The Daley Dozen: Thursday

1. Tracey Crouch highlights the Kent Labour MPs who voted for post office closures. Yes, that's you Jonathan Shaw and Gwyn Prosser.
2. Gavin's Gaily Gigest is not amused at the LibDems being "ripped off" by Henley Management College.
3. LibDem Voice asks if Labour has gone beyond the point of no return.
4. Ben Brogan asks the same, and praises the Tories for their return to iron discipline.
5. City Unslicker fisks the Brown National Security Strategy and finds it wanting.
6. Peter Diapre from Sky News speculates on Prime Minister Balls. No, really.
7. Conor Ryan asks if classes of 70 are ever acceptable.
8. Richard Spring MP finds it 'jolly blogging weather'.
9. NHS Blog Doctor on the finest political speech he has ever heard.
10. Patrick Hennnessy's Top Tory Toe-curling Moments.
11. Brassneck on new plans to reform the House of Lords.
12. Kiwiblog on Green plans to close businesses for the day. It could happen here.

Must Blogging Politicians Lose Their Sense of Humour?

Oh, for goodness sake. Read THIS report on a LibDem MP who seems to have had a complete sense of humour by-pass. Glyn Davies (Lembit Opik's Tory opponent) posts his retort HERE.

Sarkozy to Divorce Carla Bruni After Two Week Marriage

Gordon Brown: Bottom line is, we're around each other an' this thing, it grabs hold of us again at the wrong place, at the wrong time, and we're dead.

Nicolas Sarkozy: Si seulement je savais comment finir avec toi...

(with apologies to Brokeback Mountain)

Advertising a Cleaner Kent

Clean Kent appears, on the face of it, to be an excellent initiative by the County Council, twelve district councils and various other Kent based organisations. Its aim is to reduce litter, graffiti and flytipping throughout the County. So far so good. But every night when I get home to Tonbridge Station I walk by a giant billboard poster in the car park (see above) which tells me that John & Ollie are my local heroes, keeping Kent clean. I'm delighted that John and Ollie are keeping Kent clean. I pay a lot of Council Tax to help them do just that. What I do not wish to pay Council Tax for is to fund expensive billboard advertising campaigns on a completely meaningless statement. These billboards normally cost upwards of £700 a month and from the Cleaner Kent website it's quite clear that the billboards are being paid for all over the County. I've no idea how much this advertising campaign is costing, but whether it's £750 or £75,000, I'm sure I am not alone in thinking that the money would be better spent keeping the streets clean, rather than telling us that the streets are cleaner.

The Clean Kent website tells us that part of their funding comes from the European Regional Development Fund. Should we be pleased or sigh in frustration at what our money is being used for?

And before anyone says it, I am quite well aware which political party controls most of the councils in Kent.

Did Brown Tell Wen About Dalai Lama Meeting?

Was I alone in thinking that Gordon Brown implied at yesterday's PMQs that when speaking to the Chinese Premier he had told him he would be meeting the Dalai Lama when he comes to London? Later in the day, the Standard downplayed the meeting and said it would not be held in government property, and also that the Chinese were enraged.

Brown's response to Cameron's question appeared to wrongfoot the Tory leader, who had probably planned to press the PM to meet the Dalai Lama. Instead he congratulated the PM for "doing the right thing". Instead of being gracious, Brown retorted: "We always do the right thing". Sadly time does not permit me to list the hundreds of occasions when he has done the wrong thing.

The Daley Dozen: Wednesday

1. And the Screwing the Taxpayer Award goes to...
2. Norfolk Blogger on why Ken is rattled.
3. Ben Brogan thinks John Reid is very very clever.
4. Philip Oppenheim on post office closures, fat cats and Animal Farm.
5. Nadine tells of the Hand of Hope, is then slammed by Bad Science, who says it's a hoax, but he is contradicted by the photographer, Michael Clancy, who took the picture. You pays your money...
6. Fraser Nelson describes the National Security Strategy as "weak".
7. Shane Greer supports the Gurhkas.
8. Red Box on the Stephen Carterisation of the Cabinet.
9. Sky's Niall Paterson makes a passionate defence of the Gurkhas.
10. Cassilis presents his weekly think tank roundup.
11. John Redwood on a house price crash.
12. Kevin Maguire reports on another political reporter leaving the BBC to join the ranks of New Labour.

Labour Accused by DD on Political Advertising

Ben Brogan reports on a letter David Davis letter to the Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell today, complaining about a series of Home Office adverts, supposedly aimed at businesses, which had subliminal party political messages to swing voters on immigration. Strangely, even though the target audience was supposedly businesspeople, the adverts only appeared in the Daily Mail, The Sun, The Mirror and The Star.

Bearing that in mind, read this quote from the Chipmunk (Hazel Blears, for the uninitiated) in tonight's London Evening Standard...

"We have to persuade people in Hastings, Basildon, Harlow and Luton we are firm but fair on immigration, that we understand their apprehensions..."

Now, which papers do many people in those towns read? You're ahead of me. Yet another example of taxpayers' money being used to help the Labour Party.

Hazel Blears in Plain English ... Or Not

In a speech today, Hazel Blears says she wants to involve people in decision-making and local politics. Could she perhaps get her government department to start talking in plain English. A classic example of New Labour jargon and reliance on quangos...

"Under the NEP, regional empowerment consortia are working with Regional Improvement and Efficiency Partnerships, and GOs in each region taking forward the NEP programme. We will set up a series of participatory budgeting "regional learning sets", and we are exploring how this could work alongside and through the NEP's regional consortia (made up of third sector groups working with communities and local authorities to help improve and facilitate empowerment) DCLG, Participatory Budgeting: a draft national strategy, 19 March 2008,p.20."

Brown's 'National Neighbourhood Watch' Plan Announced

My contact in the Ministry of Defence was a relieved man this afternoon after having heard Gordon Brown' statement on a National Security Strategy. In fact, he chortling at a job well done by the MoD. He reckons they saw off the PM's attempt to seize powers from them, and instead what he has set up is a series of talking shops. "Instead of a National Security Strategy, what they've come up with is the New Labour equivalent of a National Neighbourhood Watch Strategy - makes everyone feel good but achieves bugger all."

I was most amused to see that there will now be regional offices of Mi5 in towns around the country. It reminds me of the Los Angeles Counter Terrorism Unit, CTU, in the series '24'. However, the thought of a phone being answered by the words 'CTU Dewsbury', just doesn't have the same ring to it.

Brown's Record is Worse Than Lamont's

Open Europe point out that the Pound has now fallen further under Gordon Brown than it did on Black White Wednesday in 1992. So much for Brown's much heralded 'stability'. What they don't point out is that Gordon Brown's catastrophic sale of our gold reserves at the lowest point in the market has ended up costing the country more than Black Wednesday ever did. And another thing about Black Wednesday, does Brown seriously suggest that it would have been any different under Labour? They were even keener to enter the ERM than Nigel Lawson and Geoffrey Howe, and that's saying something.

