10. How long before Mitt Romney's money runs out?
9. What circumstances would encourage Michael Bloomberg to run as an Independent?
8. Who will Al Gore endorse and when?
7. How long will Huckabee's ego hold?
6. When and if should Bill Clinton be put out on the stump again?
5. What will John McCain have to promise to gain Huckabee's endorsement?
4. How negative is Romney prepared to go?
3. How important will the VP choice be for each candidate?
2. Obama hasn't yet made a gaffe - how bad would it be for him if he made a big one?
1. Is Osama bin Laden the biggest known unknown in this election - i.e. how would a new terror attack affect the election?
Compiled with Daniel Forrester, with a hattip to his gorgeous (and long suffering) wife, Nancy - and of course Donald Rumsfeld
22 comments:
10. How long before Mitt Romney's money runs out? Long time
9. What circumstances would encourage Michael Bloomberg to run as an Independent? None, I hope, don't need another ego
8. Who will Al Gore endorse and when? Al who ?
7. How long will Huckabee's ego hold? Until he gets some crumbs
6. When and if should Bill Clinton be put out on the stump again? Don't be rude
5. What will John McCain have to promise to gain Huckabee's endorsement? Good question.
4. How negative is Romney prepared to go? As needed, same as the rest
3. How important will the VP choice be for each candidate? Somewhat, maybe an issue for McCain due to his age.
2. Obama hasn't yet made a gaffe - how bad would it be for him if he made a big one? Not good.
1. Is Osama bin Laden the biggest known unknown in this election - i.e. how would a new terror attack affect the election? GOP benefits and Hillary would benefit.
10. It won't.
9. If John Edwards and Mike Huckabee win. So never.
8. Obama, and before a key state.
7. He wins the whole south.
6. If it gets too close to call in Pen.
5. Nothing, Huckabee greatly dislikes Romney and is cordial with McCain. A la Giuliani.
4. I am not sure how much more negative he can be.
3. People vote top of the Ticket.
2. Depends....
1. Osama personally means nothing, terrorist attack means GOP win. See 'Mommy Problem'.
A bit of 'push polling' going on here methinks...
11. Would Obama be able to garner enough support from whites in swing states to stand a chance at the general election?
12. Will Latinos in Texas (to vote on March 4) back Hillary in the same volume as they did in California?
13. Assuming that both candidates arrive at the Democratic convention needing superdelegate support, how brutal will the fight get?
14. What election-influencing scandals are yet to come out? More philandering by Bill? Whitewater redux? Something in McCain's past other than the Keating 5?
15. It might be energising Democratic primary voters, but would US voters nationally be prepared to sign up to the most left-wing Democratic agenda in decades on health, climate change, and foreign policy?
16. Who benefits if there is a recession?
17. Assuming McCain gets the nomination, do conservative voters get out the Polly Toynbee nose-pegs and vote for him - or do they stay at home, potentially handing the race to the Democrats?
My prediction: still McCain/? v Clinton (probably with Obama as VP as by the convention he will be too strong to leave off the ticket); Clinton not to prove as 'vetted' or as rehabilitated with the American public as her advisors suggest; something between now and November focuses US political attention back from domestic policy to foreign issues (where it has been for most of the last 6 years after all); McCain edges it in a race fought on the values of fiscal prudence/low taxation and foreign strength.
PS you never answered my visa question...
Iain. Would you please explain why you are interested in the trivia of the US presidential election when there are issues of life and death in this country such as, for example, Britain's slithering down the slope towards a police state, as explained by Simon Jenkins in today's Grauniad. It isn't as if it makes any difference whether it is Barack, Clinton or McCain who wins.
The issue for Democrats now is to choose which of Obama or Clinton has the better chance of beating McCain. Liberal American friends of mine only have two problems with McCain. The first is that he supported the war in Iraq. The second is that he would be 72 on taking up office (the second point not just a concern of Liberals of course). Otherwise my friends are relatively comfortable with McCain who, although well to the right of mainstream European politicians, is towards the left in the US spectrum. How big will Iraq play in the General Election? Perhaps not very big.
Obama has the edge over Hillary as an anti-McCain candidate. He is young and he opposed the war from the start. Hillary didn’t, of course, and at 61 whilst she has the edge on McCain by some way she is no spring chicken.
Polls suggest that Obama has a wider margin over McCain than Hillary. If it’s McCain v Obama we have two “What’s not to like?” candidates. The same can’t be said of Hillary who is obviously mush more a divisive figure – not to mention Bill!
Could we have a bit less about the US please? It's not even an actual election, and it's intensely boring, as witness the fact that hardly anybody comments on posts about it.
You forgot:-
11.
