Could the Republican Party be approaching the abyss? The Sunday Times reports today that John McCain's denials of a relationship with a blonde lobbyist are starting to unravel. Although the content of the article doesn't quite match up to the headline, it's telling that McCain is quoted as saying: " We still don't know how this whole thing ends up". Let's look into a counterfactually interesting abyss. What would happen if McCain is hown to have told an untruth about his fidelity? The likelihood is that he would have to abandon his campaign. What happens then?
The Republicans would be without a presidential nominee. No one seriously believes Mike Huckabee, the only other candidate left in the race, would be a credible candidate. So who would they turn to? Rudy Giuliani? Not very likely after his appalling campaign. Mitt Romney? Highly probable, but he's disliked and mistrusted by many members of the Republican establishment who would see it as their role to make a recomendation to the Convention in September.
A very likely scenario is one where the party looks to a popular State Governor to carry the torch. And who better than the incredibly popular Governor of Florida? Step forward Charlie Crist.
OK, enough of the counterfactuals, but make no mistake Crist is the coming man of the Republican Party. Whatever the outcome this November, expect him to be a candidate in 2012.
41 comments:
I don't believe McCain has been unfaithful - he isn't stupid enough.
What is going to be much more difficult is if he did have some contact / conversations with her about issues of media ownership, and he is now trying to 'forget' them.
He needs to front up completely about this, very quickly, and draw a line in the sand behind it. If he starts down the legalistic equivocation route, he will start to remind voters, however unfair the comparison, of Clinton's " I did not have sexual relations with that woman".
... or, more likely, 2016, as really serious candidates do not bother opposing a sitting president seeking a second term.
Hillary for one did not challenge GW Bush 4 years ago.
Alan Douglas
Crist may be on the ticket regardless of the outcome of the McCain affair story. He is probably at the top of the list currently for McCain's running mate.
If McCain is to win in November against Obama (assuming he is the nominee) he will need to win the key states of Florida and Ohio. Ohio currently looks like it will swing Democrat meaning he cannot afford at any cost to loose Flordia and it's electoral votes. The only way he can almost guarantee Flordia is by selecting Crist who is extremely popular and will also help him bring out the conservative vote.
I didn't know you believed in Crist.
"Mike Huckabee, the only other candidate left in the race."
Ian, you missed out Ron Paul
The issue with Crist, sadly, is issues over his private life which are fairly plain to see if you google him. The GOP is not too progressive on these issues, which is a shame as he is an excellent governor.
So the New York Times dredges up a nine year old story, sits on it until a damaging time then releases it, having endorsed McCain as the best GOP candidate a while back.
No agenda there.
"... or, more likely, 2016, as really serious candidates do not bother opposing a sitting president seeking a second term."
I seem to remember a certain Ronald Reagan challenging Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Or Bill Clinton challenging Bush in 1992.
"Ian, you missed out Ron Paul"
Ron Paul is not relevant. He polls at about 7% among the Republicans. He have not won a single primary.
"He is probably at the top of the list currently for McCain's running mate."
Another interesting candidate is the Governor of Georgia.
Tom, as a former staff attorney for the Florida House of Representatives, I can tell you that the DNC's "punishment" of Florida is going to make it VERY hard for a Dem to win here in November. McCain does not need Crist to have the edge over Obama or Hillary in Florida: he needs a rock-solid conservative VP pick to help him solidify his weakness with the base of the party and turn them out to actually vote. I've worked personally with Charlie Crist and I like the guy immensely, but he doesn't fit that bill. And that's without getting into any of his personal issues.
Crist hasn't even been governor for a full term yet. No question he's going places, but I think he's plenty content where he is now for the moment.
An affair with a lobbyist? bad news ...and lieing about it?
The Republicans are toast.
Go Obama.
lying too. edit button please? :)
Ron Paul spoke to a crowd of 4000 yesterday in Texas. To say he is irrelevant is absurd. Regardless of his standings in the polls it is a blatant lie to say that Mike Huckabee is the only other republican candidate. All of the mainstream media outlets have been ignoring Dr. Paul for quite some time and for weeks now have been saying the republican race is down to two candidates. I have spoken to countless people who believed that Dr. Paul had dropped out of the race because of what they had seen on the news channels. It's no wonder Dr. Paul's poll numbers remain low. Of course many of the polls also don't even include his name. Don't be part of the sheeple in this country and believe all the lies. Dr. Paul continues to bring in donations, and his supporters are increasing. He deserves to be acknowledged as a candidate. If the republican party would wake up they would realize he could beat Obama or Clinton due to his support across all parties.
Crist Almighty vs Obama the Messiah: I can't wait.
Or should that be The Prophet Obama?