More on the LibDem Away Day

In March 2007 the Liberal Democrats had a parliamentary away day at the Henley Management College. The two day seminar, led by Henley's chief executive Chris Bones, was packed with sessions on polling, messaging, the manifesto and, most interestingly, "balanced parliament options". Between 50 and 100 LibDem MPs and Peers attended.

Questions are now being asked at Henley about the level of subsidy they enjoyed, courtesy of the LibDem supporting Chief Executive. Mr Bones has previously been a donor to Ming Campbell's leadership campaign and was appointed in January by Nick Clegg to carry out a root and branch review into the Party's activities and structures. Quite how he finds the time away from his £200k a year job is beyong the ken of many of his colleagues, who are growing uncomfortable with the Centre being used for party political purposes. Henley has been used on four separate occasions (20/21 July 2006, 9/10 November 2006, 8/9 March 2007 and 15/16 June 2007) by senior LibDems for these sort of away days, and on at least one occasion, a commercial client was 'bumped' in their favour, according to a Henley source. This is all the more puzzling considering the Centre's less than brilliant financial position.

Some senior managers at the Centre are also asking if the Centre's governors have approved the involvement of Mr Bones in the Reform Commission, how much time he is devoting to it and whether the Centre is being compensated for his time.

The PowerPoint presentation used in the Henley sessions is a substantial document of 50 pages and fully branded by Henley. So if Bones did this in his private capacity why is it branded ‘Henley’?. As it is branded 'Henley' it seems likely that Henley wish to be associated with it and that the College is claiming ownership of the work.

It is also puzzling that none of this munificence on behalf of Henley has been declared by the LibDems to the Electoral Commission, or by any MP to the Registrar of Members' Interests. It is entirely possible that they paid the full commercial rate, of course, in which case no declaration would be needed.

But of far more interest is the 50 slide Powerpoint presentation given to the assembled LibDems in March 2007, as it gives the lie to their public pronouncements that they have no interest in a coalition. It is also clear that at that time the preference was to ally themselves with Labour - well, according to Mr Bones who was the author of the presentation. In this slide he comes to the conclusion that the next election is 55% likely to be won by Labour, with a 40% chance of no party having an overall majority. Remember, this was done a year ago, four months before Brown took over the Premiership.

And these were the instructions given to those attending on what they should say about the possibility of a hung parliament.

UPDATE: Thursday 4pm: I've had a very nice email from Henley asking me to clarify a few things. I'm happy to do so.

Professor Stephen Lee, Henley Management College's Secretary, reports direct to Henley's Court of Governors and is responsible for the governance of the institution and the protection of the integrity of its charitable status.

Professor Lee can confirm that:

· Henley's Principal, Chris Bones, played no part in any commercial negotiations with the Liberal Democrat party.

· No other client was 'bumped' or had their agreed letting arrangements affected by a commercial letting to the Liberal Democrats in any way.

· Henley Management College's charitable status requires it, when not engaged in primary charitable object activity, to seek always to maximise the resources available to the beneficiaries of the charity. Thus Henley has standard procedures for commercial letting clients that require its staff, in all cases, to confirm to industry procedures designed to assure competitive letting practices. On each occasion Henley dealt with the Liberal Democrat party these procedures have been properly followed.

· On each occasion our negotiation with this particular client has achieved a highly competitive arrangement that more than achieves our requirements as a charitable organisation. In each case the Liberal Democrats, by comparison with our own overall lettings performance and industry norms, paid in excess of our average or mode overall lettings performance. In fact, the Liberal Democrat party was the highest paying customer on each occasion.

· The Principal, like all other members of staff records his holidays and these correlate with the days the reform commission has met. It is clear that he continues to do his volunteering in his own time, not that paid by the College.

· As a globally recognized centre of excellence for thought leadership in management thinking Henley Management College welcomes the use of its facilities by all political parties. Many members of our academic community interface all the time with each of the political parties - this is an active part of their role as academic 'thought leaders' in the area of management education and on key issues of the day facing managers - reputation, risk management, political funding and fundraising, sustainability, customer relationship management etc.

· All College clients are entitled to use College administrative facilities which are, of course, branded Henley. The presentation on your blog was created by attendees on a Henley machine - hence the template and is not the work of Mr Bones or any other member of the Henley staff.

Ken is Obsessed by Boris

Ken Livingstone's campaign launch today proved one thing - that the mayor continues to be obsessed by his opponent. Whatever question he is asked by journalists, he always brings the subject back to Boris. This is an odd strategy for a hackneyed old campaigner like Ken to adopt. Normally in his position you'd expect a candidate to rise above the fray and either ignore his opponent or to swat him away like you would an irritating gnat. Instead, Ken builds Boris up at every opportunity, making idiotic allegations which make him - not Boris - look an idiot. Today's accusation was that Boris would take London back to the 17th century on the basis that he opposes the smoking ban, the minimum wage and is in favour of nuclear power. Astonishing. This is what passes for debate in City Hall.

Livingstone continues to prove that he has nothing positive to say about London. All he can do is throw out ever more outrageous allegations about Boris, none of which chime with the electorate. Meanwhile, Boris's campaign seems to be going from strength to strength. If anyone reading this blog is as sick of Livingstone as I am and would love to see his face when he loses, get in touch with the Boris campaign and offer to help. It's your patriotic duty!

LibDem Voters Prefer(ed) Brown to Cameron

I wish I had more time now, but I have to go and record my weekly joust with Simon Heffer. However, do check back later when I will be sharing with you a leaked powerpoint presentation at a LibDem Shadow Cabinet Away Day from March 2007. It is, shall we say, rather revealing. For all their talk of being not interested in coalitions, this document rather blows the lid off that kind of posturing. I leave you with this slide (above) which shows that LibDem voters prefer the thought of a coalition with Gordon Brown than David Cameron. However, the poll was taken before Brown came to power in early 2007. I wonder what the result would be now....

Interesting also, that the slide was produced by Henley Management College, the venue for the away day. Again, more on that later.

Brown Praises Chinese Premier's "Commitment to Local Democracy"

Rachel Sylvester has an excellent article in the Telegraph today contrasting the differences in approach to foreign policy of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. In essence, she labels Blair a crusader and Brown a plodding pragmatist. Towards the end of the piece she comes out with this corker...

While Blair championed a Gladstonian moralistic approach, Mr Brown prefers the more cautious Palmerstonian attitude. When he returned from China recently, he commented on how impressed he had been by President Hu Jintao's commitment to local democracy.

Tell that to the Dalai Lama and the people of Tibet!!! What an astonishing thing for Brown to say. And wasn't Palmerston the architect of 'gunboat diplomacy'? I'd hardly describe that as cautious.

