Saturday, November 15, 2008

Osborne Slams Sterling Collapse

The bad thing about writing a fortnightly column in the Telegraph is that you always want to write the column on the 'off' week. This week is a good case in point. So far this week Iain Martin and Janet Daley have both written columns calling for George Osborne to be moved. And then today, Robert Winnett writes a lengthy news story based on the call by Lord Kalms for George to be replaced by David Davis. I'm not quite sure what my colleagues at the Telegraph have got against George Osborne, but had I written my column this week at least I could have countered some of this wild and whacky speculation.

Alice Thomson and Rachel Sylvester have interviewed the Shadow Chancellor for today's Times. I'm delighted to see that he takes up the issue of the collapsing value of Sterling, which he attributes to the government's borrowing frenzy.
“Sterling has devalued rapidly against the euro and the dollar. We are in danger, if the Government is not careful, of having a proper sterling collapse, a run on the pound. The danger of a run on the pound . . . is that it pushes up long-term interest rates, which is a huge burden on the economy. The more you borrow as a government the more you have to sell that debt and the less attractive your currency seems.”

Bang on. Labour are now hilariously trying to blame the collapse of Sterling on George Osborne. You couldn't make it up. I predicted a few days ago that Sterling was about to become the big political and economic news story. I'm almost sorry to be proved right.

There are two things the Conservatives now need to constantly remind the electorate about.

1. Unemployment is always higher at the end of a Labour government than when it came into office. Cecil Parkinson discovered this astonishing fact just before the 1983 election and used it to good effect. History is about to repeat itself.

2. Virtually every Labour government suffers from a Sterling crisis - think back to 1967 and 1976. Tory governments haven't been immune either (yes, 1992 before anyone says anything), but sterling crises seem to be in Labour's DNA.


The next fortnight is a crucial one for George Osborne - slap bang in the middle of it comes the pre budget report. Osborne is as resilient as his leader and I fully expect him to bounce back from the difficulties of the last few weeks. If he shows resilience, the ability to streetfight and a clear strategy demonstrating how the Conservatives would handle the current difficulties, then he will silence his critics and emerge as the political heavyweight many of us believe him to be.

63 comments:

Will Yoxall said...

Bang on Iain. You offer astute analysis as ever - sterling is in trouble and we're importing inflation, one of the key reasons fuel prices are still so high.

Good on you for sticking up for George Osborne, he's done the right thing biding his time and assessing how the land will lay in the months ahead. Today he has made a very substantive point and will do well in the next few weeks. Yachtgate was unfortunate but those briefing against Osborne should be ashamed of themselves, is simple enough united we stand, divided we fall.

BTW - Sky have just done an appalling report trotting out the Labour line the politicians shouldn't talk down sterling and it’s all a cynical ploy. Sterling has lost 30% of its value in a month - that is largely down to Gordon Brown's profligacy and recklessness. Ultimately George Osborne can't do half as much damage as Gordon has.

Pogo said...

Mervyn King is probably as responsible as anyone - every time he opens his gob Sterling plummets.

Interestingly, I've heard from a (usually) quite reliable source that not very long ago HMG was the second-largest buyer of US Treasuries, beaten only by China. To my simple mind, that looks horribly like the government setting out to short Sterling, so all the talk of doom, gloom and despondency by the MSM and BBC are aiding and abetting somewhat dubious, large-scale, financial shenannigans.

Of course, I could be completely wrong, and will don my tinfoil hat immediately after posting this, just in case.

Waiting for Houdini said...

"he will silence his critics and emerge as the political heavyweight many of us believe him to be."

Quite. Iain. The proof of the pudding, and all that.

Let us see if he can deliver, otherwise...

215cu said...

Sterling's collapse only confirms to everyone what the world thinks of our chances.

Poor. We are all going to suffer thanks to Brown's bungling.

And Brown want to borrow more money to fund tax cuts?

Want to see a real run on Sterling?

Jesus wept.

Anonymous said...

Iain, Any chance of picking out 6 numbers for this week's lottery ??

Paddy Briggs said...

The problem is that Osborne doesn’t have any ideas – other than his tired old non-ideas about the problem with the British economy being that it is too regulated and that the Tories will free up business to put everything right. True we haven’t heard this nonsense that much recently (I wonder why?) but from the moment that Laurel and Hardy took the Party over this was their one cry. Not much else in the cupboard is there?

Stan: "Well, I don't know anything about covering my tracks"
Ollie: "Well, you ought to. You once told me your father was in the wallpaper business."
Stan: "Well, I know he was but it was only in a small way."

Anonymous said...

I can't see the sense in George Osborne allowing the blame for a further collapse in sterling to be put on him by Brown. What has Osborne achieved exactly?

norman said...

