This ConservativeHome graphic neatly encapsulates the new battleground of British politics. They describe it as "game on". With a MORI poll showing the Tory lead down to 3 per cent, I wonder whether they might be more prophetic than they realise. Surely Brown couldn't be tempted into a January or February election. Could he?
Machiavelli has created a neat poster graphic. Remind you of 1992?
43 comments:
I just do not think that Dave Cameron put the first point strongly enough this morning.
Cutting waste to allow tax cuts is a very compelling arguement and a simple one to make.
This needs to be shouted from the roof tops.
I also think the population, rightly or wrongly believes people on benefit have to do more to 'earn' a living not just live on the state.
I do think that in my conversations with various people in Labour as well as Tory areas recently that people are ready to hear tough talking and willing to bear some pain if it is honestly put to them about the real state of the economy and there is a real propsect of an improvement if the right measures are taken.
Iain, when you raised the possibility the other day of Brown going very early for a General Election I was one of the very few commenters who reckoned he wouldn't. Consider - he's got a good working majority and can stay put for about 18 months if he wishes and is now pretty secure as PM. Why put that at risk. Could he really convince the electorate that he should take three weeks out electioneering when he's always saying he's "getting on with the job". The other point I would mention is that he knows he's getting away with everything via the simple expedient of not answering questions in the House. I'm not so sure that he will be able to do this under the spotlight of an election campaign. And I'm not sure that he will get away with only being interviewed by Andy Marr!
Yes I guess this is no time for dissent or independence of mind Mr Dale, not when the polls are showing another five years of opposition for the Tories. It´s all hands on deck now guys - so prepare yourselves!
"a social reform agenda that will reduce the costs of family breakdown, drug addiction etc..." By providing less support for those in need no doubt. I simply don't believe that any sensible person would believe that Cameron and Osborne care one jot about any other human beings but their own families. They have spent their lives doing nothing but feathering their own nests - if they 'care', why did they not use their education to do something about these problems? Instead, they thought they'd just get rich and get power, by whatever means. Fortunately, they are both such repugnant human beings that I don't think anyone will have the stomach to vote for them come polling day - I certainly am physically compelled to turn off the telly the moment Osborne comes on screen. A less compassionate, caring and decent person I have yet to see.
Have a listen to Derek Scott former economics adviser to Tony Blair telling it like it is on 5Live breakfast this morning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00ffjvc 2:09.25 in
a January or February election. Could he?
well, they are definitely clearing the decks. All options open.
I think David Cameron's message is not resonating with the public for many reasons...
The Tories need to convince the majority of the general public that they have really changed their wicked ways. It won't help DC if the Modern Conservative Party's message is negative negative negative. 'Broken this' 'broken that' ...
DC needs to be uplifting - and positive. It ain't happening.
Better the devil you know? That's what could happen.
Cameron needs to get rid of the right wing extremists in his party who are high profile. Otherwise, they will lose him the next election (Redwood, David Davis, Liam Fox, Sayeeda Warsi)... These people are huge turn offs.
I like David Cameron - I hope he is dynamic enough to convince all these undecided voters that is the real deal... I hope DC can convince me too. So far - I remain unconvinced. I know what's wrong with Labour - but what's so right about the Modern Conservative Party?
People want action; Brown is happy to deliver that. The conservative position is difficult to defend. The polls say it all.
Tax cuts will stimulate growth and expand the economy, and if done the right way, will also increase government revenue.
This is what conservatives have been waiting for since the early 1990s. Why argue against it now?
It should be a bouncing bomb perhaps. Down and Up and Down and Up and finally Down to nestle at the foot of the blockage ... the proof of concept being when it hopefully deals with the problem.
Spring, I reckon, for an election...shortly after the visit of Obama and a load of sycophantic drivel from the media.
I simply do not believe this latest MORI poll. I have many friends and acquaintencies. There opinion of Brown and this incompetent Labour Government has not changed at all. They think he, frankly, is a LIAR and a bigger one than Bliar.
A number (not many) are NUlabour supporters but even they are absolutely determined NOT to vote for Brown at the coming election.