Great Headlines of Our Time: No 94

Cracking headline in this morning's Sun on a story about a Collie dog being given Viagra. The headline ran...

GIVE A DOG A BONER

Another Day, Another LibDem Defection...

This time in the LibDem held seat of Westmorland... More HERE.

The Daley Dozen: Monday

1. A happy birthday to Labour MP Paul Flynn's blog.
2. Adam Boulton & Jon Craig disagree about Gordon & Peter's vow of silence.
3. UK Polling Report shows why Boris is a happy boy tonight.
4. Richard Booth explains why Liverpool Council represents the Nanny State gone mad.
5. Red Box on the Labour Candidate who reckons he is Britain's Obama.
6. Stumbling & Mumbling on how gayers are good for house prices.
7. The Newsnight Big Fat Politics Blog on how Michael Gove is educating Dave.
8. Conor Ryan on what Iraqis think five years on.
9. Cicero's Songs asks if the LibDems are closed to the Tories or Labour.
10. Richard Spring MP on the John Lewis list
11. Norfolk Blogger doesn't like Heather Mills. He's in good company.
12. Daniel Finkelstein has some home truths for Tories on tax.

A Conservative/SNP Pact in Westminster is no Longer a Fantasy

Alex Salmond is fast developing a reputation as a political colossus. North of the border he's single-handedly masterminded the defeat of the Labour Party and rubbed their noses into the dirt. The Scottish Labour Party is in turmoil. They have a leader whose popularity (if that's the right word) is 75 points behind Alex Salmond, and after nearly a year in power, the SNP is becoming more popular by the month. Yesterday's MRUK Cello poll for the Scottish Sunday Times showed the SNP with a healthy 8 point lead over Labour and six points up on the previous poll. If the Scottish elections were re-run now the SNP would be on 57 seats and Labour on 44.

The SNP has now extracted from the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times (the one showing the Tories 16 points ahead) data which shows that for a Westminster election the SNP is 7 points ahead of Labour and 19 points up on the 2005 General Election. This would give them 27 seats and give Labour a heart attack. It would also mean that the SNP become key players in a hung Parliament, giving the Conservatives a second option for coalition partners.

This would have been unthinkable even a year ago, yet in Scotland there is a growing respect between the SNP and the Conservatives, and this is being reflected in Westminster too. There is growing friendly banter between leading Tories and the SNP's small but perfectly formed band of Westminster MPs.

The SNP no longer regards the Tories as the devil incarnate, but any formal coalition is currently still an impossibility under the SNP constitution, I believe. Certain elements of the SNP believe this to be outdated, but a formal move to amend the constitution would be highly unlikely.

So what short term implications does all this have? Firstly, Labour will make no headway north of the border unless the hapless Wendy Alexander is ditched. Secondly, Gordon Brown's refusal to 'do business' with Alex Salmond is playing right into the SNP's hands. They have become the voice of sweet reason, while Brown looks bitter and twisted. No change there then.

If there were shares in Alex Salmond you'd be buying them now. As a Labour MP said to me today: "There's only one way to stop Alec Salmond in his tracks and that's assassination". He was joking. I think.

Non Poll Evidence of the Tory Surge

Further to the poll figures in the post below, I just had a very interesting conversation with a friend who's a candidate in a marginal seat. Last week he sent out 18,000 survey forms to the voters in his constituency. Today he had the first 250 returned. On the voting intention, there were thirty-eight people who have changes their parties since the last election. One went from Tory to Labour (on the basis the Tories weren't right wing enough!), two from LibDem to Tory. But my friend's heart was gladdened when he read through the surveys of the THIRTY FIVE people (out of 250) who said they were switching from Labour to Tory.

Yes, it's all anecdotal, and comes with all the usual health warnings, but perhaps something is now happening which none of us have quite cottoned onto yet.

Another Double Digit Tory Lead

Even I was slightly sceptical about yesterday's YouGov poll, which gave the Conservatives a 16 point lead. However, tomorrow's ICM poll for the Guardian shows a 13 point lead, with the Tories on 42% (up 5), Labour on 29% (down 5) and the LibDems on 21%. So the Tory lead seems to have come entirely from Labour switchers. These are the people the Tories really need to attract in the key marginals. In the past, whenever the Tories have built up a good lead, it has been eroded over the ensuing few months. Let's see if this time the party can develop a strategy to keep the switchers - and keep them for good.

Brown Loses Key Number Ten Aide

The Telegraph's political editor Andrew Porter has broken the news on THREE LINE WHIP that Spencer Livermore - according to Pink News, the most powerful gay man in Britain - is to leave 10 Downing Street to join Saatchi & Saatchi. Livermore has been blamed by many for the strategic cockups of the autumn, which did Brown and Labour so much political damage. It is thought that Stephen Carter, Brown's new recruit, was none too impressed with the political acumen of the thirty two year old, and Livermore didn't appreciate having to report to Carter. Brown will be sorry to lose him as they had a close working relationship and had been political soulmates for many years.

Nine Lords a Blogging...

Nine members of the House of Lords have started a group blog valled LORDS OF THE BLOG. It's a six month experiment, arranged by the Hansard Society. Barry Griffiths, the man behind the project says...

Nine Peers have come together from across the House to make short regular entries providing an insight into the business of the House of Lords and to talk about their own activities in and around the Chamber. Members will write and upload material and moderate user comments themselves. Find out why Lord Tyler decries the myth of a golden age of political reporting; Baroness D’Souza’s definition of a crossbencher and what Lord Norton has to say about Iain Dale’s request for nominations for the most fanciable political journalists. For the next six months the Hansard Society will evaluate the pilot, capturing data about the audience of the blog in order to assess its reach and value.

The pilot is funded by the House of Lords and will run for six months initially. The blog has been running on a development site since January to help get the contributing members up to speed. All the posts published during this test period will be available to read. Contributing Members include:

• Lord Soley
• Lord Norton
• Lord Tyler
• Lord Lipsey
• Lord Dholakia
• Baroness DSouza
• Lord Teverson
• Baroness Young of Hornsey
• Baroness Murphy

Tories Should Shift the Debate to Spending & Waste

In my Telegraph column on Friday I wrote this...

The Tories should be radical and get angry on behalf of all sectors of the business community. They must revisit the question of eliminating waste in government and create an extensive list of the needless regulations that could be abolished in the first six months of a Tory government.

So I was delighted to read Nicholas Watt's article in this morning's Guardian saying that is just what David Cameron intends to do.

David Cameron is to salvage a Tory plan to cut government spending by £12bn that formed the centrepiece of Michael Howard's 2005 general election campaign. In a sign of his determination to cut taxes, Cameron has authorised his shadow Treasury team to dust down the so-called James review of 2004-05, which identified £12bn of potential government savings."We are still committed to many aspects of the James review," a senior Tory told the Guardian. "It has some very sound ideas. Savings will go into the pot and will be used for tax cuts or be spent elsewhere."