There is build up Brown the economist
genius of this world is going on with the combined efforts of Guardian, Independent (Richrds et al..), BBC Nick Robinson and the Labour Party. Nick Robison talking to Paul Krugman and saying how Krugman the Nobel Prize winner praised Brown and how Krugman is linked to Obama. There are two fallacies here which Nick cleverly hides. 1) Krugman is not neutral, but was associated with Strathclyde Business School where Wendy Alexander, the ex-Scottish Labour Leader and sister of Doug Alexander together her husband collaborated with Krugman in the past, writing articles etc.. There is rumour that Krugman visited them. So anything Krugman states is to be viewed in this light. If you look at what Nick says what Krugman said about Brown.. It is full of superlatives like Brown awesome, pretty smart professor etc.. No Nobel Laureates use that kind of words. Krugman got his Nobel Prize in economics much like Nobel Peace prize, has huge whiff of politics, his colleagues in Columbia university were very surprised as the work cited was mostly of Krugman's collaborator, an Indian colleague called Prof Bagawati.

Anyway, for the above bunch of Labour +BBC + Guardian +Indpendent the facts do not matter.

2) Krugman does not have close links with Obama, but Paul Volker has who was ex-Fed chief. Today Gordo is warning Obama not to support the American auto industry with billions of dollars.
Bush does not want it. Obama will do it as Ford, GM and Chrysler are all bankrupt and the middle class ( working class for us) workers are losing jobs in thousands.
If Brown is such a tall world economist, why would Obama not meet him? Instead Brown is meeting with Obama transition team like French and Germans doing now.

Today, the run on the pound and British pathetic state of economy will not convince the world that Brown is a person listening to. Dollar is strong as is Euro despite recessions in USA and Europe.

Brown is one ego-centric deluded man. We know what he really is 'Boom and Bust' Brown. Brown attempts to neutralise unpopularity at home by the tricks
he is adopting abroad will not work. The Japnese will be listened to as they have seen this stuation in their country. The major American media does not report Brown. Not even in the Liberal blogs like Huffington Post and Politico.

strapworld said...

Iain, Osborne is politically inept.

The government are, rightly, reeling from the disgusting death of Baby P - the news that three ministers were written to and none replied shows this government up to what it really is!

THEY have made this issue political well and truly. THUS when the heat is on WHO gives them a lifeline..your buddy OSBORNE.

Now I do not know what qualities this man possesses. I asked in another place and I was informed NEUS!...ie. common sense! I do not think so.

But today he has shown total political and strategic deficiency!

Whilst I do admire loyalty, iain, a quality I have instilled in my children, How can anyone display loyalty to a man who backstabbed his colleagues to Mandleson of all people.

That,to me, is the lowest of the low.

Anonymous said...

You think sterling os our only problem?

Have a look at iceland - it will give you an idea of what's about to happen here. The economy is forecast to shrink 8.3% next year and infaltion run at 16% plus.

It's coming here - and much, much sooner than you could possibly imagine.

Rohan said...

Sorry old chap can't agree. Boy George has been out of his depth here. And this interview hardly makes up for the disastrous performance of previous weeks. Its stating the bleeding obvious that anyone who reads the financial pages of a decent page would have been well aware of last month. He's in the wrong post I'm afraid. Every time Ken Clarke or John Redwood says something it makes him look trite or out of his depth. Either Clarke or Redwood would be a better shadow. Problem is of course they'd probably eclipse Davey Boy. And we can't have that can we?

Andy said...

You can say what you like about Osborne but is is just silly to call him a "streetfighter"!
Streetfighters in business and politics and streets i guess, are people who have had to fight for things in their life and so know how to stand up to keep what they believe in.
You cannae say that about little George for all his other strengths.

The Editor said...

This is what he's really worried about!

http://thestupidtimes.blogspot.com/2008/11/osborne-fears-donations-collapse.html

Man in a Shed said...

Labour have talked Stirling down with the prospect of massive borrowing and reducing government income (aka fiscal stimulus - ie tax cuts - really election bribes ).

When Gordon was trying to persuade the Saudi's to give great dollops of cash to the IMF - he was thinking of the future - his future....

Minesapint said...

Good on you, Iain, for flagging Sterling’s devaluation earlier this week.

At long last the Shadow Chancellor has started to talk about this major issue, but I think it was unwise of him to pitch this as a risk for the future. Predictably this has allowed the Labour party and their propaganda machine to blame Osborne for any further falls in Sterling, detracting from Brown’s total culpability in all this.

