I've just watched the Chief Executive of XL at a live news conference, explaining why his company has had to go into administration. As a result, 65,000 people are stranded overseas and several thousand people will lose their jobs. He is blaming the collapse on the oil price rise, which has cost his company £80 million. Yesterday, we were told that unemployment could rise by 300,000 by the end of the year to two million.
On a human level, the misery caused by this collapse is unimaginable. And those who think that top businessmen are robots who feel nothing should have watched this press conference. The man who created the company and ran it successfully for so long, was constantly on the brink of breaking down in tears. He clearly believes there were dark forces at work - people who have profiteered from the oil price hike. In these circumstances people always hit out and blame others. But in this case, he does seem to have a point.
I have written before about talking ourselves into a deep recession. We should still try to avoid that, but this collapse may well be the first in a line.
53 comments:
His is not the only business struggling - and likely to fail - as a result of the economic legacy of one G Brown. The oil price rise is only part of the problem. The oil price has come down, and it would come down more if it wasn't for the operation of a cartel. But in the background to the failure of XL will be a weak bank unable and unwilling to lend. It won't lend because it itself is in trouble having feasted on cheap debt for the last 11 years. Behind the cheap debt - as in underpriced money - is, guess who? Yep. One G Brown.
Come on Gordon. Stand up and say 'I'm sorry. I screwed up. My policies of tax, spend, borrow and redistribute have failed, spectacularly. I will resign now to let someone else run the country's finances and work to put right my financial legacy'. Some bloody hopes.
Unlike Northern Rock, XL is a Southern Company in Tory areas- Gordon & Alistair won't give a damn.
But whose going to sponsor West Ham now?
It's a shame but airlines know very well that oil prices can rise and fall. That's why many levy "fuel surcharges". If they didn't plan for this normal event, they made a big mistake.
But you are right to point to rising unemployment and misery. We've got really big issues to deal with on the economy. All the government is doing is adjusting stamp duty and trumpeting schemes to insulate a few lofts. It's not good enough.
Now a government can't - and shouldn't - do everything. It can't react to every crisis.
But just as the oil price rises and falls, unemployment goes up and down: a sensible government would, for example, plan for this when making budget forecasts on borrowing and taxes. Sadly the system seems politicised, a rose-tinted view comes from HMT. Meanwhile policies are being designed to help Brown, not us. He only appears to make small talk on insulation, he's silent on the future of the economy.
And poor old West Ham lose their principal sponsor.
Looks like you will be able to blame Gordon "lagger" Brown for West Ham's inevitable troubles this season Iain!!
I think we could have some fun with suggesting a new sponsor....
I would go with BAE....the shore up the defence!!? :-)
What did Thatcher blame her depression on or recession depending on which side you were on.
I bet this boss will not dip into his large bank balance to help the people come home or will he retire to a nice life somewhere.
But yes Labour has failed but not yet as bad as Thatcher.
Holiday companies operate on tight margins not always prudently.I doubt it was the oil price alone that caused the problem.It will be the banks and may well be partly the operation of the company.I am not suprised that this sort of company is among the first to go.
When you think of how highly geared a lot of groups are in the service sector is a frightening thought just how bad this could get.
I don't understand why we didn't use the SAS to take that bast*rd Soros out when he was 'king over the £. Surely we should learn from that and deploy our best assassins against the oil and gas speculators.
We had our monthly board meeting yesterday.The recession hit us abruptly in around mid July.All ordered to look into cutting overheads,chasing invoices,redeploying staff into different work,no trainees or any recruitment this year and hoping no redundancies.We have been going for over a century but we are worried.It is good to know that the Guardian's public appointments supplement still reveals a land of milk and honey in the public sector.
What did Brown say about no more boom and bust?He has failed so miserably that anyone with the least sense of shame would have resigned and retired from public life.
He also said that unlike doing business in France, in the UK he was not allowed to add the increased fuel costs onto the final invoice.
Although no one likes to be asked to pay up more money, I am SURE EVERYONE now stranded or without a holiday would have gladly paid the increased fuel costs when faced with the reality of the situation. Surely a much much lesser of two evils?
As XL(UK) had been talking to the CAA for several weeks Gordon Brown would have been well aware that XL was about to fail, could he not have insisted that the CAA kept the aircraft flying until all the customers had been brought home? I am sure the goernment could have got the Manchester bound flight into Manchester rather than Paris if it had tried.