If the Conservatives are ever to reduce the tax burden, they must first of all reduce the amount of public spending. Indeed, it is spending where the focus of debate should now be, not on tax. There is a huge amount of waste within the system and it needs to be identified and then rooted out. In a budget of £681 billion it must surely be possible to identify savings of upwards of £20 billion. To avoid the usual Labour charges of slashing and burning they need to be identified individually, and costed. So let's have James Mark II. And soon.

LabourHome: BBC is Biased Against Red Ken!

LabourHome reckons the BBC is biased against Ken Livingstone and they use yesterday's interview with me on the Politics Show to prove their case. The reason there was no one from the left on with me was that Michael White got stuck in traffic and arrived shortly after the programme finished. So no conspiracy there. They also complain that I was introduced as "some sort of independent expert". Rubbish. I was introduced as a blogger and Telegraph columnist. The clue is in the last bit, I'd have thought.

This follows Labour making an official complaint to the BBC when they omitted to mention the word "Conservative" in introducing me on News 24 the other day. They really are getting too paranoid for words. Perhaps CCHQ should complain to the BBC every time Kevin Maguire is on, and bleat that they should have introduced him with the words "Gordon Brown's ventriloquist's dummy".

PS LabourHome also reckon I was given a soft interview. Didn't feel like that from where I was sitting. The programme still hasn't been uploaded to the Politics Show website so I can't prove it to you one way or the other!

Monday Morning Quiz

If someone walked by your desk for twelve years without so much as uttering the words "good morning", would you think...

a) he had 'issues'
b) he was a bit weird
c) he had 'psychological flaws'
d) he was the future Prime Minister of Great Britain & Northern Ireland
e) all the above

An Achieveable Tax Cut?

Donal Blaney proposes HERE that David Cameron should indeed offer a tax cut. He suggests that lifting the income tax allowance to £10,000 would be a tax cut which everyone could support. He writes...

Taxes can be cut in such a way as to tie into David Cameron's desire to show the Tories are being pro-family and compassionate. If the nil rate band were to be raised to, say, £10,000 each and every taxpayer would benefit - but the greatest benefit would be felt by the lowest paid. It would therefore be socially just as well as electorally popular. It would also be philosophically the right thing to do.

I know there's a number of very clever tax people who read this blog. Anyone care to enlighten us as to how much that would cost to achieve?

Boris Snippets

As I continue my sniffle ridden trawl through the Sunday papers I have reached the Sunday Times magazine to find a rather pathetic profile of Boris by someone who rejoices under the name of John-Paul Flintoff. It's less a profile, more of a sorry litany of sub Louis Theroux attempts to interview Boris, all of which end in failure. He cannot understand why Boris's people don't want to give him several hours of Boris's time. Having read the piece, they clearly made the right decision. These profile writers seem to think they should be allowed access to leading politicians as of right.

As an aside, I made my first visit to the Giant Gonad (otherwise known as City Hall) this morning to do a 5 minute piece on the mayoral campaign for the London part of the Politics Show. It was meant to be a discussion with Michael White of the Guardian. Sadly Michael arrived two minutes after the interview had finished so I had the floor to myself! And yes, I know in my state I should never have gone out of the house, but the show must go on! I managed to get through it without coughing once. Anyway, I am feeling better now, having dosed myself up with Nurofen. A nation rejoices...

DUP MPs to Bail out Brown on 42 Days?

Surely the DUP wouldn't be so idiotic as to save Jacqui Smith's skin over 42 days, would they? Our Kingdom reckons it's on the cards. If you know a DUP MP, do have a word in their ear...

Brown About to Bury Some More Embarrassing News

This will, in all likelihood be my first and last post today as I continue to feel like death warmed up. I've had a streaming cold and cough for nearly a week now, and can't seem to shake it off. Today it is worse than ever. It seems there is a lot of it about.

One story from the Sunday papers which caught my eye, tucked away on page 2 of the Sunday Times, was the fact that Gordon Brown is going to announce the creation of a National Security Council this week, to fight terrorism and climate change. I suspect it actual announcement will be long on analysis but short on action. Apparently he is going to make the announcement on Wednesday. I am sure it is a coincidence, but on Wednesday the Conservatives have an Opposition Day motion on post office closures, which will be especially embarrassing for many Labour MPs? Why? Because the motion the Conservatives have put down is exactly the same wording as an EDM on the same subject, which many Labour MPs have signed. They now face a dilemma of voting with the Conservatives on a motion they have previously supported or looking complete burks and hypocrites.

So as you can see, I am sure Gordon Brown wouldn't want to deflect attention away from that debate, would he? No Siree.

Poll Puts Tories 16% Ahead

In this morning's Independent, Andy Grice wrote a column asking why the Conservatives weren't further ahead in the polls. He said it was the main topic of conversation at the Spring Conference.

Well, as if by magic, a poll has just been released by the Sunday Times which shows the Conservatives 16 points ahead of Labour on 43%, with the LibDems on 16%. Let me repeat that - sixteen whole per centage points ahead. An ICM poll for the News of the World shows the Tories 9 points ahead of Labour on 40%, with the LibDems on 20%.

As always on these occasions, let's not go overboard, but we may well look back on Alistair Darling's budget as the day the electorate lost its patience with Labour.

For more details of the poll, click HERE. More on Political Betting.com HERE.

Andrew Rawnsley to front 18DS Successor

A few more details about the successor to the late lamented 18 Doughty Street have emerged. ConservativeHome revealed yesterday that The Observer's Andrew Rawnsley is to be the editor in chief of PoliticsHomeIndex.com. This is certainly quite a coup for them. When Rawnsley's Sunday political programme was axed I approached him to become involved in 18DS, so I am pleased it has come to fruition.

I understand that former BBC political journalist Nick Assinder, who left the corporation last year, has also joined the company. Apart from ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie, Martin Bright, political editor of the New Statesman is also involved the initiative, which is intended to be politically balanced. The project is being run by Freddie Sayers, who is an occasional contributor to The Spectator and a close friend of the Clintons. I understand PHI is being billed as a 'Bloomberg for politics' and will aggregate all the latest political news stories in one place. It's very much a news based site and unlike 18DS will have no original programming content. A major part of its appeal is based on a daily opinion poll (called the PHI - The PoliticsHome Index) of 100 Westminster insiders.

I'm not sure exactly when it is launching fully but I really wish it well and hope that it will fill a niche in political life on the internet.

More on ConservativeHome and Puffbox.

PS. Just to be clear, I left 18 Doughty Street at the end of November. I have no involvement in the new project and am not part of the PHI poll of Westminster insiders - in case you were wondering!

