Friday, May 22, 2009

Minor Parties Get 33% in Salford By Election: Blears is "Delighted"

Hazel Blears was chirruping with delight this morning at a Labour council seat win in her constituency last night. These were the results...

Irwell Riverside, Salford MBC ( Salford moving to Salford & Eccles) a Lab hold: Con vote was 12% -3, Lab 38% -7, LD 18% -22, BNP 17% from nowhere, Green 8% from nowhere, UKIP 8% from nowhere.

So 33% of the electorate moved away from the main parties to back fringe parties. Ms Blears said that the politics of the BNP had been "rejected". Not by 17% of the electorate though. Interestingly, the big losers were the LibDems. I wonder if that will be repeated on June 4th. They used to be seen as the recipients of so-called "dustbin votes" from people who wished a plague on the houses of the two main parties. Now people have several other alternatives.


rob's uncle said...

It may be [this is only a guess] that the Lib Dem was only a paper candidate, even though they were the main challenger.

Educated reader said...

"Other alternatives" is a horrible pleonasm! A bit like the LibDems.

Anonymous said...

Off topic;

Please tell your friend Nadine Dorries to shut up.

She's unhinged and every word she utters is a gift to Labour.

What's more she's undermining all the good work Cameron has done and made it harder for further progress.

Alex said...

Not quite "from nowhere|". I presume there were no Green/UKIP/BNP candidates last time. It would have been more impressive if they had stood last time and polled 0. In all likelihood there always some support, but it hadn't been voiced.

Anonymous said...

You gave percentages, not actual votes cast.

no longer anonymous said...

I second anonymous@11:48.

You appear to be on good terms with Nadine, please have a quiet word with her.

Tory Politico said...

Iain you may want to add the fact that these results were on a pitiful 17.5 per cent turnout. while local elections nearly always have low turnouts, it would be good to have some historical perspective on this. Also as you point out, this does not bode well for June 4.

Anonymous said...

It will be bizarre if the effect of the Barclay Brothers 'going large' on Telegraph expenses coverage will be a boost to the anti-eurosceptic Liberal Democrats...

Rod Jones said...

You need to get the results right to read in the significance! The 2008 result (a bad one for Labour) was:

Labour 888 50.9%
Lib Dem 337 19.3%
Cons 286 16.4%
BNP 233 13.4%

So the actual % changes are:

Labour -13.6%
Lib Dem -1.1%
BNP +3.7%
Cons -4.7%
Green +7.8%
UKIP +7.6%

I suggest you rethink your comment. Despite Squirrel Nutkin's apparent delight, this sort of result speels the end of her parliamentary career.

Fausty said...

The LibDems don't seem to understand that people can't forgive them over the Lisbon Treaty. If they had voted against, the Treaty wouldn't've been ratified by Brown and the LDs would be reaping the votes now.

Anon - I'm inclined to agree. She started losing the plot when she attempted to rebutt the DT on her blog. It struck me as hysterical, incoherent ranting. She needs to calm down and still her tongue for a while.

Silent Hunter said...

Is Nadine Dorries the "Derek Draper" of the Tory Party?

Lola said...

Or, to look at it another way, 62% don't want Labour.

Paul Halsall said...

I would suggest Blears is a whole lot better placed to win her seat in the nect election than Hoon or Purnell.

Liz said...

Anon - I'm with you. Please ask Nadine in a friendly fashion to consider how her blog posts will be received, Iain - that sort of hyperbole's always going to be attractive to the media, and all she's managing to do is to make the Conservative party look a bit...unbalanced. Campaigning is hard enough at the moment without having to deal with this sort of thing.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Iain but the BNP/Green/UKIP vote wasn't from nowhere. The Greens and UKIP did not stand last year when this seat was last up for election (2008 results below). However disappointing to see the BNP push the Tories into 4th place. The LibDem vote was only down 1%-2%, not 22% as you suggest.

Irwell Riverside Ward

Candidate Party Votes cast
* COEN Stephen Labour 888
HEALEY Anthony British National 233
LEWIS David Barry Conservative 286
McKELVEY Kenneth William Liberal Democrat 337
Electorate 8548 Majority 551
Void votes 13 Turnout 20.6%

JuliaM said...