Instead, Osborne should have made a huge play on the collapse of Sterling that has already taken place – down 25% on the US Dollar in 3 months and 22% on the Euro in 15 months. If that’s not a run, what is? Yet another open goal being wasted.

There is still time to redress this before the markets open on Monday. The big hitters in the Tory party need to get on the news, in the Sundays, and on the talking head shows, to make the public fully aware of just how far and how fast the Pound has already fallen. Joe Public doesn’t watch the Forex charts on a day to day basis, and only notices how bad the conversion rate is when they go on their annual holiday abroad. Some of the graphs of Sterling recent collapse paint the picture very well and should be given a much wider airing.

Man in a Shed said...

PS The dramatic cut in interest rates combined with primises of more cuts and massive unfunded borrowing are most likely to cause a crash int he value of the pound.

Labour need to realise they aren't in their Alice in Neverland narrative and that real people are going to get very hurt by their dishonestly and selfishness of failure and burnt out politicians and their over promoted spAds who have been rewarded for the sycophantic crawling to the boss by being made MPs and minsters.

Anonymous said...

Kalms may want Osborne to go, but Brown doesn't!

At this rate Osborne will cause a run on the ToriesToby Helm in Washington guardian.co.uk, Saturday November 15 2008 11.03 GMT Article historyMuch interest - and not a little joy - among the prime minister's inner circle here in Washington about George Osborne's dire warning of a run on the pound if Brown presses ahead with yet more borrowing.

People travelling with the PM could hardly wait for Brown to emerge from dinner last night with George Bush to inform him. Officials said they were astonished that a shadow chancellor could have talked of a run on the pound in such a way, almost inviting it to happen.

Could it be the end of Osborne, everyone was asking ? "God, I hope not," said one of Brown's close associates, willing him to stay on until the next election.

Peter said...

The best thing about British politics is that our politicians have to prove themselves able to withstand all that is thrown at them, they can not get by just by being able to make a good speach unlike the Yanks.
Osborne will be tested in the next few weeks if he passes that test he will make the grade.

Lola said...

I'd forgotten that Parkinson fact about unemployment. Memo to self. Modify 'Socialism is nothing but a wealth destruction machine" to "Socilaism is nothing but a wealth and work destruction machine".

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic. Every single 'socialist' administration in any country at any time you care to name always but always cocks up mightily. It just takes longer sometimes than others for this to become evident.

This 'socialist' government got into power by the use of deceit and presentation. It has stayed in power by spending other peoples money to buy votes and by deceit and presentation. Brown is now trying to save his skin by....deceit and presentation.

Martin said...

Iain, I'm pleased there is no prospect of you, your readers or George Osbourne ever being Chancellor. The simple fact is that the speculators (you know, the guys with yachts who got us into this s**t in the first place) have to bet against someone to make more easy profits. Even these guys can't hurt the Dollar or the Euro too much - so what's left? The idiots in the Channel who didn't join the Euro. What an easy target we are to make a quick buck! We are now starting to realise the real consequences of not having joined the Euro and an economic ignoramus like Tory-boy Osborne (truly the blind leading the blind!) is a gamble too far! If Cameron wants to have any chance of winning the next General he needs to get rid of this fool now.

However, it says something about Cameron that the one he felt most uncomfortable about is now an increasingly successful Mayor and his closest ally and friend is turning out to be his biggest problem!

Shame politicians don't have transfer fees, like footballers. What would we get for Vince Cable. Bet David and his friends wold sell their silver spoons for that one!

Lola said...

In re Osborne perhaps he needs to get genuinely angry with Brown. Perhaps he needs to make very clear with actual fury just how Brown has ruined us all and how this ruination visits itself most severely on the lowest paid in our country. Some passion would not come amiss.

davefromluton said...

Brown and economic management is just a version of the King's New Clothes.
His policies got us into the disastrous mess we are in and now he wants to inflict it on the rest of the world. Hubristic or what!
Osbourn and the rest of the Tories need to expose the extent of our mess and show the full extent of Government borrowing - on and off balance sheet

David Lindsay said...

The weak pound will restore the manufacturing base of this country. That's why Osborne is against it. And that's why the North and the Midlands will reject his party again next time.

Eddie said...

Only this morning I was looking back at some of the news report from 2005, when Brown redefined the economic cycle so that he would meet his Golden Rule. He did it by adding in a further 2 years at the start of the cycle.

At the time of moving the goal posts there was a great deal of speculation that Brown had done it so as to ease his move into the Premiership, when the opportunity arose. There was also speculation that come 2007 the country would face difficult decisions on raising taxes or cutting spending because the Government finances were going to be in such poor state.

Of course Browns people moved against Blair in the Autumn of 2006 to finally get a commitment that he would step down early 2007.