NOW. Since I read this latest nonsense from MORI I emailed all my contacts and asked them If they had been contacted by MORI and if they can see any logic in the results. Also which party they would support in the next general election
OF 120 emails sent I have received 76 replies, I will get the others later I am sure, NOT ONE can see any logic or can agree with MORI's findings! NOT ONE was contacted by MORI. ALL WOULD VOTE TORY!!
Now I have requested all my 120 contacts to ask them to ask their contacts the same questions.
I will keep you posted.
BUT I WONDERED
...if EVERYONE who is a Tory supporter was to do the same with their contact list, asking their contacts to ask their contacts etc. etc. especially which party they would support
We should get a far clearer picture in 24 hours and from a far greater number of people.
LET US PROVE THESE 'POLLS' are works of fiction.
There will be a fair amount of pressure from the MP's with 5% majorities. Hmm... interwesting!
Chris Paul - err.. eh?
Obama dismissed pollster predictions stating they're unreliable; he focussed on the task in hand.
100% population input is necessary to cite percentages, the absence of which is purely misrepresentative speculation.
Obama dismissed pollster predictions stating they're unreliable; he focussed on the task in hand.
100% population input is necessary to cite percentages, the absence of which is purely misrepresentative speculation.
I imagine the driving force for this early election is Mr and Mrs Cooper-Balls.
Gordon the Great will promise to serve one more full term but not to fight another election.
Which opens the door for yet another unelected PM...
Not sure Labour have the money for a GE campaign, although the TV licence payer will be footing a large part of the bill, I'm sure. Labour are secure in parliament at the moment and another year of bullshit and spin from the BBC, may help them, but a depression and fiscal bankruptcy, probably won't. The media spin can only last so long, and the'll try and peak it in March 2009, after the next G20 Obamasiah visit, and before the economy really plummets and it is apparent that Gordon the saviour hasn't done a damn thing except make the country even poorer, then he'll call a GE in April, perhaps.
It will be interesting to see a Tory poster which says:
Gordon has had a Good Recession - Have You?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/images/2007/10/09/smilingbrown.gif
Its a gift from god this stuff.
Dave Cameron vs the Rest of the World on fiscal stimuli.
Its a recession boys, sit tight and it'll go away.
Cameron,Osborne and a couple of blokes from Idaho vs Western Governments.
he he.
John 4.06 pm: hatred is a bad thing. It is also the antithesis of democracy, which is based on the belief that honourable men may disagree and still be good people. By criticising the Tories as you do, you demean your own party as surely as a mad street preacher embarrasses ordinary Christians. It is far better to criticise what Osborne has said rather than to tell us how much you can't stand the sight of him.
Back on topic...
I don't agree with ConservativeHome claiming that Cameron's way involves the state sector sharing the pain with the private sector. He is promising 'lower increases'. True, this is not a cut, as Gordon will claim, but it is not much of a sharing either considering tax payers will be experiencing sharp drops in the income.
To John and other hate filled bloggers, Conservatives and socialists have always differed on means not ends. We all support a more just society with less poverty. Labour believes this can be achieved through monetary redistribution, spent via the state. Conservatives believe this can be better achieved with less government spending freeing up a far more effective 'invisible hand of the market'. We're not evil for thinking this, just of a different opinion.
The impression of "rich kids playing at it" lingers on.
You're underestimating human psychology here. Many studies show people will actually accept a tax cut today even if it means paying for it tomorrow.
Remember, we drink our socks off and suffer hangovers. We buy crap on credit cards and pay high interest rates on the debt. We scoff donuts and suffer obesity.
OK, maybe I'm not doing all the above but many people will vote for the party that says "you'll have a grand of your own money back", no matter what the cost tomorrow. People like to think they can see the long view but usually that is not the case.
With the Conservatives down to less than a 5% lead in the polls how long has Cameron got?
It is quite apparent that the Conservative Party has not learnt anything in opposition and can expect another 5 years of practice. By which time 100% of our laws will be made in Brussels and the election of our next regional government will be pointless.
Gordon Brown's biggest asset is clearly the media who have relentlessly and scandalously portrayed him as a hero.
If he wins the next election will the last person in Britain please turn off the light. And cut up your ID card too.
Thank goodness David Cameron has come out of his bunker at last!
I trust that he is now ignoring bi-partisanship over the economic mess the UK is in and that the Tories shall instead be be shouting relentlessly from the roof-tops day after day until the message gets home that it was "yesterdays man" Gordon Brown who gambled Las-Vegas style with the UK economy and screwed it up big time. New Labour are congenital liars and as such are a very easy target to hit providing you use the right ammunition.