"He clearly believes there were dark forces at work - people who have profiteered from the pil price hike. In these circumstances people always hit out and blame others. But in this case, he does seem to have a point."
This is the kind of comment I'd expect to see on a leftist blog, Iain. This is business: good businesses thrive, poor businesses fail. Those who have profited from the oil price hike have done so because they understand business; XL have failed because they didn't.
Don't fall for this leftist claptrap that companies have somehow gained from the oil price hike for nothing - they've profited because they've worked hard and are good at what they do. Unless you have a better way of running society?
Will people give up trying to blame the recession on others 'talking down the economy'. Recessions aren't caused by negative chat - they're caused by schoolboy economic errors.
The western capitalist model is in the process of melting down - see Northern Rock, Bear Stearns, 11 regional banks in the US incluidng the biggest retail bank in California (Indy Mac) and the others in the process of going out of business right now. These, by looking at share prices at least, include Lehman Brothers and the massive Washington Mutual.
Unfortunately, 300,000 will be chicken feed in due course. Add another zero and some!
And I'm not being negative - I'm being realistic! The general public simply has no idea just how serious this credit CRISIS is.
WE are in a terrible situation, where so many folk to keep up with their neighbours and encouraged so to do by Brown's reassurance that all was brilliant economy wise, have used their houses as cashpoint over the Blair/Brown years.All growth in the economy came from money from increased individual borrowings, and now pay back time....when not only folk will have to repay those debts , but many will lose their jobs.Government this year will add to the national Debt over half the cost of running the NHS in 2008 i.e. £50,000,000,000 THis for the next generation to pay off in addition to the salaries and final salary scheme pensions of the 600,000 extra public sector that this government recruited.Chancellor Darling is right...we are in the worst economic conditions in living memory , concealed through spin and lies by Gordon Brown but as each month unfolds, the public will begin to realise that truly we have been financially destroyed as a nation by 2 men.....a weak Prime Miminster In Blair who didnt have the guts to sack the treacherous Brown, and Brown, whose student days foretold what sort of man he was and is.
The airline industry as a whole has lost money since it was founded, and in almost every decade of operation.
So hardly surprising companies there are among the first to be hit by high oil prices and weakening economy.
XL is not the first- several smaller airlines already went bust in UK this year, Alitalia has basically gone bust, and there will certainly be more during the winter, as airlines basically only make money in the summer.
West Ham will be looking for a new sponsor then.
Iain, do you feel that David Cameron and the Tories had a lucky escape when GB refused to call a general election last autumn?
It seems unlikely that Cameron would have been able to avoid many of the issues we're seeing today, and despite being able to blame the previous administration the public would still expect him to "fix" the economy (which isn't an overnight job).
The constant calls for a general election that we saw last year seem to have faded somewhat, presumably because Tories realise that Labour are going to be dragged down by the economic woes without any need for more than an occasional nudge from the Tories?
I wonder how DC would be feeling this morning were he waking up in No. 10...
There is alot more to the collapse of XL.com than is being reported in the press. It has been coming for months. Whilst it may be blamed on oil pricing, there have things going on in the background in readiness for it. Believe me ... I know
I listened to the press conference too and I think the CEO said they had only hedged 40 percent of the fuel cost -if XL had hedged 100% then it may have survived. If the oil price had halved instead of doubling they would have made a fortune. My understanding of what the CEO said was they took an oil price risk that they could not pass on after passengers had booked and did not hedge - the risk went against them and they went bankrupt. It is tough on everyone but was a known risk that could have been avoided.
Barclays offered XL longer-term credit lines.
The trade creditors got frit and pulled the plug.
Other companies, particularly retailers, like Debenhams and DSG, are in deep doo-dah much more at the mercy of their trade creditors.
Yes, but the price of oil today is about $100 per barrel. At $100 or so, it is 50 per cent higher than last year and 10 times the level of a decade ago.
It may be that the oil companies are partially to blame for the collapse of XL, but my guess is that there are many more factors involved - including load factors.
Still, rumour has it that XL is not the only one....
I lived through 1973/74 in the financial industry.
We then had rising inflation, oil prices rocketing, a secondary banking collapse( when the Bank of England launched its lifeboat to save around 15 failing banks) and on top of that a string of holiday companies going bust because of the oil costs- do you remember Court Line?
