Talk of an October election has been bounding around for some time now; with Brown riding high in the polls, Cameron being hit by blow after blow, and Ming Campbell simply hobbling down the path of political oblivion at an ever more depressing (for the LibDems at least) rate. But then came Northern Rock.
Between Friday and Monday Northern Rock was witness to more than half its value being wiped out. By the close of trading yesterday
All told things did not look good for the economy, and more specifically the government; the corollary of which meant a much reduced likelihood of an October election… but has that changed?
Since the start of trading this morning Northern Rock has seen its share price jump 8%, and
So if you were Gordon, would the events of the past few days have made you more uncertain than you already were about an October election? Would the possibility of further turmoil in the weeks before a polling in October stop you in your tracks? Or would you look at the position of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats and take the plunge, knowing that things can only get better for them as time progresses?
My inkling is that the situation with Northern Rock has actually served to solidify Brown’s already very strong position by ‘reminding’ voters that he’s a man who can be trusted in a crisis, and if anything has actually made an October election more rather than less likely.
To return to the earlier question if you were Gordon, how would you read the situation? Would you take the plunge? Over to you…