It Won't Be Balls Who Will Be Squeezed

One thing the Conservatives don't seem to have thought of yet, in their critique of what might happen if Labour wins the election, is who would be Chancellor of the Exchequer in a new Brown government. One thing is clear, it certainly won't be Alistair Darling, who I'd bet my mortgage will be squeezed out of 11 Downing Street as the first decision in a Cabinet reshuffle.

Now, I don't like to frighten people as you know, but it's pretty damned clear who will replace him. Step forward Edward Michael Balls.

Imagine, Piers Fletcher-Dervish ruining running our economy for the next five years. Hardly bears thinking about, does it? Time to recycle and old Michael Heseltine maxim, I feel. Who will be running the economy?

It won't be Brown, it'll be Balls!

Darling - 12 Weeks and Counting

Today the BBC reports Alistair Darling as saying...

"The next spending review will be the toughest we have had for 20 years...to me, cutting the borrowing was never negotiable. Gordon accepts that, he knows that."

This is clearly a result of the concessions that were forced on Gordon Brown as a result of the attempted removal of him from his position. It can only lead to one (or more) of three conclusions...

• Gordon Brown always knew this was the case, but refused to tell the British people, or allow them to be told, intending instead to present a false scenario until after the election. In other words - to mislead the electorate.
• Gordon Brown, whilst telling us he is the man to steer us out of the recession, does not believe that the massive cuts are necessary, but will accept them anyway, if it means he keeps his job. In other words - he is putting himself before the good of the country.
• Gordon Brown, whilst allowing his Chancellor to make the statements, does not intend, if he won the election, to allow him to follow them through.

I suspect the first one is the correct interpretation, but I also think if he won the next election he'd dispose of Darling as his first act. Alistair Darling is in a great position of power at the moment. But he knows he's only got four months left in the job, no matter what the outcome of the election.

Alistair Darling Disagrees With Himself

The Chancellor, Alistair Darling, is considered by Labour types to be a safe pair of hands. That reputation has been damaged a little this evening. Earlier this evening, just before 6pm, at the beginning of his speech during a debate in the House of Commons he said... said in the Chamber earlier...

"We are not yet out of recession"

George Osborne immediately challenged him and he looked a little flustered. Why? Because it contradicts what he says about coming out of recession at the end of the last year.

'As I said at the Budget, I expect growth will return at the turn of the year'
(quoted in Telegraph, 25 November).

In the PBR he said:

'But as I forecast at the Budget, I expect a return to growth in the fourth quarter.'

Well, which is it Mr Darling?

Let the Recession Run Its Course, Says Darling

Andrew Marr's programme yesterday carried some Quotes of 2008. This one, on the coming recession, was from Alistair Darling in April...

I suppose one analogy you might use is, you know, you imagine that someone's eaten some bad food and they've got a dose of food poisoning. Some aspects of it just have to work their way through the system.

Can someone please explain how this is any different from "letting the recession run its course", which John Maples got into so much trouble for? The answer is that there is, of course, no difference. No difference at all. Except, of course, that it wasn't said by a Conservative. I look forward to the full media outcry today and calls from Labour politicians for him to apologise.

Fat chance.

Hattip: Paul Waugh.

Darling: British Recession Will be Worse Than Elsewhere

"Of course we are more likely to be more severely affected as a result
[of the UK's dependence on the City and housing market]".
Alistair Darling, 15 December 2008, House of Commons

So there it is. Alistair Darling has finally admitted what the rest of us have known all along. And Tessa Jowell says it will be the "worst recession we have ever known".

So let's lay bets on whether Gordon Brown will ever be able to keep a straight face again when he tells us we are "better placed than other countries" to withstand the recession. Darling has let the cat out of the bag.

Hattip: Paul Waugh

What Lies Behind Alistair Darling's Blether?

Having just watched two interviews with Alistair Darling by Nick Robinson and Gavin Esler, I got the impression of a man completely on the edge - at the end of his tether. The body language was astonishing. He flitted from one thing to another, sounded as nervous as I have ever heard a Cabinet Minister sound in an interview of this nature and he blethered for Britain. Anyone would think he feared for his job.

Don't be Like Jimmy Carter, Darling

Alistair Darlings comments this morning further enhance his image as a merchant of doom. He might as well have said 'the end is nigh'. Leaving aside the fact that he is having to promote short term policies drafted by Number Ten and not the Treasury, it is clear that Labour MPs are losing their patience with the Chancellor. What they want is someone who is more upbeat and can be positive about the long term future. They rightly ask that if the economy is supposedly so strong, why is the Chancellor talking it down and talking us further into a recession?