What comes round, goes round.
Iain,
Airlines come and go, particularly those below flag carrier level, although Sabena and Swissair have failed and other state carriers have run at a loss for years. Some of the transatlantic business class only carriers went down a few months ago and it isn't so long since Airtours went to the wall - ata time when G Brown said the economy was booming and the oil price was much lower.
The price of oil isn't such a problem per se for airlines because all airlines have to use it and all methods of getting from A to B require energy, usually oil, but a high oil price might dampen demand which would cause problems for any highly geared business, and it would hurt an airline with poor load factors or the wrong sort of plane for the routes it was flying.
I don't know much about XL, but it was bought out in an MBO and its net worth in the best of times was about the same as one of the aircraft in its fleet. It didn't have to underperform for long before it was bound to come unstuck.
Of course Iain the collapse of your beloved Hammers shirt sponsors may ahve some effect on your team.
The collapse of XL also has repercussions for West Ham as shirt sponsors.
Don't suppose you have a spare few million?
You have hit the nail on the head Lola. It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
I agree, Iain. Things are bad but the media is partly to blame. But then they and estate agents are to blame for the housing crisis.
The Channel tunnel has a major fire and is OOA for the forseeable future.
Britain's third larget tour operator collapses, leaving tens of thousands stranded around the world..
And not a dicky bird from the Government.
Where is Ruth Kelly, the transport secretary? Where is Gordon, is he more concerned that people should be stuffing balloons up their chimneys?
The price manipulations in oil, the dollar and currencies are not all the fault of Brown. He is after all only carrying out his instructions from Brussels.
In effect the price hikes and falls are taxes. The big guys get the little guys to panic by moving prices up and down in illogical sequence, then the little guys (like this businessman) buy or sell (Often forwards) in response, thinking they are observing a real price trend.
As soon as the little guys are committed to sell (or buy) then the big traders swing the price the other way and rake in huge profits while the little guys get cleaned out.
Banks have to rebuild their balance sheets urgently. Governments are permitting them to trade forwards with tiny downpayments - around 5%. Normally at times of high speculation, these downpayments are increased to 50% or so to kill the speculators.
But worldwide nothing is being done, as governments are hoping the banks will rebuild their damaged positions from the credit crunch and the subprime, by ripping off you and me and the businesses that supply our needs.
It is taxation by another name, making trading conditions impossible for ordinary businesses, and life impossible for billions of poor across the globe who cannot afford rice, fuel or anything else for their daily survival.
It is the ultimate sign that the lunatics are running the asylum that governments no longer act to kill speculation in the US or in Europe and elsewhere.
It is tantamount to a global conspiracy to cheat ordinary people out of their basic needs to feed corporate giants who have governments in their pockets.
The economic consequences will be huge and so too will the political effects. People will never forgive the political systems that allow governments to destroy the societies in their care through permitted speculation.
It will crash the EU and the Euro in time. The USA will lose control of the financial system which it using to demolish the rest of the world trying feed the greed of its hungry collapsed banks. Foreigners are quitting the scene there in droves sending a bank a day to the wall.
The American century is over.
Avoided travelling by *yan Air this summer for just this reason.
Went by Eurostar instead. (Stuck 2hrs at Lille Station waiting for doors to open ).
PS Iain the BBC is reporting Labour MPs asking for the precise rules to depose a leader. Must just be academic interest eh ?
Oh, come now. It was an MBO only 18 months ago, and had 'risen without trace'. I don't think I had never heard of this business, and was astonished by today's claims that it was the "third largest travel group" in the country.
The MD's performance on the 'World at One' just now was utterly disingenuous, throwing stones at the CAA because XL wasn't allowed to use its planes to repatriate customers. It could not be done because the company did not have the money to buy fuel, pay airport charges, pay its staff and so on. It was bust, and the CAA and adminsitrators would be castigated for throwing good money after bad.
I fully expect it eventually to emerge that the business was woefully undercapitalised from the start, had expanded far too fast and simply did not have the depth of management either to sustain or to anticipate the repercussions of the global downturn which began only months after the MBO in December 2006. Given their limited history, were they able [for example] to hedge effectively against oil price rises, as other airlnes do?
