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Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Poll Boost for Cameron
There's an ICM poll in today's Guardian which is a very nice Christmas present indeed for David Cameron. Indeed, there's hardly anything in it which is discouraging. It is the best showing in 14 years in an ICM poll and shows the Conservatives eight points ahead of Labour on 40%. Even more pleasingly, the LibDems are down to 18%. Full details HERE.
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WHat makes this poll more reliable than the ones which claimed LibDem support would plummet to single figures hours before they won the Dunfermline by-election or the ones which told Hague that Save the Pound would be a real vote winner?
Sorry to rain on the parade but I really don't believe the result of any poll and I think most people who read this blog (as well as the author) realise that a poll conducted just after Blair was questioned by the police will have little to say about an election which could be 4 years away and under a different leader.
Another good piece in the Guardian:http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,1975702,00.html
Simon Hoggart's the best of the worst
Better start getting cosy with the Lib Dems Iain, even if Dave could pull off the results of a rogue poll at a General Election, 40vs32vs18vs10 would result in a hung Parliament. Dave needs to keep the Labour vote around 30 and pick up around 42 percent of the vote to get a workable majority.
'...a poll conducted just after Blair was questioned by the police will have little to say ...'
Actually it says it all.
I predict the support for Labour will collapse in the New year - 5% of people switch simply because they like to say they picked the winners.
The closer your politics are to The Guardian ethos the higher your poll ratings on ICM
"It is the best showing in 14 years in an ICM poll "
they were at 40% in August 2006 too.
Since you are a Yuppie Iain as regards Mobile Phones perhaps you should visit Nokia's luxury brand Vertu and have one made in gold or platinum
The last five ICM polls show no 'trend' or movement at all for any parties other than 1-1/2 per cent 'normal' error factor around a mean.
Keep up the complacency!
Mayorwatch makes an interesting point, but even if polls aren't accurate in absolute terms the comparison of polls over time does give an indication of the mood of the electorate.
DC has made a good start, now he just needs to start exposing quite how badly Labour are running the country!
Or it could just be due to scandal after scandal for the past 10 years, nice to see it finally sinking in to the 'joe normals'
They've done it again - on the last day of the parliamentary session, NuLab release their "Action Plan" for ID cards. Slip it out and hope no one would notice, to avoid the inevitable drubbing it would get.
Is there no end to this government's underhandedness?
Anyway, amongst the more juicy bits are:
They've realised that their envisaged computer system is doomed to failiure. So instead, they're going to try to reuse the existing DWP system, combined with the existing Passport IT system, and sticking on (presumably with gaffer tape) the asylum seekers system.
The DWP system by the way, was at the heart of this years Cash-For-fake-ID scandal:
"An internal investigation at the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has found that civil servants are colluding with organised criminals to steal personal identities on "an industrial scale".
So that's 3 times the points of failiure, 3 complex interfacing projects, 3 times the staff and hence 3 times the security risk.
Then they attempt to ensure us that the NIR (Identity Card) data that is swimming around in these systems will be kept separate and secure from all of the other data in there. Only certain people, they say, will be able to view the NIR data.
Bear in mind that this is *exactly* the functionality that they have *failed* to get implemented in the NHS system.
The use of three systems also illustrates the point that, once given a unique ID, all sorts of data can be linked together. Your medical records, records of civil penalties, travel history etc *will* follow, you can count on it.
This is confirmed in the document where it says that information could be provided to other departments or public bodies *without consent*.
Private Interrogation Centres - the government is planning to allow private companies to run interrogation centres where ID card "enrollment" can be performed. So another source of insecurity there.
Admission that biometrics aren't accurate:
"Biometric technology identifies small percentages
of what are known as ‘false matches’ or ‘false non-matches’. These need expert human assessment to ensure that matches are being made correctly."
In conclusion: The panic has begun already and they're starting to realise that what they have planned is doomed to be an expensive failiure.
Anon 12.37: you are quite right about the security risks inherent in using three databases, though the worst one is that these are old databases, containing old, contaminated data.
So even if you get clean data from the "Private Interrogation Centres" (what a lovely expression - does it make you think of extraordinary rendition, at all?), it will then be mixed with the old lousy data and so none of the data will be trustworthy.
What a stupid idea. Does anybody ever talk to security professionals, before coming up with this? Just say NO2ID...
Where was this poll conducted? Support for Cameron exists only in the South East, where the Tories already hold most of the seats. You're looking at piling up majorities in places like Witney, Wantage and Surrey Heath, of the size that Labour MPs used to get from the miners. But so what? Where are the miners now?
Good news for the Tories, 'up to a point Lord Copper' The poll also shows that despite it all, Labour have lost only 4% since the GE, if Labour only pick up 2% at the next GE, they'll probably get a working maj. Don't go ordering the curtains for No10 just yet: Mr Cameron.
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