The 'People Like Us' Phenomenon

Last night on Sky News we briefly discussed why the media gave a much higher profile to the Madeleine McCann case than the Shannon Matthews disappearance. There are, I'm sure lots of factors, but one was the fact that for the media, the McCanns were very much "people like us", or should I say, people like them. The Matthews family were nothing like the media classes in appearance, lifestyle and outlook. I really think there is something in this. Let's take the analogy further.

My fellow panelist, Peter Whittle, asserted that the reason David Cameron was given more or less a free ride by the media in his first eighteen months was because he belonged to the "people like us" class. Was this part of the reason the media were so keen to promote him, and do down David Davis after his conference speech? Not consciously, but I do wonder if there was something subconcious about it.

Why was the coverage of the New Orleans floods slightly underdone by the US media? It might it have been different if it had happened in Manhatten, where "people like us" live?

Harriet Harman was given a comparatively easy ride by the media when she sent her kids to a selective school. Could it have been because many media people were facing the same dilemma?

I could go on, but you see my point. That's where the internet comes into its own. It's more difficult in the blogosphere to go along with 'people like us' stories, because the truth is that there are millions of people out there who will expose the phenomenon's hypocrisy.

There is one positive effect of the "people like us" phenomenon. In Dewsbury it brought a whole community together. The people on the estate where Shannon Matthews lived came together as one to try to help find her. It gave their community a spirit which it patently hadn't had before. Why did they come together like that? Because Shannon Matthews came from a "family like us".

William Hague on Form

From William Hague's speech to the Tory Spring Conference this morning...

There they were when we met at Blackpool last October, talking of nothing but an imminent election with the arrogant over-confidence that comes from too long in power. Neil Kinnock was even there to say that an election would be called and the Tories would be ‘ground in to the dust’. A triumphalist Kinnock - a sure sign that everything was about to come to grief.

For it turned out within hours that the Prime Minister who had calculated on an early election before he was found out had been rumbled already; that the leader who had prepared for the battle did not have the bottle to begin it; and it has since turned out that he is the same leader who agrees a European Treaty but can’t decide whether to attend the ceremony, calls a minister incompetent but couldn’t decide whether to sack him, calls a review of round the clock drinking but then can’t decide to go ahead and put a stop to it as he should; this is the Prime Ditherer of the nation. He reminds me of the American state Governor who once said ‘I’m not indecisive. Or am I?’

Perhaps this is no surprise, but for me the truly astounding fact we have discovered in recent months is that a Cabinet without John Prescott and Margaret Beckett is less competent than the Cabinet when they were in it.

Not only have they lost the bank account details of every family in the country and let out thousands of criminals early because they failed to plan for prison places, but we have a Home Secretary who is scared to walk down the street and a Chancellor who appeared to have dreamt he was delivering the budget and then woke up to find that he was."

How Political Correctness Caused the Credit Crunch

A reader has alerted me to an article from the New York Post which seems to allege that the present credit crunch crisis is at least in part due to political correctness on behalf of US legislators. Read the full article HERE and make up your own mind. Here's an excerpt...

At the crisis' core are loans that were made with virtually nonexistent underwriting standards - no verification of income or assets; little consideration of the applicant's ability to make payments; no down payment. Most people instinctively understand that such loans are likely to be unsound. But how did the heavily-regulated banking industry end up able to engage in such foolishness?

From the current hand-wringing, you'd think that the banks came up with the idea of looser underwriting standards on their own, with regulators just asleep on the job. In fact, it was the regulators who relaxed these standards - at the behest of community groups and "progressive" political forces.

In the 1980s, groups such as the activists at ACORN began pushing charges of "redlining" - claims that banks discriminated against minorities in mortgage lending. In 1989, sympathetic members of Congress got the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act amended to force banks to collect racial data on mortgage applicants; this allowed various studies to be ginned up that seemed to validate the original accusation.

In fact, minority mortgage applications were rejected more frequently than other applications - but the overwhelming reason wasn't racial discrimination, but simply that minorities tend to have weaker finances. Yet a "landmark" 1992 study from the Boston Fed concluded that mortgage-lending discrimination was systemic.

That study was tremendously flawed - a colleague and I later showed that the data it had used contained thousands of egregious typos, such as loans with negative interest rates. Our study found no evidence of discrimination. Yet the political agenda triumphed - with the president of the Boston Fed saying no new studies were needed, and the US comptroller of the currency seconding the motion.

No sooner had the ink dried on its discrimination study than the Boston Fed, clearly speaking for the entire Fed, produced a manual for mortgage lenders stating that: "discrimination may be observed when a lender's underwriting policies contain arbitrary or outdated criteria that effectively disqualify many urban or lower-income minority applicants."

Some of these "outdated" criteria included the size of the mortgage payment relative to income, credit history, savings history and income verification. Instead, the Boston Fed ruled that participation in a credit-counseling program should be taken as evidence of an applicant's ability to manage debt.

Sound crazy? You bet. Those "outdated" standards existed to limit defaults. But bank regulators required the loosened underwriting standards, with approval by politicians and the chattering class. A 1995 strengthening of the Community Reinvestment Act required banks to find ways to provide mortgages to their poorer communities. It also let community activists intervene at yearly bank reviews, shaking the banks down for large pots of money.

Banks that got poor reviews were punished; some saw their merger plans frustrated; others faced direct legal challenges by the Justice Department. Flexible lending programs expanded even though they had higher default rates than loans with traditional standards. On the Web, you can still find CRA loans available via ACORN with "100 percent financing . . . no credit scores . . . undocumented income . . . even if you don't report it on your tax returns." Credit counseling is required, of course.

Amazing.

Advice from the Stalking Consultancy

I met a very interesting ex Policeman tonight in the green room at Sky News. He was there to talk about the Shannon Matthews case. He handed me his business card on which he is described as giving "stalking advice and protection". Very interesting, I thought to myself. That could come in handy. His advice on dealing with stalkers was never ever to interact with them. He said it is impossible to reason with them because every time you answer a question, they change the question. Exactly my experience.

The Daley Dozen: Friday

1. Boris is running the best campaign according to the PHI Westminster insider poll.
2. Norfolk Blogger has a good old rant against Jamie Oliver.
3. LibDem Voice gets a letter from Question Time about anti LibDem bias.
4. Red Box makes me glad I haven't trekked up to Gateshead.
5. Kerron Cross thinks Tories can't change their spots.
6. Nadine is surprised at Nick Clegg's announcement.
7. Jon Craig in fox killing shocker.
8. Danny Finkelstein on the maths of Shannon Matthews.
9. Dave's Part defends the conduct of Client 9.
10. EU Referendum on those uppity Balts.
11. John Redwood on Nick Clegg's twisted logic.
12. Liberal England on Shirley Williams and her denial.

