Monday, June 22, 2009

Speaker: Result of the First Ballott

Bercow 179
Young 112
Beckett 74
Haselhurst 66
Beith 55
Widdecombe 44
Dhanda 26
Shepherd 15
Cormack 13
Lord 9

This seems to me to be bad news for Margaret Beckett and good news for Sir George Young. I think Sir Alan Haselhurst can also be very happy at his fourth place showing. Assuming Ann Widdecombe and Alan Beith continue to the next ballot there are now 63 votes to distribute around the other six candidates. My hope and expectation is that at least a third of these would go to Sir Alan, so he would end up with between 85 and 90. Sir George Young will also receive a good proportion, but I can't see many going to Beckett and Bercow.

Very annoyingly, I am speaking at an event later on so I reckon I am going to miss the result of the second ballot. Damn and blast.

51 comments:

Rog said...

So Labour MPs voting for Bercow just to enrage the opposition?

Anonymous said...

Why so many abstentions, and who on earth spoiled their ballot paper? My god, what a joke.

Anonymous said...

Young will win

TrueBlueBlood said...

Anyone but Bercow......

Michaela said...

Aa Betty just asked on BBC P- Why so many absentees?

Michaela said...

Anonymous-We know who it was. Mr Charisma who impressed Iain so much 3 weeks ago

KP said...

it was John Mann who spoilt his paper as in his view ever candidate was 'dismal'

Stepney said...

Shepherd, Cormack and Lord votes to Young in 2nd ballot.

Bercow won't pick up many - he's a love him hate him one vote pony - 1st choices only.

Looks like a shoo in for George Young in my humble

Michaela said...

KP-You gottit

I Squiggle said...

Ooh, new thread already. Just to recap what I said on ‘tother, 52 didn’t vote (or spoil their paper). Allowing for the candidates, ex-speaker and various party leaders, that’s at least 32, if not more who couldn’t be bothered. Strewth.

OK, anyone but Bercow..

Anonymous said...

Assuming that the candidates don't get a vote, over 6% failed to cast a vote?

Anonymous said...

I thought the MPs would either do the right thing or vote in a partisan manner. Well they have shown that they are unworthy to rule the country, what a bunch of s**ts.

Whiffler said...

I dunno - anyone prepared to go for the young untrained is just as likely to go for Bercow.

The non-voters may include those whho have announced they're going. They'd get slagged if they voted.

Mind you, they're due a slagging.

East Midlander said...

The spoiled ballot paper was by a slightly deranged MP named Mann. He only wanted to get on TV to prove to his electorate that he goes to work on a Monday !

WV "douse" what we would not do if we found an MP on fire.

Anonymous said...

5 Sinn Fein MPs have not taken their seats and are not entitled to vote.

PM has said he is not going to vote.

Several other NI Members have ministerial portfolios or MLA responsibilities at Stormont today.

There are in any case only 644 Members at present: Glasgow NE and Norwich N seats are both vacant.

Michaela said...

Who is Daniel Brittain and why don't we see him more often?

Michaela said...

Iain can get 25-1 Haselhurst now. These are the latest odds from The Magic Sign. Bercow is odds on


John Bercow 1.66
Sir George Young 2.50
Margaret Beckett 21.00
Ann Widdecombe 26.00
Sir Alan Beith 26.00
Sir Alan Haselhurst 26.00

Michaela said...

Hills have Ann W as complete outsider

John Bercow 8/11
Sir George Young 6/5
Margaret Beckett 16/1
Sir Alan Haselhurst 25/1
Ann Widdecombe 33/1
Sir Alan Beith 33/1

Erskine May said...

Alan Beith's vote would suggest some tribal voting by Lib Dem MPs.

Not a sheep said...

Surely ballot rather than ballott; are you over-concentrating on the number of t's in Beckett?

Liam said...

A very good showing for Dhanda, who I suspect has shown a talent which could come in useful in the coming months. His genuine modernising agenda did a lot to show up the pretend and piecemeal suggestions made by the other candidates.

Jon Harvey said...

let's be clear - under first past the post - Bercow would already have won...

Rog said...

...But it's not FPTP, is it?

Presumably MPs have enough wit to grasp the concept and vote accordingly, keeping their 1st/2nd/etc. choices in mind.

English First said...

Hideous Beckett! Despised here!

Anyone but that!

Michaela said...

Bercow is drifting. Money for George Young who may be odds on after Round 2 which Jon Craig has described as the "taqctical round" following "The Beauty Conntest"

John Bercow 1.72
Sir George Young 2.37
Margaret Beckett 26.00
Sir Alan Beith 26.00
Sir Alan Haselhurst 26.00
Ann Widdecombe 34.00

Pete Wass said...

lets be greatful it isn't first past the post.

I'm surprised Cormack didn't do better, but my gut feeling is that it could end up as a Young v. Haslehurst fight. I'd expect Widdie and Beith to both drop out after the next vote.

I doubt Beckett will go up too much, unless the Bercow supporters start drifting.

Anonymous said...

Let's be clearer: if the electorate had been informed in advance that they were operating under FTPT rules we have no idea who would already have won.

Jon Harvey said...

