Sunday, February 17, 2008

Nightmare Scenario for the Democrats

Democratic Party managers are already staring into the abyss. Many doresee a scenario in which the Convention in Denver at the end of August is deadlocked. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will have enough delegates to be nominated (currently it's 1300 ro 1220 in Obama's favour). The votes of the 796 Superdelegates then become crucial. It is said that these delegates are overhwelmingly white men. Can you imagine the consequences if they voted solidly for Hillary Clinton? Chicago 1968 might look like a vicar's tea party. As Nancy Pelosi has said: "It would be a problem for the party if the verdict would be something different than the public has decided." That may turn out to be the understatement of the year.

Still, it's OK, according to the very well informed Sarah Baxter in the Sunday Times, Al Gore has already offered to broker a deal ... in return for what, we may ask?

UPDATE: Great quote from the same paper: "Hillary is so divisive that McCain could beat her with Britney Spears as his running mate."

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The very well informed Sarah Baxter"??? Come off it, Iain. She admits in the next sentence that she only found out about Gore's offer by reading the New York Times. We can all do that...

Javelin said...

Iain you have stumbled across one of the unwritten rules of left wing logic.

As ABBA put it ...

The victor standing small the bigger victim takes the spoils.

verity said...

I don't want to brag on my political acuity, but, dear readers, did I not say in this space at least two weeks ago that Al Gore was sitting quietly in Tennessee, polishing his Nobel Prize and waiting for a phone call?

He won't broker a deal, dear readers. He will be "persuaded" to stand as a compromise candidate. To "save the party".

The sting of the hanging chads, the sting of defeat by the electoral college has never gone away. With a man with an ego the size of the Ritz, it never will.

He is the one compromise candidate who will not have to go out at the last minute and raise a few dollars. As he was formerly the world's largest shareholder in OXY, coupled with his family made their giant fortune over the last couple of centuries with tobacco plus, of course, he is now the world's largest "trader in carbon offsets" - whatever the hell voodoo that is - Al can finance his campaign out of his current account at his local bank.

And he has been positioning himself over the last handful of years as the world's most moral person.

Obama would lose the election for the Dems as all the people who daringly supported him during the primaries get cold feet and stay home. He's gimmicky, has a mighty short cv, is beginning to come across as a huckster, and is hopelessly out of his depth. If it were Hillary, the Dem voters would also stay home in droves - although she'd get a better turnout than Obama.

Who has government experience - eight years as VP of the US,16 years as a US Congressman in DC - and might,in a moment of desperation, be regarded as a safe pair of hands?

judith said...

Oh dear god, my weekend has been ruined (despite the arrival of a new grandson!) by Verity's convincing words on the resurgence of Gore - I tried to blank out her forecast of this a while back.

What a desperate choice for Americans - a somewhat flimsy youngster, a deeply-tainted woman, Ego Gore or Carpet-Slippers McCain. And yes, before the protests pour in, I am most definitely and positively and unashamedly being ageist.

verity said...

Judith - Congratulations on the arrival of a new grandson! May he be blessed with a healthy and happy life!

Re US politics, it's such a depressing field. Obama's a huckster and a deeply ignorant man. Hillary, I suppose, would be a safe pair of hands but she is an active voter repellent. Good news for the Reps! But ... errr ... John McCain? It's not just the age, although that is an issue. It's that awful, self-congratulatory smile. It is the absolute lack of executive experience, the lack of vision, the fuzzy wuzzy Democratesque ideas.

Yes, he was a very, very brave man in Viet Nam and we all admire him for his endurance and willpower. But that experience was no training for being a chief executive of anything, never mind the most powerful country in the history of the world.

As Mark Steyn says, when he too acknowledges Mr McCain's bravery: (from memory): But there were hundreds of American prisoners who underwent torture in Viet Nam and many of them were very, very brave. But we can't make them all president.

Knowing the US as I do, and being in touch all the time with my American friends - all but one of them, and she is so witty she is excused - Republicans, there is a terrible lack of enthusiasm.

It looks to me as though the most capable candidate is Hillary and I never thought I would type those words.

Yak40 said...

The question of Michigan and Florida's delegates will become vital. These two states' delegates are prohibited from being seated as they moved up their primary dates in defiance of the DNC. So everyone withdrew from the ballot in Michegan - except Hillary whose campaign is now making noises about "Michigan voters being disenfranchised" and so on. Similarly Florida. Big surprise, Clintons trying to cheat and it won't be the first time.

