When the SNP Wanted a Deal With the Tories

The row in Scotland over the Alex Salmond interview with Total Politics and his views on Thatcherism is even more interesting when you consider that in 1976 the SNP made covert approaches to Margaret Thatcher over the Labour government's devolution bill. I've just been reading a page in the Margaret Thatcher Archives, which reveals all...

Devolution occupied huge quantities of parliamentary time in the late 1970s, as the Labour Government struggled to persuade its backbenchers to support legislation establishing elected assemblies in Scotland and Wales.

Many ministers were themselves less than enthusiastic about devolution, but had little room for manoeuvre because their party had manifesto commitments and its tiny parliamentary majority had disappeared entirely by March 1977, leaving it dependent on minor parties which favoured the legislation.

The Conservatives had supported the principle of devolution since 1968 when Edward Heath had surprised most of his colleagues by suddenly making the commitment in a speech at Perth. But by the time MT became leader, many in the parliamentary party were privately lukewarm, dubious or downright hostile. They feared devolution might damage or lead to the break up the United Kingdom, foresaw a backlash against the policy in England and predicted big tactical advantages in opposing the government's plans, so making life even more difficult for Labour. MT was certainly a sceptic about the Perth commitment, though she feared that a sudden reversal of policy would cause internal divisions, particularly with those still loyal to Heath and in Scotland where the whole party establishment was strongly devolutionist.

The issue came to the crunch at the end of 1976, when the government's Scotland and Wales Bill reached Second Reading in the House of Commons, the point at which the principle behind the legislation is examined. What should the Conservatives do?

One suggestion came, remarkably, from the Scottish National Party. A Conservative Whip, Jack Weatherill (later Commons Speaker) tells how he was secretly approached by the Scottish Nationalist MP, Hamish Watt, urging MT not to vote against the Second Reading , on the ground that: "If she does it will be impossible for the SNP to have any working arrangements with us". According to the note, Watt - who was a former Conservative parliamentary candidate - saw common ground between the two parties, particularly if (as many expected) the Conservatives were to become the next UK Government with the SNP a strong presence in Scotland. Whether he spoke for himself alone or for any of his colleagues was unclear. Certainly there is no evidence in her files of a Conservative response, and when (two years later) there were press reports of Conservative efforts to reach a deal with the SNP to remove Labour on a confidence motion, MT made an immediate on-the-record denial.

Why Alex Salmond is Smiling Today

It is strongly rumoured that one of the DUP's conditions for voting with the government on 42 days was that the revenues from the sale of disused army bases and barracks in Northern Ireland would go to Stormont, rather than the Treasury, as would be normal in these circumstances.

If true, Brown may have made a very big rod for his own back. My SNP friends are already licking their lips in anticipation of a precedent now having been set. The precedent is that that revenues from UK assets in a devolved territory are the property of that devolved government, not Westminster. This means Alex Salmond is sitting on a potential goldmine at Faslane (one of the world's very few facilities dedicated to the servicing and upkeep of nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarines - which could mean an independent Scotland using the facilities to service American, English or French subs...for a price, of course) and more importantly...oil.

Oops.

Paxman on Scottish Independence: Not Bovvered

I must admit I take the old fashioned view that it's not really a good idea for current affairs presenters to involve themselves in political issues, but Jeremy Paxman usually gets a special dispensation. In today's Telegraph he is quoted with his views on the future of the Union, or lack of it.

"I think the view down here would be 'if our friends in Scotland decide they don't want the Union to continue any longer, well that is a judgment for them'. And if they really don't want to be sharing the same house with us, and want to move out, well that's a bit of a shame. It is like watching a marriage decay among friends. But if that's what they want, well let them do it. You really ought to snap out of this sense that everyone down here is worried about it. They are not."

Is he right? Do the English really not give a monkey's arse what the Scots decide to do? I'm not sure I would quite put it like that, personally, but in the end self determination is what must win through. If Scotland wishes to be independent, it is indeed up to the Scottish people. Funny how we English don't get a vote on whether we'd like to be independent of Scotland, though!

And before anyone starts, that is no more an anti-Scottish comment than a Scottish blogger suggesting it the other way around!

