Thursday, May 01, 2008

Election Night Live Blog

3.24 Just a bit of fun. BBC projects Con 394 seats, Lab 169 and LibDem 59 if these reuslts were translated into a general election.

3.06 Conservatives predicted to take Basingstoke & Deane. Previous was NOC (C:30/others:30).

All out election because of boundary changes, but it looks like Conservatives will get between 33 and 36 seats.

3.05 Alison Halford elected as Conservative councillor for Ewloe, Flintshire. Alison is a former Labour member of the Welsh Assembly (1999-2003 term). She defected to the Conservatives in 2006.

3.04 About to come on your TV screens again. Hmmm. Perhaps I should rephrase that.

2.52 Just had a text from a Shadow Cabinet member (not DD!) commenting on my attack on Michael Portillo. It reads: "Fucking right. Well done you." I'm Iain Dale, and I approved this message.

2.51 Cons gain two seats from Lab in Dyfan ward, Vale of Glamorgan.

2.46 Am basking in the warm afterglow of slagging off Portillo live on national TV. What an unbelievable performance from him tonight. he should bloody well remember he wouldn't be where he is without the Tory Party. All he's done this evening is read a book called LOST BOYS. he hasn't talked to a single person at this event apart from Fraser Nelson and Polly Toynbee. Unbelievable.

2.16 BNP gain a seat from Labour in Thurrock.

2.14 Second Tory gain in Chorley. In the Labour marginal of South Ribble there are now 45 Tories and four Labour councillors.

2.13 Three Line Whip reports the sad news that Kelvin Mackenzie didn't win. A nation mourns.

2.12 After 72 of 159 councils declared

CON +7 councils, LAB -2 councils, LD no change, NOC -5 councils.

CON +103 councillors, LAB -88 councillors, LD -3 councillors.

2.11 Sorry, got sidetracked chatting to Emily.

1.52 Conservatives win Rumney ward in Cardiff from Labour, winning two seats

1.51 The Conservatives have gained a seat in Barnsley!!!!!!!!!

1.51 Two eighteen year old Conservative councillors elected in Southampton.

1.49 Ewan Spence is a very fair and far-sighted man.

1.42 Two Tory gains in Flintshire. One gain in Cambridge. Greens gain a seat in Cambridge too.

1.40 Birmingham Tories have made 7 gains - just taken Longbridge aka home of Rover and Red Robo, not really Tory territory - Cons have also slashed Labour majorities. Gary Sambrook, aka Brummie Tory Blog, the youngest Tory candidate @ 18 lost by 80 votes in solid Labour territoy. Lib Dems could push Labour into third place in the city.

1.38 Sky have just captioned Gisela Stewart as "Conservative" Do they know something we don't ?

1.27 Our friends in the North

• Gained 5 seats in Sunderland

• Gained seats in Chester-le-Street and North Durham

• Gained 4 seats in Tameside - James Purnell would lose his seat based on tonight’s results

• Gained 4 seats in Wigan

• Gained seat in Bolton

• Gained 2 seats in Bury

• Gained 2 seats in Carlisle

• Gained seat in Wirral

• Gained seat in Halton

1.20 77% on Guido want me to dress up as a cowboy! As if a serious political commentator would do such a thing. Oh, hello Jeremy...

1.19 From Caroline Hunt: "If Clemency and Emily made a porn film they'd be rich beyond their wildest dreams I suspect".

1.17 Labour is predicted to have a 24% share of the vote. Their worst ever. BBC calling Tories on 44%. Perhaps now we will have an end to the "Tories should be doing better" brigade.

1.17 “Gordon Brown has had his Life on Mars moment. Hhe went to sleep in 2008 and today he’s waking up with support back to the worst his party has seen since records began in 1973.” So said a Tory spokesman.

1.13 Where's Cleggy?

1.11 Conservatives officially predict a 43 per cent vote share.

1.05 Jeremy Vine seems to be the fall guy of the evening... This email from a correspondent is typical... "Whilst watching the local Election results with great interested my husband and I are very irritated by the way in which Jeremy Vine is setting out the results. Why can't we have the statistics done in an adult way instead of making us feel as if we are being talked down to and treating us like children. We don't need him walking around in a thick coat in simulated snow thank you very much, all we want is for us to see exactly what is happening around the Country. This type of reporting statistics has got worse and worse over the years."

1.04 Just been having a threeway (chat) with Polly Toynbee and Dizzy, who sent me a 1965 photo of Polly. She was most amused.

