Saturday, September 20, 2008

Tories Set for 146 Seat Majority Says Marginals Poll

PoliticsHome has published a YouGov poll in 238 marginal constituencies. It shows that the Conservatives are heading for a massive majority, as they take seats off both Labour and the LibDems. The poll was actually carried out in late July but more than 37,500 voter interviews were carried out, which makes it the largest of its kind. According to the poll the Conservatives would end up on 398 seats with Labour on 160 and the LibDems down to 44.

However, ComRes has a poll for the Independent on Sunday with the Conservatives down to 39% with Labour on 27% and the LibDems on 21%. This is the second poll in a row which shows the LibDems at 20% or over, and their rise in support is entirely at the expense of the Conservatives. There is an obvious conclusion to be drawn: Conservative inclined voters like the LibDem message on tax cuts. There's a simple way for the Conservatives to reverse this minor haemmorage in support.

Anyway, back to the marginals poll. It really is incredibly comprehensive. Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report explains HERE how it was conducted. You can download the 34 page report HERE. There are individual consituency reports available, but you have to pay for those - although rather unhelpfully it doesn't say how much.

11 comments:

Diablo said...

J K Rowling writes:

"As result of this poll I'm giving Gordon another £10million. 'Whatever it takes', that's my motto. That'll keep all those two year-olds in their free nursery places so their single mothers are free to sit all day in Starbucks writing the next Gordy Snotter blockbuster without being distracted by the little darlings."

roll on 2010 said...

hope so - labour are finished but i really hope the libertwat dummiecrats get hammered in the next election - beards, horn rimmed glasses and flipflops belong back in the 1970's. When I think of the dummiecrats they always remind me of the viz comic strip - "the modern parents" (for those who are old enough to remember)

Andrew K said...

A pedant writes: That would be "haemorrhage"

Martin Day said...

I feel cheated by this poll - It is not bad enough for the LD's!!! The Labour party are doomed anyway but I blame the LD's for supporting Labour and letting them get away with all sorts of dodgy stuff.

They need to be wiped out and sent packing in a Yellow Taxi!

LD LD LD - Out Out Out!!!

Anonymous said...

Have you seen the Scotland results? It's over...

Anonymous said...

The Conservatives are doing very well considering they have not offered any in particular yet.

Anonymous said...

roll on 2010 said @12.16 - 'the modern parents' strip still appears in viz but not every issue.

Brit_in_Aussie said...

In other words: "if you don't live in a marginal constituency, don't bother voting because nobody could give a shit"

Who's going to bet whether Ian will be carrying his campaign on for fixed Parliamentary terms if and when a Tory Government is elected?

Chris Paul said...

This'll be why the spread betting is still on 50 seats or so. 20 months to go, don't you know. big adverse Tory stories about to break. Hee heee, ho ho.

neil craig said...

From my experience in the LibDems & being expelled because calling for tax cuts was "illiberal" & "to right wing" to even be discussed I can say with certainty that Mr Clegg could not have done this if they hadn't had overwhelming evidence from their focus groups that this is what the public wants. Mr Cameron take note.

The same experience, plus seeing them go back on their mahifesto pledge of a referendum on the constitreaty leads me to believe they won't do it if the get the chance.

Robert said...

How about a real shift in policy to give the Conservative Party a boost at the polls. A double whammy of tax cuts and withdrawl from Europe to finance them. Whoops sorry wrong party policy, musn't upset Ken and Hezza.