Monday, June 15, 2009

People Don't Trust Labour on the Economy

The Guardian has a new ICM poll out tonight showing some positive signs for the Conservatives on public attitudes to their economic policy, especially public spending.
Even Labour's once impregnable lead as the party most likely to protect public services is now narrow. While 48% of voters think Labour will protect services, 46% also think the Tories will do the same.

Labour still has a positive score on the issue of 1 point, meaning slightly more people think the party will protect services than harm them. But the Tory deficit is only 3 points, suggesting Labour warnings about the impact of Tory rule are no longer hitting home.

That is also the only issue where Labour still has the edge. On the battleground issue of controlling public debt, the Conservatives lead strongly. Only 23% think Labour is likely to cut borrowing, and 72% think it will not – a negative score of -49 points. For the Tories, 51% think the party will cut borrowing and only 43% think it will not – a positive lead of 8 points.

Other findings suggest public confidence in Labour has collapsed since similar questions were asked in October 2002. Asked whether they think the Conservatives will take the right decisions in government, 48% think they will and 45% say not – a net positive score of 3 points. For Labour, 33% think it will take the right decisions, and 62% say not – a net deficit of -29 points. The political picture has reversed since 2002, when the Tory deficit on this measure was -25 and Labour's was only -1.

The failed cabinet rebellion against Brown has hit perceptions of party unity hard. While more people think the Tories are united than think they are not – a net positive score of 21 points – Labour's negative score is a huge -61. That means only 18% of all voters think Labour is united, against 79% who say it is not. In 2002, people were far more likely to see the Tories than Labour as a split party.

Asked whether they think the three main parties are likely to clean up the political system, 46% think the Conservatives will, 47% think the Liberal Democrats will, but only 31% say this of Labour.

The prime minister's recent announcement of constitutional reform plans has not won public backing. Labour's deficit on the issue is -33, against just -3 for the Tories.

Asked whether they think the Conservatives are in tune with ordinary voters, 46% say yes. Only 32% say the same thing about Labour.

The headline figures are better for Labour though. Labour 28% (+6), Cons 39% (-1) and LibDems 18% (-7).


Plato said...

They don't but the Tories need to become uber compassionate to overcome the 'nasty' tag...

English First said...

Perhaps they should be asked which of the three main parties do you believe will listen to the people`s desires in respect of continuing membership of the EU?

Obviously they will consider the lies of Liber and now the Tories!

Bill Quango MP said...

Its all coming unravelled for ponzi Brown. His old battle tactics are looking increasingly out of date.

The least dishonest..wins

petespolitics said...

As a Labour supporter, I'm surprised we're doing this well. However, I think the poll numbers might go back down now that it has been announced that the Iraq Inquiry will be held behind closed doors. Gordon Brown has handled just about everything worse than I thought was even possible.

Anonymous said...

Labour plus 6%? That's pretty remarkable considering everything that's been going on. Once Labour start hitting the thirties - which they will - it will get harder and harder for the Tories to get a majority.


Anonymous said...

a 40/30/20 split gives the Tories a majority of just 5 seats.

a 40/31/20 leaves the Tories 5 seats short of a majority.

The Tories have a fucking hard fight on their hands.

Anonymous said...

let's assume the Tories will poll 40% on election day. then let's assume labour's core comes back - which will equate to around 33%. let's also assume the limp dims poll their usual "we've held our own" 22%

guess what? hung parliament, with a 31 seat shortfall for the Tories. The Tories HAVE to be doing better than 40%.

This latest opinion poll is yet another wake-up call for the Tories.

Liam said...

I cannot fathom why Labour are being trusted at all.

They could just tell us the truth, the fact that we all know. Government borrowing is at mammoth levels, so over the next 6 to 12 months, the decision will have to be made about what the next step will be. Higher taxes, or cut spending.

Labour denying either option is clear untruth.

petespolitics said...

Thinking about this a bit more, I suspect it might be a case of regression to the mean. In other words, there is a general level of Labour support within the population and it takes specific events to drive support below that level - that is what the PM's handling of the expenses issue was. Now that that is lower down the political agenda, Labour's support is returning to the level of its normal trend.

Anonymous said...

Why isn't anyone mentioning the fact that the onloy way Liebour can increase spending is by more pulic debt and higher taxes ?

Next time Brown at PMQ trots out "Liebour investment, Tory cuts" Cameron should simply ask "Where are you getting the money from then ?"


kasou said...

To Repeat..

Why isn't anyone mentioning the fact that the onloy way Liebour can increase spending is by more pulic debt and higher taxes ?

Next time Brown at PMQ trots out "Liebour investment, Tory cuts" Cameron should simply ask "Where are you getting the money from then ?" bloody obvious our mega brained MPs never thought of it..and ask again and again all the same question...see how many answers Brown can come up with...tactics boys...use some are up against Mandy now...again.

cherami said...

Be interesting to know where this +6 for Labour comes from. People who voted BNP and feel secretive about it?

Worrying that the Tories aren't doing a lot better, though.

Ian said...

According to this mornings Glasgow Herald,

"NEWS from Westminster, where we hear Gordon Brown has sent an envoy to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

It seems the Prime Minister wants to learn how to get elected even when the country votes against you."

neil craig said...

If the Conservatives were to improve Britain's abysmal growth rate (2.5% in a good year when the world average is 5%) then automaticaly there would be more money available for the NS etc. Indeed that is the only way there could be.

Whether Mr Cameron understands that is something I have seen little sign of.

Anonymous said...

O/T but received from BBC:

Thanks for your e-mail regarding the BBC News Channel on the 7 June.

We understand you felt our coverage of Gordon Brown's speech to Labour activists was biased in favour of the Labour Party.

The pressure on Gordon Brown has been intense and mounting this week and so to hear from the man at the centre of the story was clearly a journalistic necessity.

As a live event on the News Channel it would have been irresponsible not to take it up in full. That said, it was clear that this was an orchestrated event with only "loyal" activists and politicians allowed to be there.

However this was a point that we emphasised in our introduction to the event, during the event itself and in our analysis afterwards, including in our later packages. Our correspondents spoke of "loyal, supportive, sympathetic" people in the audience. Some went further, talking of a carefully stage-managed event and even a "parallel universe" where everything in the Prime Minister's world was rosy.

Furthermore, while the event was ongoing, one of the on-screen captions read:


PM appears before supportive audience in London

So the Prime Minister’s meeting was an essential part of the main story of the day. But we recognised - and made very clear to the audience - that this was an event carefully managed and orchestrated by Labour.

Our obligation is to provide impartial coverage and we do that through providing consistent news judgments and offering critical analysis. In this case we would have taken entirely the same approach regardless of which party was in power or had it been an opposition leader whose leadership was under intense scrutiny in the same circumstances.

We'd like to assure you that we've registered your comments on our audience log. This is the internal report of audience feedback which we compile daily for all programme makers and commissioning executives within the BBC, and also their senior management. It ensures that your points, and all other comments we receive, are circulated and considered across the BBC.

Thanks again for taking the time to contact us with your concerns.


BBC Complaints

BushBaby said...

I am so fatigued and bored by Brown's serial lies that anything he says and especially writes that I take absolutely no interest in anything he has to say,such is the effect of this probably the most incompetent, dysfunctional flawed being ever to be PM we have had bar none worse even than Chamberlain.