A Conservative/SNP Pact in Westminster is no Longer a Fantasy

Alex Salmond is fast developing a reputation as a political colossus. North of the border he's single-handedly masterminded the defeat of the Labour Party and rubbed their noses into the dirt. The Scottish Labour Party is in turmoil. They have a leader whose popularity (if that's the right word) is 75 points behind Alex Salmond, and after nearly a year in power, the SNP is becoming more popular by the month. Yesterday's MRUK Cello poll for the Scottish Sunday Times showed the SNP with a healthy 8 point lead over Labour and six points up on the previous poll. If the Scottish elections were re-run now the SNP would be on 57 seats and Labour on 44.

The SNP has now extracted from the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times (the one showing the Tories 16 points ahead) data which shows that for a Westminster election the SNP is 7 points ahead of Labour and 19 points up on the 2005 General Election. This would give them 27 seats and give Labour a heart attack. It would also mean that the SNP become key players in a hung Parliament, giving the Conservatives a second option for coalition partners.

This would have been unthinkable even a year ago, yet in Scotland there is a growing respect between the SNP and the Conservatives, and this is being reflected in Westminster too. There is growing friendly banter between leading Tories and the SNP's small but perfectly formed band of Westminster MPs.

The SNP no longer regards the Tories as the devil incarnate, but any formal coalition is currently still an impossibility under the SNP constitution, I believe. Certain elements of the SNP believe this to be outdated, but a formal move to amend the constitution would be highly unlikely.

So what short term implications does all this have? Firstly, Labour will make no headway north of the border unless the hapless Wendy Alexander is ditched. Secondly, Gordon Brown's refusal to 'do business' with Alex Salmond is playing right into the SNP's hands. They have become the voice of sweet reason, while Brown looks bitter and twisted. No change there then.

If there were shares in Alex Salmond you'd be buying them now. As a Labour MP said to me today: "There's only one way to stop Alec Salmond in his tracks and that's assassination". He was joking. I think.

28 Days Later: Why the SNP Should Wait

Under the Scottish electoral system if the Scottish Parliament has not elected a First Minister within 28 days of an election, it's back to the drawing board and a second election has to be held. At the moment it looks improbable that Alex Salmond and the SNP will be able to put together any form of meaningful coalition now that the LibDems have snubbed them.

There are two ways of looking at this from the SNP's viewpoint. You could take the view that in any rerun they would get more votes and more seats, making their bargaining position that much stronger, or you could take the view that if the rerun election takes place as Gordon Brown takes over at Number Ten the Labour Party would do better.

I take the first view. If the SNP won a second election they would be in a far stronger position. I would expect the LibDems and the Conservatives to show a drop in support and seats. It was quite clear that many Conservatives lent their votes to the SNP last Thursday. In several of the constituency seats the rise in the level of support for the SNP was exactly matched by a fall in the Tory vote. That trend could well be extended in any second election. As an aside, this electoral trend shows that there is still a core Tory vote in Scotland, which is somewhat higher than that shown by the results.

So if I were Alex Salmond, I would be distinctly unconcerned by the lack of progress in forming a government. I'd bide my time, make the other parties look unreasonable, and then 28 days later, ask the Scottish people what they think.

SNP Takes Advantage of Labour Turmoil

News reaches me from New Labour sources that Gordon Brown's worst nightmare is materialising with significant progress for the Scot Nats ahead of May's Scottish Parliament polls.

In recent weeks Broon has tried to micromanage his northern fiefdom, as the Labour campaign has come apart at the seams. This has included his clumsy efforts to rope the CBI in as part of his election efforts against Salmond's insurgents.

All to no avail, with bad news for Brown followed by even worse news. Yesterday's Scottish papers were full of resignation stories of a key Labour campaign figure. This is about to be trumped by a poll out tomorrow (Wednesday) in the Scotsman which shows the Nat lead over Labour growing!

With less than 70 days to go until polling day the SNP are five points ahead in the constituency contest and 4 points in the PR list vote. In terms of Holyrood seats this is seriously bad news for Labour. They wouldn't even have enough to continue their coalition love-in with the LibDems whose support is also down.

My New Labour insider says this mess is the perfect Blair legacy for Brown!