So Browns management of the economy was all about his Premiership - not what was right for the country.

...and now what?

As he faces the prospect of an electoral annihilation he raises the prospect of borrowing billions to offer a tax give away.

It is cynical.

I just hope the public do not allow this man to get away with the damage he is happy to inflict on the economy for the sake of his own vain legacy.

Chris Paul said...

Employment is higher now Iain. The population has grown quite a bit one way and another. Absolute numbers are therefore a poor guide.

As for the "run on the pound"? Some change in the exchange rate is almost inevitable as interest rates change. And it must be said that those who were shorting bank stocks may well now be turning their attention to shorting currencies.

Osborne is economically illiterate or disingenuous. And why would he want to talk up this "run on the pound"? How very traitorous to speculate in this way.

Stick him on a gibbet next to Guido.

"Political heavyweight" my arse. Though he is shipping a bit of lard as he gets older.

norman said...

The Labour nitwits here, they are many as one can see, are suggesting that Stirling will collapse because a shadow chancellor is warning that the Pound has dipped from the level of 2.0 to 1.47 against Dollar and has run because of the incompetence of another nitwit called Brown. These nitwits argument is hilarious. At the same time they are saying Osborne is light weight and Boy George. If he is so inept and light weight, why the market should take notice of a light weight shadow chancello?! If Osborne has such a sway on the markets, surely he is not light weight? How can Cameron not believable as the trolls and Brown are suggesting if markets are taking note of what they are saying seriously?

These Labour nitwits who troll here know in their hearts where the problems lie-at the feet of 'Boom and Bust' Brown. The economic fundamentals of UK are like a third world African country. His appointee BOE King and his chancellor through their ineptness have suffciently depressed the Pound. Osborne is stating the obvious.
Labour spin is not working. Broen is not world statesman.

Tory Boy said...

The collapse of sterling is the international money markets saying that they have no confidence in Her Majesty's Government's economic policy. That simple

Jonathan M. Scott said...

Osborne still has a bright political future - as someone said, he's a "20 year prospect" but he would be irrevocably damaged if he stays in his current post and if any blame were to be attached to him for a poor general election performance.

I have to say that agree with Lord Kalms that David Davis should be appointed Shadow Chancellor, but then I was one of the first to suggest this appointment before the summer.

Cameron on society (as he aptly demonstrated this week in his fury at Brown's despicable reaction to Haringey Council's culpability in the murder of baby P) and Davis on the economy and on civil liberties would

(i) slaughter Brown and Darling,
(ii) kick Lord Mandy's planned Spring 2009 election into the long grass, and
(iii) not only regain a huge Tory poll lead but also bring a landslide victory in the 2010 general election.

It's a no-brainer.

uk-events said...

Apparently opposition shouldn't criticise government policy.

Talk about the lunatics taking over the asylum!

If Brown hadn't got us into such a mess then there would be nothing for him to say.

Mind you, I have to be honest, speaking for myself i'd be more than happy to get some form of tax rebate and to hell with the economy.

This society needs some massive adjustment and if that means many people who've profiteered over the last decade losing their shirts, so be it.

My heart won't bleed for them.

norman said...

I had a call from one of my friend's son who is economics repoter from one of the big four news channels.

He says that among the G20 leaders, Brown is considered close to Bush as he has been in UK government as cancellor during the BUSH's 8 years and hence seen as 'yesterday' leader like Bush. He says the leaders most noticed are
Japanese PM, Chinese leader, Angela Merkel and Sarkozy. Japanese PM because Japan had had experience in handling recessions a few years ago. Chinese leader because China hold trillions of Dollars and a major nation for outsourced manufacturing which Obama wants to bring it to home.
Merkel because Germany is the powerhourse of the EU and Sarkozy because of his closeness in political and economic terms with Obama.

That leaves 'Boom and Bust' Brown wandering in the streets of NY and Washington just as he did when Pope arrived there and having dinner with another yesterday leader Bush. No doubt Guardian and BBC reporters will keep him company.

This reporter friend also says that Obama's transition team has not failed to notice the implied criticism of Obama by Brown as Brown has called for no support to automobile manufacturers (The times also reports). Support to them will be initial act when Obama takes over. Brown has made himself a foolin USA which we know here through his utter delusion and ego-centric estimation of himself as the economic genius.

No doubt the BBC, Labour spin machine and the trolls here would trumpet Brown as the most important leader in G20. That is their illusion. The world thinks otherwise.

Rex said...

I have just watched the news on France 24 and according to them the world bank reforms were initiated and are being led by Sarkosy. No mention was made of Brown. Somewhat at odds with the Brown spin.

