But somehow Glenrothes seems to be the place where a last stand will happen. It is grimly appropriate, for this is a constituency next to Brown's own; and Labour's candidate, Lindsay Roy, is the rector (head teacher) of his old school, Kirkcaldy High. On paper, with a strong candidate, Labour should hold the seat, though after its Glasgow performance, the seat is within range of a surging SNP. And if Glenrothes becomes, by common consent, a make-or-break moment for the prime minister, then the excitement will only help the challenger.
Of course, ministers have briefed before that they were about to do this or that, only to find their courage or recklessness failed them when the time came. But I think the mood is different now. One put it to me like this. All MPs, he said, have a bellwether local constituency activist who can be trusted to tell them what is really happening. His one had just told him that he was so embarrassed by the party's Westminster performance that he could not defend them on the doorstep. So something has to change. Similar messages are coming in from every part of the country. The pressure is building almost daily.
I still wonder whether anyone will have the courage to do what they all know must be done. But I do agree with Jackie Ashley, that Glenrothes might be the tipping point.
33 comments:
I agree.
And it's little wonder that Gordon is too hesitant to give the wallflower constituency a date, it may well be the same date he puts on his CV as the end of his tenure as PM.
His one had just told him that he was so embarrassed by the party's Westminster performance that he could not defend them on the doorstep.
They almost have my sympathy. It’s an embarrassment that Conservative activists remember only too well.
His one had just told him that he was so embarrassed by the party's Westminster performance that he could not defend them on the doorstep.
He almost has my sympathy. It’s an embarrassment that I, a Conservative activist, remember only too well.
I seem to remember that the Glasgow East election was rushed through as Labour insisted it was vital for the constituents not to be without representation for months.
Brownstuff himself said "It is right that the constituents of this area of Glasgow have a new MP as soon as possible".
Funny they don't seem to have the same concerns for Glenrothes, eh?
This 'Is Gordon going to go' story is getting boring now.
Can't he just call a General Election and let us decide whether he should go or not?
But it isn't about political courage or caring about the country, it's about holding onto your job, your pension credit and your perks for as long as possible, as far as the Cabinet and most MPs are concerned.
Iain wrote:-"But Jackie Ashley, the Guardian columnist, has a bang on the money column today, "
One could read that various ways, as in JA had a 'bang' on the 'money column' today - lucky her; or "JA had a 'bang on' the money column" - as in banging on and on: or,.. well you get the point.
So only a by-election defeat will mean curtains for Brown will it? If there's a massive swing against Labour but they scrape home that'll be "success" enough to restore Brown's fortunes, will it? Mmm, I can see that that'll be reassuring to the scores of sitting socialist MPs with small and medium size majorities.
Why doesn't Brown prove that he has the electorate behind him by standing HIMSELF in Glenrothes?
This is BANG ON THE MONEY = If he survives for, say, a week [day?] after Glenrothes, then with the Christmas break around the corner, most will postpone [procrastinate?] on a decision until spring, and the 'moment may be gone'..
The cabinet don't appear to have any appetite for a revolution in the week of conference, and will probably want to wait until result of Glenrothes is in.
It could be the decider for whether the coin falls heads or tails...
jeff - does this mean that they have not even decided on the date for this yet ?! A contrast to the rush for the 'Dunwoody' By-Election !
If they have any sense, they will put it off until November - maybe even have it on 'Guy Fawkes' night so that they can blame a 'low turnout' and possibly crawl through until the next recess...
Dave must be willing him to just scrape the Glenrothes BE.
What is the point of getting rid of him? They are all doomed with or without him.
Brown will struggle on to 2010 and hopefully take Labour with him into retirement.
We then have to decide. Do we vote for Dave or will there be a better alternative available by then?
Glenrothes will not be the decider. As Alex said, the "Gordon is going to go" story is boring. It is not only boring, it is a limp prick teaser of a story; a "will he or won't he" that now has an obvious ending.
This man is like Hitler. Really, he is. He will not go until the tanks are at the gates of number ten. He is evil and blinded by his own ambition. He is mad in the regular sense of the word. The only way he will go now is in a strait jacket.
People have been talking about the so-called "tipping point" for months. There has been none. This man is a moral midget, surrounded by pusilanimous dwarves who only value their own skin. Nothing will happen after Glenrothes. Nothing.
So all of you, stop hoping, stop dreaming, and relax and watch the biggest political meltdown in history.
Jackie Ashley's columns are only worth reading for the comments which comprehensively trash her feeble and ludicrous outpourings.
They should have had a leadership election last year. Now is too late. The country needs a General Election. (Whether this is good or bad for Labour is irrelevant; the fact that they conflate their interests with that of the country shows how unfit to govern they are.)
Labour had 30th of October pencilled in as far back as a month ago.
There's every chance they'll push it back to as late as possible now that Gordon is getting even more of a pummelling.
Alternatively, they'll go for the canny trick of folding it into the US election news cycle of 6th of November.
The hypocrisy in waiting so late to call the election (compared to Glasgow East) may be enough in itself to guarantee they won't win.
" judith said... But it isn't about political courage or caring about the country, it's about holding onto your job, your pension credit and your perks for as long as possible, as far as the Cabinet and most MPs are concerned."
How true! When the game's up you might just as well screw it for all it's worth. That's exactly what they are all doing with the probable exception of Brown. He's just in total denial...
But why do you think the Glenrothes by-election will mean make or break for GB? It was said that the Crewe one would be; he lost; it wasn't; - then it was said that Glasgow East would be; he lost and it wasn't.