Yes, we have had the same old pictures of disconsolate folk grizzling about having 'lost their holidays', complaining that they weren't told about it. Almost all will be reimbursed. Almost all those stuck in Eye-beetha or wherever will be brought back, courtesy of XL's CAA bond.
It's sad and all that, but it happens, and it happens to be one of the few recent catastophes for which Gordy Broon isn't responsible - until, of course, we discover that he sent a fulsome letter of support to the management last week!
Bah, humbug. I'll take my miserable old curmudgeon's hat off now. It really doesn't suit me.
On W@1 the liquidator said that the company failed both solvency tests: it could not pay its debts as they fell due and its liabilities exceeded its assets.
It is surprising that it lasted as long as it did. It was also said that 24 air and travel cos. have failed so far this year. Which will be next?
I just purchased a transatlantic ticket... the taxes on it were astronomical!
The government just kept taxing and taxing our travel... now it has come back to haunt them...
After all this gloom look on the bright side. Those wizzkids at CERN are going to try out their little experiment at full power soon. When they do that all our troubles will be over. There will be no globe left for any global warming - or global credit crisis either.
One set of scientists say that there is nothing to fear, the other talk about the chance that our present ideas are all wrong and we might discover 'new physics' (ie create a few black holes which grow).
It's all a bit like the global warming 'science' - or economics for that matter - at root all a load of bull.
And as Gordo spirals into the black hole you can hear the fading words 'keeping on doing the j..'
Where i live we have several companies making bricks and things for the construction industry.
In recent weeks they have either mothballed their operations, sacked staff, cut shifts of remaining staff.
Very little of this is reported in the press.
Remember the good old days where the BBC? used to have a weekly roundup of firms sacking people and unemployment levels?
Actually, small tour operators go out of business all the time - the ATOL fund is kept busy. This is the first crash of a large operator for many years. It is certain that TUI and Thomas Cook are too robust to follow XL; and I would be surprised if any more UK passenger airlines hit the deck, even though some of their EU counterparts might. It does revive the debate about the illogicality of requiring charter carriers to stump up for an ATOL bond to protect passengers while exempting scheduled airlines, which is why 10,000 passengers who booked direct with XL Airways could find themselves without compensation
XL banked 'early' money by selling seats up to a year in advance without any provision for subsequently imposing or coming back with a fuel surcharge; monthly lease payments to make on aircraft on top of short credit on fuel - not a happy recipe and lots of now wretched passengers stuck and one poor girl, just now on Classic Fm who thought she was about to depart on her honeymoon......
Iain, the airline business is cyclical, always has been always will be. It's why airlines like Court Line went down in the 60s, Laker in the 80s, Air Europe in 1991… and many others in between.
The head of XL may believe there are dark forces at work, but since the airline industry was deregulated this is what you get because aircraft manufacturers need to sell more and more aircraft. It causes over capacity, which needs a growing or at the very least a stable-ish market to survive. As soon as things start to turn down then the inevitable happens...airlines and tour operators go bust - those that are vertically integrated are especially venerable.
The fact is that forward bookings are now the biggest issue. Airlines have survived the summer because advance bookings were not affected by the loss of confidence coupled with the realities of the credit crunch. This is not now the case. People are not booking travel like they were. Watch over the coming weeks as we start to get a rash of advertising from easyjet, Ryanair et al as they attempt to by market share.
Short answer to a very complex set of circumstances and a longer ne would bore everyone.
I predicted this on my blog 10 days ago. Hope you all read it and took the advice!!!
I suspect that real unemployment is a lot higher than the government admits.
Then we have the many extra children doing pointless degrees who under other circumstances would be signing on, and the best part of a million extra non-jobs for local government.
I am one of many facing an uncertain future at work, waiting for the next lot of redundancies. Looking at the job sites on the internet the jobs I could do are on averagepaying even less than two years ago when I last had to find work. I also suspect that being two years older than I was last time is not helping.
Even if the spinless labour MPs revolt Brown will never have to walk round the supermarket trying to work out which t-bags are the cheapest. (own brand tea is a cheaper cupa than own brand coffee if you use the bags twice)
He will never have to worry if paying the train fair to a job interview will take him over his overdraft limit. In the winter will he sit in the cold because he is not in the coe labour voter groups that qualify for hand outs.
Iain,
sad though it is to see a hard-nosed businessman apparently losing it, there is nothing in the least bit surprising about what's happened.