Also BBC and Sky news were reporting the Osbourne's comments on extra borrowing, most of the commentators were saying that he is probably correct but were more concerned that he has broken the normal protocol on the issue and if sterling slumps any further then Osbourne will be to blame and not Brown.

WHAT! Surely in these exceptional times it is the job of the opposition to raise the issue when our useless PM is taking us down a path of near destruction.
Would the country forgive the tories if that said after the event "We knew this would happen but didn't say so because of protocol"

I detect a nasty smell of a Mandleson/Campbell smear campaign against Osbourne!

But just like Blair, after his surrender on our EU contributions, Brown will come back and tell us that he has again saved the world.

When are the BBC and Sky, plus the Labour press going to wake up. Just how far to destruction will he have to drag us down before it sinks in. Browns ineptitude is going to affect them also.
Big Time!

Anonymous said...

In any of the blogs in which this little man is discussed, the general verdict is that he should be removed.

Those who say not are, like yourself Mr Dale, too close to the centre and away from ordinary people. Those that are not involved in the westminster bubble.

At the barbers this morning I was with three barbers, six customers. people from all walks of life. Everyone was sick to death of Brown and this government. All without exception wanted rid of them.

But when it came to who should replace them. Two wanted Cameron without hesitation. Three had no time for Cameron, but supported him over baby P. One thought Cameron represented the Bankers and three had no idea whatsoever what they would do with the economy!

When this mornings news came up and Osborne. Everyone was absolutely scathing about him and Mandleson and the Yacht. Anchor with a capital W was the general observation.

So, Mr dale. try as you may and you are, obviously entitled to your opinion. But out here in the hard real world. Your view is not supported.

Cameron had better get his act in order and realise that there are people, with real views, outside Notting Hill and Westminster.

By the way Clegg was, rather interestingly, admired by most.

Anonymous said...

What Boy George says may well be right but it's timing I suspect has more to do with saving his front bench job.Too little,too late!

Anonymous said...

If we leave the politics out of it, and the economics too, and just take the charts as a technical puzzle there are a few signposts worth noticing.

Yes, Sterling has suffered a dramatic decline in the last twelve months which is especially noticeable against the Euro, Yen and US$. However, if you look at the GBP/USD chart we're actually not that far away from a potential mid-term consolidation area in the region of 1.4000 to 1.3500. This is where we hit the 2001 lows so there may be some technical support here and there may well be attempts to consolidate around this level.

If this support doesn't hold then there could be a further very dramatic decline.

p.s. comments are not to be taken as financial advice.

DanielClarke said...

You seem to be in denial about how crap Osborne is. Presumably what the Telegraph have against him is that they want someone who is actually effective as their party's economic spokesman. I would like to see him remain as the shadow Chancellor so that he can continue your party's pathetic response to the economic crisis. The last thing we in the Labour Party want is David Davis or god forbid Ken Clarke as shadow Chancellor. We might get a bit of opposition then. Although you can feel free to replace Gideon with wee Willy Hague. That would be going from the 'cor blimey' to the bloody ridiculous lol.

trevorsden said...

The Telegraph too is intent on shooting the messenger. The telegraph stinks to high heaven. All true tories should stop buying it.

"his tired old non-ideas about the problem with the British economy being that it is too regulated" --- Paddy you are dim.
Brown has been bragging for years about his light touch regulation. Its Brown who has cocked up regulation.

"The weak pound will restore the manufacturing base of this country." - like Wilsons devaluation did you mean?
What a hoot - the falling pound will increase the cost of our imports, add to inflation. It will make us uncompetitive. After 12 years of Brown we have nothing to export anyway.

Chris Paul should look at this ...
http://croydonian.blogspot.com/2008/11/brilliance-of-mr-brown.html
and then ask his hero Brown 'where did it all go wrong.
Its not before time some one warned of the dangers to Sterling
like here
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1085551/Fears-mount-sterling-slides-dangerous-low.html

Someone also says that Osborne has ignored previous recent falls of Sterling. Really?
Here are his words
"Sterling has devalued rapidly against the euro and the dollar. We are in danger, if the Government is not careful, of having a proper sterling collapse, a run on the pound. "
So any comment is put in the context of previous falls.
Take a look at the link above it clearly shows the Pounds struggle - thanks to Chairman Brown

Martin Day said...

Why I think Gordon Brown is going to the country in the spring of 2009:

I have noticed a few political and non political movements and can say I think it highly likely that Gordon Brown is going to Cut and Run and call an early General Election. Brown has avoided outright media speculation but the point has now come where Gordon Brown will have to face questions and either call an election or rule one out for the spring of 2009.