Interesting article on Crist....remarkably like the big feature on him as a potential running mate in the Sunday Times last week!
Tracey - few people care about RuPaul. His campaign is made up of nazi money and internet loons who were happy to send a dollar a time to prop up this fraud. He's not a Republican, he isn't popular within the party and his campaign is already moving resources to his reelection campaign.
TOO LATE.
I can't wait until the campaign proper gets underway, all the Paul spammer diciples will crawl back under their rocks I hope.
This is important and we need to know...
Is it
Crist as in GRIST
or
Crist as in Christ?
Please, put me out of my misery or we shall be up all night with the Crist/Christ jokes.
O'Barmy the messiah, more like.
Oh, and rightsideforum, yep, Paul isn't a republican, thank god. He's a libertarian, and actually worth voting for.
When I saw that photo of Charlie Crist, the first thought to come into my head was "P please Bob!"
It's wishful thinking that Ron Paul and his supporters are going away. Do the research into Paul's consistant voting record, like his supporters have done, then give it some thought.
Nobody is crawling under any rocks. As far as Consitutional government goes, and cleaning up the Republican Party, WE ARE THE ROCKS!
He'd have dye his hair .
Once again I find disappointment, not only in the people who are considered in the journalists group, but also those who are supposed to be independent thinking Americans. Ron Paul is discounted as a loon. The most disturbing thing about that is he is the only one I have heard who uses the constitution to give backing to what he wants to accomplish. Since when is standing on the Constitution of the United States loony?... especially here in the United States. Is that not the law of the land that is supposed to limit our government? It was put in place to "chain down" the government, not the people. Before you dismiss Ron Paul or any other candidate...do what you are supposed to do as an American...look to the constitution to see how your candidate measures up.
Obama says: it's all Crist to my mill.
I'm not so sure that lying about an affair hurts McCain. This is, after all, the Maverick we're talking about. I mean, the guy was going with, how can I put this delicately, a cabaret dancer. And he cheated on his first wife. This whole thing will blow over.
It really doesn't matter who the Republican candidate is because no one can beat either Obama or Clinton.
I keep expecting Obarmy to turn up in the jungle in Guyana with a big carton of Kool-Aid packets. He's a Messianic loon - and those of us who witnessed the madness of Tony Blair are only too familiar with the type. Please, no more Messianic loons.
The only "change I can believe in" is the change they hand me at the supermarket till.
That photo of OBarmy and his wife sitting on the step of the gigantic porch of their mansion pretending they were sitting on an inner city stoop was too funny.
Is this chap Crist a long-lost brother of our Darling?
If Ron Paul got just half as much media coverage as mc flame he would be at the top of the list. Neither he nor his supporters are going away
You're right! Crist does look like Darling! Separated at birth perhaps?
Wrinkled Weasel, it rhymes with grist, not with Christ. It's a classic Ellis Island immigrant's abbreviation of his grandfather's name, Cristodoulos.
Only reason Paul polls low is the concerted effort by the MSM and the Republican party to marginalize him. Shout out his message and see how he does then!
"Ron Paul spoke to a crowd of 4000 yesterday in Texas. To say he is irrelevant is absurd."
Ron Paul could speak to a crowd of 40 000 for all I care, the point is that he is incredibly marginal. Far more than marginal than Mike Huckabee.
The primary-season is soon over, and Paul have not won a single state, and he probably wont win anyone either.
Iain - In 2005, working as a junior Foreign Service Officer at the US Embassy in Bogota, I drew the assignment to guide then-Florida State Attorney General Crist around town for various functions relating to a State of Florida trade delegation.
I've since left the Foreign Service, but in any case, I had a chance to watch the man close up for 48 hours.
How to put this?
I've decided on blunt.
He possesses an obvous politician cunning, konws when to smile, when to agree, when to furrow one's brow, how to get the most out of a well-pressed suit. But, damn, he was one of the dumbist individuals I have ever had close contact with. He didn't understand simple briefings and if you thought he may have he would open his mouth and ask a question that would confirm general cluelessness.
Very vain and very, very dull-witted. Should be a used car salesman.
No way a real man like McCain picks him for anything other than a "thanks' position, like, say, ambassador to Argentina or New Zealand.
Also, Crist's lack of wife or partner of any sort could be an issue..
Andy - Also, Crist's lack of wife or partner of any sort could be an issue..
Well it didn't seem to be an issue in getting the Chief Executive's post in Florida.
"Is Charlie Crist gay?", asks the Orlando Weekly.
Why does it matter? Isn't his personal business?
" As a commentor at BlogActive notes:
Because you support a political platform which defines homosexuals such as Charlie Crist as belonging to a dangerous 'lifestyle' and a threat to children. And you support a Party (Republican) which is currently trying to add anti-gay discrimination into the Constitution of the United States of America. Hello?"