The economics of low cost are flakey unless you dominate (like Ryanair or easyJet). And the underlying structural problems of any industry are magnified in a downturn/recession (low-cost's susceptibility to fixed costs like fuel).
Much as the credit crunch has exagerrated banking issues, an unwillingness to lend is no more than classic cycle behaviour. All banks draw in their horns when times are tough, and the crunch has probably made it easier for people to come to terms with big victims.
Much as I loathe Broon for being a flawed, obsessive, power-crazed, fundamentally little man, he ain't to blame for this. It's the product of an economic cycle writ large.
Broon should go. Not because he caused this mess, but because he shows disturbing signs of reverting to political type and thinking you can take on the market. You can't.
Remember Margaret Thatcher. She was the only Prime Minister honest and tenacious enough to allow the market to run its course.
Anonymous said...
"Remember the good old days where the BBC? used to have a weekly roundup of firms sacking people and unemployment levels?"
Yeah, maybe they'll do it again...
... When there's a Tory Government. Naturally.
280,000 New Labour voters lose their chav holidays to Menorca.
Good. Welcome to the new world, guys. Ask Gordon for your money back, I'm sure he'll tell me I have to pay.
"280,000 New Labour voters lose their chav holidays to Menorca.
Good. Welcome to the new world, guys. Ask Gordon for your money back, I'm sure he'll tell me I have to pay".
lol
Will this mean Southend and Margate will have an unexpected boom?
Listen lads, I've been poor all my life, & always will be (I like it that way, money is both vulgar & corrupting and SO common). I couldn't give a f*** if 200,000 tasteless chavs are stuck out of the country, good riddance. They mangle the language, pollute the electorate, watch Big Brother, purchase shoddy goods & read poor quality papers. F*** 'em. Either that or they can walk home.
Unless F1 goes tits up, I remain hopeful. As for the blubbing softie on the W@1... aaaahhh diddums, is your pension still OK? Yeh, thought so...
We actually knew this was going to happen, About 3 weeks ago, XL suddenly cancelled all their Winter long Haul flights, Then rumours of their 'Whole' Winter flights not running.
I have been in this business alot of years, And remember Dan Air Air Europe - The 1990's collapsed Airlines.
It will be around 5 years before we see any kind of growth & hopefully new Airlines created, By maybe some of the Airlines that have recently dissapeared.
Aviation is in the 'Blood' and you will find that most Airline Bosses, will create Airline after Airline.
It's going to be a 'Hard' Winter all round, And with the 'Christmas' carry on upon us, That is no help financially anyway.
I personally don't enjoy the 'Christmas' season.
Sadly The reason XL could not fly the passengers home is, That once you are in Administration then Technically your Aircraft Insurance is void.
I feel for those passengers, But Feel more for those 1,700 without jobs.
Good Luck To Everyone.
Best Regards.
Mark.
I think you've been conned by the Chief Execs crocodile tears. The guy is widely hated in the industry for his sharp practises - servicing planes with cheap substandard parts and unqualified staff from Eastern Europe. He has made a lot of money but has never left any company with a long term future after he's been done with them. Looks like this time he failed to get out before it all collapsed on his head.
Morrisox sair:- "Much as I loathe Broon for being a flawed, obsessive, power-crazed, fundamentally little man, he ain't to blame for this. It's the product of an economic cycle writ large."
Not quite so. Broon's lunatic policies will have agravated this situation and helped drive it. Specifically his cheap money arising from his flawed mandate to the BoE; his tax and spend binge financed in alrge part from taxation of capital and the consequent inflationary spike, largely hidden by deflationary forces brought about by the trade liberalisation of the old communist world.
You are right though, he is and always has been just NBG. And waht is so delicicious is that everyone else, including his party and supporters, is now realising it. La Toynbee for example. Dope.
"He is blaming the collapse on the oil price rise, which has cost his company £80 million"
Utter nonsense. There's plenty of ways in which he could have hedged the oil price. Even if the collapse was 100% attributable to "the oil price" (which seems unlikely), then the collapse was entirly due to XL's incompetence in not hedging. XL were oil price speculators who lost.
Seems to have been a widespread problem though - Ryanair thought that $40 oil was a "spike". Which in turn is a reflection of the lack of serious debate about energy policy - too many ostriches are sticking their head in the ground, and getting their backsides spanked as a result.