1.03 3 Con gains so far in plymouth - predicting 5 in total

0.55 Another email: "Hi Iain, loyal Tory voter (always by proxy though) and a military officer, but had a great day having taken leave from duty to vote personally for the very first time in my life at the age of 40. Great feeling putting that cross in the 'right' place on the ballot paper. Voted in North Tyneside and hope it goes well. Keep up the great work.

0.50 Just received by email.. Hi Iain, Just read your post about someone wanting to join the Tory party. I myself joined at he start of the year (always been a Tory voter) and I am a born and bred Scot who still lives and works in Scotland (don't give up on us). Please remind those you write to about the Tory party's new ways of showing support short of becoming a full member. We've had the ministrations of Lord Ashcroft and the example of Senator Obama to show how our party should be growing through the netroots and developing a broader donation base. Cheers. D

0.48 - Both Labour and Liberal Democrat group leaders in Southampton lose their seats to Conservatives.

- Marginal constituency: Clatterbridge ward, Wirral council, in Wirral South constituency, goes Conservative off Liberal Democrats.

- Marginal constituency: Cambridge ward on Sefton Council in Southport constituency, goes Conservative with 200 majority. Last year, we were 400 behind Liberal Democrats.

- Conservatives gain Radcliffe ward in Bury.

- Labour MP, Tony Wright, chairman of the Public Administration Select Committee, calls for individual electoral registration, warning of electoral fraud in ethnic minority communities.

0.42 And yes, that really was Emily... Oooh, about to get on screen again. Stand by, fans

0.41 FROM EMILY MAITLIS: i cant write this properly without leaning into iAINS CROTCH> WHICH IS HIGHLY ENBARRASSIN G

0.37 The Tory council gain in Nuneaton mans they control the Council for the first time since 1973.

0.36 Conservatives gain another seat, Quinton, in Birmingham.

0.35 LibDem council leader in Pendle loses seat to Conservatives

0.34 Labour now third in Ben Bradshaw's Exeter seat after two Tory gains from Labour.

0.33 Another Tory Gain in Norwich. The last time the Tories had 5 seats was in 1968 I think... The gain was in Catton Grove, the ward I stood in, in 1985!

0.30 Dizzy has a story about Boris involving marital aids...

0.29 - Conservatives win control of Nuneaton & Bedworth (was LAB)

- Conservatives win control of Elmbridge council (was NOC). One of the wards that we won was Walton Central - The successful Tory candidate was 20 years old, and wasn't even born last time the Conservatives controlled the council.

- Liberal Democrats predict they will be the largest party in Cheltenham.

0.27 Guido's Live Chat is, er, well, go and see for yourself. But do come back!

0.24 From the comments: hi im 19 just voted in my 1st election.1st of all i h8 labour.i did vote BNP. in years to come i want to be put first in houses and health care etc. but there are millions of other people to think about i know this. just wish people born in england got 1st choice. tell me why in furture i should give my surport to torys and not bnp.

0.23 Six Tory gains from Labour in Sunderland. Yes, you read that right. Sunderland.

0.23 To those of you who are outraged by the BBC Homo Erectus graphics, just wait till you see the ones on Gordon Brown. The Labour Party will explode with rage.

0.20 Conservative Party is now officially predicting 200 gains. Their initial briefings suggested 120, which I thought was about bang on the money.

0.17 Just had an email from someone who will be getting a very nice email from me tomorrow: "hi i am a yorkshire man who now lives in the wilds of essex and am tired of this labour goverment and its unelected pm, its old school communist mayor (red ken have a word!!! ) i am 34 married with a daughter and for the first time i feel engaged by politics, I am angry i feel mis-represented and want a better life for my family. I belive that the conservative party would do that for me better than the others and want to get involved how do i join the party? and get involved? Many thanks. E. D (a normal working class man who cannot belive the level of betrayal by the labour party)"

I am getting a lot of these at the moment.

0.16 EXCLUSIVE: CONSERVATIVES GAIN MAIDSTONE FROM NOC/LIBDEMS AFTER TWO GAINS (this assumes no Tory losses later)

0.14 Con Swing in Edgbaston is 10%.

0.13 Con gain Brockmoor ward in Labour heartland in Dudley by 68 votes. Bye bye Ian Pearson. Hello Chris Kelly.

0.13 Tory gain from LibDems in Maidstone. One more needed to gain the council.

0.12 Another Tory gain in Birmingham, Longbridge.

0.11 Conservatives gain Bowthorpe Ward in Norwich. Antony Little is an absolute hero.

0.07 Clemency Burton-Hill has just come over for a snog. You know, if things were different...

0.06 Michael Portillo is here ... sitting on a sofa, talking to no one ... reading a book. I shall try to see what it is in a minute.