Alistair Darling is a British Jimmy Carter. In 1979 Carter talked about a 'national malaise' which was sweeping America. Darling's comments are very similar. A year later, Ronald Reagan swept to power on a wave of optimism. He exuded it. There's a lesson there for British Conservatives today. Optimism wins elections. Gloom and doom doesn't.

The Quivering Lip of Alistair Darling

Oh what joy. Do click on THIS link to see Alistair Darling undergo 90 seconds of hell as he attempts to "clarify" his remarks in his Guardian interview by BBC Scottish Political Editor Brian Taylor. He's asked about his comment on Wendy Alexander being 'unlikeable' and ties himself up in knots. In his second evasive reply watch his bottom lip. It's quiver-tastic television.

One other thing. I know we are supposed to be going back to the 1970s in a number of ways, but does Alistair Darling really need to grow Denis Healey's eyebrows too?!

The Trials of Alistair Darling

Alistair Darling's INTERVIEW in The Guardian this morning is more interesting for the tone of what he said, rather than actually what he said. Reading it, the feeling you got was of someone who had given up the ghost - who knew the game was up and was just going through the motions. The picture, by Murdo Macleod, accompanying the interview sends out one message: "We're doomed".

Tellingly, before the interview started, this is what his press adviser [Catherine Macleod] said to him...

"Now Alistair," Catherine tells him firmly when eventually we sit down for the interview, "tell her everything. Make sure you tell her everything."

What an astonishing thing to say. She's effectively saying, go on, dish the dirt, and don't worry about that the man in Number Ten might think - save your own reputation.

The contents of the interview have been reported ad nauseum elsewhere so I won't go into too much detail here, beyond saying that it is extraordinary that a Chancellor discovers how bad a shape we are in from reading the FT, rather than from Treasury officials.

Two other points. He absolutely dismisses talk of a reshuffle. This is fighting talk, as I don't recall a Minister ever doing something like that in such stark terms. Normally, the line would be "it's for the Prime Minister to decide". Darling said this...

"Frankly, if you had a reshuffle just now, I think the public would say, Who are they anyway? You name me a reshuffle that ever made a difference to a government, actually." Brown, he points out, had to make ministerial changes in January, following Peter Hain's resignation. "And you can't be chopping and changing people that often. I mean, undoubtedly at some stage before the end of the parliament he will want to do a reshuffle, but I'm not expecting one imminently. I do not think there will be a reshuffle."

I suppose his 'get-out' is the word imminently, as the consensus seems to be that it now won't be carried until until after the Labour conference, but even so, it is still an extraordinary stance for a senior minister to take.

Secondly, it is interesting to note his acpocalyptic description of the state of the economy, as the worst in 60 years. This contrasts with what Gordon Brown has been saying rather starkly. If the economy is in its worst state since World War II (a description which I think is utter rubbish, for what it's worth), people will understandably ask who is to blame. They might accept that the global economic situation is partly to blame, but they will ask why our economy is in recession when the US economy continues to grow at 3%, and why the Pound is sliding against every other major currency.

My overall impression from this interview was a man with the weight of the world on his shoulders who hasn't got a clue what to do next. He sounded like a businessman who knows his company is about to go bankrupt, and cannot come up with a Plan B.

The Public Humiliation of Alistair Darling

I have just watched Alistair Darling's humiliation by Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. He looked diminished and appeared to be a man not on top of his subject. His body language and mannerisms betrayed a lack of inner steel and a lack of self confidence. This was a man at the end of his political tether. And all because of a massive error of judgement by his predecessor - the man who only a few weeks ago assured us that it would cost "substantially less than a billion to put right".

Grant Thornton: Darling Fails the Lowest Paid

I post this press release from Grant Thornton without comment...

Basic rate taxpayers benefit by £120 while low income earners on £7,455 remain £32.40 worse off. Leading business and financial adviser, Grant Thornton, says the Chancellor's announcement to raise personal allowances to offset losses to low income earners by the abolition of the 10p rate will still leave some low income earners worse off, while benefiting all basic rate taxpayers under 65 to the tune of £120.

Francesca Lagerberg, head of Grant Thornton's national tax office, says although it is pleasing to see the government, having blundered on this decision from the outset, moving quickly to clean up the mess created for low income earners. However, she is concerned that raising personal allowances by £600 (to £6,035) is not targeting all those affected.

"While the Chancellor's plan offers a solution to the political problem it does not offer full compensation to those worst hit by the abolition of the 10p rate, as there are still some who will spend the 2008/09 tax year worse off," she says. "Furthermore, and rubbing further salt into the wound of those low income earners who have not been helped by today's announcement, is the fact that a large number of middle income earners will benefit from the raising of the personal allowance by £120 as well*."

