political commentator * author * publisher * bookseller * radio presenter * blogger * Conservative candidate * former lobbyist * Jack Russell owner * West Ham United fanatic * Email iain AT iaindale DOT com
Monday, June 09, 2008
I Wouldn't Want to be a Mobile Phone in No 10 Tonight
Tomorrow's Times has a poll from Populus showing the Tories up five points at 45 per cent, Labour down four at 25 and the Libdems up one at 20. Gordon Brown's personal rating is now even lower than IDS's was just before he was knifed.
Andrew Rawnsley is also doing a pretty good demolition job at present in Channel 4 Dispatches - "Where did it all go wrong for Gordon Brown?" - ably assisted by contributions from Alistair Darling;Jack Straw;Nick Brown;Frank Field & Michael Gove.
I suspect the Downing Street TV has had the great "clunking fist" through the screen already and we're only halfway through
That's astounding. But what is perhaps more worrying for Brown is that the polling took place on 6-8 June. So the MEP stuff and Spelman is all in full swing while these questions are being asked, and the Tories go up 5 points!
P.S. This Dispatches on C4 is the sort of thing you usually see after a politican has been removed from power - not during.
I do like it when the Lib Dems are up one, don't you?
I expect his TV set will also be 'quaking in its boots', once he's read tomorrow's papers''Last Night's TV..." columns
When the Lib Dems overtake him he'll be finished!
Mrs Weasel has never seen Iain's blog but caught me on it just now. She says it has a calm look and feel. Very political is Mrs Weasel.
Do you think the 4% was made up of people who Gordon had recently telephoned?
In the 6.5 years that Populus have been polling this poll is record breaking in Populus terms.
The Conservative share is the highest share that any party have enjoyed.
The Conservative lead is the biggest lead that any party has enjoyed.
The Labour share is the lowest share ever received for either the Labour or Conservative Party.
And what about Rawnsley on tonight's C4 Despatches about Brown's slide into Hell? Can't think that would do much for Labour's ratings either.
E's been found 'e 'as asn't 'e. Nah it's time 'e gets it into 'is fick 'ead and facks orf aht ov it. The git
The poll is online here. It's overwhelmingly positive for Conservatives, with only three fifths of Labour voters in 2005 saying they will back Labour again. One fifth of Labour voters will vote Conservative.
One negative aspect is an increase in 17 points of the perception that the Tories have a 'sleaze' problem, but that's to be expected after the MEP headlines (and the BBC's Crick smear on Mrs Spelman). It will die down when Cameron deselects the offending MEPs.
Andrew Rawnsley didn't so much stick the knife in as drop a nuclear device on Gordon Brown. With many present and past cabinet members joining into press the button.
The whole program was written as a post-mortem, it was entirely in the past-tense, including any reference to Mr Brown.
It was written in the same, tone, tense and style of the what went wrong with Major and the ERM documentaries. Only Major was out of office when they were broadcast.
The question he didn't ask is where will Labour go next? surely not back to the cold-war/class-war struggle. Labour lost a grip on it's soul to get elected and in doing so let go of a touchstone from with to evolve social equality in the 21st century. The Tories have never made such a sacrifice.
Rawnsley's prog was like a combination of an obit combined with a denunciation of the not-quite-dead from the pulpit. Given that it's Rawnsley, wtf is going on?
I am certainly impressed with lola's incisive political libellus:
"E's been found 'e 'as asn't 'e. Nah it's time 'e gets it into 'is fick 'ead and facks orf aht ov it. The git."
Quite. What are you doing later, Lola?
Looks like the metro Left doesn't want its party to be obliterated by Gordo's presence.
(Personally, I fancy that as people retire 10 years after the great pensions robbery, Gordo is now widely regarded as the 'man who stole your future' - cRichard Littlejohn).
Anyway, Metro-types, wadda you going to do about it?
Oddly I took a different view of the Dispatches programme. It was no where near as damaging as it could have been. In some ways I thought it was trying to draw the poison.
It tried to make the argument that if only we knew Gordon and he didn't work so hard.
You have to ask yourself why Straw and Smith would appear in such a programme unless authorised to do so and seeing some advantage in doing so.
A inordinate amount of time was spent on Gordon's surprise party for his wife - though the conflicting memories of the event were perhaps a hint trying to break through some deal made.
We know its bad for Brown - the question is not how did it get so bad, but from Labour's viewpoint can it be fixed. I thought the programme was making the point that it could.
( No mentions of the English Question, or the voters rabid knee jerk hostility to Brown combined with credit / inflation / and economic crisis, the polyclinic extermination of GPs, road tax, road charging amd with added wars in Iraq, Afghanistan plus perhaps Iran by the year end ).
See it could have been far worse.
PS Vince Cable seems to be enjoying life these days. Perhaps he realises he had a narrow escape ?
lola (9.08pm)- I think you've hit the nail on the head. Well, done. More pithy comments please.
I think thwe government can recover. Look at the way labour fought back from similiar ratings in the 68 to go into the 1970 election with a massive 10 point lead.
The PM may destroy mobile phones but who cares. Fergie used to break tea cups. It shows he has fire in his belly.