Brown is obviously clearing the decks by the considerable legislative U-turns of late and shelving into the long grass like post office closure. The cynical Brown/Mandelson reasoning is to leave the hard choices and unpopularity for the next post GE Government.

Brown has scrapped the 50 Labour party achievements list since 1997 and has even removed the 2005 Labour Manifesto from the Labour party website. Maybe the references to ‘No more Boom and Bust’ were just too much for Brown. Other interesting Labour party movements are advertising for election personnel on fixed term contracts and the Labour party now calling itself *Britain’s Democratic Socialist party lead by Gordon Brown*.

The coming Pre-Budget report is also likely to increase tax credits in a cynical pre-election bribe to enable Gordon Brown to make party politics about a Tory Government taking them away. Gordon Brown seems to go out of his way to make party political points out of the hardship he has created. Gordon Brown is a ruthless party political politician – He knows no shame when it comes to taking political credit.

Brown knows that unemployment is a lagging economic indicator and that to leave a general election any longer, means the dole queues will be huge and this is the only thing Brown does not want the credit for! The 10p Tax deception and its political fix also expire at the end of fiscal year 2008-2009. Be in no doubt that Brown will calculate that he can pull Darling’s strings to extend this and call an election as late as June, then if he won have a mini budget and remove these measures.

The Cynical Gordon Brown will also have calculated that Britain takes up the chairmanship of the G20 in the first quarter of 2009. Brown thinks that this will be a strong card for him - international statesman and all that. However, there could well be a problem in that it makes Brown look domestically remote, more interested in taking the credit internationally for something than dealing with the hard decisions back home as he has deferred these post General Election.

The last reason I think Brown is going to call an early 2009 general election is potentially the most cynical of all but equally damning to the most repugnant British politician in the post war period. Brown will calculate that a major terrorist atrocity could well hit the United States, Britain or an ally in the transitional period or early part of Obama’s term. Brown will hope to get a bounce like Blair did after 9/11, so that he can use the Credit in an election campaign

life is not fair said...

Osbourne did not start this Sterling slide, however his comments on the matter come in the same bracket as Clegg's 6th form debating society manners.

The Dark Lord seems to be earning his keep, I wonder just how much he and Campbell are costing us?

Votedave said...

Gordon Brown says he regrets the Opposition's "partisan" remarks.

So every time we criticise his government, constructively holding them to account - which is the whole point of being in Opposition - we're being partisan? What planet is he on?

hopisen said...

Iain, I hope you don't write an article about the wild and wacky speculation, because then I'd have to write a letter to the Telegraph pointing our that less htan two months ago you were calling for Osborne to be moved and Ken Clarke to be made Chancellor!

John said...

What would Osborne do? Ask a Russian billionaire for a loan? I see 'Our Dave's' hunting pal Otis Ferry is in clink again..

John Pickworth said...

David Lindsay said...

The weak pound will restore the manufacturing base of this country. That's why Osborne is against it. And that's why the North and the Midlands will reject his party again next time.

Hahahaha.... that's so 1970's

If only it worked like that these days. In any case, if it did, wouldn't the work be attracted to Iceland's crippled currency rather than to the UK's merely wounded one?

The simple fact is, the weak Pound means your energy and raw material costs are at least 25-30% higher before you've even produced your first widget.

Osborne is right... only a fool would ignore his timely warning.

Gordon Brown is operating a Shell Game with the economy and we're all going to lose our money BIG TIME!

NigelC said...

Gordon Brown now "regrets" that Osbourne is now holding him to account.
Brown really is pathetic

norman said...

For Mugabe Brown any one who comments which points out his follies is partisan, whether is the pathetic Harringey in the child case or the monopoly money the pound has become because of his economic policies for 11 years. Charles Clarke said he is a bully and Michael White of Guardian says 'Brown does not like any one who disagrees with him'. Just why do we need this imbecile as the PM of a mature democracy?

David L and Chris Paul: you would be last soldiers battling for bottler Brown who has ruined our economy. Weak pound does nothin of the kind, if the Labour supporters think will restore manufacturing. It is not mere weak Pound in a normal time. It is a weak pound in a recession and there are other countries with strong manufacturing base to compete. Where Britain would export? The American manufacturing will be supported by Obama, so will be German and French. Mere cheap Pound does not help. By the time manufacturing is restored to a level, it will take years to do it, Brown will be consigned to history. The trade unions, the Labour funding bosses are not going to keep quiet and they will become militant.

Hence I agree with the argument that 'Boom and Bust' Brown will o to the country next year. Otherwise, he has to return to Salmond Scotand!

Anonymous said...

Osborne in trouble and miss greening rides to the resue.Who she?

Gooey Blob said...