"The Chancellor has delivered an essentially unfunded early Christmas present to a large number of UK workers, but failed to undo its mistake for around 1.1 million low income households." Lagerberg says many UK workers will be up-beat about the announcement expecting an additional and unplanned boost to their income, but those earning £7,455 will still be £32.40 in arrears come the end of the 2008/09 tax year.

The Biggest By-Election Bribe in History?

Alistair Darling promised all low paid workers £120 each this afternoon - apart from the 1.1 million who they won't be able to trace, of course. The cost of his patch up is a massive £2.7 billion, which presumably will all be on the 'never never'.

I seem to recall that Barbara Castle promised to build a bridge over the Humber during a Hull by election campaign in the late 1960s. That pales into insignificance beside this. The trouble is that it has already been discounted by the people it affects. It's a bit like the 75p pension rise issue. The situation was irretrievable after the original announcement was made.

PS Don't I remember Alistair Darling saying his review of the 10 tax decision will last "as long as it takes" and "we won't play politics with this"? Just asking.

Alistair Darling Knifes Brown in the Back

Bloomberg is carrying an astonishing interview given by Alistair Darling while on a trip to China. He's effectiovely attacked Gordon Brown and told him to "sharpen up" his act. We all know what happens when Prime Ministers and Chancellors fall out. The Bloomberg report states...

Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Labour government must "sharpen'' its political program and way of communicating to revive its popularity with British voters, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said. We have got to make sure that in other areas we sharpen ourselves up, that we have a clear message of what we are about," Darling said in an interview today in Chongqing, China. Darling is the most senior member of the Brown's ruling Labour Party to call for a change in tactics since opinion polls showed the administration's support slipping behind the Conservative opposition. Labour lawmakers including former Home Secretary David Blunkett and Greg Pope have questioned Brown's decision to raise taxes on the poorest wage earners. With house prices falling and mortgage lenders choking off loans to consumers, Conservatives are making inroads in undermining Brown's record on the economy.

"All governments and parties go through difficult patches," Darling said. "This is a time when we should remember why we stand for government, the purpose of being in government."

Quite an incredible thing to say, for the government's second most senior minister. Without realising it he has given the game away. They only want to be in power for power's sake, wiuthout the faintest idea of what to do with it.

Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne has been quick to stick the knife in...

“This is an unprecedented attack on the Prime Minister by his most senior cabinet colleague, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Even Gordon Brown never criticised Tony Blair in public. What started as anonymous briefings from backbenchers has now burst into the open with a public attack on Gordon Brown from the second most important person in the government. If the government is fighting itself, how can it fight for Britain?”

Quiz of the Day

Do you ...

a) Believe Alistair Darling who maintains that the economy will continue to grow at up to 2.25% this year

or

b) Believe the IMF who say growth will be no more than 1.6%


What is it with Labour governments and the IMF? :)

Tories Exploit Labour Confusion over Beer Tax

Click on image to enlarge

These are beer mats produced by CCHQ to exploit the divisions which are appearing over Labour's tax policies. Anyone gotr an idea for the 10p tax rate abolition?

Top Ten Lines Not in Darling's Budget

10. Tax Cuts, you want tax cuts? I'll show you tax cuts.
9. Let them eat cake.
8. You know last year's budget? We made it up.
7. And for my fifth reannouncement...
6. Iain Dale's new Audi will be exempt from the new £1,000 band of road tax.
5. And this year the real rate of inflation is 12% and rising.
4. We believe in the Laffer Curve.
3. And after the last ten years, it's been left to me to pick up the pieces.
2. See that wall over there? That's the one I'm going to let Northern Rock go to.
1. Do you seriously think I wrote this pile of crap?

Is Northern Rock Ron Worth £90k a Month?

Spot the conflict...

"Boards need to ask themselves, 'Are we behaving reasonably? … If you're leaning over the fence talking to your next-door-neighbour, can you justify what you've done?... "There is absolutely nothing wrong with giving somebody a reward but at the present time when people are going through these difficulties that's something the boards have got to look at,"
Alistair Darling, Daily Telegraph, 16 February 2008

The FT reports today that Ron Sandler is going to be paid £90K PER MONTH - a salary agreed by Alistair Darling.

Time will tell whether he's worth it.

Darling Humiliated by Northern Rock Nationalisation

Even the most devout Labour spinner cannot disagree that the nationalisation of Northern Rock represents a total humiliation for the government. Alistair Darling's dithering and uncertainty have made even Gordon Brown look like a man of decision. I do not trust the government to run a whelk stall, let alone a bank. And they will be doing it with our - my (!) - money. God knows what hit the taxpayer will take now. And it will get even murkier when the government is sued for mismanaging the whole process, as it surely will be. The whole tri-partite regulatory system, which the Tories warned Gordon Brown would fail when he set it up, has been a disaster. And we're the ones picking up the bill. Plus ca change...