0.05 Intimidation in Bolton. Nothing to do with Gary Megson, I am assured.

0.02 Yay, Polly Toynbee is in da house!

0.01 Croydonian reports a serious Tory effort in, er, Broadwater Farm!

23.52 - Conservatives pick up another seat from Labour in Southend (CON). Blaine Robin, former CCHQ's Social Action Manager wins seat - and first black councillor in Southend. Ward has never been won by Conservatives.

- Conservatives take seat off Labour in Eric Pickles' Brentwood.

- Liberal Democrats report that they have 'taken control' of Hull - however, council was already LibDem controlled.

- Labour hold Sunderland council, but Conservatives make second confirmed gain in Sunderland.

- Conservatives gain seat from Liberal Democrats in Halton (LAB council)

- Conservatives won have 3 gains in DC's area of West Oxfordshire.

23.51 Tory PPC Deirdre Alden wins seat in Birmingham Edgbaston by 1600 majority - best result there since 1992. Tories expect to gain 6 seats in Birmingham tonight. Bye bye Gisela Stuart. Best defect now, love.

23.49 Coventry is looking better than expected for the Tories. I had thought we were going to lose control, but we may just scrape it.

23.47 This is the row of shame at City Hall tonight. I'm the one on the left :)




23.41 Emily gets the programme going.

23.39 LibDems take 5 Labour seats in Hull to take overall control.


23.26 Somebody just told me the caricature of me on the BBC website looks like DI Burnside... Judge for yourself. Think I prefer the GQ pic... Luke Akehurst and Alix Mortimer are the other two sitting alongside me, blogging their little hearts away.

23.25 Another Tory gain, this time in Chorley from Labour. Con majority 150.

23.24 From a correspondent in Coventry: "I sincerely hope BBC coverage of the local elections is better than we are getting from the BBC local radio here in Coventry (BBC Coventry & Warwickshire). They have two "Political Experts" one a former Chief Exec of the City Council, the other who appears to be a self proclaimed expert on politics, Vincent McKee who just happens to be a Lib-Dem candidate in the city elections, who is getting far more air-time to promote his parties policies views etc, than any other of the parties. Why on earth they deemed it necessary to this Lib-Dem candidate to give us his opinion constantly is beyond me. No one else is there from any other of the main parties to commentate in the same way. I have called and complained and was told he is there not as a Lib-Dem, but as a Political expert!! Yeah pull the other one!"

23.21 First Conservative gain of the evening - from an Independent in Swansea. Go Wales!

23.16 A big shout for Islington Conservatives who have been up in Chingford this evening. Their knocking up efforts seem to have borne fruit. I am told that turnout up there is in the high seventies.

23.13 From London Tory: "I arrived to take over my telling slot for the Conservatives at about 8.10am and very shortly thereafter an irate gentleman came out complaining about the officers writing the polling numbers on the ballot papers, asking me and the one other teller present to confirm that what they were doing was wrong. We did so and the other teller, who was the Lib Dem peer Lord Oakshott (being a Tory naturally I deferred to rank!), went in and spoke to the very inexperienced officers administering the polling station and they agreed that they must have been mistaken in doing what they had been. They said that their instructions told them to write the polling number "alongside" the ballot paper number and they had thought that meant on the ballot paper. Oakshott explained it meant on the separate list. The irate voter then went off and said he was going to call the BBC etc. I must admit that I thought they wouldn't be interested, but clearly they were. I also think it is fairly outrageous if the 14 votes are rendered invalid when it was not the voters who had made the "distinguishing mark".

Now here is my only real scoop from having been there: I am fairly sure that the vote of Lord (Matthew) Oakshott himself was one of the 14 votes supposedly to be rendered invalid! I know this because once the irate other voter had complained Lord O. remembered that they had put the number on his own voting paper when he had voted a short time before but had not thought about it at the time. I do not think we will have lost even a second preference from him but early voters in a place like Kennington (these were in the first hour and a quarter) tend to be disproportionately Tory (City workers etc who go to work early). The polling station concerned is probably a fairly even three way split between the main parties (Lib Dem held the Ward until two years ago (Princes), then it went Labour, but we have been working it hard as we have been a very good third in a constituency where mostly we are a poor third). Anyway, I look forward to the Lib Dem peer in voting irregularity shock story from you.


