Saturday, November 08, 2008
Reality Check for Labour Triumphalists
An ICM Poll for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph puts the Tories 13 points in the lead (43-30-18). So much for the Brown Bounce. The poll also shows that people think that David Cameron is more likely to build a good relationship with Barack Obama than Gordon Brown.
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With a true national debt of approx 158% of GDP, a situation created by Gordon Brown, it's little wonder.
I wonder if the lab supporters in scotland were aware of the real debt, as opposed to the 37% which Brown is trumpeting, they would have voted as they did?
The Glenrothes result is neither here nor there other than the fact that Labour held off the SNP to retain one of their safest Scottish seats and there were factors peculiar to Scotland which won't be in play in a General Election.
The UK economy is the worst placed in Europe to ride out the recession and the main culprit for that is one Gordon Brown and ultimately there isn't a "Brown Bounce" big enough to get him over of that fact.
I notice from the poll that (rightly or wrongly) Brown and Darling are the most trusted to lead Britian through diffiult economic times.
I know this will probably change when the recession hits, but what this does prove at the moment is that can't be just the economy which is the reason for Labour's unpopularity, a fact that many Labour MP's seem to fail to understand.
What can you say about a Conservative Party that is only 13 points ahead after what we have been through and what we expect to have to go through?
The failure to nail Labour on its economic performance is nothing short of criminal. Osbourne should be fired and Cameron should take a long hard look in the mirror. Is he up to the job? I have never thought so. On this performance he will not be getting my vote when Gordo calls the December election!
Yes i think Broon and McLabour have actually forgotten that they will be voted out by landslide by the people of England at the next General Election, regardless of what voters do in their Scotch EU Region homeland and power base.
Labour are really scared of Osborne aren't they ?
The choice at the next general election will be simple:
a) Have the Conservative economic policy from a Conservative government.
b) Have the IMF economic policy from a Brown government humiliating dictated to a bankrupt country.
Lets hope a) wins.
What matters are real polls. As much as I'm gutted by the Glenrothes result, nobody can deny that it was an astonishing result for the regime. Just look at the detail of the numbers. If you're Archie Haddock, waking up on friday morning must have been soul destroying. The best chance the SNP will ever get in my lifetime is slipping away. If you're Dave, you've just seen your unspoken strategy pact with the SNP to divide and conquer the UK, blown to pieces.
Jackass brown will only get stronger now. May 2009 will be the timing for the general election and he may well win it. A willing & witless coalition of the Thick, the Naive and the Evil will see to that.
Oh, and don't forget mandelson, campbell et al; they continue to work in the background to make the Tories look weak and irrelevant.
There is a rule in life that says that whenever someone treats you rotten, don't waste your time trying to get even. Just sit back and wait. Sooner or later accross your desk comes the bit of paper that makes you go 'Ah Ha!' 'Got you'. They'll have been scuppered in some way. Of course you have to play your part by continuing to do the Right Thing and stick by your principles. But it always works. The SH1 tees always get found out in the end.
Such is Brown's fate. He ruled by deceit. He is deluded by how own propaganda. It will end in tears for him. But..
Dave / George have to do their bit and stop fannying about with a load of platiduninous old cobblers exemplified by such specious sound bites as 'sharing the proceeds of growth' when everyone knows there is not going to be any growth to share. They must go with their instincts and tell it like it is. Be seen to be men of principle and the success will come to them.
Brown though, is toast. His reputation will be that of a deceitful and deluded man who ruined his country's financial system and international credibility.
When was the polling done?
I see that on a certain other site, the invariably estimable "Woman on a Raft" has made the point that...
"If the Yanks can have a black President, we can have a bald Chancellor".
This would strike me as a vastly superior line-up for the Conservatives than the present one, particularly for such troubled times. The punters took against Hague for his combination of precicuousness and shininess at a time when those were his most visible characteristics. Over the last decade however he has acquired the gravitas which goes with his undoubted ability.
Before you get too carried away with the latest opinion poll, Iain, you might want to acknowledge that Labour seem to have developed a strategy of sorts aimed at better positioning themselves for an early election – perhaps in May 09, perhaps sooner. Some elements of this strategy are already apparent, for example:
• A major media spin campaign hyping Brown as the great saviour of the financial system, using the BBC as an integral part of their party propaganda machine.
• Discrediting individual members of the opposition, starting with Osborne.
• A huge cut in interest rates (so much for the independence of the BoE) to bribe a large slice of the indebted electorate, paid for by trashing savers’ incomes and a collapsing pound.
• Tough talk on immigration, to reverse working class votes defecting to the BNP
No doubt other elements of their strategy will emerge in the coming weeks, such as tax cuts targeted on swing voters, more tough rhetoric on crime, further puff pieces in the media and new attacks / smears on the Tory party and individuals.