Fergie used to break tea cups. It shows he has fire in his belly.
and tea on his trousers
Two thoughts to Dirty European Socialist. 1: Labour lost the 1970 Election (but take your point!), and 2: Fergie is very good at what he does, commands enormous respect, and is effective. Brown is an appalling Prime Minister, any respect and credibility he had is draining away day by day, and he is not effective at all. Fergie also has world class players, Brown has Smith, Darling, Harman, Balls, Johnson, Kelly and all the other lightweights in his Cabinet. Oh, and if Brown was manager of Manchester United they'd probably have relegated.
IDS took party up to 35% in the polls at the Party Conference in 2003. His personal rating cannot have been that bad...until the knives were plunged.
GOODBYE TO Jack Straw, Jacqui Smith, Alistair Darling, John Denham, James Purnell, Beverley Hughes, Tessa Jowell, Tony Wright, Jon Cruddas, Bill Rammell, Tony McNulty, Geoffrey Robinson, Betty Williams, Anne Begg, Mark Tami, Judy Mallaber, Michael Weir, Alan Reid, Sandra Osborne, John Hutton, Angela Smith, John Mann, Mike Wood, Martin Linton, Patrick Hall, Michael Moore, Gisela Stuart, Roger Godsiff, Richard Burden, Stephen McCabe, Joan Humble, Gordon Marsden, David Crausby, Ruth Kelly, Marsha Singh, Roger Williams, Barry Gardiner, Ann Keen, Madeleine Moon, Ian Cawsey, Desmond Turner, David Lepper, Kerry McCarthy, Doug Naysmith, Nick Palmer, Janet Dean, David Chaytor, Ivan Lewis, Christine McCafferty, Julia Goldsworthy, Julie Morgan, Alun Michael, Kevin Brennan, Eric Martlew, Nick Ainger, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Jonathan Shaw, Patsy Calton, Martin Horwood, Christine Russell, Lindsay Hoyle, Shona McIsaac, Martyn Jones, Kali Mountford, Jamie Reed, Phil Hope, Dan Rogerson, Colin Breed, Jim Cunningham, Laura Moffatt, Howard Stoate, David Hanson, Bob Laxton, Natascha Engel, Mark Todd, Shahid Malik, Jim Knight, Gwyn Prosser, Ian Austin, Ian Pearson, Russell Brown, Roberta Blackman-Woods, Andrew Slaughter, Stephen Pound, Christopher Huhne, Mark Lazarowicz, Nigel Griffiths, Andrew Miller, Colin Burgon, Clive Efford, Liz Blackman, Ben Bradshaw, Alan Keen, Vernon Coaker, Parmjit Dhanda, Martin Caton, Austin Mitchell, Tony Wright, Sylvia Heal, Linda Riordan, Gareth Thomas, Michael Foster, Andrew Dismore, Paul Keetch, Tom Levitt, Frank Dobson, Celia Barlow, Greg Pope, Mike Gapes, Chris Mole, Emily Thornberry, Ann Cryer, Roger Berry, Rosie Cooper, Fabian Hamilton, Greg Mulholland, Peter Soulsby, David Taylor, Bridget Prentice, Jim Dowd, Harry Cohen, Gillian Merron, Andy Reed, Kelvin Hopkins, Margaret Moran, Ashok Kumar, Phyllis Starkey, Geraldine Smith, Paul Farrelly, Jessica Morden, Paul Flynn, Sally Keeble, Ian Gibson, Charles Clarke, John Heppell, Alan Simpson, Bill Olner, Gordon Banks, Andrew Smith, Gordon Prentice, Peter Wishart, Alison Seabeck, Linda Gilroy, Jim Fitzpatrick, Sarah McCarthy-Fry, Mike Hancock, Paul Truswell, Martin Salter, Jim Murphy, David Borrow, Susan Kramer, Sandra Gidley, Janet Anderson, Claire Curtis-Thomas, Paddy Tipping, Fiona Mactaggart, Lorely Burt, Dan Norris, David Heath, Alan Whitehead, John Pugh, David Kidney, Barbara Follett, Anne McGuire, Dari Taylor, Robert Flello, Lynda Waltho, David Drew, Bill Etherington, Paul Burstow, Michael Wills, Anna Snelgrove, Brian Jenkins, Jeremy Browne, David Wright, Andrew Mackinlay, Sadiq Khan, Adrian Sanders, Matthew Taylor, Alan Campbell, Chris Ruane, John Smith, Mary Creagh, Angela Eagle, David Winnick, Bruce George, Helen Southworth, James Plaskitt, Mike O'Brien, Claire Ward, Bob Blizzard, Mike Hall, Karen Buck, Tim Farron, Ben Chapman, Robert Marris, Michael Foster, Barbara Keeley, Dr Richard Taylor and Albert Owen
Can't see it mentioned on the BBC News website?
Does the BBC only print good news for McBean? (hence no news)
Just learned that the next Labour leader has survived a poisoning attempt at the hands of one of his local opponents.
Oh, well, Leader of the Opposition, he shall be!
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