Saturday, November 22, 2008

Brown Bounce: Well That Didn't Last Long...

From PA...

The Tories are clinging on to their double-digit lead over Labour, according to a poll published tonight. The ICM survey for the Sunday Mirror found the Conservatives still 11 points ahead of Labour - suggesting talk of a 2009 general election may be premature. It put the Conservatives on 42% (down one since last month), Labour on 31% (up one) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (up one).

It was ridiculous for commentators to interpret the 3% lead in the MORI poll as the turnaround for Brown. One poll. Yes, the Tory lead has fallen since the summer, but ICM, ComRes and YouGov are fairly consistent in showing a lead of 8-13 points. The polling community continues to be suspicious about MORI's methodology.

Tory supporters should not get downcast about the odd poll showing a narrowing lead. I'd happily settle for a ten point lead IN ADVANCE of a recession which will be much longer and deeper than most are predicting. I don't say that with any relish at all.

UPDATE: More HERE from UK Polling Report.

21 comments:

no longer anonymous said...

Damn, this will presumably mean no Spring 2009 election. We're stuck with that weirdo until 2010.

brian in the tamar valley said...

This ICM poll once again reinforces my view that Brown won't make a dash for it in 2009. As I've commented before he's got a good working majority. Why risk a wafer thin majority, a hung parliament or even a clear Tory victory. Imagine trying to govern for 5 years if you had a majority of half a dozen - it would be absolutely crazy.

Brown is relatively comfortable at the moment but in this televisual age Cameron ought to make mincemeat of him in a 3 week GE campaign. No, 2010 will be the time he will go to the country.

Tony Sharp said...

As much as I would like this lead to be rock solid, I think these numbers remain soft. We need the leadership to push a positive, common sense agenda that addresses how we will tackle the recession. What we have heard to date does not go far enough.

norman said...

This poll in his Sunday paper will wipe off the smile from Kevin Maguire's face.
He was gloating that his Fuhrer Gordo
has a thousand year regime!

Cameron and his team should pick just 3 messages, two on economy and one on immigration and hit Gordo week by week in the media and in the PMQs, just to show the the Tories have a consistent message. Gordo keeps on repeating that Cameron changes policies and Lord Sleaze also says that. That must be their plan. Hence hitting them with 3 messages week in and week out should flatten them out..

Vienna Woods said...

I see that history is being rewritten again by Bragger Brown in tomorrow's News of the Screws. In an article, he writes,

"In Britain we can afford to do more now because of the tough action we have taken over the past 10 years to get our national debt down and ensure inflation has remained under control."

He reminds me very much of a psychiatric patient who was such an inveterate liar that when caught out, stated that she knew she was telling lies but at the time of telling the lies she believed she was telling the truth. The poor soul caused havoc within her family and has been in an institution for a number of years. Maybe we could have Brown committed in the same way! (Unless, of course some labour troll will advise us exactly what these wonderful "actions" were)

Lord Elvis of Paisley said...

Yes, but what's the betting the majority of the MSM continue quoting the 3% MORI poll? Fancy a wager?

Further, we were out doorstepping today and regardless of what the media are trying to represent, the word on the street is not good for Brown or Labour. In an area that's been largely Labour in the last few years, we received a lot of support today and the Conservative message is getting through that if households are having to tighten their belts, then the Government needs to tighten its belt as well.

Anoneumouse said...

Hmmmm, not so much "Worcester woman" but duff Worcester man

Paul Pinfield said...

I am relieved to see a double digit lead again. The 3% lead as claimed by the MORI poll had me really worried that the population really were as stupid as Brooon believes. Why else would he spout the shite that he does?

Blue Eyes said...

Will everyone please stop telling pollsters that they will vote Conservative? If we can get Brown out in 2009 then it will be better for everyone.

Newmania said...

A general election with 3 mio unemployed and a Labour Party openly admitting to tax rises ?

In the bag old son in the jolly old bag.

Newmania said...

hey does this mean Polly Toynbee will be anti Brown again? She must be getting giddy

Lord Elvis of Paisley said...

"A general election with 3 mio unemployed and a Labour Party openly admitting to tax rises ?"

And cuts in public spending. Don't forget the Labour cuts in public spending...

Paul Pinfield said...

Totally off topic but... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/3502621/Pre-Budget-report-Big-VAT-cuts-to-boost-spending-in-emergency-budget.html

To be clear, for every £11.75 I spend, I will save exactly 25 pence. Compare this reality to Brooon's of "real help in difficult times - we will take people through the downturn fairly".

The Wilted Rose said...

I think maybe people have cottoned on to how useless Brown is at dealing with emotional issues, like Baby P's vile murder.

And, of course, the Labour tax con. Roll on Monday - if the Tories get it right, Brown's sunk.

Vermicious Knid said...

It always seems amazing how excited the commentariat get when opinion polls come out. MORI always seems to show a lower Tory and Lib Dem vote share, and despite a poll only 24 hours before the MORI one showing a consistent Tory lead of 8 points (i think) - all the broadcasters referred to the MORI poll.
Sadly, the confirmation of the Tory lead will mean we will have to put up with the profligate one eyed monster for the longest time possible.