The UK electorate are ready and desperate for clear, decisive, and tough action to sort out the mess as soon as possible. DC needs to spike Brown's guns by going on a relentless media offensive to spell out what his alternative way will be to restore the UK economy when he is elected PM.
Indeed the battle lines are drawn.
But it has taken Cameron and his relutant team kicking and screaming back to the Thatcherite right before the thick black marker was used.
Please STOP going on about the NHS computer system....The CFH Programme is on scheduled for completion by 2009...you cannnot save money that is spent.
The programme also included digital Xrays, goning to scrap them and bring back 1960 technology to the NHS are you !!!!
I believe either Tories or Labour will cut my taxes as much as I believe in Santa.
It is a bizzare game when two liars both pretend the other is the biggest fibber.
What I find really funny is that Dave's lead has been cut because of ... erm ... Dave and not a single person wants to mention it.
The new battleground of British politics as seen by Tory spin doctors.
Once Camoron is in he will ditch most of what he espouses now!
Electorates don't vote for tax rises.
I cannot recall the who candidates where in a US election many years ago. One candidate promised tax cuts, the other fiscal responsibility and probable tax rises.
Guess which was crushed flat in the lemming-like stampede to the voting booth (hint: after the elections they had tax cuts....)
@ Scary Biscuits
It's laughable to suggest that Tories and Labour share the same ends, but not means - Tories believe in the primacy of the individual and their right to trample on others for their own ends - socialism tells us to do as we'd be done by and accept our moral responsibility for each other's wellbeing. In any case, your characterisation of Labour as statist is false: don't forget that the roots of Labour are in cooperative and Christian movements which emphasised mutual care within strong communities - communities which the Tories deliberately destroyed. And your record rather bears out that you consider other things to be rather more important than poverty - tripling child poverty does not suggest a prioritisation of human need over greed, does it? Labour has morality on its side - simple as that. I certainly don't hate George Osborne, I just think he's repulsive as a person, because he so clearly typifies the smug, selfish, individualistic values of Conservatism - it's not pretty.
It is ironic, given the 10p fiasco earlier this year (which was largely responsible for Labour’s defeat at Crewe) and the fiasco that has been Brownian economic policy, that the latest MORI poll has Labour at 37% (+7), the Tories on 40% (-5) and the Lib Dems on 12% (-2).
It is now certain that Brown will call a spring 2009 election - or sooner if he can - because the electorate have fallen for Mandelson’s hyper-spinning. There’s also the Osborne effect where it truly is make or break time for the Tories and for their Shadow Chancellor in particular.
Osborne must (i) perform absolutely superbly at the PBR next week or (ii) he must go. If he doesn’t (i) and he doesn’t (ii), he will bring Cameron crashing down with him if Brown does what I believe he is now in poll position to do post-PBR, which is to call a January 2009 General Election.
The Tories have to offer a major cut in people’s income tax and not to be seen as Scrooge at Christmas. Read Roger Bootle’s article. Read Fraser Nelson’s. Listen to the people who know. Tax cuts stimulate the economy and they are also immensely popular.
It truly is make or break time. Don’t mess it up, Tories, for the sake of the country!
The comparison is one way of putting it. Another is to suggest that here is yet another party promising what it almost certainly can not deliver. Outside the Beltway, I suspect that people are thoroughly disillusioned by the parties' attacks and counter-attacks.
Would it not be better for the Tories to set themselves up as an alternative government rather than as an opportunistic and rather negative opposition to the current one?
Whatever people say, the fact is to have a 20% lead in the polls cut to 3% in a few weeks is a disaster. The best thing that could come out of this is that Britain ends up with a hung parliament and then a fairer election system (as the Lib Dems would force any coalition partner to go for PR). That way we won't be held to ransom by the 3 useless parties anymore and would vote for parties we really want.
Tory support is collapsing as they've fallen into Labour's trap of supporting their useless rescue plan and now have lost their own voice. If Tories are to stand a chance of a decent majority, then they should talk about a socially conservative message, as well as the economy. Cameron's speech today would be interpreted as a desire to cut public services, although that's not what he was saying.
