On competence, who do you most trust to deal with Britain’s economic problems, the Cameron/George Osborne team has been static since the spring on 38 per cent, against 31 per cent for Brown and Alistair Darling. The number saying neither or don’t know has more than doubled to 29 per cent since a year ago. This suggests a degree of uncertainty about whether either of the main parties’ teams can deal with current economic troubles.
Mr Brown scores well on experience, at 77 per cent against 11 per cent for Mr Cameron. But the Tory leader is ahead on good judgement, by 40 to 36 per cent, on representing change by 60 to 22 per cent, and on character by 50 to 32 per cent. Nearly everyone, 97 per cent, say good judgement is a very important attribute in a Prime Minister, while 88 per cent say experience, and virtually the same number change and character.
The change card looks a winner for the Tories. Some 65 per cent say it is time for a change (up 11 points since September last year), while 30 per cent say it is better to stick with the devil you know ( minus 13 points).
And that, Ladies & Gentlemen is the most important statistic in this poll. It's why I still believe that Gordon Brown and Labour reached a tipping point sometime in the last three months. It's possible they can recover from this situation. But then it's also possible that West Ham will win the Premier League this year...
25 comments:
If I had to choose between the two, I'd feel a lot safer backing West Ham.
Perhaps West Ham should embark on a reverse take over of Iceland
The time for a change syndrome is a difficult one, and probably means the situation is more fluid than it seems.
As we near the GE, voters may become nervous, 'And cling too nurse for fear of worse'
That 15% may not be as concrete as it looks.
It is pretty concrete. If you take our share of the vote in the locals and then look at the polls since 15% is a sensible figure.
Bad example, Mike. West Ham have never won the Premiership. Labour have won the last 3 elections. With Mandelson on board, the Labour party is back in business. The present Tory front bench have never faced him, remember. He's already got the Tories wondering what Osborne told him over dinner - no matter whether he said anything at all. We all know Mandy would have slagged of GB, but that's old news. Watch out for Osborne-Cameron split stories in the weeks ahead. Gordon's just bought those for the price of a peerage. Buy Labour.
Anonymous is doing his best to keep up labour hopes and sow confusion elsewhere.
Bless.
Maybe someone more sensible can tell me just where the government is going to borrow the £50+ billion from that it is using to buy into the banks, because the banks themselves cannot find anyone to lend them the money they need?
There seem to be nation states everywhere conjuring up zillions from somewhere to shovel onto banks because the banks themselves cannot find money of their own.
Someone somewhere is the odd trillion short - just what happens exactly when the music stops in this crazy game of musical chairs.
Well, Mandleson hasn't given anyone a rise, so press on and try Blunkett, then Prescott. Is Kinnock up for it?
The age of austerity looms. Where is Sir Stifford Crapps when we need him?
"With Mandelson on board, the Labour party is back in business."
I don't even know what that means. The business of being deceptive, lying, sleazy little turds, I assume.
You might be right and you might be wrong. If things get drastically worse then people will either say; change is the best way to get out of this or they will say hang about now is not really the time to rock the boat...
It's all very well saying you want a change in the abstract in a poll...of course people do because times are tough but i'd be very careful assuming this will naturally give you a thumping majority...Brown played a canny card in his conference speech and it shows to me he's at least found a semi-decent chord to strike...what you might find is he's able to claw back at least enough to make a Conservative victory less resounding....
Labour have ruined this country, the obsession with spin, the lies, the deciet, the waste of taxpayer money, the sleaze and duplicity all ad up for one hell of a reason to Kick Labour out.
Labour are doomed - DOOMED at the next election, there is no way back - Labour and Gordon Brown let a credit boom in the UK get out of control and they fail to admit the mistake. They cannot claim 10 years of success and then avoid blaime for the failure.
Labour need to be despatched at the next election and the Liberal Democrats should be sent home in a yellow taxi! Nick Clegg is dragging the LD's down faster in the polls than a lead weight. Nick Clegg;s leadership is as useful as a speed boat in the middle of an arid dry desert!
It seems to be working for Obama, who is definitely more palatable than lipstick Lucy and McCain who looks as though he might croak at any minute. Palin is extremely scary.
Of course, Obama is the "novice" but the Americans don't seem to bothered about this - they know its time for a change as the Republicans have got too entrenched.
The argument that some trolls put forward that conservatives favour the republicans is simply out of date.
Palin is extremely scary? How exactly, what specifically has frightened you, dear.
Or is just another male who can't cope with strong women? Hmmmm
Thank God the imbeciles who think Brown is best placed to clean up the mess he made won't prevail. The Tories shouldn't join Labour and the media in talking about just one issue. They should remind people that Labour created this mess; that Mandelson is still a vile creature regurgitated by Satan from the depths of hell; that crime is still rampant; that the NHS is still upside down and that Labour's attitude to the elderly still stinks. Among many other issues. They should also ask why Labour is delighting in the crisis by claiming political advantage. And what connection does Brown have to hedge funds that landed us in this mess?