23.09 Respect fliers in polling booths in Whitechapel telling people how to vote. Presiding officer not bothered.

23.06 So Labour say they can't do better than 25% and the Tories must get 47%. Ben Brogan reports Tory guffaws. For the record I stick by my 41% prediction for the Tories. If they get above that the champagne corks can truly pop.

23.02 It would be rude not to mention Emily Maitlis's BBC Election blog, which she will be writing in between spots on BBC1.

22.55 News from the Former Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire: "Am in Gleadless Valley Ward in Sheffield: I was told at the polling station that there were 541 votes by 21.20. Given the electorate in the ward is 13,703 (according to the Council website), that implies a very low turnout (even if there are half a dozen polling stations)... Only the Lib Dems seemed to be campaigning here (and hard) despite the fact that the Council has currently got 41 Labour Councillors and 39 Lib Dems. Sounds like Labour might lose the capital of 'The Soviet Republic of South Yorkshire'."

22.53 From an Islington correspondent just after 10pm: Just voted at st peter and st paul on compton st. Left list campaigning inside polling station and fliers left in polling booth. Complained to presiding officer. He was not at all bothered

22.46 News from a senior political contact in Wales: Tories will make gains in Pembrokeshire, Conwy and Powys because independent tories are standing as official Conservatives for the first time so even without winning new seats they will be up considerably. They also should do well in Vale of Glamorgan. Turnout seems reasonably high in areas where Labour are not strong - West and Mid Wales (Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire, Powys) but seems low in the valleys. RCT (Rhondda cynon taf) and Caerphilly. Caerphilly will probably go NOC. Labour will keep RCT majority. Ceredigion might be interesting with Plaid getting close to majority but probably not quite making it. Interesting for Westminster seat where Lib dems currently hold majority of some 200.

22.34 ConservativeHome has called the mayoral race for Boris. I'm Iain Dale and I approve this message.

22.32 Am now ensconced on the 9th floor of City Hall with the lovely Emily Maitlis opposite me. I have just taught her how to twitter. I don't think her life will ever be the same. She has just been censored by the resident BBC killjoy (Joanna, you know who you are) for using a little known pornographic term in her first blogpost. Fluffer, anyone?

142 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mmm.. saucy !

Anonymous said...

Iain - please ask Alix (I assume she's there too) if she ever watched football with Mr Blair - her milk-snatching memory has familiar ring to it...

Anonymous said...

I'd hate to be Gordon's fluffer. How does Carter cope? I guess he just thinks of the money.

Iain Dale said...

Alix says she is most amused at the assumption and very sorry if it upset you!

Anonymous said...

Iain--
What are you hearing about turnout in London and elsewhere, especially up North and in Wales?
Thanks!

Alex said...

Alix Mortimer: Political confession: I wasn't remotely interested in politics as a student

Nothing's changed then, still a Lib Dem.

Anonymous said...

I think you'll find RCT had a Plaid majority last time round. Twas considered a shocker...

Anonymous said...

I'm sure you'll be keeping us up all night, Iain :-)

Peter from Putney said...

A very cruel caricature of you Ian, heavy jowels and virtually no hair.

Anonymous said...

Oops! Sorry. RCT has been Labour controlled for the last four years. It was Plaid before that. I suspect it might swing Plaid again.

Anonymous said...

RE Anon, 10:55...

Plaid Cymru lost their majority in Rhondda Cynon Taf in 2004, by a considerable amount.

Donal Blaney said...

The breach of the Representation of the People Act 1983 in Islington might lead to an election petition being brought...

Anonymous said...

August 31, 2007 4:46 PM , Laurence Boyce said...
"Anyway, all I really want to say is that if Boris Johnson becomes Mayor of London, I shall kiss Donal Blaney's arse."

I hope that this means we have seen the last of Laurence Boyce on this blog.

Anonymous said...

Iain, the caricature of you on the BBC site makes you look like DI Burnside!

Anonymous said...

Things are looking good in Brum!

Anonymous said...

Well done! We need you! Dispatches from the front line....

Anonymous said...

Iain,

Regarding the figures. I'll be like last year when that awful Blears woman was rabbiting on about how the Tories needed to win 500+ seats and that they weren't going to do it. 900+ says otherwise. I just wish she hadn't gone back to her hovel when those massive Tory gains started coming in later on.

Anonymous said...

