Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Adrian Starts to Dig the LibDems' Grave

So the defections have begun. Adrian Graves, the LibDem candidate for West Suffolk in 1997 and 2005 has joined the Conservatives and is urging others to follow him. He said he was switching sides because there had been "a fundamental shift in both the direction and political atmosphere" with the Conservatives under David Cameron's leadership. Mr Graves told the Today programme that the Conservatives were the only "real potential realistic achievable alternative for regime change at the next election". "The majority of British people recognise that a fourth term of a Labour administration, a weaker one, potentially shored up by perhaps a Simon Hughes-led group of Lib Dems is the nightmare scenario," he said. He said he had respect for Mr Hughes but he was perceived as "left of centre". The former candidate claimed that up to three Lib Dem MPs could join him in defecting, and greater numbers of ordinary members. " There is a discussion around Westminster at the moment that there may be up to three MPs considering their position, and I would understand that," he said. But a Lib Dem spokesman said: "Mr Graves was an unsuccessful candidate at the last general election. If Mr Graves truly believes in civil liberties, in the environment, and in social justice he will be sadly disappointed by the Conservative Party."

Footnote: An ICM opinion poll in The Guardian - carried out before Mark Oaten pulled out - suggested Simon Hughes was the top choice to lead the party among ordinary voters, polling 51% to Sir Menzies' 29% and Mr Huhne's 20%. The poll put Mr Hughes even further ahead among Lib Dem voters, on 62%, with Mr Huhne on 20% and Sir Menzies pushed into third place on 18%. That seems very strange and will send a few shudders down the spine of the exulted Lord Rennard.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is this really the beginning of defections or just a random isolated occurances? Seems too early to tell if you ask me...

Leon

http://leongreen.wordpress.com/

Iain Dale said...

Leon, you are of course right, but there is a lot of chatter about this now and I would not be at all surprised if there were one or two bigger names who defected in the courseof the next few months. The LibDems will try to play down the importance of Mr Graves but I understand he was a senior player in eastern region LibDems.

Anonymous said...

Fair point, although I'm not sure we'll see a sudden rush of defections, more a few spread out over the next few months (of course this might change if you guys get the massive wins I've been hearing is likely!).

Anonymous said...

Fingers crossed for David Laws... maybe Vince Cable and Ed Davey as well?

Peter Black said...

It is indicative of the paucity of talent in the Tory Party that you continue to have wet dreams about defections that are not going to happen.

Iain Dale said...

Peter, we'll see. But if I'd said last week that one of your PPCs was about to defect you'd have rubbished that too, wouldn't you? If I were you'd keep quiet at the moment. And I can assure you that dreams about LibDems have never cuased me to become moist, in any way whatsoever!

Paul Linford said...

There is some logic to some the current flurry of excitement about potential Lib Dem defections (as opposed to defecations) in that a considerable gulf does exist between the views of the majority of Lib Dem MPs and the views of the majority of Lib Dem activists - exactly the scenario that faced Labour in the early 1980s and which helped precipitate the SDP breakaway.

That said, I can't really see any of the individuals most frequently mentioned in this context actually defecting. Clegg? He will be party leader by 2012, whoever wins the current battle. Laws? Possible, but as one of Paddy's proteges he has fairly deep roots in the party. Oaten? Well, enough said.

I think they'll at least hang around to see what the next election brings. If it brings us a hung Parliament, Messrs Laws, Clegg and Cable might well end up sitting in Cameron's Cabinet anyway without having to go through all the hassle that joining his party would inevitably bring.

Anonymous said...

He looks like Fabricant with specs!

Anonymous said...

Graves is so well known in the Eastern Region that a colleague of mine at work, a LibDem member, knew who he was and the positions he has held.

Don't under-estimate the role of senior activists.

Anonymous said...

Have been a Lib Dem activist for several years and know a lot of people nationally; I have never heard of Adrian Graves before today.