Burning Our Money

If you've never visited the Burning Our Money blog, do yourself a favour and bookmark it. It's written by Mike Denham, whose insights into the world of government expenditure and waste are beyond comparison. His latest post is a brilliant expose of the pensions timebomb that is about to hit us. Be afraid. Very afraid.

Yahoo Leaves Britain Because of High Taxes

As if to prove my point about business taxes being too high, Yahoo has today announced it is moving out of London to Switzerland in order to cut its Corporation Tax bill.

Small Business & the Paternity/Maternity Dilemma

As you will see below, I used my Telegraph column today to write about how the Conservative Party has an opportunity to regain the business vote. In particular, it needs to target the small business vote. This cause will not be helped by today's announcement on maternity/paternity pay.

Imagine you are a small business, employing a dozen people. Imagine that you employ a husband and wife, who suddenly inform you that in three months time that they will be having a child. Your joy for them is unalloyed, but at the back of your mind you are dismayed. You are embarrassed at your train of thought and try to hide your dismay.

Why might you be dismayed? Because these two people have been trained to do a job and it would be impossible to replace them for a temporary period of six months if they both decide to take maternity/paternity leave.

So whatever the family benefits of this policy announcement may be (and they are many) I hope that safeguards for small businesses have been properly thought through.

Cutting Deficits

Reform reports that...

Zapetero’s victory in Spain shows that a government can reduce deficits (according to the OECD, Spain is now running a 1.9 per cent surplus compared to Britain’s 2.9 per cent deficit) and command popular support. Spain has also reduced debt to 21 per cent of GDP. This compares with Britain’s 37 per cent debt, which is widely forecast to break the Sustainable Investment Rule (40 per cent).

Alistair Darling should pay a visit to Madrid and learn about fiscal conservatism...

A Ray of Light

The news that Shannon Matthews has been found safe and well is obviously wonderful for everyone concerned with the case. It will bring hope to other families whose children are missing. It makes me wonder how the McCanns will be feeling this afternoon.

Telegraph Column: The Tories & the Business Vote

My Telegraph column today concentrates on how the love affair between Labour and business is over and the opportunity this presents for the Conservatives. Here's an extract...

In some ways, appealing to the business community is a simpler task than appealing to the electorate as a whole. Most Tory MPs know what business people put at the top of their wish list: to be left alone. They know this because a good proportion of them have worked in business and they know the damage government intervention can do.

Fewer than 10 out of 350 Labour MPs have ever run a business. Business Secretary John Hutton's qualification for the job is that he was a law lecturer at Newcastle Poly for 11 years before becoming an MP. The minister for business, Shriti Vadera, has spent the past eight years as an adviser to Gordon Brown. She counts among her "achievements" Railtrack's renationalisation, the selling of Qinetiq for a fraction of its true value, and the disastrous creation of Metronet. This one-woman disaster zone has cost the taxpayer several hundred million pounds, but she clearly isn't finished yet...

...Northern Rock has shot Labour's economic competence to pieces, but the Tories can't just take for granted that the City will turn to them. Muttering platitudes about "sharing the proceeds of growth" is not good enough. Government borrowing is spiralling out of control, so it is now time to look at Labour's spending plans again and question whether it is wise to stick with the commitment to spend money the country hasn't got.

Read the full column HERE.

Dale on TV

Tonight, 11.30pm News 24 with Alex Hilton on Question Time Extra. (Watch it HERE)

Friday, 10.30pm and 11.30pm, Sky News paper review

Sat, 11.45pm, News 24 paper review

Sun, 12.20pm, BBC Politics Show (London) on the mayoral contest with Michael White


Excuse the coughing and spluttering. And apologies for the lack of regularity of blogging this week. Work commitments and a streaming cold have not really been conducive to heavy blogging. Hopefully back to normal service soon.

The Sort of Interview Ed Balls Would Like

A question from a press conference with the Chinese Foreign Minister this month (and I swear this is genuine)...

China Radio International: We saw you on television, singing Suzhou opera with other CPPCC members, making a deep impression on us all. Could you tell us about some of your other leisure-time activities? In addition, the media often describes you as scholarly yet witty and well-educated but humorous. Is this part of your natural personality or has it been shaped by your diplomatic career? Thank you.

I am sure Adam Boulton will learn from this.

Thought for the Day

A reader writes...

The government will next year spend £1700 million a day. A day! £681 billion in total. Benefits will cost more than the total take from income tax. The NHS will cost more than the total take of national insurance. Education spends the total take from VAT. It’s absolutely out of control.

I could not agree more.

The Daley Dozen: Wednesday

1. Guido has the video of Cameron's putdown of 'Blinky' Balls.
2. Ben Brogan sniffs an election.
3. Matthew D'Ancona on the private Tory response to the budget.
4. What a Balls up says the Blairite John Rentoul.
5. Fraser Nelson explains how Alistair Darling has made a line of Cocaine cheaper than a half of cider.
6. Donal Blaney on penal reform. That's penal.
7. Alistair Darling was dullsville personified according to Kevin Maguire.
8. Cranmer on Darling's first and last budget.
9. Conor Burns on the Iranian teenager about to be sent back to Iran to be hanged.
10. Dave's Part wants the extreme left to vote for Ken.
11. John Redwood on the Plastic Bag budget.
12. Paul Linford says the budget was 'boring not bad'.


A special mention for the Spectator Coffee House blog, which wiped the floor with the rest of us today. Their budget coverage was the best on the net. And that includes the BBC. D'Ancona, Nelson and Neil beat Jade Goody, Trisha Goddard and Evan Davis's nipple clamps into a cocked hat.

Bob Spink: UKIP Are Welcome to Him

I've never met Bob Spink, but from what I know of his views and career, I doubt whether he and I would really hit it off. The kind of politician who puts on his election leaflet "What part of send them back, Mr Blair" is not someone I can relate to. When I read about that I felt he was in the wrong party. He may have many attributes but so far they have escaped my notice. His behaviour today was reprehensible and the Conservative Chief Whip, Patrick McLoughlin., did the only thing he could do - tell him to sit on it and swivel.

If Spink had had any judgement, he would have looked at and learned from what happened to Sir Patrick Cormack, who recently emerged victorious from a deselection battle. Sir Patrick handled the whole thing with skill and decorum. There were no tantrums, but he waited until his enemies struck. He flushed them out and defeated them. Spink hasn't even had the guts to face his critics. I have no idea what the allegations he makes against his constituency association amount to. No doubt they will be widely discussed and investigated, but as far as Mr Spink is concerned, the die is cast.

So what happens now? Spink has dug an even deeper hole for himself in a further statement this evening, which indicates to me that there will be no way back for him. Good. I've little doubt that Spink will stand as an Independent against whoever is chosen to succeed him. His only chance of achieving anything other than a humiliating result will be to fight under the banner of another Party. He already has a track record of defending UKIP, so I'd bet money that he'll end up with them. His defection was already rumoured a couple of years ago.

