Everything in my gut tells me that an election will be called next week. There will be another couple of opinion polls in the next few days which will probably confirm a 5-8 point Labour lead.
Just do what I have done and draw a line down the middle of a piece of paper and write down the arguments for an against an autumn election from Gordon Brown's perspective. You won't find many in the 'against' column. Brown has written a book called COURAGE. If he fails to call an election soon - and the media momentum is gathering - he'll be accused of flunking it. Most other pundits and commentators still reckon that's exactly what he will do. I don't. I always thought an autumn election was possible. I now think it's probable. Indeed, I would go so far as to predict that he might even call it next Thursday, just to bugger the Conservative conference. It's just the sort of thing Brown would take great pleasure from.