Tories must now get 47% for this to be a good night for them? Oh, boy!
If this is anything like the last round of council elections when the Tories first had to clear 600, then 700, and then 800, and then 1,000 to get any respect, it can mean only one thing: the Tories will get 46% of the vote and pick up more than 150 council seats--and be declared the night's losers by the BBC.

Old BE said...

Iain, sorry to plug, but I have a thing about the Durning Library thing on my blog...

@molesworth_1 said...

Have you seen the 'cartoons' of you bloggers on Em's page?

Anonymous said...

Re: Lord Oakshott

I didn't think peers were allowed to vote?

Anonymous said...

Vincent McKee is a published political science writer - I've seen at least one article of his in Parliamentary Affairs. I can't say how far he's able to give detached commentary, but his credentials as an expert are reasonably strong.

Anonymous said...

Oh, come along Dale - there aren't enough 'knocking up' jokes here for my liking.. Perhaps you could persuade Ms Maitlis to oblige..

Anonymous said...

Take 47% for the Tories. 25% for Labour, and give the Lib Dems 23% and plug them into one of those nifty--and habit-forming--sites that calculate election results. Yes, I know it's only council elections. Yes, I know, it's probably not right to extrapolate a few council races into General Election results. But, to see one site predict a Tory majority of more than 200 seats, an utter Labour rout in England, and big Tory gains in Wales, well, it is an amazing tonic for the soul.

Anonymous said...

Iain--There's a picture of you and your fellow bloggers on the BBC blog. You're looking good!

Anonymous said...

Ehh Mam - 'e's on Telly !!!

Anonymous said...

Hello all my election prediction - Boris Johnson to win London mayoral race, con to take 130 councils with a 43 share.

Anonymous said...

Are you getting a vibe that this will be a bad night for Labour ?...

Anonymous said...

Must run. Here on the American Eastern Seaboard, it's 1841--and time to run back home for dinner. Sorry to dash out on all the fun that I'm sure Iain and Company are about to have. Enjoy!

Giles Marshall said...

I'm not sure McKee has always been a Lib Dem, although if he is one of their candidates now he shouldn't really be on as an objective 'expert'. But he has written one or two political articles in largely unread periodicals, and I even remember him interviewing me about TRG for a book that remains unpublished. Odd chap, though.....

Anonymous said...

Tessa Jawell "I dont feel ant forboading" ha yeah right they all know there in for a whipping

Anonymous said...

Tessa Jowell looks bored already !!

Chatshow Charlie is in the house - although I'm not sure he realises where he is...

Unknown said...

I can't believe you are waring THAT tie again !!!!

Anonymous said...

Such a contrast between the serious, interesting and sensible stuff on this blog and on the bbc website compared with the ghastly, pathetic, trivial cartoon-strip, bad-jokey contributions of Jeremy Vine on BBC1. Just hope they don't turn to him too often but having spent the money on the set I fear they will

Anonymous said...

Iain, could you blog in different entries, it makes it easier to follow and comment at the same time. Cheers!

Ralph Hancock said...

Is that picture the first public view of the New Slimline Iain? Looking good. (Shame about the fat cartoon.)

Anonymous said...

I'm so exited. When is the next result expected?

Anonymous said...

Tories take Lib Dem seat (Milton ward) in Portsmouth...

Anonymous said...

Luke Akehurst looks like a trendier Simon Heffer. Not that much trendier, though.

I'm not at work tonight and it feels a bit weird.

Unknown said...

Iain, Hull is a Lib Dem gain as it was lost by virtue of a defection (you should know this - the Tories made a song and daance about it as he defected to the Tories).

The Military Wing Of The BBC said...

Unbiased BBC commentator challenge:

Will that Canadian "unbiased" "expert" be able to say anything, and I do mean anything positive about the Conservative party's results at any time this morning?

Special prize for 1st positive comment.

Anonymous said...

it will be interesting to see how the cons do up here in yourkshire

Anonymous said...

WORCESTER NO CHANGE DALE !!!!!

IT ISNT GONNA HAPPEN IAIN, IT ANIT GONNA HAPPEN !!!!

Anonymous said...

Nice tie, Iain! Any details on BNP? Don't want them winning anywhere tonight.

Anonymous said...

Iain, whats your opinion on the breakdown of London voters today?
Have people been voting issues, values, party-based or personality?

Do you think the introduction of Johnson into the race changed the voters reasons for how they voted?

Anonymous said...

what... Edbaston in Bham. come Iain play with a straight bat.

as a ward it has always been Tory

but as MP it takes in parts of ladywwod ans bearwood... solid lab

Anonymous said...