This has all the hallmarks of the Prince of Darkness, since Brown and has cohorts (Balls, Alexander etc) are no strategists and lack his killer Machiavellian prowess. The tide began to turn in Labour’s favour when he came back into government, so a key priority for the Tory party should be to find the ammunition to destroy this man’s political career once and for all.
In parallel with this, the Tories need to drastically up their game by:
• Replacing the lightweight & lazy members of the shadow cabinet with some real heavy hitters.
• Producing some radical policies that genuinely resonate with the wider public, not the metropolitan elite or selected business circles.
• A vigorous and sustained onslaught on Brown, clearly exposing him not as the saviour of the economy, but as the key perpetrator of its collapse.
• A major attack on the blatant bias of the BBC – they are so obviously in Labour’s pocket that there is nothing to lose now by tackling this issue head on.
I really cannot understand why Cameron and the Tory front bench are pussy footing around. Do they actually prefer to be in opposition, rather than take on the challenge and responsibility of government, or do sinister forces behind the scenes have some dirt on these guys?
The Tories can’t rely on Labour losing the next election. It’s up to Cameron and co to actively win it.
wait a minute. It all depends on when the field work was done. If it was before Glenrothes (most likely) then it may be old news precisely because of the bragging rights that Labour will have which may move the polls. If it comes after Glenrothes then it is good news for the Tories.
England is still regionalised with regional assemblies the imposition of unitary authorities that all polls showed that people in England did not want.
where were the tories to stop it?
They have been hopeless in opposition. I can not see how they would be of any use in government.
The poll was carried out "between 5th and 6th November 2008"
So in tandem with the by-election.
Cannot see what difference that makes. Are people saying that respondents are influenced by other poll results and are incapable of thinking for themselves??
Someone mentions the debt level. I am becoming increasingly convinced (admittedly only in my own little mind) that Browns quoting of debt as a %age of GDP is a scam that needs exposing.
GDP has gone up but to just what effect? A lot is simply due to immigration and the GDP per head (as exposed by Migrationwatch) has hardly moved.
We have also seen that GDP ha gone up as a result oof unsustainable borrowing.
This must surely place debt assessment levels in a different light.
Our debt level s terrible and the current account deficit is proportionately as high now going into the recession as it was last time coming out of one.
Brown is planning to borrow us in to oblivion to save his political skin - his scam needs exposing.
Glenrothes results was down to one thing and it wasn't the brown bounce. It was jobs at the sub ship yard - a topic the SNP couldn't mention because it is supping with the devil. If they did go independent, those jobs would go as that is all paid for by english taxpayers so gordon didn't work any miracles, it was all bought and sold with the unions.
Quelle surprise. Have another haggis Alex. So this wasn't ever about poll ratings so the 13% stands and the dollies will just have to swallow it.
No one is being a triumphalist over here Iain. But it is nice to see Cameron NOT being able to be one over there. Glenrothes was and is a brilliant result for Scottish Labour and terrible but terrible for SNP, Tory and Lib Dem.
In the morning I may have a look at the small print (and indeed the big print) of this poll and comment further. The Barry O'Bama communing with Davey Cambama point baffles me and it probably will not come up.
There is a long way to go. Glenrothes is not conclusive of anything. Except to a point in the negative. Salmond was touting a 5,000 majority for the SNP and had that happened the week would have been rather spoilt for the progressives. But it didn't. Which is at least a pointer to the direction of travel here.
This was the best by-election result in terms of absolute votes for 26 years. Since Beaconsfield. Was that the one Blair trailed in in? Should we be looking at the Tory and Lib Dem candidates in Glenrothes and sticking a few quid on them being Leader/PM of their parties in about ten years time??
Probably not.
PS That 158% figure is utter bilge.
Doing the sums in the same way as other nations seems to be the most important thing. Inventing some other terrible way to do it seems like treason.
And the people touting the bilge figure on the basis of clots like Guido (and Benadict Brogan from whom Fawkes plagiarised) have yet to explain how and why this unreal figure or indeed a real internationally comparable one is a problem and to whom.
The only 'Brown bounce' I want to see is him bouncing on his arse out of Downing Street.
Cameron has to work with the material he is given, so:
please note that neither Hague nor Redwood WANT the Shadow Chancellorship
Cameron is not responsible for the delay in judgement on Caroline Spelman
there are some bed-blockers and idle gits on the Opposition benches, and it is hoped that Cameron will appoint a few real attack dogs to the Whips Office to deal with them - Chris Grayling and Lee Scott come to mind.
Is 13 percent sufficient to give Cameron a working majority?
“So much for the Brown bounce”.
Too right!
Britain is not best placed for anything & maybe the public sense it as well as beginning to see it! Were in serious Trrrrrrouble & Brown MUST be to blame for the mess were in?
I know the world’s financial markets are calling Britain “the sick man of Europe” because of the amount of debt we have.
But what does unelected Brown think best for Britain?
He wants us as a nation to borrow more, as a company to borrow more & as an individual borrow more, WHAT!
Well! What can you say?
