Saturday, June 06, 2009

Poll Shows 7 Cabinet Ministers Will Lose Seats

The News of the World has just released a poll which shows that seven Cabinet Ministers will lose their seats at the next election. ICM polled voters in 18 Cabinet Ministers' seats.

It reveals that previously loyal Labour supporters, in previously safe seats, want Brown OUT.
A swing of 12 per cent from Labour to the Tories will be enough to overturn majorities and unseat seven Cabinet Ministers, the same as Labour managed to kick out when they beat the Tories in 1997.

Those who will be out on their ears include Chancellor Alistair Darling, Justice Secretary Jack Straw, Work and Pensions Secretary John Denham, Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell and Scottish supremo Jim Murphy. Two of the new recruits to the Cabinet appointed on Friday — Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liam Byrne — will also be dumped.

And four of the Cabinet Ministers who resigned last week — Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, Geoff Hoon and John Hutton — will get the chop as constituency MPs too. Most members of the Cabinet have safe seats, with majorities averaging 7,000. But today's poll reveals they are now under intense pressure from their own powerbase to move against Gordon Brown.

It also shows almost three-quarters of Cabinet Ministers’ voters, an overwhelming 74 per cent. believe it is now time for a change. Most of those expressing an opinion say they want their MP to tell Gordon Brown to stand down — 50 per cent as against 42 per cent. Less than half (46 per cent) of voters who backed Tony Blair in 2005 would support Gordon Brown in a General Election.

Nearly two-thirds, a huge 58 per cent, of the electorate in previously safe Labour seats think Gordon Brown is doing a poor job. Almost a third, 31 per cent. will not vote at all in a General Election because of their anger over the expenses revelations. Today’s poll shows that support for the Tories in Cabinet members’ own constituencies has shot up by 20 per cent since the 2005 election.

Conservative Leader David Cameron is now clearly heading for a massive landslide, with the most recent national poll showing he would sweep up 158 seats. Those polled by ICM said they believe David Cameron has the best ideas for cleaning up the system. Labour’s vote has dropped by 17 per cent while the Lib Dems have managed to hold on to their support, falling by just one per cent. Support for minority parties has gone up nine per cent. On Friday night Gordon Brown insisted he was staying on as Prime Minister, saying he was best qualified to sort out the political crisis.

The scale of the damage caused by the expenses scandal is clear, with a massive 82 per cent of people saying they want their local MP to stand down if he or she cheated the system over exes.
Little more than a quarter of those polled, 27 per cent, want their current MP to stand again — with 40 per cent demanding a new Labour candidate.

Only a third of voters are prepared to wait until June next year for a chance to vote, which clearly shows David Cameron’s strategy of demanding an Election now is paying off.

The poll also shows that only 46 per cent of those who backed Labour in 2005 will do so again. That compares to 51 per cent for the Lib Dems and 74 per cent for the Tories...


Anonymous said...

Roll on the election...

Anonymous said...

I read that Brown said Obama beach. A freudian slip so embarrassing and cringe making that i cannot brink myself to watch the video clip.

We know that Prescott might have said something like this but was Brown always like this?? I cannot help but think he is coming down with something like Altzeimers.

Are the samples in this poll selected as per normal, is certainty to vote factored in? Otherwise its misleading.

mark said...

Prescott would have said Obollocks beach.

Anonymous said...

I hope someone half decent will stand against that disgusting anti-English Scotsman, Craig Murray, in Iain Gibson's constituency, in Norwich?
We don't want one Scottish nationalist being replaced by another Scottish nationalist, surely?

And no one should ever forget, that Gordon Brown has no democratic mandate to rule over England. That alone, makes him disgusting.

TomTom said...

Obama Beaxh should win Obama few friends on US television. they take Veterans more seriously than UK politicians do....after all in the US it is not unusual to have Britain it is

mmm said...

Mad Gordon started his hallmark press conference by naming some "World Leaders". What a sad childish name-dropping loser.

jaydeeaitch said...

I agree with a poster on one of the sites I visited today, maybe this one.

It would be great if Gordon Brown was the only Labour MP elected at the next election so he could sit on the opposition back benches explaining how well he'd done.

John K said...

Actually, Anonymous, it's the other way around: Craig Murray is from Norfolk but wishes he was Scottish.

On topic, I think it'll be much more nuanced than the polls show at present, and that the party percentages will narrow a lot as we get nearer the election.

A lot will depend on how tactically people vote. The Lib Dems found this out the hard way yesterday when they had a good national poll share but lost seats, something that has happened before.

IMHO, much will depend on whether the vote for minor parties in England drops to something like normal levels - eg will the Greens take enough away from LDs to stop them winning seats from Labour in the urban areas. The Tories will continue to to make inroads against the LDs in the rural ones, and people will vote tactically for whoever can beat Labour in some seats but not all.

Overall, I therefore think the election is much harder to call than the polls are currently saying. We are NOT yet in an election period, much as some of us wish we were.

As regards omdividual MPs, the same may apply. Ben Bradshaw may well survive in Exeter as he'd well liked locally and the opposition is split. Jacqui Smith would be a fool even to stand, however; Darling is toast; and I think there will be a huge swing to the SNP in all the Labour seats in Scotland - including Gordon Brown's, IF hes stands which I'm beginning to doubt. And don't underestimate Jack Straw's ability to manipulate postal votes in Blackburn.