As for Gore, not sure how much he made from baccy but the OXY connection is there, in fact he awarded NPR4 (Elk Hills Petroleum Reserve) to OXY when it was privatised in the late 90s. Surprise.

Armand Hammer used to say of Gore's father "I have a senator in my back pocket" and his interest extended to Al jr.

BTW there was a story that Al' middle name was Hammer, as christened, but ignored now, wonder if it's true ?

The "super delegates" were instituted bt the Democratic party establishment to ensure that the party could retain control of the nomination process, how democratic (like so much on the left, democracy is often a joke).

Paddy Briggs said...

Iain

Do stop licking your lips!

Democrats: Fantastic stimulating debate between a white woman and a black man about the future of America (= future of the planet).

Republicans: No viable candidate at all - so the reversion to an Old Man who is the only one among them with even the vestiges of honour and credibility! Electable? My foot!

Stay focused on the Democrat contest. Because the next American President will be a woman or a Negro. How will that play in the Deep South? Or with Verity , for that matter!

verity said...

Yak 40 - Interesting post. Re Gore's middle name - children are often named after rich family friends for obvious reasons - especially if they're all in the same unimaginably rich circle.

Moneywise, don't forget, they had those tobacco plantations for a couple of hundred years. I've never seen any figures, but the wealth must be enormous. For all I know, they still have them - although, if so, they will have been transferred to another name, for sure. I don't see the Gores giving up anything that produces such vast revenues. It doesn't matter that much if smoking has gone off the boil in the West. China has 1.2bn people, Japan - Olympic endurance smokers - around 70m, and there are other parts of the world that still puff away.

And he has made another fortune in these notional carbon offset credits which, to be fair, is a stroke of brilliance. I wonder who thought of it for him.

dearieme said...

Al Globe for President; well, well. I suppose he'd take Baghdad Osama as his VP candidate, even though the goatherd's boy has a far better speaking voice than Al, and a far more effective delivery. (And, I suspect, a far higher IQ.) By God he'd have to be a brave fellow who took Hillary as VP.

Gary Elsby said...

fair point, but hillary is a woman and that is a first, also.

Surely,Clinton running with obama will be the outcome and Obama should accept second place.

Bill is doing the phones, calling in all the Presidential favours he gave and promising not tell of any 'extra curricular' activities buried along the way.

Hillary will rise, soon.

Gary

Paddy Briggs said...

Gary Elsby

Yes - that is the dream ticket. Hillary is holding strong amongst the White working class for good and (er) less good reasons.

Would she/Obama do a deal whereby she agreed to be a one term Pres with him as Veep in return for her and the system's unequivocal support in 2012? I really think that she just might! Would he accept it - mmmm ??

verity said...

Paddy Briggs - Obama is not black, unless you believe that if you are genetically even one-eighth black, that means you are black, not white. Octroon.

Obama is 50% black and 50% white. Why is he described as being black - except, of course, for electoral advantage. Obama is mixed race and could as easily be described as white.

Yak40 said...

"Surely,Clinton running with obama will be the outcome and Obama should accept second place.'

He'd be stupid to accept VP and as for Hillary "promising" to quit after one term, well you've all seen how much those kind of promises are worth, right ?

Don't rule out McCain so quickly either, the President is also Commander in Chief and neither Hillary nor Obama is qualified to be a PFC let alone CinC.

verity said...

Yak 40 is, of course, right and Paddy Briggs is, as always, wrong.

He is getting confused by the carve-up that Blair and Brown made of the British Premiership. The presidency of the United States is not so tawdry.

Would even Paddy Briggs trust Hillary's word? Or even a hundred page signed document witnessed by 20 people? I cannot abide Obama, but he is not stupid.

Although I don't like McCain, I agree with Yak 40 that he should not be written off. You do not make it all the way to the nomination of one of the two major parties in the United States by being stupid. Everyone ever nominated (I except Jimmuh Cahduh) is fiercely intelligent.

canvas said...

Verity, Barack Obama's half sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, was recently interviews by Deborah Solomon for the New York Times.

Maya was asked:
Do you think of your brother as black?

Maya replied: "Yes, because that is how he has named himself. Each of us has a right to name ourselves as we will. "
________


It might be a close contest at the moment between Clinton and Obama - but Barack Obama will be the next US President.