Gordon Brown and his friends are trying to present him as the saviour of the world, the man to whom other world leaders are turning in their hour of need. Yet I've been reading a fascinating article in the Washington Post about the G20 meeting. The countries in attendance and their world leaders are mentioned in the piece, but there is one very notable exception: Gordon Brown. The article runs to 2 pages, yet the man who claims to be running the show and leading by example isn't mentioned once when practically everyone else is.

Gasp - shock - horror! Gordon isn't the revered economic guru he tells us he is.

The article, for anyone who is interested, is here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/15/AR2008111500902.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008111500904&s_pos=

norman said...

JP,

I agree with you that the Labour trolls and fellow travellers here think that it is all like 1970s. But unlike in 1970s when North Sea oil started coming and in 1980s when it was in full swing, we are now a net importer of energy now which is priced in Dollars, strong Dollars. Any advantage the weak Pound will be offset by the cost of importing expensive energy.

I also agree with you that work will not come to Britain as there are other countries with engineering talent and manufacturing bases (China and India) whose currencies are more attractive than British Pound even at a parity level with Dollar.

Britain will take atleast a decade to build good manufacturing base. These Labour supporters forget that these days designs of machine parts etc.. can be carried out just about anywhere on computers with software packages and goods manufactured just above anywhere once the parts are designed. I have here a bad news for Labour trolls. Britain has lost its design potential in relation to manufacturing and if there are any skills left it rests with the immigrants who have engineering degrees (In Britain, engineering is a dirty word and engineering courses have all but disappeared in British universities) and will leave Britain in a weak pound situation as they regularly send money home.
They forget that British manufacturing companies get engineers from Europe and around the world as we cannot supply engineers in numbers and with skills these companies need. If manufacturin base starts picking up we may have get more enineers but with depressed Pound why should they come to Britain?

norman said...

Gooey blob,

Please see my comment at norman 1.53.
What you say confirms what my American friend' son a economics reporter in a major American network channel said to me today. Despite the combined eforts of Nick Robinson+
Guardian + Labour, Brown is igored there. It is a situation as I said similar to Brown's visit to USA when Pope Benedit was also visitin. Brown was left furlorn for a few days and his appearance in Good Mornin America was very brief and no one noticed him as Pope Benedict was the story then. Now it appears that other world leaders of Japan, Chins, Germany, france and even India are noticed
and not our economic genius Brown!

But deluded Brown will come back home trumptettin how the G20 listened to his words of economic wisdom!!

cityman said...

Osborne is half right. But he misses the point that the recent fall in sterling has been the result of a massive flight of capital out of UK debt, Government and corporate. So the real danger is of a "Gilts strike". We had one in the 70's and it was what led Callaghan and Healey to go the IMF, which was the last thing they wanted to do.

That is the real danger from Brown's appalling record. The IMF programme would truly make the pips squeak, mainly in the bloated public sector.

cityman said...

Oh, and I meant to say that the convention that the oppo didn't talk down sterling was true when the exchange was fixed. Maybe Gordo hasn't noticed that it no floats.

Anonymous said...

What ALL opposition parties need to learn - Gordon Brown only does politics.

He is an economic illiterate - a complete imbecile. ALL the importnat decisions he has ever made had nothing to do with economics but EVERYTHING to do with politics.

For instance

Independence for the Bank fo England - Meaning - Let them take the flak for higher interest rates (we'll take the plaudits when they fall). They can also take the shitstorm when the economy goes south 'cos they got interest rates wrong.

Keeping to the Tory spending plans when first elected (by the way, the ONLY decision that made sense) - Meaning - Up until the next election you can blame the Tories for everything.

10p tax band abolition - Meaning - I can cut the basic rate by 2p and the morons will never notice, they're just too thick. Well, he was very nearly right there!

Brown will go down in the history books unlike any other politician any of us have ever known.

A traitor.

John Smith said...

Did you hear Will Hutton on Radio 4 this AM? Firsly he admitted there is plainy a run on the pound - it's there for everyone to see. He also quoted a Mellon Bank of New York report that said 75% of the foreign capital that came into Britain in the last 4 years was taken back out in September October. Is this true?

cityman said...

John Smith, yes it is true as in it is their opinion. But BONY Mellon are one of the largest custodians so they can have a good view of a large chunk of funds flows round the world. Their piece was not "aimed" at the Uk, they compared their view of funds flows for all major currencies. If I can find it I will post the link

Lola said...

Martin Chris Paul etc etc. You are self deluded. The facts do not gibe with your statements.

Brown has swelled the money supply since 1997 by 10% p.a. compound. This means that there are now 235% more Pounds in circulation for the same (real terms) GDP. Next he is now borrowing - internationally on a scale unknown in peace time. Foreigners want a high return to compensate for the decline in Sterling against there own currencies. Their currencies are holding up preceisely because they have done the opposite to Brown.