Im not getting a sense of Lab Meltdown

Anonymous said...

Iain, whats your opinion on the breakdown of London voters today?
Have people been voting issues, values, party-based or personality?

Do you think the introduction of Johnson into the race changed the voters reasons for how they voted?

Anonymous said...

Yourre calling it for Boris.

Even before a single vote is counted

WHAT are you a Florida Republican

WE dont CALL elections Iain.. Get your head out of McCain Arse

Anonymous said...

10% swing to Tories in Bolton according to ConcervativeHome

Anonymous said...

What the f*ck is Jeremy Vine doing ?

Homo erectus !? Oohhh..

Matron Maitlis, a sponge down please...

Anonymous said...

Got to say, old Jeremy is enjoying his CGI... he's spent far too long on Radio Two...

Anonymous said...

Could you get a message through to the BBC studios to shoot Jeremy Vine?
The man's puerile, ranty and shouty.

Anonymous said...

What the f*ck is Jeremy Vine doing ?

Homo erectus !? Oohhh..

Matron Maitlis, a sponge down please...

@molesworth_1 said...

When is the earliest we can expect any news on the Mayoral election? I live 350 miles from the capital, & didn't get to vote today, so my interest is purely speculative...hem-hem...

Anonymous said...

Look North in Yorkshire are saying 2 seats have been Barnsley to independants. Cons win West Linsey.

The Military Wing Of The BBC said...

what is that Canadians name?

Anonymous said...

We are romping home in BIRMINGHAM - 5 gains, 2 recounts underway in non-traditional Tory wards, whopping majorities in all of our seats!

Waiting to find out if Brummie Tory Blogger has won Kingstanding ward from Labour.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm... so far your blogging style isn't brilliant.
It seems to be a mixture of bad half-baked un-confirmed facts and strange one-word opinions.

Do you think you could start actually blogging, perhaps some opinions in more than one word, a little party and personal perspective, some discussion would be good.

Ohh and heed "11:54 PM" advice, blog in seperate posts otherwise it'll be unreadable by morning.

Just some light criticism there, hope its ok!

The Military Wing Of The BBC said...

Was that "the rise of Tory man" graphic supposed to be funny?

Was it unbiased?

Oh well at least the Conservative party is given the microphone with that well known mainstream commentator eh, Micheal Portillo.

Anonymous said...

Just seen Portillo being interviewed by Emily at City Hall. He was being quite bitchy about Boris. I think some people touted Portillo as a candidate. I wonder now if he regrets not having the bottle to stand (probably assumed Ken would be a shoe-in) and is now sticking the boot into someone that had the guts.

BNP 1st said...

hi im 19 just voted in my 1st election.1st of all i h8 labour.
i did vote BNP. in years to come i want to be put first in houses and health care etc. but there are millions of other people to think about i know this. just wish people born in england got 1st choice. tell me why in furture i should give my surport to torys and not bnp

Liz said...

I'm just back from a bar in Cambridge, where the Green Party candidate and some rosette-wearing friends were at the next table. They all looked incredibly morose. This may have been to do with the fact that they were only drinking apple juice, but I suspect it has more to do with their perception of how they'd done at the polls today.

Anonymous said...

I have calculated labour seem to be losing 9 seats every 400 council seats. So surely that puts them on course for 90 loss. With 4000 seats up for grabs. Please broadcast my brave prediction.

@molesworth_1 said...

What time are the Brown graphics scheduled for? Only I'm up at 6am for work...chiz

The Military Wing Of The BBC said...

But "Homo eructus" is being shown at 12.15

The Gordon Brown one will go out when no one is watching.

Anonymous said...

tessa flanneling and floundering !!!

Anonymous said...

CON gain Erdington Birmingham from Labour - majority 1491! Thats in Sion Simon MP seat.

Anonymous said...

Great blogging, enhances the TV coverage... i'll be back!

The Military Wing Of The BBC said...

Conspiracy Theory No 57

Iain - I bet your blog is experiencing "technology" problems inside the BBC studios.

Am I right?

Anonymous said...

Don't dangle this carrot..

"just wait till you see the ones on Gordon Brown. The Labour Party will explode with rage."

and leave us on the edge of our seats in anticipation..give us just a hint..

Anonymous said...

Norfolk Blogger - I love that tie! It is totally Iain and he looks very cute in it.

Anonymous said...

Con gain Quinton (Birmingham)from Lab

Anonymous said...