Can't see this is any different.
Surely when Labour "acclaimed" Brown leader last June they must have realised that it is just not in his pyschological make-up to resign or go gracefully. This is the man who had a sulk for over a decade because he felt that he had been robbed of his birthright by his junior - Blair.
Even if they manage to force him out he will be a brooding presence and an obstructive force within the Labour Party for the rest of his life. That being one of the reasons why Blair never sacked Brown although he had countless reasons not least his disloyalty to do so because he knew that whatever trouble Brown was in Cabinet would be magnified 100 times if he was outside it nursing yet another grievance.
And even when he loses the election - it will be others fault not his or "outside forces" or "international events" conspired to thwart him .
The Labour Party are stuck with the Curse of Brown whatever they do.
Personally, I think it's going to take dynamite to dislodge this awful stain on our country.
What a man of courage. What a man of decision. What a leader!
What a cabinet of yes men/women! What a cabinet of incompetents. What an absolute shower!
The worst government in our proud country's history, with the feebliest cabinet and the most cowardly of prime ministers.
Our Country has, surely, reached its lowest point.
No courage, no sense of loyalty to the country.
Brown, I for one, truly detest you!
Seriously, is it not time for HM the Q to get rid of this lot?
We currently have absolutely nothing like a functioning government, and the chimps currently going through the motions are transparently just hanging on for their own benefit.
"In the name of God, go!".
Even if they manage to force him out he will be a brooding presence and an obstructive force within the Labour Party for the rest of his life."
Not so Anon!
Bean will lose his seat at the Ge-simple as that!
Go back to bed Sir!
FM, Glenrothes. What a dire situation. Like being told you have a terminal illness, and will die in.... oh, I can't think of anywhere more appalling than Glenrothes. Sounds so lyrical, is so effing horrible.Even the mall smells of piss on carpets, with added fagash. Dreadful place to die. Or live,.
We all know the result of Glenrothes already - only those who hate Nu Lab would turn out in really bad weather with dark afternoons/evenings. We also know it'll make no change for GB. We hear an MP has requested nomination papers and you wait to find out who - Home Secretary, a well known minister? No, it's an envoy to forests!!?
Labour MPs know they'll be signing their UB40s in about twenty months, so why jeopardise extra expenses on their non-jobs by challenging a fellow political corpse. We're stuck with this lot till 2010, unless the British people force an early election.
p.s. comment seen in Times today: difference between Zanu-Lab and Zanu PF = the latter have a more charismatic leader. Cracking stuff.
What do you make of this report on Poliicalbetting http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/15/is-this-finally-the-beginning-of-the-end/.
"If they have any sense, they will put it off until November - maybe even have it on 'Guy Fawkes' night so that they can blame a 'low turnout' and possibly crawl through until the next recess...
September 15, 2008 2:41 PM"
They don't celebrate Guy Fawkes night in Scotland.Perhaps they ought to , it was the beinning of the 400 year Scotch tyranny over England !
No matter , Brown'll still be murdered. They're just waiting.
Iain, the tipping point in Brown's premiership has come and gone, sorry but how anyone can thing that the outcome of the Glenrothes by election will be the deciding factor either way is beyond me!
And as for the fact that no Cabinet Minister has stepped forward yet to challenge Brown, so what, the plot is managing just fine without one at the moment.
The biggest irony is that most of the political lobby continue to have a rather snobbish disregard for what is turning into quite a professional coup, and that reflects badly on them rather than the plotters who I suspect will have the last laugh this time.
What we need is someone to tiptoe into the Fuhrerbunker and leave a briefcase under the table.
They're frit! (Grantham dialect)
They're feart! (Glenrothes dialect)
I can feel the determination in the Labour camp to make a real fist of Glenrothes seeping away.
Truth be told Labour is probably weaker now in Scotland than it is in England as the Scots never really took to New Labour which most of them consider to be an imposter infesting the body of the Labour Party they supported for decades. They had to import English canvassers for Glasgow East and will have to do the same again here. The prevailing sentiment among informed Scottish Labour supporters is that Labour has betrayed them. Of course some of the red top support will stay but it is notoriously volatile and not very good at getting down to the polling station. On the other hand many voters see the SNP government trying to do the right thing in many areas despite its minority status so the honeymoon continues.
With no discernable political objective now obvious with New Labour, whose entire aim now seems to be retaining power, virtually all political activity is reduced to jostling for position.
I don't envy the lot of Labour's political activists in Glenrothes. The emasculated Scottish Labour sub division is reduced to attack on the SNP government in place of policy. Unless the drift is stopped Glenrothes could be a rout.
I wonder how mad Brown is?
He is an intelligent man and a hater. He knows the game is up. He knows that he may be sacked and humiliated by November. He has struggled for 10yrs in the background whilst that greaser Blair who stole the leadership from him, stole his limelight and glory. And now due to circumstances beyond his control, it has all turned to ashes. His ungrateful colleagues, whom he has helped into easy seats by his skilful management of the economy and for whom he has done so many favours on the way up, are turning on him like rats.
How much more unjustified abuse can a man take? I wouldn't have a leadership election, I'd have a general election.
Gotterdammerung.
Even if they manage to force him out he will be a brooding presence and an obstructive force within the Labour Party for the rest of his life."
Not so Anon!
Bean will lose his seat at the Ge-simple as that!
-- I have a different reason why not: Brown will outlive the Party.
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