Man in a Shed said...

I'm with no longer anonymous on this.

We need Brown out asap and tempting him into a general election appears to be the only way now that Labour MPs have put their careers and pensions before the country.

Marcus said...

Labour MPs who would lose their seats on this poll:

Alan Campbell - Tynemouth
Albert Owen - Ynys Mon
Andrew Dismore - Hendon
Andrew Slaughter - Ealing Central and Acton
Andy Reed - Loughborough
Angela Smith - Basildon South and East Thurrock
Ann Cryer - Keighley
Ann Keen - Brentford and Isleworth
Anna Snelgrove - Swindon South
Anne McGuire - Stirling
Barbara Follett - Stevenage
Ben Chapman - Wirral South
Betty Williams - Aberconwy
Bill Olner - Nuneaton
Bill Rammell - Harlow
Bob Blizzard - Waveney
Brian Jenkins - Tamworth
Celia Barlow - Hove
Chris Mole - Ipswich
Christine McCafferty - Calder Valley
Christine Russell - Chester, City of
Claire Curtis-Thomas - Sefton Central
Claire Ward - Watford
Clive Efford - Eltham
Colin Burgon - Elmet and Rothwell
Dan Norris - Somerset North East
Dari Taylor - Stockton South
David Borrow - Ribble South
David Chaytor - Bury North
David Crausby - Bolton North East
David Drew - Stroud
David Kidney - Stafford
David Lepper - Brighton Pavilion
David Taylor - Leicestershire North West
Desmond Turner - Brighton Kemptown
Doug Naysmith - Bristol North West
Eric Martlew - Carlisle
Fabian Hamilton - Leeds North East
Geraldine Smith - Morecambe and Lunesdale
Gillian Merron - Lincoln
Gisela Stuart - Birmingham Edgbaston
Gordon Banks - Ochil and South Perthshire
Gordon Prentice - Pendle
Greg Pope - Hyndburn
Gwyn Prosser - Dover
Helen Southworth - Warrington South
Howard Stoate - Dartford
Ian Austin - Dudley North
Ian Cawsey - Brigg and Goole
Ian Pearson - Dudley South
Jacqui Smith - Redditch
James Plaskitt - Warwick and Leamington
Jamie Reed - Copeland
Janet Anderson - Rossendale and Darwen
Janet Dean - Burton
Jim Fitzpatrick - Poplar and Limehouse
Jim Knight - Dorset South
Jim Murphy - Renfrewshire East
Joan Humble - Blackpool North and Cleveleys
John Hutton - Barrow and Furness
John Smith - Vale of Glamorgan
Jonathan Shaw - Chatham and Aylesford
Judy Mallaber - Amber Valley
Julie Morgan - Cardiff North
Kali Mountford - Colne Valley
Karen Buck - Westminster North
Laura Moffatt - Crawley
Linda Gilroy - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Linda Riordan - Halifax
Lynda Waltho - Stourbridge
Margaret Moran - Luton South
Mark Todd - Derbyshire South
Marsha Singh - Bradford West
Martin Linton - Battersea
Martin Salter - Reading West
Mary Creagh - Wakefield
Michael Foster - Worcester
Michael Foster - Hastings and Rye
Michael Wills - Swindon North
Mike Hall - Weaver Vale
Nick Ainger - Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
Nick Palmer - Broxtowe
Nigel Griffiths - Edinburgh South
Parmjit Dhanda - Gloucester
Patrick Hall - Bedford
Paul Truswell - Pudsey
Phil Hope - Corby
Phyllis Starkey - Milton Keynes South
Robert Marris - Wolverhampton South West
Roger Berry - Kingswood
Russell Brown - Dumfries and Galloway
Ruth Kelly - Bolton West
Sadiq Khan - Tooting
Sally Keeble - Northampton North
Sarah McCarthy-Fry - Portsmouth North
Shahid Malik - Dewsbury
Shona McIsaac - Cleethorpes
Sylvia Heal - Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Tom Levitt - High Peak
Tony McNulty - Harrow East
Tony Wright - Great Yarmouth
Vernon Coaker - Gedling

Colin said...

Let's not get too complacent please.

The fact of the matter remains that the Tories don't have anything to counter the regime news and narrative management capability.

dalesman said...

Shame it's not showing 3%, Brown may have gone for a snap election.

We need to get rid of this man quickly.

cherami said...

Someone (Hazel Blears?) could win a lot of Brownie points by asking for a Speaker's Conference to get rid of this nonsense of Prime Minister's being able to call elections for party political reasons and instead having fixed term parliaments.

There are other reforms needed but that would be a start.

Travis Bickle said...

Funny how Marr only mentioned the LibDems being down at 19% to the surrogate patron saint of the BBC Vince Cable (when St Al of Gore otherwise engaged spreading his huge carbon footprint across the world lecturing the rest of us to use low energy light bulbs).