Five seats for "Local Conservatives" in Sunderland!

Anonymous said...

Iain - Can you impress upon Emily Maitlis how interesting and amusing she is, compared to the Deadly Dull Dimbleby and the increasingly out of his head bizarre Jeremy Vine..

Could you not organise a 'coup d'etat' to take control from David Dimblebore ??

Anonymous said...

Please publish my brave prediction of a 90 - 100 seat loss for labour. I have worked it out they lost 9 after 400 seats had been counted and 14 after 600. I want credit for my prediction.

@molesworth_1 said...

I hope you're keeping an eye on Guido's chat widget - it's the coolest thing on the web.... poor old Jeremy Vine...

Anonymous said...

BIRMINGHAM: Con gain Stockland Green and slash Labours Kingstanding majority to 80! Kingstanding was being contested by Brummie Tory Blog - 18 year old Gary Sambrook

Anonymous said...

Portaloo proves once again what a horrible little man he is, and how lucky we were to lose him.

Liz said...

Iain - given you're actually in the building, is there anything you can do to stop Jeremy Vine? (Suggest using your laptop as a bludgeon.)

Anonymous said...

Where is Emily Maitlis's Twitter Page?

Anonymous said...

Mr BNP supporter. Your leader denied the holocaust. Your party is evil.

Adrian said...

Amazing - Tories within a whisker of beating Labour in Kingstanding, here in Brum.

Prodicus said...

Behave yourselves, you two. Tsk.

Adrian said...

I can only bear watching the BBC show for three minutes at a time. I think the three-politicians-round-a-table format should be banished for ever.

Anonymous said...

Weoley (Brum) CON GAIN

Anonymous said...

i thought the lib dem jeremy vine texan shootout was good stuff actually

Adrian said...

Brum again. More Labour devastation. Graham Green has (at the umpteenth attempt) won back Oscott ward for the Tories. This is my ward and I feel a bit sad for John Cotton, who's been a great councillor and led a good Labour team in a ward that otherwise would've gone Tory years ago.

Anonymous said...

I am hearing from a trustworthy source at the heart of the Boris camp, that unofficial exit polls are putting Boris 2 points behind Ken on 1st prefs. Insufficient polling data to say how accurate the figure is, but word has it that Boris is very very worried. Turnout heavy in inner city boroughs as well as in Tory heartlands - that's what has Boris so downhearted.

Dominic Kelly

Unknown said...

Why is jeremy Vine acting so stupidly? Do the BBC and the government truly expect that making people act stupidly will increase the appeal of politics? It only cheapens it more.

Anonymous said...

I notice you've not mentioned the Rochdale result, where the only gain is Liberal and the Conservative Party remains insignificant.

Adrian said...

A bit late, but Bham council has Adrian Goldberg doing a live show at http://www.birminghamelections.org.uk/

Anonymous said...

Does anyone else get the feeling that we're watching the implosion of the Labour Party?

Unknown said...

I'm 18, and feel that the Tory party has the most to offer me; i joined this year, and although studying history i know a fair amount about Margaret Thatcher's 'regime', i think David Cameron has done a fantastic job at turning around the party and putting it back into contention once more.

Unknown said...

With all the deserved negativity with Labour these days, I can see a good result for the Tories coming up, and about time too.

Anonymous said...

OSCOTT (BRUM)CON gain from Labour - if my counting is correct thats 6 tory gains in Brum, amazing!

Richard said...

Who told Jeremy Vine a pink shirt and jeans was a good idea? As for the silly graphics and accents....please!

Let's keep it technical and factual BBC.

Anonymous said...

Longbridge CON Gain - 7 Tory Gains in Brum - we know have 50 cllrs in Brum! We are killing Labour here.

Anonymous said...

1 gain from LD and 1 loss to LD in Winchester so far

Anonymous said...

Hooray! Looks like Labour are on the way to losing control in Newport! Finally!

Anonymous said...

it looks like were on track to forfill my prediction of 43 share for cons 200 seats and a win for Boris in london. Labour may be screwed

Anonymous said...

Emily & Clemency + porn film = yes yes yes. I'd pay good money

Unknown said...

Interesting to see that we're making some good returns, but we're not doing as well as we would have liked i think...still, nowhere near finished yet.

Darren said...

I think we whould have another vote should jeremy vine stick to radio?

yes
no

Although im sure the beeb are to blame. There is a reason he is on the radio and now we know why.

Ohh and cmon you tories!

Anonymous said...

