I have for some time been expecting Al Gore to endorse Barack Obama before Super Tuesday. So far he hasn't done so. There is little love lost between him and the Clintons and an endorsement for Obama will be timed to do maximum damage to Hillary. I'd have thought that today would be a good day to do that. So if Gore did endorse Obama, what effect would it have?The first would be to dominate the news agenda - another good reason for him to do it today. Beyond that, its effect may not be as massive as some think. While it would certainly help Obama in California, where he still trails Hillary Clinton, his appeal is in large part to younger voters, who are signing up to Obama anyway. My point is that Gore coming out for Obama is a bit like Norman Tebbit coming out for Margaret Thatcher. It's predictable and wouldn't do a huge amount for his overall support.
The one thing it would do is make me less likely to support Obama. Although Ted Kennedy achieved that the other day!
The other big endorsement for the two Democratic candidates to chase is that of John Edwards. The pundits in Washington seem split over which way he is likely to jump. Both candidates are courting him and lacing their speeches with complimentary comments about him. Again, if he were endorse Obama today, it would further add to the 'big mo' which he is coasting with.
24 comments:
Iain - Gore, for the past four years, has been positioning himself as the compromise candidate and is living in hope of being drafted in when the party finally figures out that Hillary and Obama are splitting the party dangerously.
Gore is going to sit in his little bubble of self-righteous "caring" for the world, polishing up his Nobel Prize and wait for the phone to ring.
Are Edwards or Gore Veep possibilties for Hillary or Obama?
I'm not sure that endorsement by Gore would necessarily be a real boost to the Obama campaign - he is, after all, the man who has for the past eight years or so made a career out of climate change, based at best on some pretty dodgy science and at worst by deceptively selective quotation of facts and figues in his panygeric 'An Inconvenient Truth'. Depends what you mean by 'truth', I suppose. And in any case, he is the past, his time has come and gone: he made a reasonable fist of the non-job of VP but never was a candidate for President whom you could take seriously.
If Edwards endorses Obama he can deliver some much-needed delegates; but my suspicion is that he is going to sit it out and hope to be king (or queen) maker at the Convention in the summer if Clinton and Obama are deadlocked still at that stage.
That notion about Gore is, without question, the most naive, politically illiterate thought I have read during this entire campaign. It beggars belief.
The Goracle aks Goron is too busy making millions selling carbon credits to himself and spreading his nonsense.
For Paddy, I can't believe Gore would want to be VP again especially for the Hildebeeste, they don't like each other to put it politely.
Similarly, why would anyone want Edwards as VP ? Failed candidate in 2007, 2004 and a failed one-term senator.
There is no way Gore would be VP again. No one goes back to the same position. He has found much greater freedom of expression on his own. And for that reason and his political skill he knows he can never be elected president.
It might sound nice and dandy to consider drafting someone as the nominee but in reality it is an archaic irrelevance. Only someone with the stature of Eisenhower (in 52) was able to join the race after winning the New Hampshire primary when people wrote his name on the ballot papers themselves (a write-in candidate).
Anonymous, he doesn't want "much greater freedom of expression". He wants to be president and he believes it is in the natural order of things that this will come about.
Of course, he could agree to be Hillary's vice president and then, once she's elected, shoot her. But that is even messier than hanging chads.
I'd be surprised if he does back Obama, I had him down as a true Third-Way Clintonite.
Well, folks, don't forget his endorsement of Howard Dean in '04 -- which didn't exactly improve his status within the Democratic Party. Sure didn't do Dean much good either getting the blessing of the man who had the election stolen from him by Chimpy McBushitler.
Look at it this way:
1) As others have pointed out, a Gore endorsement could be of no net benefit to Obama, if not actively harmful.
2) It would inevitably be reported as a negative -- the final f.u. in the dysfunctional political partnership of Billary and Al. Does Obama really need to get sucked into the very psychodrama he's been painting himself as a decisive break from?
3) If Super Size Me Tuesday doesn't hand either Obama or Clinton a decisive edge, Saint Al of Gore, Nobel laureate, could have quite a lot of pull in a brokered convention. That is FUBAR the moment he issues an endorsement.
Gore looks like has eaten too much of the planet.
Big V., or he could just convince her to visit the Arctic and leave her stranded on a melting ice floe with a hungry polar bear.
Troll Patrol, Here is something important for you to get your mind round:
My blog name is Verity. You are not free to alter it according to your overheated imagination. You address me as "Verity" or "Hey you" - but do not have the impudence to fashion a new blog name for me.
Get over yourself BigV
Big V - We live in a free world (at least in virtual space). I can say what I effin well like my love. Get over it. (and that wasnt me anon 8:15pm). You obviously perform a role on this website as the "sacrificial anode" (scientific term - look it up). Since you are not living in these isles you probably don't know that David Attenborough's "Life in Cold Blood" starts tonight on BBC2. I look forward to him digging you out of a hole somewhere.
Troll Patrol - this is a blog, not an abuse forum. IIRC, you were banned once before and had to change your blog name.
This is Iain Dale's Diary, not The Samaritans. No one here is interested in your personal problems.
We are here to discuss politics. Take your personal isues elsewhere.
I clicked Send before I ticked a name, and it went anyway. How odd.
anon 8:53pm.
Who cares what you think since you hide behind "Anon". Am happy to be slagged off by anyone who spends 5 secs thinking up a name.
anon - I have never been banned (as far as I know) nor I have ever changed my name. Iain to confirm. Think you must think I was someone else. Get o'er it love.
personally i think teepee is okay -someone has to go toe2toe with the big v.
Go Teepee! Though personally I've got a score on Big V to handbag him in the third.
Iain, why would you support Obama anyway. I though you were a Conservative!
I dislike the religious nutters on the right of the Republicans as much as you do, but supporting a candiate who is essemtially a lib dem.....
Get behind McCain. At least he is a conservative, even if he is a semi-detatched republican!
Adrian:
Well, you've unintentionally raised a damn good question: Who says the GOP is a conservative party -- and opposed to a pack of theocratic Nanny statists --, anymore? Obama and McCain sure strikes me as less likely to oversee another radical expansion of the federal government, more erosion of ancient liberties, and confusion about whether they swore to uphold and defend the Constitution or the Bible, that Mitt The Panderer-in-Chief or the Huckster.
All the Democrats are more conservative than Cameroon.
Verity - I had to think about why you claimed I had been banned and eventually decided you noticed my prolonged absence in December from this blog. Wasn't banned, just lying on a beach in the sun somewhere south of the equator for 5 weeks. Didn't think anyone would notice or care. Next time I'll remember to log on occasionally just so you don't feel ignored. I am touched that you missed me, the Samaritans will be pleased I have connected with another human being and freed up their phone lines.
V, this isn't your blog to be telling people what they can or cannot post. It's owned by one Iain Dale (the clue is in the title). Argue, disagree or even abuse but feel free to exercise your democratic right to ignore anyone you feel is irrelevant or annoying. It's the Tory way.
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