I certainly hope he is!

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

Obama is a black Tony Blair - a brilliant actor with no idea about how to decide what actually needs changing, let alone how to go about changing it.

He would be the worst President that the US has ever had precisely because, as with Blair, he is unable to distinguish being popular from being any good:

in a nutshell he believes his own bullshit.

canvas said...

Tone Made Me Do it:

Obama "walks between worlds". That is something Tony Blair could only dream of doing.

It is pointless to compare Obama to Blair. Obama has integrity.

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

canvas said...
"It is pointless to compare Obama to Blair. Obama has integrity."


I'm sorry me old mate that's precisely my point.

In 1997 90% thought that not only did Blair have "integrity" some of them thought he was the second bleedin coming.

This rock star popularity is bad when it comes to UK PM's, its positively disastrous when it comes to the most powerful country in history.

Could you answer me one question. What does obama mean when he says he wants "change"?

Think about it - Obama and his whole campaign is only about two things: the study of Bovine Scatology and the use of rock star looks to get a third rate thinker to become the most powerful man in the world.

Be Afraid. Be very Afraid.

verity said...

"Obama "walks between worlds"."

WTF?

Which worlds? Waking and Fantasy?

I believe I was the first on the internet - at least on a well-known blog - to dub Obama a shyster and a huckster in the pattern of Blair. Blair never gave a rat's arse about Britain. In fact, he actively dislikes it. For some reason I could never fathom because he was so clearly mental, a sufficient number of British thought he had "charisma" - an empty enough qualification, to be sure - and voted for him.

Obama also seems to have the charisma of a sales manager on the showroom floor of Lexus or BMW. Charming, quick-witted, presence, faultlessly dressed.

I am not yet certain that he is as malign as Tony Blair, and I'm keeping an open mind ... but I think there is something not quite right about this fellows and I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole, even if I were an American Democrat. His background is much too exciting.

So the sister is Indonesia/Chinese, eh? And when asked if he were black - which we all know he is not - "Maya replied: "Yes, because that is how he has named himself. Each of us has a right to name ourselves as we will." Maya's first name means magic, or illusion, in Hindi. So she seems to be as confused as the rest of the family.

Fine. Whatever.

fly me mandy said...

verity shows that her comments are driven only by hate. i would think her racist if she had not also directed her bile towards tony blair who is almost whiter than white. there are plenty of hucksters about in politics and the american primaries are full of them. the only one i would pick from these is obama. and what about the the uk shysters and hucksters david cameron, george osborne the whole shadow cabinet, the cabinet and the lib dems.
BARACK OBAMA FOR THE WHITE/BLACK HOUSE!!

Rush-is-Right said...

The US election season is reminding me of the 2012 Olympics bid.

Remember how we all cheered when Paris got kicked out? 'Up your's with a wire brush, Froggie!' we all said, and how we enjoyed the moment.

It will be the same when Hill-Billy comes a cropper, either at the Dem Conference or in November.

But as with the Olympics, the reckoning will come later. We will get either a 70-year old buffoon who'se only qualification is his (admittedly distinguished) war record, or a young bag of wind whom nobody knows anything about. That assumes, of course, that there is anything about him worth knowing apart from the fact that he can stand up and make a 1 hour speech and not say a damned thing.

Be careful what you wish for. You might not like what you get!

canvas said...

Tone Made me Do it says: " What does obama mean when he says he wants "change"?"



Barack Obama:

We are looking for more than just a change of party in the White House. We're looking to fundamentally change the status quo in Washington - a status quo that extends beyond any particular party. And right now, that status quo is fighting back with everything it's got; with the same old tactics that divide and distract us from solving the problems people face, whether those problems are health care they can't afford or a mortgage they cannot pay.

So this will not be easy. Make no mistake about what we're up against.

We are up against the belief that it's ok for lobbyists to dominate our government - that they are just part of the system in Washington. But we know that the undue influence of lobbyists is part of the problem, and this election is our chance to say that we're not going to let them stand in our way anymore.

We are up against the conventional thinking that says your ability to lead as President comes from longevity in Washington or proximity to the White House. But we know that real leadership is about candor, and judgment, and the ability to rally Americans from all walks of life around a common purpose - a higher purpose.