You just have to feel sorry for the people who've lost their jobs and the holidays ruined just because XL weren't taking advantage of the opportunities offered by the "evil speculators" in the oil futures markets.
why should tax payers bail out XL staff and customers
why should we pay to ship them home
why should we pay redundancy for the pilots and staff
nanny state or what
why should the private sector lean on our hard earned taxes
yet more public sector workers/customers
the staff should get no redundancy no pay
then they would work for XL for low wages thus put it back in profit
Are we proud to be capitalist or do we want socialism...
can anyone name a chief exec/directors who did not get a huge bonus in the top 100 despite their companies doing badly this year
capitalism I love it
True, But how much do you Hedge?
Iv'e been in this Biz, Alot of years, As I said earlier, The Arlines forecasted their Fuel Price at $80 a Barrel, And were competant enough to run at that.
Then you get BP - The Culprit of all this 'mes's putting up the price to $120 a Barrel.
More ore less overnight, Thus giving the Airlines 'Inadequate' time to pay that extra bit.
When your Fueling a 757 with 20 Tonnes to fly down to Palma and back, And you have say 15 of them in your fleet,that price sure adds up in volumes!
Or even more a 747 with 4 engines at a Fuelburn of 150 Gallons a minute on T/Off per engine.
Luckily most carriers could see this all coming and quickly phased out the 'Fuelburners' and replaced them with fuel efficient Airbuses or economical turboprops like Flybe and it's DH8's.
When your running an Airline of this size, It is 'Imperative' that you are 1 year in front of the 'game' and make sure that your Income is obviously Greater than your Outgoings.
I haven't worked for XL, And I can't understand what has actually gone wrong with the Biz?
If Phil Wyatt has been in this biz as long as I have then, He will or (would) have known the 'pitfalls' of the biz.
Maybe XL did everything correctly, But where let down by their Creditors/ Financiers at the 11th hour??
I'm afraid the only way to survive is to be a 'Hard' player as 'MOL' -Michael O'leary is and have a 'hands on' Control of the company you are running, I know he's not a 'complete' saint, But He knows the Industry better than anyone else, And He is excellent at Running an Airline.
And (B) the Finance has got to be there - in 'Concrete' it's no good having a company who chops/changes from one month to the next -'Whims & Fancies' don't run a biz.
Take TUI & Monarch - 50 + years of trading and never failed, And will not fail, As they are ran as a biz should be.
Phil Meeson Jet2, Done an Excellent job, He shouldn't fail he's worth 40m and on the 'rich list'
And I agree, Gordon Brown is so busy I don't think he knows what to do??
You would Think 'Branson' who is worth 'billions' would ease the pressure and 'Buy' these failing Airlines?
Watch that Money!!
All Best Wishes.
Mark.
make the workers pay for the crisis
why should the chief execs have to accept cuts in bonuses
why should the tax payer bail out failed companies in anyway
capitalism is darwinism
let the die
its just common sense
who ever will work for least should win
The Conservatives should state clearly that they will cut the pensions of Police, teachers, nurses and MP'swith immidiate effect after they win
Only market forces can win, lets end the public sector in public and private industry
Mark poses the question "how much do you Hedge?" The answer has to be "at a minimum, you hedge sufficiently to avoid your business going bust". The trouble is that it costs a small amount of money to have that insurance, and historically it has paid the cheapskates to not pay that insurance premium, but just to wing it until the company goes bust and then they start up another company. There's no disadvantage to skipping on that insurance until you do go bust, it's not like driving a car without insurance. And that kind of logic in an industry with the wafer thin margins of the airline industry means that the "bad" companies drive out the "good" companies, the ones that are conservative. Until you get a "black swan" event like the oilprice doubling in a year and the companies without "insurance" get caught out.
Like Mark, I'm not certain what happened to XL - I'm reliant on the national media, who are useless when it comes to technical stuff like this. But from the hints I've got, it seems that they're facing a similar problem to Alitalia - not enough working capital to pay for future fuel.
They were a bit unlucky that the price went up so much in early summer, the worst possible time for a holiday business - that, combined with falling load factors, must have just sucked up all their working capital. Holiday firms are more vulnerable than scheduled airlines to this kind of fluctuation, because they take bookings further in advance.
That's my guess, anyway.
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