The exception is the Eurozone. It is also doomed, it's just that they don't know it yet.

Lastly it is quite possible for a 'small country' currency to survive speculative attack - if it is run as sound currency. Brown has run an entirely unsound money policy. QED we're screwed.

Lola said...

anon 7.31 posted - "Brown will go down in the history books unlike any other politician any of us have ever known."

Unless he gets to write those history books.....

cityman said...

here is the link, if it works, I am off to supper with three women GP's so i should be OK

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/856f40c6-b02e-11dd-a795-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

norman said...

The Times reports that Brown is going cap in hand to Saudis for investments in engineering industry.. When Alex Salmond tried to do this for investment in Scotland, Brown ridiculed him.

The PM who wanted Arab Shiekhs to have a slice of the land was Australian PM Gough Whitlam. Whitlam asked for a huge loan which may look different case. But
the message is the same. Our economy is in big trouble.

A brave Governor General dismissed him for incompetence. We have not reached that Australian state et, we might in the Spring. The Queen has a precedence in CommonWealth.

Anonymous said...

Mervyn King is the main agent in a conspiracy to devalue the pound, he has made a number of highly negative statements at critical points in the last few weeks. Not sure why the government are doing this - something to do with rescuing the dollar? I suspect the US is involved in this and in particular it is obviously critical to protecting the banks. Osborne speaking out on it in this naive way can't be helpful but does highlight the state of confusion in Tory high circles.

OK, well, that was one interpretation.

Another is that King, Brown and Darling are prats.

I suspect the latter theory may in fact be the correct one.

African Mum said...

I wonder why anyone who states the obvious about Osbourne is dismissed as a Labour troll. Surely, Labour would want him in post as he makes Brown appear competent.
I think he should've condemned Brown's economic policies without suggesting sterling could collapse. Confidence in sterling is already low and this statement doesn't help. Cameron would show great leadership if he refuses to hang on to someone who doesn't help electorally just because they're friends.

Anonymous said...

I do hope Cameron gies his full support to Osborne on this. If he gives in to New Labour/BBC claims that there is a covention that such criticisms by HM Opposition are a "no go" then Tories will look increasingly stupid.

The pound is in freefall cos of funamdnetals, not because GO wrote this article.

David Lindsay said...

"Hahahaha.... that's so 1970's"

What isn't these days, John Pickworth?

In fact, even then, then was no nationalisation of BANKS.

David Lindsay said...

Oh, and John, the whole of the financial services sector, never mind the City alone, still accounts for less than half the GDP that manufacturing does.

As for imports from sweatshops, we should do as the Americans have done, and indentify and elect economically patriotic candidates. Protectionists, if you will.

will said...

情趣用品,情趣,情色,成人,A片,自拍,情趣用品,情趣,色情,成人影片,色情影片,免費A片,情趣用品,情趣,成人網站,A片下載,日本AV,做愛,情趣用品,情趣,美女交友,A片,辣妹視訊,情色視訊,情趣用品,情趣,色情聊天室,聊天室,AV,成人電影,A片,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣商品,情趣,情趣

情色,A片,AIO,AV,日本AV,色情A片,AV女優,A漫,免費A片,A片下載,情色A片,哈啦聊天室,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,色情聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,080視訊聊天室,080聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,免費視訊聊天,上班族聊天室,080中部人聊天室,視訊聊天室,視訊聊天,成人聊天室,一夜情聊天室,辣妹視訊,情色視訊,成人,成人影片,成人光碟,成人影城,自拍

情趣用品,A片,AIO,AV,AV女優,A漫,免費A片,日本AV,寄情築園小遊戲,情色貼圖,色情小說,情色文學,色情,色情遊戲,一葉情貼圖片區,色情網站,色情影片,微風成人, 嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,18成人,成人影城,成人圖片,成人影片,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,080聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,080視訊聊天室,視訊聊天室

情趣用品,A片,aio,av,av女優,a漫,免費a片,aio交友愛情館,a片免費看,a片下載,本土自拍,自拍,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情小說,情色文學,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,色情遊戲,嘟嘟情人色網,一葉情貼圖片區,色情影片,情色網,色情網站,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,18成人,成人影城,成人圖片,成人貼圖,成人圖片區,成人小說,成人電影

情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,自拍,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,哈啦聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,080聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,H漫,A片,AV,AV女優,A漫,免費A片,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情小說,情色小說,情色文學,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,色情遊戲,SEX,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,18成人,成人影城,成人圖片,成人貼圖,成人圖片區

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣商品