We are up against decades of bitter partisanship that cause politicians to demonize their opponents instead of coming together to make college affordable or energy cleaner; it's the kind of partisanship where you're not even allowed to say that a Republican had an idea - even if it's one you never agreed with. That kind of politics is bad for our party, it's bad for our country, and this is our chance to end it once and for all.

We are up against the idea that it's acceptable to say anything and do anything to win an election. We know that this is exactly what's wrong with our politics; this is why people don't believe what their leaders say anymore; this is why they tune out. And this election is our chance to give the American people a reason to believe again.

And what we've seen in these last weeks is that we're also up against forces that are not the fault of any one campaign, but feed the habits that prevent us from being who we want to be as a nation. It's the politics that uses religion as a wedge, and patriotism as a bludgeon. A politics that tells us that we have to think, act, and even vote within the confines of the categories that supposedly define us. The assumption that young people are apathetic. The assumption that Republicans won't cross over. The assumption that the wealthy care nothing for the poor, and that the poor don't vote. The assumption that African-Americans can't support the white candidate; whites can't support the African-American candidate; blacks and Latinos can't come together.

But we are here tonight to say that this is not the America we believe in. We are not just up against the ingrained and destructive habits of Washington, we are also struggling against our own doubts, our own fears, and our own cynicism. The change we seek has always required great struggle and sacrifice. And so this is a battle in our own hearts and minds about what kind of country we want and how hard we're willing to work for it.

So let me remind you tonight that change will not be easy. That change will take time. There will be setbacks, and false starts, and sometimes we will make mistakes. But as hard as it may seem, we cannot lose hope. Because there are people all across this country who are counting us; who can't afford another four years without health care or good schools or decent wages because our leaders couldn't come together and get it done. "








There is a consensus, an unspoken feeling, an intuition, that Barack Obama is the right man, in the right place, at the right time.

Go Obama!

Anonymous said...

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

"Could you answer me one question. What does obama mean when he says he wants "change"?"

Tone:

Clearly you have failed to read the full manifesto of the Miss World candidate

i.e. 'Change! And World Peace!'

Hope that helps.

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

Canvas
thanks for the quote from that rather long winded speach.

But it doesn't answer my question:

What precisely will Obama change?
What would you like him to change?

The Constitution?
- thats a very difficult thing to do.
- the fact that a candidate will get elected without resorting to fund raising from the ususal suspects?
(Obama is already in hock to these people by the shovel load.)

Obama is an actor. Ronald Reagan was an actor. The difference is that with RR he surrounded himself with experts. Obama, like Blair will surround himself with yes men.

Oddly the Candidate to reform Washington (caps on election spending) would be Macain

canvas said...

Dear Tone Made Me do it:

I can see that you only hear what you want to hear - and that's fine. I'm sure you're not bitter, jaded, twisted, soulless and cynical. :)

But there are millions of people out there in the world who are hearing Obama's message - loud and clear. But if you don't get it - then you don't get it, fair enough.

Obama will reclaim Washington DC for the people and he will rebuild America's reputation across the world (which George Bush and the neo-cons destroyed).

Barack Obama epitomises the American Dream where citizens can achieve whatever they set out to achieve. You can mock this idea - but it's powerful.

Barack Obama will create a politics that brings people together. The ability to inspire and to persuade others to follow is no trivial thing, it's not superficiality. It's a critical aspect of leadership which is required at times like these, when only a more unified nation can face the difficult times ahead.

Politicians in the UK should take note.

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

Canvas said
"I'm sure you're not bitter, jaded, twisted, soulless and cynical"

Canvas I'm not any of the above.

I just don't have enough sick buckets for the type of thing your talking about.

Please answer the question.

Other than making a Coca Cola style "I'd like to teach the world to sing" advert by holding hands
in Washington and hoping people will like the USA

WHAT EXACTLY WOULD YOU AND OBAMA LIKE TO CHANGE?

Does he have any policies other than the pull out of Iraq?

I am amazed that anyone who has lived through 10 years of Blair BS could so easily be fooled again.

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

canvas
if you're too young to have seen the coke advert from 1970 you tube has it at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXl8N9B8oN0

great ad - it pushed all the buttons at the time, as a 6 year old I was convinced, and have never drunk pepsi since

It emotes in the way that some politicians have tried to do ever since.

Its just not the best way to convince the masses to choose the most powerful man in the history of mankind.