Friday, September 26, 2008

You Know Things Are Desperate When...

HARRIET Harman is the new favourite with the bookmakers to replace Gordon Brown as the next leader of the Labour Party, according to Ladbrokes this morning. She has replaced Foreign Secretary David Miliband at the head of Ladbrokes' betting. Harman, who re-built her career after being sacked from Tony Blair's first cabinet, is now 3/1 from 5/1 with Miliband out to 7/2 from 2/1.

3/1 Harriet Harman
7/2 David Miliband
5/1 Jack Straw
8/1 Jon Cruddas
8/1 Alan Johnson
12/1 James Purnell
12/1 John Denham
16/1 Alan Milburn
16/1 Ed Balls
16/1 John Reid
20/1 Andy Burnham
20/1 Ed Miliband
25/1 Caroline Flint
25/1 John Hutton
25/1 Yvette Cooper

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

I see Ladbrokes haven't taken your bait - or indeed Fraser Nelson's on QT last night - that the Queen of Salford is a serious contender.

Not a sheep said...

What a sorry bunch to have to choose from.

John Bull said...

This shower of crypto-Communists and Britain-loathing Trotskyites shows exactly why the Great British public are so thirsty for a decent, honest government to give them their country back.

There are no odds on David Cameron being Prime Minister - because the people of England know electing him is not going to be a gamble.

Marquee Mark said...

If every one of them on that list was doing a "beauty parade" that was hit by an asteroid, the only political reaction would be to thank God that no-one took Lembit Opik's asteroid defence strategy seriously....

king said...

Is this because she would have to be caretaker leader while a new PM is chosen, with either her or GB being PM until ballots are complete, as was Margaret Beckett after John Smith died.

ie. is this a technical question rather than something important to bet on, unlike who ultimately becomes the next PM?
.or are the bookies treating it as the same thing?

Anonymous said...

Not sure about Harman but am very sure that Miliband is NOT up to the job. His brother Ed seems far more capable

Morus said...

Iain,

The story here is to see this market in relation to the 'Brown weeks' markets.

The next permanent Labour leader after Brown will either be next PM or next Leader of the Opposition (even on current polls!).

That Harman has risen to become favourite in this market whereas she is no more favoured in the next PM market implies that the money is moving towards the position that Brown will remain until the next election.

There are Labour members who would support HH, but would balk at putting her in Number 10. Without the demands of the highest office being placed on the winner of the next leadership contest, she actually enjoys a distinct advantage over all other candidates in Labour's electoral college.

Regards

Morus

workrobotwork said...

But why wouldn't John Reid be the next Labour leader then Iain?

Do tell, do tell...!

Gordon Brown said...

This is not a time for novices, we need a proven incompetent in charge.

Man in a Shed said...

Hatty is hated more than Gordon (as we must now call him) - fantastic !

John M Ward said...

Much as I have been thinking would probably happen, and wrote about myself over two weeks ago.

The signs were there, but not too obvious, so one instinctively knew what was really going on...

no longer anonymous said...

Harman as PM - what a Godawful prospect!

Anonymous said...

Cripes! The smug-one leader! It's enough to put one off one's favourite tipple.

Looks like the "Wall Street Shuffle" is going to give call-me-Dave an easy time with attention focussed elsewhere.

"Come back David Davis - all is forgiven"

John M Ward said...

Man in a Shed: "Hatty is hated more than Gordon (as we must now call him) - fantastic !"

"Hatty"? Ms Jacques must be turning in her grave as that :-)

Oh, and you are obviously Christopher Eccleston's Doctor Who; so that's one mystery solved and I claim my five pounds reward...

Chris Paul said...

Hazel is NOT a realistic contender. Of the other betting, in my insider view, I'd say:

3/1 Harriet Harman odds too short
7/2 David Miliband odds way too short
5/1 Jack Straw unlikely that a suitable scenario would arise
8/1 Jon Cruddas more likely DL or some first ministerial job even
8/1 Alan Johnson the value bet
12/1 James Purnell nope
12/1 John Denham another value bet
16/1 Alan Milburn no chance
16/1 Ed Balls no chance
16/1 John Reid no chance
20/1 Andy Burnham not yet
20/1 Ed Miliband long shot value
25/1 Caroline Flint nope
25/1 John Hutton nope
25/1 Yvette Cooper nope

As well as Hazel they seem to have missed out Graham Stringer and John McDonnell.