These internal party spats are always unseemly and no one ever emerges with much credit. But the boil has now been well and truly lanced and it's probably a good thing.

Budget Live Blog

13.22 ABSOLUTELY NO MENTION OF NORTHERN ROCK!!!!!!!

13.21: Raising winter fuel benefit from £200 to £250 for pensioners.

13.21: Gift Aid will continue at the current rate of 22% for the next three years.

13.20: Still no mention of Northern Rock.

13.18: So no detail on how much VED will rise by! Incredible. Just an aspiration. Or will it be hidden away in the Red Book?

13.17: Road Tax. Here we go. [tightens belt]. From 2009 VED will be rebanded to encourage people to use less polluting cars. People will have to pay more in the first year. Why only the first year?

13.16: Aviation must meet its environmental costs. Cars account for 22% of total emissions.

13.13: Anti plastic bag legislation in 2009. Money raised to go to environmental charities.

13.11: Climate Change - here's the sting...

13.09: No mention yet of Northern Rock.

13.06: So let's get this straight. My road tax is going to shoot up. I've got to pay more for petrol. I've got to pay £25 a day congestion charge, £2000 extra showroom tax (maybe) and also road tolls. Glad we've got that clear.

13.06: Inviting tenders for road pricing technology. Tories did that in 1995!

13.05: A startling admission that "we do need more capacity on our roads".

13.01: Confirms non dom tax from April. No more changes in this Parliament or the next.

13:00: Corporation Tax - lowest in G7. Has fallen from 38% to 28%. No more changes. More help for small businesses on top of previous announcements in January. Wants to help them get finance more easily.

12.55: Is anyone still awake? Judging from the noise in the House of Commons, very few MPs are.

12.52: He says he wants to help children from 'hard working families'. Isn't it the children from non hard working families who are most likely to need help?

12.51: Remember when budgets used to be about the nation's finances? This is just one long party political broadcast. Anyone would think there was an election in the offing.

12.46: Says public spending rising slower than in last ten years. Grew by 3.6% 1997-2007. Will go up by 2.2% in future.

12.44: I'm bored now. Can I have a tax cut please?

12.42: 2008 borrowing is £36 billion, £1.4 billion lower than forecast. 2009 will go up to £43 billion. Says this is lower than in Tory years.

12.41: Says borrowing is lower than it was in 1997. Funny way of calculating it, then. Says public finances are strong. Set to signal increased borrowing.

12.39: Inflation target to remain 2%. That will be the first pledge to be broken then. Most people who live in the real world know that it's far higher than that now.

12.36: All countries have lowered their growth forecasts. 2008 growth forecast to be 1.75-2.25% for 2008. Faster than Japan and the US, says Darling.

12.34: Don't blame it on the sunshine, don't blame it on the moonlight, don't blame it on the good times, blame it on the world econonmy.

12.33: I can see 'stability' replacing prudence as a watchword. Stability, fairness, blah blah. Building a fairer society, more opportunity. Come on, cut the blah, get on with telling me how you're going to make my pips squeak!

12.23: Robert Peston predicts huge rise in borrowing and says the main question will be how much taxes rise by and when. He suspects there may be a delay in implementation.

12.20: PMQs was a damp squib with David Cameron asking about Dafur and then whipping on the Human Embryo & Fertilisation Bill. He scored a hit on that, I thought. Nick Clegg was a bit shouty on party funding, with Gordon Brown seeming to feel sorry for him by not going for the 'Michael Brown' jugular.

I'll be trying to do a Live Blog of Alistair Darling's budget speech from 12.30pm. I cannot promise that it won't run into a live rant...

Oh, and for an alternative budget view, click onto the BBC Politics Page to see what Jade Goody and Trisha Goddard think of what should be in the budget. This is naturally far more important than what Vince Cable, Michael Fallon or John McFall think. The only other video is on that page is of John Culshaw doing a comedy skit of Alistair Darling. And this is the country's premier public service broadcaster on budget day. YeGods. Yes, I am in rant mode...

Cue the Drum Roll

Never let it be said that Parliament is not concerned with the big issues: Gordon Banks (the MP, not the goalie) has a debate today in Westminster Hall at 4pm entitled "Looped cords on window blinds". A real must see event.

Coming next: A debate on the dangers of wooden clothes pegs.

UPDATE: Apparently the debate comes as a result of THIS tragic story, so a correspondent tells me. It is indeed a very sad tale, but does one tragic case imply that these things should be banned? If we go down that road there are very many things which the State could deem dangerous. Accidents will always happen no matter what precautions are taken. The difficulty is where to draw the line.

Chancellors & Budget Poll Results

Here's how 1,435 of you voted in the recent poll on Chancellors and pre-budget questions.

BEST LABOUR CHANCELLOR

Roy Jenkins 26%
Gordon Brown 24%
Hugh Gaitskell 15%

WORST LABOUR CHANCELLOR

Gordon Brown 44%
Alistair Darling 21%
James Callaghan 13%

BEST CONSERVATIVE CHANCELLOR

Ken Clarke 42%
Nigel Lawson 23%
Geoffrey Howe 15%

WORST CONSERVATIVE CHANCELLOR

Norman Lamont 38%
Anthony Barber 23%
Reginald Maudling 9%

WHO SHOULD BE THE NEXT TORY CHANCELLOR?

George Osborne 38%
John Redwood 22%
Ken Clarke 19%
William Hague 16%


PRE BUDGET QUESTIONS

Taxes on Alcopops should rise - Yes 64% No 31%
Road tax on 4x4 cars should double in order to help stop global warming - Yes 38% No 56%
The Chancellor should postpone the 2p a litre rise in petrol duty - Yes 69% No 28%
The Chancellor should cut taxes on business - Yes 80% No 15%
Non Doms should be taxed at a flat rate of £30k a year - Yes 38% No 48%
The Chancellor's top priority should be to reduce borrowing - Yes 72% No 24%
Inflation is far higher than government figures show - Yes 82% No 11%
National Insurance should be increased for people earning more than £100,000 a year - Yes 46% No 47%

Top Ten Lines Not in Darling's Budget

10. Tax Cuts, you want tax cuts? I'll show you tax cuts.
9. Let them eat cake.
8. You know last year's budget? We made it up.
7. And for my fifth reannouncement...
6. Iain Dale's new Audi will be exempt from the new £1,000 band of road tax.
5. And this year the real rate of inflation is 12% and rising.
4. We believe in the Laffer Curve.
3. And after the last ten years, it's been left to me to pick up the pieces.
2. See that wall over there? That's the one I'm going to let Northern Rock go to.
1. Do you seriously think I wrote this pile of crap?