When will Gideon and an entourage of Tory MPs fly to the States to help Republican Senator McCain with his election campaign.
11. How long before Huckabee becomes even more despised by the Ann-droids and talk radio Dittoheads than McCain? (I base that on the notion that where true believers are concerned, heretics are always despised more than infidels?)
12. Will McCain grow a pair, and tell Coulter and Limbaugh they're a pair of #!@%-ing morons who are emblematic of what's wrong with the Republican Party, and Hillary Clinton is welcome to their support?
Anyone else find the US Elections boring?
"And so, my friends....I say this to you.......Together we can change this wonderful country of ours....Together, we.."
AH SHADDAP!
9. What circumstances would encourage Michael Bloomberg to run as an Independent?
Hmmmm. I can't think of a better President, and I support Obama.
Clearly McCain will be the GOP nominee, which leaves little room for a centrist independent. I think a Hillary ticket would more likely draw in Mike than Obama - such is the loathing of the Clintons.
Clinton's dominance in the NE would come under threat from Bloomberg, too.
Anonymous 9.31. Because I am in Washington and this is a diary! And if you really think what happens in US politics doesn't affect Britain, think again, my friend!
8) Obama. Al Gore would rather die than endorse Hillary Clinton, and this is the Clinton's doing, not the Gore's. The Clintons hung him out to dry when the fundraising scandal hit the White House, when it was they who'd set him up in the first place, insisting to him it was his duty to "help the President."
2) Obama smokes. That IS a gaffe, in US politics. Laura Bush is the first smoker in the White House in decades, and she's very, very closety about it.
6) He's out. He's been campaigning for ages. Or are you being punny? In which case, he's been campaigning for ages, the old warhorse!
Interesting statistic: More gunshot deaths per capita in Washington than among US forces in Iraq.
The Logic of War
I partly agree with broon's talking bawgie at 10:20. I don't so much object to the American coverage, as to the lack of home coverage. I wonder what you think of Caroline Flint's effort. Personally I think it's a load of bollocks and she should be fired.
I left a comment at Norfolk Blogger expressing this view, but I can't really be arsed to write about it myself. It's not as if any expectations are hanging on what I say! :D
Who will Al Gore endorse, and when?
I still think Al Gore will endorse himself, as a compromise candidate. "For the good of the party." Both Clinton and Obama are divisive. You people in Britain underestimate his hunger to be president and his sense that he is somehow entitled to be president. Don't forget, he's from an old political Tennessee family and it's HIS TURN.
PS - He has the bucks. He wouldn't have to raise a dime.
10. How long before Mitt Romney doesn't want to throw good money after bad?
9. Hillary winning the nomination.
8. I'm unsure if Ted Kennedy, Kerry and Gore endorsing Obama is a good thing, someone who has Chappaquiddick around his neck, and two losers of elections?
5. The VP nomination.
Tamburlane - Texas doesn't have the same volume of Mexicans as CA does, although it still does have a lot. But many in Texas are successful professional people and there are a lot of Latins in local government in Texas. In other words, they're part of the structure. Also, as Texas used to be a state of Mexico, the Texans aren't that hostile to Latins. They're hardly regarded as newcomers!
Also, Texas is a very conservative state and has a lot of conservative Spanish people living in it.
(Don't forget, the Mexicans have voted for a conservative president in Mexico at three elections in a row.) Tough call, though. The Dems, of course, are trying to get votes for illegal aliens. Hmmmmm... reminds me of someone but I just can't put my finger on it ...
Asquith, Caroline Flint is as irrelevant to international politics as a flea. What happens in America is important. It's fun having first hand reports, even if we can all just tune in to Fox. But Iain's reporting as a Brit, with an eye on Britain (and he's not a Beeb minion) so it's refreshing and interesting.
raincoaster - Obama recently quit smoking - just like David Cameron recently quit smoking..... hehe
as if...
I like smoking and smokers anyway. So what? Up with smokers.
I can't bear puritans.
Obama bin Laden usually waits for the actual presidential race before confirming his backing for one of the candidates. Imagine the backroom politicking to get his endorsement.
Verity, I know some fleas who would be highly insulted by your comparing them to a cack-handed New Labour minister :)
Additionally I've been drinking this afternoon and I've got some spirits out of the fridge, so I apologise in advance for anything that may ensue.
10. plenty left in the coffers
9. timely economic nosedive
8. the Democrat ticket, at the
convention
7. until McCain puts him on the
ticket as VP
6. on the last battle-fronts if it
goes down to the wire
pre-convention
5. VP
4. "All the way, baby..!"
3. Deciding Factor
2. He won't
1. It would blow things wide-open,
both literally & figurative.
hem-hem...
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