?
I'm going to go for Tony McNulty... the quote sounds suitably brusque.
If not him, then my second guess would be Howells.
Liam Byrne has lied every day of his ministerial life about immigration so it wont be him. in fact i cant think of a single Labour minister who would tired of lying.....its all they have ever done
I love the combination of the mundane & the mad that forms the name Paul Goggins.
David Cairns named in the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/2966520/Gordon-Brown-leadership-crisis-Minister-set-to-resign.html
Iain, your slowness is getting embarrassing. Everyone else knew about this last night.
Anonymous, what on earth are you talking about? I posted this at 9.10pm last night, 30 minutes after the BBC posted their story.
David who?
Londoner said... September 15, 2008 11:58 PM:
Comrade Digby has announced his intention to quit the Government already! He has also refused to take the Labour party Whip or become a Labour party member. I think it unlikely a GOAT will resign from his Job over this - the person said they were woried about Labour's future. A GOAT will not be bothered about Labour being put out to Grass permeantly as the GOATS tend to be in the LORDS and do not face elecetion.
Flood cometh.
"The BBC reported a senior, but unnamed, minister of state said there would come a point when he could not continue to lie about his feelings for the Prime Minister."
OOhh Err, Missus !!
Well, it seems as if it's David Cairns, but it could have been almost any of them, with the exceptions of Michael Wills and John Healey. For the record my money would have been on McNulty - not one of the obvious Blairites but someone who always seems to be on the radio having to defend the indefensible and is probably getting heartily sick of it.
Re Howard, I actually think this is one of the more useful lists Iain has produced lately.
Meanwhile the Scotsman is speculating that your glamorous fellow UEA alumnus Caroline Flint will emerge as the stalking horse.
Caroline Flint as a Stalking Horse!
Crikey! She has the looks and a certain appeal but, when she opens har mouth she blows it!
Let's finger Iain Dale.
Here's the list sorted alphabetically, and with majorities :
Bob Ainsworth - 14,222
Ben Bradshaw - 7665
Liam Byrne - 5449
David Cairns - 11,259
Paul Goggins - 10,827
David Hanson - 6644
John Healey - 15,056
Kim Howells - 13,191
Jim Knight - 1812
Pat McFadden - 10,495
Tony McNulty - 4730
Jim Murphy - 6657
Mike O'Brien - 7553
Ian Pearson - 4244
Bill Rammell - 97
Lord Rooker
Stephen Timms - 13,155
Malcolm Wicks - 13,888
Michael Wills - 2571
Phil Woolas - 3590
People like Rammell know the game is up, so their interests probably lie in keeping Brown limping on until 2010. The rebels are more likely to be people with 10,000 majorities, who thought they had a job for life but now look like they could be out on their ear. They might think that a change now to Millipede might dig the party out of the hole just enough that only those with say 9000 majorities lose their seats. Look at McDonagh - majority of nearly 13,000.
And just looking through the voting records of that lot, one name stands out - only John Healey has consistently voted against ID cards and top-up fees. So he's the obvious candidate IMO.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/john_healey/wentworth
Oh - on Cairns, Nick Robinson says :
A source close to the Scottish Secretary Des Browne has insisted that David Cairns, Minister of State at the Scotland Office, has "no intention of resigning".
As Ben is one of the finest Labour MPs - soon to be promoted to the cabinet - it would be surprising if he was to resign. Nevertheless, he should not only resign but stand for the leadership. He would be the first openly gay PM and provide the all important Palin effect to the Labour Party.
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