Monday, June 22, 2009

Speaker Prediction: The Order They Will Drop Out

That was a slightly unremarkable hour, with all ten candidates delivering speeches. I'd say the best were John Bercow, Sir George Young, Ann Widdecombe and Sir Alan Haselhurst. Margaret Beckett was perhaps the most unexpectedly disappointing, and I would be surprised if she now topped the poll.

I'm going to stick my neck out now and risk public ridicule by predicting the order in which the different candidates will fall by the wayside...

10. Sir Michael Lord
9. Richard Shepherd
8. Parmjit Dhanda
7. Sir Alan Beith
6. Sir Patrick Cormack
5. Sir Alan Haselhurst
4. Ann Widdecombe
3. Margaret Beckett
2. Sir George Young
1. John Bercow

I wonder if Beckett will last that long actually. I think Alan Haselhurst got the biggest vote, but I musn't let my bet sway my judgement. But if he can get into the final four, he is in a very powerful position as the second choice of most. We'll see.

PS Loving listening to Betty Boothroyd on the Parliament Channel.

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hazlehurst coming second loses you your stake (unless it was each way).

As the yanks say, runner up is the first loser.

Mark M said...

It's going to take an hour to count the votes?

How hard is it to bring a computer voting system in? We managed to do it at my college at university.

Anonymous said...

Bercow the best!, Are you practicing being a toadie.

TrueBlueBlood said...

Oh please god not Bercow at 1

Please no.

DMC said...

Im going to stick my neck out and state My prediction is

10. Sir Michael Lord
9. Parmjit Dhanda
8. Richard Shepherd
7. Sir Patrick Cormack
6. Sir Alan Beith
5. Sir Alan Haselhurst
4. Margaret Beckett
3. Ann Widdecombe
2. Sir George Young
1. John Bercow

Not a sheep said...

If it is Beckett then I am debating standing against her at the next general election.

Anonymous said...

Anybody except a Labour candidate!.

If Beckett wins then you may aswell close the Scottish Parliament South down, it will be an absolute sick joke.

in fact it may aswell be closed down anyway as we are ruled by the unelected, unaccountable 'Kommisionars' in the EUSSR now anyway.

We no longer deserve a country.

londonmuslim said...

I'm declaring for John Burkah

David Roe said...

Bercow?

He was the comedy turn. Young and Shepherd were vastly superior. Beckett was shocking.

James Manning said...

That Bercow's a narcissistic, greasy little man isn't he?

Henry Rogers said...

Iain,

Watching Bercow on TV just now was the first time I'd ever heard him speak. To me at least he came across as someone with plenty of rhetorical skill and absolutely no sincerity whatsoever. I had been trying hard to forget the criticism fired in his direction by his political enemies but every word he spoke, and there were far too many of them, convinced me that their hostility might be based on at least some reasonable grounds.

Whiffler said...

"PS Loving listening to Betty Boothroyd on the Parliament Channel"

Iain,

Perhaps next time you're at the Beeb you might lobby for better DAB radio coverage.

Ta

Whiffler

disgusted said...

Bercow was appalling. Promised to serve for only 9 years. That must have lost him votes as people realised they would have to hear his ghastly drone for that long.

DMC said...

BBC reporting Haselhurst could be doing well.

Nigel said...

>>Guido Laid Widdecombe<<

While recovering from that mental image, I covered my bet on Young.
(FWIW, I will now make a small mount of cash on anyone but Beckett.)

Plenty said...

My support is a three way affair. Can't vote for three though!.

Widdecombe,

Shepherd

Dhanda.

Alex said...

George Young now a clear favourite on Betfair

Sir George Young 2.12
Margaret Beckett 5.5
John Bercow 5
Sir Alan Haselhurst 21
Richard Shepherd 36
Ann Widdecombe 13
Sir Alan Beith 50
Sir Patrick Cormack 90
Parmjit Dhanda 80
Sir Michael Lord 200

Scan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Scan said...

Sir Alan Haselhurst totally lost it for me with the higher salary and less expenses. No change, unfortunately.

Richard Shepherd was my favourite by far but unfortunately I don't think he's popular enough. Ann Widdecombe would be my favourite if she was going to do it full time, however.

The surprise for me was Parmjit Dhanda and he'd be my third favourite after that speech. (Being an atheist, someone, anyone forgive me for that).

Anonymous said...

All still trying to find a leading pig to further their interests so they can all carry on troughing. You can still smell the stench from styminster, so many pigs in the sty today, normally you dont see that many.

all so so far removed from reality, serving their very own interests.

in the cesspit sty of westminster all trying to save their bacon from the abbatoir.

good riidance to the lof of them fat self seeking pigs the lot of them

Simon said...

Please read my comment on Conservative MPs Nadine Dorries political blog. The Conservative Christian MP who fought the legal upper limit on abortion to be significantly reduced and more recently has tried to expose the real John Bercow MP; the modernising and 'enlightened' liberal Conservative and 'pro- abortion' MP who is standing for Speaker of The House of Commons today. My comments are in Nadine's defence as an anon. writer called her 'a semi-illiterate working class'.......which as you can see by my comments; annoyed me greatly. I identify with her working class northern roots very much and agree 100 % with her recent comments on my MP John Bercow in his bid to become Speaker of The House of Commons.


http://blog.dorries.org/id-1444-2009_6_Mail_on_Sunday.aspx


NADINE DORIES BLOG 22.06.09..... Quote by Anon. 'Having another semi-illiterate working class speaker like Nadine would be exciting indeed. Could you imagine Nadine talking to the Queen? I can't'.