Wait for the miserable Christmas and terrifying New Year as the bills crash onto doormats and the redundancies mount thick and fast. Festive Season? What Festivities?
Credit crunch? You ain't seen nothing yet. But the public are not going to be fooled. There's nothing that Brown can do or will do to alleviate the bitter Spring which will follow a grim Winter. If things go on at this rate we'll have three million unemployed by April at the latest.
Cameron and Osborne's warnings and change of approach will be shown to be prescient and, given the circumstances, wise. NuLab has already been clearly shown to be incompetent and mendacious. People understand the simple message that taxes actually are their own money being spent by the Government on projects which are downright wasteful.
If Brown calls an election for January or February he's committing suicide.
Verification 'bogie' - I kid you not!
People on here seem to believe that Brown has time, at least 6 months.
I think the economic situation is not now in Brown's control. Further weakness in sterling could well trigger very, very speedy ramifications.
Massive withdrawals of overseas capital out of the country (see use of the Terrorism law on Icelandic banks) and a gilt purchase 'strike' resulting in huge hikes in interest rates.
If that happens (and in my mind it's 50:50), Brown will NOT be in charge. The IMF will.
See Iceland - coming to a country near you - soon!
"Surely Brown couldn't be tempted into a January or February election. Could he?"
A previously absent Labour PPC has popped up in Barkingside.
Iain - read Alice Miles' piece in The Times.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/alice_miles/article5182992.ece
This reflects the feelings of the majority of hard working people in this country i.e. those whose votes will make the difference at the next election, as they have at the last seven elections.
Anon 8.35pm
"Once Camoron is in he will ditch most of what he espouses now!"
A bit rich calling DC a moron when your leader is called Gordon.
I'm sure Brown will call an early GE if he gets polling data showing a surge of support for Labour in 't key marginals. I WAS going to vote Conservative, but will sit on my hands. I can see no real difference btwn Lab/Con over any real substantive issue. No party is offering me anything so they will get a 'F Off' from me in return. It is the classic choice: 'which would you prefer out of the following 2 options: i) s*it, ii) s**te?' At least i have the pleasure in voting SNP ( a bunch of bampots) to keep Labour out in the Wilderness.
Will he be allowed to call an election by the EU? If the Tories win they have promised a referendum on the EU constitution and that must be prevented at all costs.
I could even imagine UKIP / Tory agreement not to oppose each others' candidates. "There are a number of things that we agree on the – the primary one being that the UK must not be bounced into an EU super-state on the basis of the deliberate lie in the last Labour Party manifesto".
The time is fast approaching to polarise politics and offer the public real change.
John 9.04 pm: you "don't hate George Osborne, I just think he's repulsive as a person". Are you sure you know what hate is? Defining people as repulsive is a prerequisit for hate.
You say, "Tories believe in the primacy of the individual and their right to trample on others for their own ends". Do you have any evidence for this? Can you find a single Tory anywhere who has said this on the record. You are confusing outcomes with motivations. You are forgetting that people, even your enemies, are not perfect. For example, Gordon Brown might have increased relative poverty whilst he has been in power; sink estates have sunk even lower. You do not know whether this is deliberate on his part, a stasticial lie concocted by his enemies or a genuine unintended consequence on his part.
Any Conservative who assumes he has done this on purpose is making the same mistake as you are if you assume that the Tories deliberately prioritised "greed over need".
I am a Christian as well as a Conservative and it saddens me that what you believe is all too common. People dismiss each other's ideas as stupid or ill-intentioned, thereby giving them an excuse not to engange with them. It is intellectually stunted.
For your own personal growth, it would be a good idea to assume that your opponent (whether political or in your personal life) is well-intentioned, even if you don't believe it in your heart. You might be surprised at the outcome and how people will warm to you, how you become more persuasive once people start to reciprocate the trust and honour that you have shown to them.
Scary Biscuits, I think you are wasting your time.
The ranting of John 9.04 pm about Conservatism is akin to the ranting of Richard Dawkins about Christianity. Dawkins hasn't got a clue about what contemporary Christians actually believe, and John hasn't got a clue about the philosophical basis of Conservatism.
I suggest John does a little research, starting perhaps with Edmund Burke and Disraeli, and spares us from further extracts from his GCSE project until he has something sensible to say.
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