"Off topic;

Please tell your friend Nadine Dorries to shut up."

Seconded! Every word out of her mouth is another vote lost...

Anonymous said...

Nazi BNP humilated here in a seat they hoped to win

David Boothroyd said...

I think you've got the Lib Dem change wrong - it's actually -0.9%, and the BNP did stand before. Their share was up 3.7% on May 2008. The Green and UKIP votes were new, having not stood before.

So in fact the switch to minor parties was 19.1%. The fact that Green and UKIP had not previously stood makes that not particularly exceptional.

Vienna Woods said...

This sort of result was to be expected and I'm surprised it wasn't even worse. I just don't believe that the expenses row is 100% of the reason. Ordinary people are frustrated by unemployment which has hit the indigenous population, but not the immigrants (illegal or otherwise). It's not just happening in the UK either. Across former western Europe the very same experiences are being felt, which is giving rise to the extreme right who are promising to curb immigration, which in itself is not such a bad idea, but behind the scenes are aiming to do much more, the results of which I don't want to think about.

Yesterday I was shopping for a few things in our local Lidl. It was busy with many head scarves about. Not a word of German spoken and each woman had at least three kids under school age in tow. At the cash till, social security vouchers are proffered and no cash changes hands. It crossed my mind that the average Austrian family has two kids and are currently struggling with the recession. Why oh why is it possible for these people to come here to drain the social services budget and screw my state pension. It angers me that successive socialist governments have blindly allowed this to happen and are now too timid to act. The EU Parliament's decision to allow an open-door policy was lunacy of the highest order.

I just hope that Cameron wakes up in time to do something positive, without the racialist tone of the BNP. Sadly I believe it is almost too late and Europe is gazing into the abyss.

kenny murphy said...

I've always liked Hazel. However, i honestly think that she's finished. Not only is Brown going to dump her she'll struggle to get re-elected in her own constituency.

I think there is a real growing appetite to see all existing MP's voted out in order to get new stock in for new times.

Mark Senior said...

I don;t know where you get your vote share changes from , Iain , but they are gibberish and of course the true figures make your comment on the LibDems gibberish also .
The result last year was in fact
Lab 888 51%
LDem 337 19%
Con 286 17%
BNP 233 13%

The BNP did not come from nowhere as they fought the seat last year .
The correct vote share changes are :-
Lab - 13%
LDem - 1%
Con - 4%
BNP + 4%
Gre/UKIP + 7% each .

strapworld said...

Vienna Woods does highlight a problem which the Major Parties cannot ignore any longer.

It hit me, this week, when I saw the photographs in the sports section of the Telegraph. They showed the launch of the FA's World Cup Bid. It was a large photograph of school children. White children were a minority. In fact I think there were only four white faces.

Sadly, it does not bode well for public tranquility, and I wish that the major parties would decide that they must do something to prevent a solvable problem developing into a major problem.

Manfarang said...

Vote share changes from canvass returns?

wv brytord

Manfarang said...

Strapworld-World Cup
South African school children?

Rich Johnston said...

I'm a natural Labour voter, who will vote Lib Dem depending in the demographic of the area I live in at the time. Probably allergic to voting Conservative I'm afraid.

This election, I'll be voting Green for the first time, despite vehemently disagreeing with their policies on nuclear power.

Cinna said...

So we can't agree on the vote share changes? Remind me; how does it go, "lies, damned lies and statistics."

Anonymous said...

Slightly OT; I think Blears is deluding hereself if she is taking comfort from the fact that Brown thinks she is doing a "good job". Brown thinks he's doing an excellent job and we know what that is like.

Even further OT; Do get ND to pipe down and allow the Tory PR machine to do its job.

Paul Halsall said...

"Vienna Woods does highlight a problem which the Major Parties cannot ignore any longer"

And that is that Austrians since at least the time of Karl Luger have looked to blame outsider groups.

Now they have got rid of most of the Jews, they seem to turn on other outsiders.

Mark Senior said...

No Cinna , the vote share changes are straight forward , go to council website and get result from last time fought ( in this case 2008 ) and compare with result this time . If too lazy to do it yourself , go to the Vote-2007 website and find this week's by-election thread and it is all done for you .
When you have the correct results and vote share changes comment and/or spin as you see fit .