It's pretty clear that the Republican Party are out of date. They are past their USE BY date. They are toast.
McCain has a tacky stepford wife who used to steal to feed her drug addiction. It's all true and well documented. McCain might soon be proven as a liar and a cheat who gets into bed with LOBBYISTS.
It's going to be a Democrat in the Whitehouse - and the world will rejoice.
If the Republican establishment likes Crist he is toast with the conservative base. McCain won the primaries with the careful engineering of the RNC (Republican National Committee). Because McCain had made himself the pariah of Reagan conservatives with his leftist deals culminating in the attempt to force passage of a bill giving amnesty to over 20 million Mexicans illegally in the country, they got McCain a win by deceit. They ran Giuliani on 9-11 sympathies and Thompson, both posing as anti-amnesty conservatives. Huckabee was allowed to rise and given soft press by normally anti-evangelical main stream media who also supported McCain. Romney used his own wealth to drain delegates. When the key primaries were over Giuliani and Thompson raced to hand McCain their delegates. Romney, supposedly a spoiler gave up his winnings before the convention where delegates are normally used to bargain for influence. Huckabee is kept alive to prevent Evangelicals bolting to the DEMs. If Huckabee does not kiss McCain's ring at the convention I will be surprised since Huckabee is a pro amnesty liberal. You cannot measure the joy of the GOP establishment at this win and you cannot measure the rage of the conservative base at bait and switch that substituted the most hated leftist in the GOP. The proof is in the lack of donations except from the country club set who need the under the table illegal employees to replace expensive citizens burdened with mandates. In Michigan where I live Democrats used to choose their candidates in private caucuses and then go to the polls to vote GOP. This year they could not vote GOP if they wanted to vote on Hillary vs Obama so conservatives chose their own man and Romney won by a large margin. Similarly in Florida one exit pollster found 20 percent of McCain votes came from crossover democrats of independents who will not vote McCain in the general election. The purge of the RNC is one Stalin could brag about. There is no VP who can make McCain palatable to the base especially if the RNC crowd considers him a good boy. Meanwhile the RNC rushed fund solicitations before the NYT article had displayed on must computer screens, suggesting the second part of their nasty strategy: to make McCain an underdog and victim of the evil liberals so the suckers in the base will give them back the whips to abuse them. Do not believe the WSJ/American Spectator spin. The base is not going to obey the GOP on this betrayal. The anger is unreal as was the con game
4:20 - Very interesting post. Thank you. I'm sending it up to a friend in Texas who has made the agonised decision not to vote this year. And he has been a stout Republican supporter all his life.
Anonymous at 4:20: You and your friends on the Hard- Right will probably appreciate the judges appointed by Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
Just imagine, 3-4 new Ruth Joan Bader Ginsburgs in the Supreme Court.
2012? Wouldn't be so sure about Crist getting the Republican nomination - Jeb Bush and Bill Owens (far more popular with the conservative base) might go for it.
But as for his lack of a wife or partner, I know those within the GOP hostile to same-sex relationships might not see it this way, but isn't it just possible that Crist is asexual? Incredible as it may seem, some people really don't give a f*ck if they don't get a f*ck.
Anon at 8:45, is it possible? Anything's possible. Is it correct? Not at all likely.
buckinghamshire tory:
Agreed on your point. We are also concerned about McCain appointments. One of McCain's top advisors is the man who promoted Souter into the Supreme Court. Souter supported the recent eminent domain decision. Private property may be seized for public use (highways, floodplain etc) if fairly compensated. Souter voted to expand the Constitution so a municipality can now seize homes for commercial development on the grounds it would be a financial boon to the municipality. McCain sponsored McCain-Feingold which prevented certain groups from running political ads within three months of elections, giving advantage to incumbents (like McCain) and the press, which has no limit. McCain led the battle on the amnesty bill, which contained so many outrages. For instance it had a limited 24 hour background check for each of the twenty million claimants. If negative evidence is not found in that time the claimant passes. Gang members (felons) would be allowed, if they renounced the gang. After the law took effect, anyone without proper permissions would be restricted from entering the country. unless they were Mexican in which case they would be released on the honor system to report later. McCain has no reason to appoint judges who would interfere with his new definition of political speech, or citizenship, or borders, or possibly eminent domain. The leading scholar at his foundation also served as McCain's Hispanic outreach coordinator for the election. This man, a dual Mexican-American citizen has declared that America is a region, not a nation. He has stated he wants Mexican-American citizens to think Mexico first to all generations. After that was publicized , McCain did not repudiate the appointment which still stands.
Conservatives who love the American Constitution, what is left of it, have a lot to fear from McCain judges also
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