The Daley Dozen: Tuesday

1. Edland challenges Darling: Spin your way out of the budget if you dare!
2. Adrian Monck explains why old people love political blogs.
3. Tim Marshall on truth and the Iranian elections.
4. James Kirkup asks what of the LibDems really do want to cut taxes.
5. Dizzy explains how Tom Watson MP has become a Cameroon.
6. Rachel North has a moving post about visiting her Dad.
7. Tory Diary has voted Michael Fallon as Parliamentarian of the Year.
8. Richard Spring MP salutes our troops.
9. It has to be 9 for a blog on Client 9, Eliot Spitzer by Richard Adams.
10. Red Box on why Civil Servant bloggers have the arseache with Civil Serf.
11. Chicken Yoghurt talks claptrap about a Labour Minister who deserves praise.
12. Melanie Phillips on the global warming 'scam'.

Manchester Mourns Its Chief Constable

I was very shocked to hear of the death this afternoon of Mike Todd, the Chief Constable of Greater Manchester Police. I met Mike on a couple of occasions and was impressed by the innovative policing he was overseeing in Manchester. Unfailingly cheerful, he seemed to me to be heading to the top. His body was found on a Welsh mountain today. I am sure his colleagues in Manchester will be absolutely devastated by the news, as he was hugely popular.

Former LibDem Candidate Joins Tories

Local councillor defections are never that interesting, but the defection of a former LibDem Parliamentary Candidate is. Today, Andy Sloan, who stood for the LibDems in 2005 in Hull East defected to the Tories. He's also a Hull City Councillor. His comments are interesting...

“I had once believed that the Liberal Democrat Party possessed a set of values and beliefs that were an alternative to the socialist Labour Party. I see now that this view was misplaced and that the Liberal Democrats exist for a singular purpose – namely, to maintain bits of orange on a political map, no matter what the consequence.

“The Liberal Democrat Party stands for nothing except to further its own electoral existence."

Last week's debacle seems to add weight to his accusation. I think I am right in saying that this defection brings to seven the number of former LibDem Parliamentary Candidates who have joined the Tories since the last election, with one going in the opposite direction.

A Moan About Council Tax

I got my Council Tax bill today. £2253.70, if you please - an increase of 4% on last year. Another sign of household bills outstripping the official inflation rate. When Labour came to power, the same bill would have been half that size. That's ten years of Labour for you. Ok, so I live in a larger than average house and earn more than average too, but I'm struggling to think what I get for my Council Tax beyond a fortnightly rubbish collection and a Police Service which thinks seven hours to come out after a burglary is quite acceptable. But the one thing which I really struggle with is the precept for Kent Fire Authority, which has risen by 3.5%. In the leaflet accompanying the bill we are told that the total number of fires attended has gone down from 62 per 10,000 people to 44.6. Accidental fires have gone down from 12.9 to 12.4. Deliberate fires have reduced from 41.3 per 10,000 to 27.6. And the number of road accidents has gone down from 8.3 to 7.5. Now any reasonable person might think that the cost of running the service would have been cut too, assuming a broadly similar population. Not a bit of it.

If you live in a Band D house your bill would be £1,378. This level of local taxation is almost getting to the point when people just won't be able to cope. In the end, all taxation is paid with the consent of the people. We remember all too well what happened in 1990 when the people withdrew that consent. Politicians from all parties would do well to remember that. Council Tax reform is all too easily dumped in the "too difficult" tray. That is not a tenable long term position. If you doubt me, look on the back of your own Council Tax Bill. It shows that your Council Tax is calculated on the basis of the value of your house in 1991. Nineteen Ninety One was seventeen years ago! According to their figures, my house was worth between £160,000 and £320,000 then. I won't tell you what it is worth now, but you can guess. No wonder Labour shied away from a revaluation just before the last election.

OK, so I have outlined the problem, what's the solution? I'll show you mine if you show me yours. Mine is called a Local Sales Tax. What's yours?

The Daley Dozen: Monday

1. Vicky Ford is on the campaign trail all over East Anglia. I'd vote for her!
2. Donal Blaney outlines the Seven Deadly Sins for a Tory leader... followed by Too Much Pussy (ahem)
3. Jon Craig on the consequences of a shrinking Tory poll lead.
4. Tim Worstall on the idiot BBC question of the day.
5. Paul Linford is Talking Balls. Ed Balls for PM! Noooooooooot.
6. Rosa Prince says Gordon and Mandy are still daggers drawn.
7. Civil Servants are to get advice on blogs and social networks ... from civil servants.
8. Ministry of Truth asks you to name a famous Kevin. Apart from Keegan.
9. Matthew Elliott & Corin Taylor on the huge growth of public spending under Labour.
10. The deaf couple blind to common sense, according to Tory Radio.
11. Nadine Dorries on very different reactions to a teenage death.
12. Guido on Labour's unfit for office new General Secretary.

Widdecombe Can't Bear the Bear Hunt

Ann Widdecombe has today given her support to a new campaign to persuade the MoD to stop buying black bearskins from Canada. In the last five years the Ministry of Defence has spent £320,000 on buying bearskin caps for the Queen's Guards. Ann unveiled a shocking new video at the House of Commons today - and believe me, it's not for the faint hearted. More than 200 MPs have already signed an Early Day Motion calling on the government to switch to a modern and humane synthetic fabric, but so far to no avail.

Isaby Gets New Telegraph Gossip Column

I've just learned that it's all change at the Spy Column at the Telegraph. In fact, it is ceasing to be. The Sunday Telegraph Mandrake column will take over, under the continuing editorship of Tim Walker.

Celia Walden is moving to feature writing, while the irrepressible Jonathan Isaby (pic left) has been given his own five day a week political gossip column, called Three Line Whip, continuing the branding of the blog of the same name.

Vote in the Chancellors & Budget Poll

Do you have a view on who have been the best Chancellors of the Exchequer since 1945? Who should be the next Conservative Chancellor? And what do you want to see in the budget on Wednesday?

Take part in my Budget Poll HERE. It will remain open until midnight on Tuesday and I will publish the results on Wednesday morning.

VOTE HERE

The Daley Dozen: Sunday

1. Glyn Davies thinks Nick Clegg is away with the pluralist fairies. Who am I to differ?
2. Toby Harnden on Obamas' monster win' in Wyoming.
3. Dan Hannan asks if Ireland will rescue Europe from Lisbon.
4. John Redwood explains what the budget should be about.
5. Burning our Money on the cost of being English.
6. Waendel Journal believes the editor of the News of the World should be arrested.
7. Donal Blaney is unworried by Green Chips.
8. Red Box laments no mention of Ming in Cleggy's speech. How very rude!
9. Ed Vaizey likes a man in uniform.
10. Lynne Featherstone MP wins the Campaign for Gender Balance Award. Congrats. I think.
11. EU Referendum on the great global warming fraud.
12. Liberal Burblings thinks Clegg has had a "masterful", "remarkably good week". Deluded.