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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Vote Green Get a LibDem! Or Not
I think Norfolk Blogger has been spending too much time in the Norfolk sun. THIS post smacks of protesting just that little bit too much. He believes that Peter Tatchell's announcement that he is standing for the Green Party in Oxford East guarantees that the seat will
remain go LibDem. Well, just hold on a cotton pickin' minute. I'd have thought that the Greens would attract more votes from the LibDems than Labour, meaning that Labour might do proportionately better. The case is at least arguable. Read what he has to say and judge for yourself.
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But I don't care what Norfolk Blogger has to say...
Are the Lib Dems there like the ones in Wales? Our lot spend so much time telling people that they are in fact the Green Party that something Wodehousian is bound to happen
Lib Dems are jokers - they can be whatever they want !
Tatchell will make no impact either way.
The battle between Labour and Lib Dem will be down to the candidates and their troops - and the Oxford Tory vote (like its Cambridge counterpart) will continue to disappear off the map.
Im so sorry, its all my fault. I started a trend of pretending to be green, now all parties are doing it. Its time for me to retire to that lovely new house you mentioned before, with lots of solar panels on the roof.
Am I missing something here? Oxford East is a Labour marginal. Oxford West is Lib Dem.
Well said David Anthony...
"Norfolk Blogger" is an utter lightweight and of little or no political consequence.
I can't think of anything he has ever contributed to other blogs that are worth remembering.
He gets - whatever little credibility he has - from references from other blogs like your's, Iain.
He should concentrate his efforts on marking homework in the evening. It's what taxpayers pay him to do.
Remain Lib Dem? Are you trying to set new standards for carelessness Iain? Beating Guido at his own game?
Andrew Smith Labour 15,405 36.9 -12.5
Steve Goddard Liberal Democrat 14,442 34.6 +11.2
Virginia Morris Conservative 6,992 16.7 -2.0
Jacob Sanders Green 1,813 4.3 +0.5
Honest Blair Independent 1,485 3.6 +3.6
Maurice Leen Independent Working Class Association 892 2.1 +2.1
Peter Gardner UK Independence Party 715 1.7 +0.3
Pat Mylvaganam Independent 46 0.1 +0.1
Majority 963 2.3
Turnout 41,790 57.9 +2.1
Or vote Lib Dem and get a Green - so they say
Check out the "Lib Dems Economical" story
I had to disagree with NB on this one. The "Cameron effect" (if there is one) should be enough to stop the Conservative vote from haemorrhaging further (it may possibly increase it) in seats like Oxford E & W and Cambridge. Tachell can expect to save his desposit and will gain Lib Dems voters. .
Now, tell me, what this obsession you have with NB, Iain? Do you have a crush on him? You never comment on my posts - either they are too boring or I need to spend more time down at the gym! :-)
A small point -- Oxford East is a Labour seat -- Dr Andrew Harris, the Lib Dem, sits for Oxford West. Tatchell may help unseat formwer work and pensions secretary Andrew Smith
Justin, well you've provoked me into commenting! Not sure this counts as an obsession - two posts in a week. And - whisper it - not my type.
where both LibDems and Greens stand and actively campaign it is good for Labour, no matter who holds the seat. Oxford East is a Labour marginal.
A quick point about Oxford East, to everyone who's saying it's Labour - that's true, but I think it might actually be notionally Lib Dem, after boundatry changes. Large chunks of the city centre (including most of the Colleges, and lots of student flats) have been transferred from OxWAb into Oxford East.
I'm sure somebody somewhere has done the research, and worked out what it would be like under the new boundaries - maybe someone can find a link?
Depending on exactly what was done in the current boundary change and the 1997 ones, don't forget that the Tories won this seat in 1983 (Steve Norris). Whilst it may not be a fair comparison for the above reasons, it is interesting to note how far the Tories vote has fallen in seats like Oxford E. Similarly, I think Cambridge was a 1992 gain for Labour.
Probably also worth noting that this isn't just a trend in University seats. It would be interesting to see a list of how many seats the Tories lost in 1992/97 for which they are now in third place? Hornsey and Streatham are both examples. That is probably where the real challenge is for Cameron. Analogy is how LAbour recaptured its vote under Kinnock in 92
According to these figures, Oxford East is notionally Lib Dem under the revised boundaries.
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