On the global financial crisis, are the banks failing or are they being attacked? Why the rumours and short selling to deliberately destabilise banks? Who is funding who? Not all terrorists fly planes into buildings, IMHO.
Obama won the debate last night - again. Iain, are you still backing those hate mongers McCain/Palin?
Get ready for President Obama! Can't wait. The future is looking brighter.
:)
The argument for change is only going to take the Tories so far. As the election approaches people will start to put the Tory party under far more scrutiny than they have up until now. People will not only be asking "do we want to keep Labour?" they will also be asking "do we want the Tories?" If you look at the recent local election results, the Tories have done well where they have been able to campaign as a protest vote against us, but in areas where they are fighting the Lib Dems, they have failed miserably. This is because very few people are supporting the Tories in a positive way. They are saying they will vote Tory to opinion pollsters because they recognise this as the most effective way of protesting against Labour.
In fact, with older hands such as Michael Heseltine and Kenneth Clarke doing all the talking for the Tories on shows such as Question Time and Newsnight, most people probably do not know who members of the shadow cabinet are. Similarly most members of the public are unsure of current Tory party policies. If I were involved in the Tory campaign I would be worried about these things. The public are fickle and once they do take notice of the Tory shadow cabinet and Tory policies they could quickly decide they don't like them. The closer this is to the election, the less time the Tories will have to deal with it.
Tories up two. Labour up three. So, basically what we can read from this poll is that the Lib Dems are completely buggered.
Interesting, isn't it, how the BBC/C4 trot out the same spokesmen time and again? Heseltine, Hutton (Will), Toynbee, Clarke (last night's Newsnight)?
I'm aware at first hand that when they go for opinions to the newer intake of MPs, for instance, if it isn't the message the media want to hear, they simply don't use the interview.
Philip Hammond apparently gave Yvette Cooper a right bashing in the Commons yesterday over the financial crisis - did anyone see that mentioned in the last news last night? I didn't.
I'm a Conservative Party activist - none of us assume we are going to win a 'thumping' majority. Simply because we believe this is a disastrous Government doesn't mean that others feel the same way.
Finally, for all those who whinge about Cameron not coming up with policies: check your political history. In 1995, Tony Blair said it would be crazy for Labour to go into detailed policies 18mths before an election. Major's Government lost the following GE big time, and the electorate wanted a change to something new and fresh. They'd already done the 'holding on to nurse' bit in '92.
I'm not sure West Ham will even be in the premier league soon. They have to find £30m to pay off Sheffield Utd. Where will they get it from? Not their Icelandic owners that's for sure. Relegation, points deduction all loom large for the Hammers.
I wouldn't trust any poll right now because any reflection on Labour polling 30% , or even 20% must be wrong, judging by the mood on the streets. I live in a staunch labour area and they are due to be truly decimated even here.
I think West Ham should lend themselves to Man Utd, for a fee, then Man Utd should sell them for six months, buy them back (much cheaper then obviously) and give them back to West Ham.
Everyone's winner. Capitalism rocks!
roamn said..
'Simply because we believe this is a disastrous Government doesn't mean that others feel the same way...'
Oh, Roman, they will, they will.
When this 'financial' crisis hits main street, it is going to be carnage, absolute carnage. Massive rises in unemploymnet, massive increases in repossessions (by Government owned entitiies!), many, many people sleeping on the streets (possibly whole families) and a huge reduction in wages.
Nu Labour will take the can for this - eventually.
The Conservative Party has tended to bull itself up over the last 12 Months over the polls. Good for them.
We all know it will be neck and neck a few weeks before a date in 2010 and there will be nothing new in this.
Dave was the most disliked Tory leader of all time a year ago but when the polls went up to 678% lead (all Tory papers)suddenly internal criticism melted away.
Dave was the new Dalai Lama.
Politicis will always win and crunch questions and policies will be the answer to all questions.
Where is Gideon as Alastair spends spends spends?
Gary
Hardly surprising that on "representing change" the opposition should be ahead of the government. Interesting that on "character" Cameron is significantly ahead since he had previously been thought a bit lightweight.
Neil Craig, Cameron will eventually go back to being thought a lightweight. There is no other way to regard someone who has been given every advantage in life and yet still achieved shockingly little. Apart from his spell as a P.R man for Carlton or some such company, his only jobs have been provided by the Conservative Party which is hardly real world experience. There has never been a time in British history where someone of such little substance has been in contention to be Prime Minister. Agree or disagree with Gordon Brown's policies, he has been a big political figure since Cameron was still at college.
Post a Comment