Brown has made the country SICK, EVERYONE can see it except Labours man in denial, the unelected, unwanted clumsy fist.
Browns Labour!
Hurts doesn’t it?
ChrisPaul must have had an attack of the vapours - have you ever read such drivel?
The Glenrothes result means absolutely nothing at all. Just look at the demographics, look at the statistics. Look at the number of ople employed by the state, the number on benefits and pensions, the number in council housing- look at what the Labour Government have poured into that place!
Then consider that when the Scots realise that the Trump golf resort proves to be of great benefit in both jobs and wealth for Scotland- the lies told by labour, on this issue on the doorstep, will rebound.
This was a 'scare-em' by election and the Labour Government scared them!
The latest Poll shows the true nature of public opinion. Brown is a 'dead man walking' and his time for the guillotine is fast coming.
Sadly, this poll also tells me that Cameron will just carry on regardless and boy george and spelman will be allowed to continue.
I am afraid that, come the general election,we will swop on poor leader for another!
OK Chris Paul if the 158% figure is not correct then tell us what the true GDP figure is because the rest of the world do not think that Browns 37% figure is correct!
We're waiting!
I don't think the Glenrothes by-election result was 'terrible terrible'. It obviously wasn't as good as the SNP expected and the SNP should have nailed the labour lies about community charges. That was a bad error.
I'm basically a tory but I believe in independence so I vote SNP. In the past few months I have been so very disappointed in the performance of the tories who have every available media channel at their disposal. David Cameron and George Osbourne aren't cutting the mustard at present and are allowing many issues, such as Brown's destruction of UK finances, to go undebated.
The SNP don't have the pleasure of even a partial unbiased press in Scotland. They have to work hard against the tide of unionism and do it well.
Chris Paul won't defend his lies about 158% because he is a proponent of the 'Big Lie'..the more you keep saying it, the more people will believe you.
Chris , what is utter bilge , as even you must admit, is the line being peddled by Brown that debt has been reduced .
Debt was high at the end of the Major period as we came out of recession over a period spanning both the end of Major and the beginning of New Labour there were huge reductions as you would expect especially with Labour being committed to Tory Spending limits . So Labour came in on the very high point to which we are now headed and which will provide a comparison over a cycle ( you recall that adding up at all points of cycle was the point of the now dead golden rule..ha bitter ha … ). It is amazing that since then ,year after year debt as a proportion of GDP has increased in a boom and real debt including PFI initiatives and Cross rail is at a historic high. The claim then to have reduced debt is an outright lie and shows an astonishing contempt for the intelligence of the electorate
The business of international comparisons is entirely artificial and only used to mislead . Different countries are very differently placed to withstand debt ( The same point is very much true about Brown`s great fraud of removing housing from inflation , this has hopelessly warped inflation measures in a way it did not in the EU..but I digress)
. I agree that the figure 150 plus % is overly dramatic it is nonetheless true that the ballooning liability to the public purse of final salary pensions allotted only to Labour`s friends in the Public sector . You would agree no doubt that ignoring this debt altogether is also foolish
I think most reasonable people would agree that by removing money from the productive side of the economy and funnelling it into the Public sector you inevitable harm growth and we have . You also harm the ability to grow in the future as many many companies are not set up and existing ones are emerged in the toxic tangle of regulation New Labour have lumbered us with. This is why reductions in interest rates will only have a marginal effect . What we need a long term tax cuts and a bonfire opf costs placed on SME`s ( which Labour have crucified ). That both of these steps are so very hard to take is the fault of New Labour and as hardship becomes real people will see this mark my words.
Labour’s real defence lies in the performance of the fabulously well funded Public Sector . Have we got value for money on schools hospitals m welfare and so on. Its an argument that makes sense if not to me , but the claim to have managed to economy well is childish and tiresome .
PS-That Scotland is suddenly terrified of being on its own is hardly surprising and far too much has been made of
Hey, Newmania - great to see you back!
The Tories never lost their lead, it's just the BBC living in fantasy land.
However, Cameron needs to stop backing Labour up. Cameron should have opposed the bank bailout (as should have McCain in the USA)
The Brown plan has totally failed. The banks are not doing what they should be doing, the stock market and the pound have tanked.
Brown is finished and so will the BBC when the Tories get elected.
Oh and I bet the BBC stops talking about the polls now that Brown is failing again. For the last few weeks all the BBC has talked about are the polls and how well Brown was doing.
Any impression we may have previously given that the Glenrothes by-election would be an important political event of earhquake dimensions leading to the fall of the Brown government and end of the Labour Party was due to a typing error. We apologise for any confusion that may have been caused.
On the other hand, talking about Labour lies,
read this about Mandy..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5114798.ece
Good grief Mandy told a lie.... that's unbelievable for such a trusted honourable Lord!
No comment from Chris Paul then!
Cameron must get rid of Osborne as he is now a complete liabilty.
Lets see Cameron show his teeth and show the Public just what a disaster Labour has been (And still is).
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