My reply to the above comment:

What's up? Don't you have the guts to put your name to your obnoxious arrogant comment? You obviously think highly of yourself. You must be a friend of John Bercow’s to have such a smug and superior attitude, either that or an upper class toff. Remember that this nation's wealth came from the industrial areas of Liverpool and Manchester. Did you ever study British History 1700 - 1900 or hear of the Industrial Revolution and the great northern pioneers and industrialist who brought such wealth to this nation. Your comment is so shallow, so arrogant; you should be ashamed of yourself. I am also a Lancashire lad from a council estate, my father was a Senior Draughtsman and a leading trade unionist who worked for 40 years for AEI and GEC in Manchester. He was also a Salford lad who went to Salford Technical University. As well as a being a very good draughtsman he was also a qualified Mechanical & Electrical Engineer. He played the piano and spoke fluent German and made Radios and fixed peoples TVs and never asked for money as they were too poor.


I went to a working class Grammar School near Bolton and unfortunately had to leave school at 16 to help with the family income. I was a local government officer and gained my accountancy qualifications at Manchester Polytechnic on a day release basis after 5 years of study and I am a real conservative with conservative and Christian values, unlike your friend and my MP John Bercow the trendy disloyal liberal. So when you insult Nadine you also insult me and millions of other hard working class people who weren't born with a silver spoon in our mouths or are so full of our own importance that we have to speak in a pedantic manner to try and impress people. I have a simple philosophy and that is; I look up to no one but also I look down to no one. If you had some real wisdom you might try and adopt the same decent philosophy and get off your smug, snobbish pedestal. I hope you are not a Tory as people like you shame the party. You are probably a champagne socialist and follow the Guardian writers with your trendy liberal friends. You need to get your feet back on the ground my friend.

Mail On Sunday Article by Nadine Dorries click below or copy and paste to your browser.

http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/article-1194464/NADINE-DORRIES-Bercow-oily-opportunist-lacking-loyalty-courage--I-speak-Tory.html

Desperate Dan said...

Auf Wiedersehen, Pet used a similar method to vote on what colour to paint the inside of their hut. They ended up with the only colour no-one wanted.

Anonymous said...

Bercow was shallower than the shallowest swimming pool that Labour has closed down and oilier than the oiliest oil rig in the North Sea that gave Thatcher
the ability to kill the unions.

If he wins the British public will march on Downing St and you will need more than the thuggish SPG to stop 5 million people with a cause.

Things are only going to get much worse.
The key to sorting this crisis out is to get Brown out of Downing St and have an election.

troymolloy said...

beckett - 74
beith - 55
bercow - 179
cormack - 13
dhanda - 26
haselhurst - 66
lord - 9
shepherd - 15
widdie - 44
young - 112

Whiffler said...

Not a bad guess, Iain.

DMC said...

So much for Bercow doing badly

I Squiggle said...

On the assumption that the 10 wouldn’t be voting (two are deputy speakers, so that wouldn’t be right, surely?) and that Martin, and perhaps the leaders of each party wouldn’t be either, that would mean maybe 20, tops, from the 646 not voting, so 626.

Based on the first results a total of 594 voted. At least 32, not including the above, didn’t. They can’t even be bothered to vote?

East Midlander said...

From another blog Young has gone into the lead according to the betting. Good if it keeps out Becket and the slimy Bercow

Fausty said...

Young could still pick up over a hundred votes, so I wouldn't rul him out yet.

Young was very impressive. Bercow gave a good speech but I found it a tad phony. Cormack's speech was also good, but he seemed to be getting bored towards the end of it - as did Beith.

Glad Dhanda's out - the most unsuitable candidate, who would throw the baby out with the bath water.

an person who did the hard way said...

Good for you Simon, I also took various qualifications at Salford Tech two nights a week Tuesday and Thursday on a push bike before cycling home to Stockport, another two nights at Openshaw Tech Monday and Wednesday again cycling home as on a trainee's wage I could not afford a car.If your upper class was educated it was probably at a Uni and did his learning during the day and spent his evenings drinking in a subsidised bar.

A person who did it the hard way said...

Sorry I misser the word " Twit " of my last posting

dioneo said...

My prediction for round 2:

Bercow - 200
Young - 125
Beckett - 100
Haselhurst - 100
Beith - 50
Widdicombe - 50

Simon said...

If John Bercow wins things will just go from bad to worst. It will be a disaster for Parliament and the future of politics in the UK. This is spiteful Labour MPs having their final bad joke as they sink with their ship. I hope after the next election there is a new vote for Speaker as John Bercow's liberal leftie views are not shared by more than 90% of Conservative MPs. How will he ever be fair or impartial when moral issues are discussed like the protection of unborn children? If John Bercow gets his way there will be abortion on demand right up to term. The militant left wing feminist will be celebrating tonight if he is the winner. For real traditional conservatives it will be a very sad day and they will be shaking their head in dispair. Just watch the smirking faces on the labour benches if he is declared the winner. But let's hope David Cameron and the Conservative Government have the last laugh when they vote for a new speaker after the next General Election..

Anonymous said...

As a mere TV viewer of PMQs, Bercow may be an odious toad, but it will be lovely not to hear Scottish voices dominating the Commons from now on.
It was just too much, hearing the repetitious "O,O,O,O,O, Ohder" every few minutes.
The McMafia are fading away.... when they lose their seats in Westminster, they'll turn to Scottish Independence supporters quick as you can say "Barnett Formula."