Anonymous said...

Not a sheep said...

What a sorry bunch to have to choose from.

September 26, 2008 12:58 PM

Oh really !!!!

Top half of list has a number of high profile house hold names, as does the middle half, and come to think of it the bottom half also has a number of big well known names, and this doesn’t even include the last PM Blair

May be you should give us a list of 14 people in line for Cambos job. I cant even think of 14.

Geoffrey G Brooking said...

I'd pay anyone for Hazel Blears to win!

Chris K said...

Powerful woman. Winds up the opposition. Commentators have an unhealthy obsession with her. Unexpectedly ends up as Party leader to the bafflement of many.

Could Harriet Harman be Labour's Margaret Thatcher?

airshipman said...

Chris K - if she finds some proper talent, maybe...

Anonymous said...

My only interpretation of HH moving ahead of Miliband is that the market sees Labour looking for a caretaker to lose the next election and quit in favour of the next "proper leader" who'll rebuild from the ashes. I suspect some saw John Major as that in 1990.. only to be confounded by his performance in 1992.

If Miliband senses the game's up for the next election, he'd be a fool to take the gig.

Suspect history will judge Gordo's coronation as one of Labour's less smart moves!

Diversity said...

"You know things are promising when..."

Cruddas moves up the betting order?

Marquee Mark said...

"Miliband is NOT up to the job. His brother Ed seems far more capable"

But Dave would give his brother a Chinese burn if he tried to have a go at the top job first...

Chas said...

Good news. She is even more hateable than Gordon Brown. She is also stupid, incoherent, a radical feminist and sure to piss off as many of her friends as enemies.

africanmum said...

They're all useless!

Anonymous said...

I thought it would be amusing to see how many of these had worked in what most people would regard as “normal” or “proper” jobs, rather than lawyers, researchers, analysts etc.

Work experience before becoming an MP (from Wikipedia):

Harriet Harman 4 years as lawyer
David Miliband 5 yrs policy analyst then 7 yrs for Blairs policy unit
Jack Straw 10 yrs as lawyer/researcher/at ILEA/political advisor
Jon Cruddas 12yrs working for Labour party
Alan Johnson 22 yrs in Tesco/postman plus 10 years as full time union official and General Secretary
James Purnell 5 yrs as researcher/at bbc then 4 yrs at number 10
John Denham 15 years FOE/British Council/War on Want/Oxfam
Alan Milburn 13 years bookshop /council/ trade union
Ed Balls 4 yrs writer for ft 10 yrs advisor to Gordon brown/Treasury
John Reid construction / insurance / officer for labour (indeterminate period, ~20 yrs?)
Andy Burnham 7 yrs researcher / parliamentary officer
Ed Miliband 3 yrs journalism then 12 yrs labour speechwriting / researcher
Caroline Flint 13 years ILEA / council union officer
John Hutton 11 years as lecturer
Yvette Cooper 5 yrs policy advisor /researcher plus 2 yrs as journalist

Holders of “proper” jobs for a significant time (11-32 years)
Alan Johnson
John Reid
John Hutton (if lecturing included)

Holders of “proper” jobs (Journalism) for a short time (2-4 years)
Ed Balls
Ed Miliband
Yvette Cooper

Dyed-in-the-wool politicos / lawyers
Harriet Harman
David Miliband
Jack Straw
Jon Cruddas
James Purnell
John Denham
Alan Milburn
Andy Burnham
Caroline Flint

Reed said...

Anon 2:36 PM Said:

'Top half of list has a number of high profile house hold names, as does the middle half, and come to think of it the bottom half also has a number of big well known names, and this doesn’t even include the last PM Blair

May be you should give us a list of 14 people in line for Cambos job. I cant even think of 14.'


So, this list has a top half, middle half AND bottom half......not very numerate are you?
Are you Alistair Darling by any chance?