"...But it's not FPTP, is it? Presumably MPs have enough wit to grasp the concept and vote accordingly, keeping their 1st/2nd/etc. choices in mind"

Sure - that is the case - but the point is made.

Now how about the less political / less informed electorate - why do we trust them to vote under FPTP? Aren't results under this system therefore unfair / disproportionate / resulting in MPs elected by minorities

There is tactical voting all round.

Let's have a clear system - for voting for MPs at least!

Jon Harvey said...

Why 'anyone but Bercow' ??

There seems to be lots of flim flam about Mr Bercow - but where are the facts? I have just browsed 'they work for you' (http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/john_bercow/buckingham) - and this interesting result comes up:

Possible Friends: Shows which MPs voted most similarly to this one in the 2005-present, Westminster Parliament. This is measured from 0% agreement (never voted the same) to 100% (always voted the same). Only votes that both MPs attended are counted. This may reveal relationships between MPs that were previously unsuspected. Or it may be nonsense.

Agreement Name Constituency Party
100.0% Willie Rennie Dunfermline & Fife West LDem
97.3% David Cameron Witney Con
97.0% David Davis Haltemprice & Howden Con
96.3% David Curry Skipton & Ripon Con
95.9% Ian Taylor Esher & Walton Con

http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?id=uk.org.publicwhip/member/1463#divisions

So if Bercow votes in line with Mr Cameron & Mr Davies - why all the fuss?

Oldrightie said...

Now what have I been saying for weeks?

http://oldrightie.blogspot.com/2009/06/i-want-beckett-or-bercow-says-jimmy.html

Michaela said...

Pete Wass-I'll give you 100-1 Haselhurst. He won't even make the final round. Even MPs seek a bit of charisma in these contests and he's made too many enemies as a Dep.

DM Andy said...

Why wouldn't many of the 63 votes go to Beckett or Bercow, surely the majority of the 26 Dhanda votes were from Labour MPs.

dioneo said...

@Jon Harvey: Hard-right Tory MPs hate him (and will vote for either Beckett or Young to stop him, even though both are objectively more left-wing) because he used to be one of them but has become more sensible. And mainstream Tories think he's too young.

I reckon Widdicombe and Beith will be knocked-out in this round (and that Beith's vote will go down in Beckett's favour). Haselhurst and Beckett out in the next round, then a close final between Bercow and Young.

I think it's a weird result, because Bercow and Beckett are both blatant troughers, and Young and Haselhurst are as guilty as Michael Martin in letting the troughing fester.

Anonymous said...

groan the berk is ladbrokes fav at 4/6.

Michaela said...

Anonymous-You're the berk for not reading a previous message

Bercow said...

Wow - they've already started swinging behind Bercow and Young, with everyone else going down. Surely just one more round between those two now.

Michaela said...

Pete Wass or indeed Iain-Still fancy a bet on AH?!

dioneo said...

Becket - 70 (-4)
Beith - 46 (-9)
Bercow - 221 (+42)
Haselhurst - 57 (-9)
Widdicombe - 30 (-14)
Young - 174 (+62)

dioneo said...

James Landale speculating Haselhurst will drop out to "avoid humiliation".

Michaela said...

Haselhurst now 100-1 but i'll give Iain 10000-1

John Bercow 1.40
Sir George Young 2.75
Sir Alan Haselhurst 101.00
Margaret Beckett 101.00
Sir Alan Beith 101.00

Michaela said...

dioneo-Iain's humiliation or his own?!

dioneo said...

michaela - I'm not sure Iain's humiliation would be newsworthy. ;-)

David in Barcelona said...

Well, Iain, the upright Alan has just gone the way of all Tory (blagging) grandees.
A bit of sexism creeping in. "In the last European Parliament the Liberal Democrats sat in the same group as the Swedish Feminist Initiative, who believe that marriage is a form of male oppression and so should be banned and that there should be a special tax on men to recompense women for the violence men exclusively inflict on society." Exaggerated perhpas, but any worse than the many male MPs who think they are entitled to parliamentary relief (think prezzer, bojo, ad nauseam)? Also, a women who changes constituencies is, naturally, "whoring".
La Dona et Mobile = she's a prozzie

Marc said...

Let's go....Bercow!!!!

Ian Keen said...

Bercow to romp home.....

What a corker!!!

Michaela said...

dioneo-Labour still odds on for the Glasgow By-Surely SNP are worth a punt?

Labour 1.61
SNP 2.20
Independent 17.00
Conservatives 101.00
Liberal Democrats 101.00

Anonymous said...

"Very annoyingly, I am speaking at an event later on". I bet they don't find you as annoying as Moocow.

Michaela said...

Bercow has won. Note time of this message. Bercow has won
REJOICE! He's a real maverick and will surprise you all

Anonymous said...

Three in a row for Labour. Nice one Gordo.

Anonymous said...

Loks like a little fourth former in that chair.Can't wait to see him in his tights.

Jason O'Mahony said...

Yet another election where anti-PR people insist on using a voting system where all votes count, as opposed to FPTP. But it's not the same, they protest! The Speaker must have the confidence of a majority of the House! I agree. The votes of all MPs must count, but not the votes of all voters? Shoudl a Prime Minister not have the confidence of a majority of voters?