Wrinkled Weasel said...

The BNP has gained year on year on the whole, in seats where it has fielded a candidate. At present, more people vote BNP than Green. Accordingly, one would expect it to have a higher profile than the alfalfa-munching windbags.

I noticed on Question Time, that everytime the BNP was mentioned, it was in the context of the fart particles from Satan's Bottom. Let us not forget that the BNP is the only party that recognises what a disaster immigration policy has been and is prepared to do something about it. That, in itself, is no bad thing, in fact it is good. So why aren't the main parties touching it?

Anyway, this is how the BNP are doing. Better get used to it and better tackle the issues the main parties are avoiding.

BNP fielded 119 candidates and lost 85 deposits.
Greens fielded 203 candidates and lost 179 deposits.
Percentage of votes in seats contested, Green 3.29, BNP 4.19

The Greens increased their percentage of the National Vote by 0.4%
The BNP increased their percentage of the National Vote by 0.5%

The Greens are either stagnating or going backwards and the BNP are gaining by the year. They have done this with less than half the expenditure and less than half number of candidates.

All of this has taken place during a Labour Administration. Make of it what you will, but the trend is obvious. The link below lists the relevant data and the sources.

Anonymous said...

I am afraid I am getting terribly fed up (putting it mildly) with the chipmunks rictus grin.

Anonymous said...

I would fully agree with Lola's comment above. This was not a good result for Blears her saying "delighted" is one thing being delighted is another.

Anonymous said...

Any postal votes, Iain?

Vienna Woods said...

Ignore it at your peril Mr Halsall (and incidentally it was Karl Lueger, not Luger). For your information, or is it that you read history only up until the 2nd World War. Austria has taken pro-rata more refugees during the last 40 years than any other west European country. The problem now is that they cannot take any more (just the same as the UK). A third of Vienna's population are recent immigrants and a huge proportion illegal. Again, much the same as the UK crime is rocketing - burglaries up 26% since January this year. More than 90% of those caught are former East Europeans and violent crime is almost exclusively their province. If of course you would like to suggest some magical formula to remedy the problem - I'm all ears! If on the other hand, you'd like to entertain everyone with another gem from your historical recollections, feel free. Incidentally, I'm very English - no Germanic blood whatsoever!r

Anonymous said...

Anon - 11.48 AM


Why doesn't Cameron simply muzzle any Tory MP that has the slightest whiff of trouble from talking to the national press.

Wiggins, Dorries, Steen. Just shut up and take your medicine.

Mirtha Tidville said...

Come on peeps, this is a poxy council ward by election in Salford, where a donkey with a red rosette would still have won (probably did)..the facts quoted, in isolation, are meaningless and I dont think it would be wise to read anything into them at this time.

Speaking of isolation,I`m afraid thats what Nadine needs most at the moment. Shes turning into the Tories Mad Hattie. She either needs to wise up and stop feeling sorry for herself. Dave has shown he has only so much patience.....

Paul Halsall said...

Crime is not sky-rocketing in the UK. It's been declining steadily for over a decade.

And Mr Vienna Woods, you seem to be one of the immigrants!

strapworld said...

Manfarang. Please give me some credit. It was,as I said, OUR World Cup BID!

wake up.

Will S said...

The Lib Dems are really the main losers here. They billed themselves as the main challengers here and put a lot of effort in. The Tory campaign was very low-profile in which is one of our most difficult wards in Salford.

A quick note Iain. The BNP vote did not come from nowhere, they stood in 2008 and got 13% of the vote.

Anonymous said...

I was struck by Blears' other comment on the Salford result, according to the BBC News website:
"The result shows the values of Salford people are the values of the Labour Party."

It should be the other way round, surely? Or is this the Stalinist face of New Labour?

Chris Paul said...

The BNP stood last time Iain, Alex. They didn't get anywhere from nowhere. They creepy crawled their way up a bit from an established block.

There's a more accurate report at my blog HERE. Including an informative exchange with Cllr Iain Lindley PPC (Worsley) in comments. He may be wishing he'd gone for the other seat ...