Bert Rustle said...

mark June 06, 2009 8:15 PM

LOL classic!

Bardirect said...

Would like to see the back of Jowell but the local Tories campaigning is usually limited to making their candidate the "editor" of "in touch" a few weeks before the election and a bit of LibDems style pavement politics.

I've never had a canvasser knock on the door in 20 years in the constituency.

If Labour support is going to drope all seats are winnable with leg work but the Tories generally fall down on this area.

Sam Ellis said...

Doesn't bother John Hutton, he's not restanding. Plus, John Denham isn't the Work and Pensions Secretary.

Extremely poorly researched article!

Neni said...

It depends on the MP and who the likely opponent is. For example Jim Murphy might not be as at risk as this piece suggests - he's seen as a hard-working MP by his constituents, he's had the advantage of increased visibility as Scottish Secretary and the last party to hold the seat were the Conservatives. He could probably win again even if there were a nationwide swing to the Tories and a Scottish swing to the SNP.

Anonymous said...

I have every confidence that Anthony Calvert will take Ed Balls out in Morley and Outwood as well.

And I have evry intentionof being "up for Balls"

The Amazing Toad said...

Gordon Brown has taken a savaging this weekend, there can be no doubt about that. But most commentators have not given him credit for his recent environmental work, which he is committed to, on a personal level. Only today, he has constructed a wooden cabinet from reclaimed materials.

I'll get me coat.....

Simon Lewis said...

Its funny, a year before the election and we have these polls. When the Tories were in we were told they were meaningless. Why are they not now?
We all know that come the election it will be closer. We were told Cameron landslide but on Thursday local votes it would be a 20 odd seat majority. Also saw that Justine Green on BBC News right now calling for an election. Why? Why should we. If as so many want a fixed term parliament we wouldn't have this discussion. Probably why Cuddly Dave doesn't agree with it!

Anonymous said...

TomTom said:

"Obama Beaxh should win Obama few friends on US television. they take Veterans more seriously than UK politicians do....after all in the US it is not unusual to have Britain it is"

I find this an odd comment. In my family ALL males of my father's generation served in the Army, Navy or Airforce. Most were spared, but my father's cousin Lieutenant Norman Frank Brown 1/4th Bn Hampshire Regiment was killed 10/03/1943 in North Africa.

My mother was obliged to work in a factory producing military radios, and did her turn as a local air raid warden. Other females did war work or served in things like the ATS, like my Dad's sister.

I can assure you that although veterans seem largely forgotten, particularly by NuLabour who seem to have little sense of history, Mr.Brown's lapses over D-day and at the ceremonies today is an insult to many. No wonder the man was booed.

Anonymous said...

I for one would love to see Byrne lose his seat, especially after reading the story about his espresso habits and his fobbing off talents re: Human Rights issues in front of select committees; oh, and of course, not to mention......isn't he the most expensive MP in terms of expenses? I find it a little incredulous that he demanded his desk be clear at the HO so that he could spend time with his family; a person in a normal line of work isn't afforded such a privilege.

Malcolm Redfellow said...

Since, in your other thread (and, ahem!, elsewhere) you are so precise about the use of twords and their interpretion, do you not think there is a difference between "will lose" and "would lose"?

Or are polls now to be taken as definitives?

Iain Dale said...

Talk about hairsplitting. I am comfortable to leave it as will, as I have every confidence it will actually be far more than 7. Now, go on, get a life :)

Anonymous said...

Only a matter of time now for Liar Brown. And the cabinet. A quick death now for them or a slow lingering death in a few months. It's their choice, but it will happen!

Andrew said...

Does one detect a Freudian slip in La Flint's statement of support for Gordon Brown? You know, the one she gave before he didn't promote her?

Is it me or does she say 'Gordon Brown's Ca-- Government?' when telling us how delighted to serve she actually is?

Maybe she was peeved at not having been made Minister for Draping on Sofas :-).

Andrew said...

My theory is that Mandelson knows it's going to be a whitewash, and that by keeping Brown in post until Labour return to their rightful place (Opposition), he can then instal one of his little playthings as an Even Newer Labour pantechnikon to detoxify the party once again. Michael Foot, eat your heart out.

Hunter-Gatherer said...

What a useless piece of information. There is no election at the moment, people change their minds and events change perspectives. Lazy, lazy journalists - when will they start hunting for stories rather than reading each other's blog

Unsworth said...

@ Andrew

A good point. What most in the Labour Party seem not to understand is that after the General Election they'll be faced with not Brown but Mandelson. Now, have any of them the slightest understanding of what that might lead to?

Brown may cling on until an election but he'll certainly be gone after that. What moves has he made to secure his future prosperity? Some sort of EU post? How many friends does he have in Brussels? How many friends does he have, anyway? Has Mandelson made some sort of arrangement for Brown with his former colleagues?

Almost certainly Mandelson is building his team right now. From this point forwards it's just a matter of timings. Brown, by appointing Mandelson, has destroyed himself.