Wednesday, June 03, 2009

How High Will Turnout Be Tomorrow?

MySpace have just emailed me to tell me of a poll of their users in which 15% of those polled said they were not intending to vote tomorrow, but because of the expenses scandal would now do so. This fits in with my general view that turnout tomorrow is going to be far higher than usual. Rather than stay at home and say "a plague on all your houses" I suspect people are going to turn out in high numbers and give politicians from the main parties a good kicking. I think turnout could be well above 50%, which would be unheard of for a European election.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have my ballot paper ready for a 7am visit;

Lib Dem x
UKIP X (or maybe Dan H,depending on what side of bed I get out of...and whose bed.....).

John Moss said...

Unscientific, but my election turnout sweepstake for the London region the majority of buyers below 30%.

£1 a go, winner take all - e-mail me.

JuliaM said...

I'm going to suggest on my own blog tomorrow that everyone gets out and votes, no matter their misgivings.

John K said...

Unlikely.

In my village I don't know of anyone other than myself who is going to vote.

ukipwebmaster said...

You're right; the turnout will be high.

David said...

Don't believe it. Maybe a little higher where there are Locals as well but here in Scotland the Euros have been a complete non-event and I would be astonished if turnout exceeded 30%. Politicians always like to think the people care about them but they just don't.

AProlefrom1984 said...

Turnout will be high amongst anti EU voters. People who don't mind the EU won't really bother.

trevorsden said...

In your dreams Mr Anonymous. LibDem, whose bed - your not Nick Clegover are you??

If a high turnout and a high UKIP and BNP protest vote - well Brown and lefties cannot say it a a vote for EU and the constitution can they.

ukipwebmaster said...

And it could be today's Sun ad wot does it:

http://www.westbournemouthukip.com/content/images/Sun%20UKIP%20Ad.jpg

politicalphilosopher said...

Hopefully higher than at my University: student turnout at the General Election was just 13%. Shameful really.

Anyhow, I cant see it being very low with the mood that the public is in; Hell hath no fury like the public scorned...

Anonymous said...

Scorned?
Hell hath no fury like a CHIPMUNK scorned.
And to think she could be the catalyst to push him out - women are always tougher than men - look at HRH Thatcher!

Liam said...

The unknown could be the local elections - maybe more people will vote to try and kick out the mainstream parties where they can, artifically increasing the Euro poll?

The lower poll will, as ever, help the mainstream parties. Labour could scrape some seats in those parts of England where turnout tumbles.

Bardirect said...

Is there an election tomorrow?

I only ask because London often gets left out and in 17 years I've never received either a knock on the door from any party, nor a leaflet for the Conservatives even though I see that one of my "local" councillors is on their East of England list.

My wife did receive something from Labour but I've even been snubbed by them!

Mirtha Tidville said...

Vote early.....vote often...

Rebel Saint said...

My fear is that politicians and political hacks like yourself will interpret a vote for anyone other than LibLabCon as a backlash against the expenses saga. In reality a lot of us would have been voting UKIP (or others) simply to register our disdain & hatred for the EU.

The EU elections are simply our referendum on EU membership. People who see it as anything else are completely blind as to the point of these sham, faux-elections. Who your MEP is makes sod all difference to anything concerning Europe.

Anonymous said...

Jessus, don't encourage them. I'm stanid as a Conservative for County Council. A low turnout will suit me just fine.

Julian Mann said...

It is a moral responsibility to vote and as a Christian I plan to. It is a matter of prayerful personal judgement how a Christian votes tomorrow, but it seems to me that the Conservative Party cannot automotically expect the support of those who are concerned to uphold Judeo-Christian values in our country.

Cllr Ross Grant said...

Myspace survey is going to be amongst the youngest age group of voters, who have a low turnout so a 15% increase here is going to be marginal.

On the doorstep the major voting groups, 50+ are disgusted and turning their back on politicians. I would expect will outweigh the yoof vote boost you report.

Gongdonkey said...

The main parties may very well get a good kicking - but only in the percentage of voting share. Because of the system they won't lose that many seats - apart from maybe Labour.

Julian Ware-Lane said...

Surprisingly perhaps Mr Dale, but I agree with you.

Anonymous said...

Here they tried to close our PO.
Anti eu feeling is running high.
You could find these pockets of anger all over Britain which don't show up on opinion polls.

Chris said...

Both me and my wife have been and voted on our way to work. This is in an area with just Euro elections. My wife reported 10 people in the polling station and when I was there there were half a dozern. That's at least 15 voters in the the first 45 minutes after polls open. Think turnout will be higher than usual as the public is in the mood to give an electoral kicking.

Charlie B said...

Anecdotal and subjective as it may be, but my polling station in Battersea this morning was significantly busier than it was when I voted on the way to work last year in the Mayoral elections...

Anonymous said...

An early sweep of the Polling Stations in Worksop by candidates is suggesting a higher turnout than expected