The Lib Dems were NOT a paper candidate by any means Rob's uncle. The Tories didn't stick out much paper but they too were reasonably serious and have lost even more to the minor parties than Labour, even accounting for the reduced turnout. The BNP overtook them.

Good to see UKIP and Greens taking part. This helped keep the BNP down. I've little doubt that the Greens and/or Lib Dems standing in Sevenoaks could have stopped the BNP there.

There is also a picture at my blog which you might like Iain. Have yet to identify the little bonehead man thrusting the chipmunk a KitKat - message "Have a Break"

Rod Jones - your % change stats are very misleading. Is that deliberate!!?? The Tories lost a greater proportion of their previous vote than Labour.

The turnout is particularly low in this seat because there are 2000 students in halls and others infiltrating the rest of the ward. A quarter of the electorate highly unlikely to vote. 1% would be a good turn out from students in this kind of context. Iain Lindley has confirmed from ballot box watching that they didn't bother.

Chris Paul said...

PS Nadine has been an accident waiting to happen since 2001 in Hazel Grove. Now she's happened. She should go. But please persuade her to stay Iain!

Julian Ware-Lane said...

I am no fan of Nadine Dorries, but she does make some valid points. By all means punish the cheats, but what appears to happening at the moment is a witch-hunt designed to keep this as news (and the Telegraph in stories) for many more days to come. I value our democracy, and it is being undermined. All I want is some balance in the argument, not mob rule and lynch-mobs. I repeat, punish the cheats, but please remember that most MPs are in it for genuine reasons.

Vienna Woods said...

Dear Mr Halsall, as the last decade's crime figures have been in the hands of New Labour and their, how can I put it - perhaps "Opportunist" accounting would be most accurate. My son and nephew are senior police officers in the UK and they have been complaining for several years now about being "directed" to reduce figures for reported crime by the politically adept Bramshill mob anxious to secure a starry future with their Labour masters. As it's all coming to an end now, I daresay the real figures will be eventually released and some civil servant blamed.

Yes, I suppose I am an immigrant - never intended to stay...! However, I integrated myself into the culture and although somewhat alien at first, came to enjoy it. The trouble with most immigrants both here and in other countries as that they make no effort to conform, but seek to live as in their own lands, which from my experience damages local language and culture.

Steven Webster said...

The BNP were aiming for a 12% vote share in this seat so they're happy with the result.

Anonymous said...

Salford is a weird one - I suspect many would vote Labour even if it turned out Hazel Blears was a badger baiter.

Rod Jones brings up the delta with 2008 which is more telling. Looks like UKIP, Greens and fascists picked up votes.

If that is repeated in less mentally Labour wards, that doesn't bode well for any of the main parties.

Nor well for having BNP councillors with New Labour's local council snooping powers (under RIPA). I wonder if black people, homosexuals, and other minorities will have their bins put under surveillance disproportionately in wards with fascist councillors?

Maybe they'll access their bank, and internet/phone records too.

Alix said...

Jeez,where did you get that para, Iain?!

Copied and pasted from Salford's website:

2008 results
* COEN Stephen Labour 888
HEALEY Anthony BNP 233
LEWIS David Barry Conservative 286
McKELVEY Kenneth William Liberal Democrat 337
Electorate 8548 Majority 551
Void votes 13 Turnout 20.6%

Results this time (from Steve Cooke's LD councillor blog):

* Lib Dem: 293
* Labour: 606
* Conservative: 189
* BNP: 276
* Green: 125
* UKIP: 123

Mark Senior and Rod are correct. This isn't rocket science, people. Please speak from the actual results.

Manfarang said...

To win it,we have to get the votes from Africa.

Vienna Wood
Lots of True Blues overseas who make no effort whatsoever to fit in with the local culture.How many English people living in Spain bother to learn Spanish?A significant minority.

The local by-election results this week show no sign of any great shift in voting behaviour.

Dr Evil said...

So we know 38% of the local electorate are morons. Nothing changes except 7% have woken up!

Anonymous said...

This ex-Salfordian sees the BNP as the same swines who brought Hitler to power in the 1930s - despite current problems he is pleased to see that the Labour candidate won the by-election - keep the faith - keep Left !

John Cowin - one time resident

of Lancaster Road.

May 29th/2009