The BBC phone line is permanently engaged: so many people ringing up asking Jeremy Vine to STOP NOW!

Anonymous said...

Ed Miliband now on the Beeb, no doubt to start marking out the territory for a leadership contest...

Anonymous said...

It's way past my bedtime, but it's just great to see such exciting results. Enjoying the blogging - hope you're having fun!

Jill

Anonymous said...

I'm a 19 year old and I'm absolutely shaking my head at the comment and views held by the fellow 19 year olf BNP supporter.
I voted for the first time today at 8am, near to Whitechapel. Later on in the day, there was a huge tour bus and display from what one would expect to be akin to a Miss World competition. It turned out to be Respect telling people how to vote. Everyone was slightly mesmerised and shocked.

Later on, cars with tannoy speakers were also cruising up and down telling us exactly how to vote: Ken for Mayor / the Respect Candidate / Respect. I'm absolutely disgusted and it's shocking because they are in effect advising a rather illiterate, politically unconcerned community who are heavily influenced by the "stop the war" hoopla.

Anonymous said...

please ask Emily to tuck me into to bed soon...I need top punani soon.
Alternatively get Vine to take his amateur antics to ceebeebies, where they will be more appropriaste

Anonymous said...

Labour have lost one seat to Independents in South Tyneside so far, but look likely to gain one from Progressives in a recount.

Anonymous said...

That Tory man just on now - defending Boris - I like him.. what a nice, passionate person he seems to be!

Unknown said...

That national share is summerised by one word: Yes! :)

Anonymous said...

Geoff Hoon: "There is no crisis"

Anonymous said...

National Share = Labour screwed

Anonymous said...

What a disloyal, self-righteous, bitter fraction of a man Portillo is. His performance on the Beeb just now just shows what a lucky escape the country had after he lost his nerve in 1995. Best of luck Boris, you'll need it with people like that on your "side".

Alexander Redpath said...

come on boris can Ken overcome a 20% deficit

Bill Quango MP said...

Right, its 2.35am and Andy Burnham is now almost ready to come out of makeup.

Anonymous said...

"We must listen to the people more.."

We can't shout it any louder. Can't you hear?

We want you to leave. We want you gone. Hear it now?

Anonymous said...

Nice one Iain, Michael Portillo needed to be put in his place. "What planet is he on?" indeed

Michael said...

If Michael Portillo should "remember the party who made him" then maybe he remembers the party that lost him his seat in the 1997 General Election.

Anonymous said...

I heard George Galloway won a London Assembly seat, is that true? I hope it is.

Daily Referendum said...

Is Portillo after a place under Gordon's umbrella? Tw*t! That's an A not an I.

Anonymous said...

Not really hard to see why the Beeb likes Portillo as a "Tory" talking head.

If it isn't him, it'll be Clarke.

Anonymous said...

Quick!

Go and push Toynbee off the balcony.

At least trip her up when she walks past you.

Anonymous said...

I am laughing at the repetition of the "we need to listen to the people" line by the Labour talking heads. What they will be hearing is "We don't want you to govern anymore".

Anonymous said...

hi - amused my quote is on your blog but you haven't got it down right

"Conservatives win control of Elmbridge council (was NOC). One of the wards that we won was Walton Central - The successful Tory candidate was 20 years old, and wasn't even born last time the Conservatives controlled the council."

He was not born the last time a Conservative Councillor was elected in that ward to represent. The last time Elmbridge was Conservative controlled was in 1990.

Bill Quango MP said...

there he is.. my word a poor night for labour but a good one for Max Factor.

and good one for the BBC tonight.
Very Balanced. [they may need to look up that word having had little cause to use it recently]

Anonymous said...

Somebody PLEASE get rid of Jermemy Vine!!! Arrrhhhh!

Anonymous said...

Jesus, Vine again.

Let no one say the Beeb dumbs down...

PS: Eric Pickles is great. Should be used much more often.

Anonymous said...

Iain, Michael Portillo owes nothing to the Tory party. The party lost its collective sanity when it refused to make him leader in 2001 because of petty minded gay-phobia. To add insult to injury they elected instead IDS, the most hopeless man to lead a political party in living memory (and yes, Michael Foot is well within my living memory). So I forgive him if Michael Portillo looks at the Tory party with some disdain.

Unknown said...

Hi!

Mierlo, The Netherlands, here !

Please don't slag off Michael Portillo as you have. He's the best Conservative leader we 'never had.'

The answers he gave when interviewed by Emilly were 100% honest, correct, and unbiased.

It was that lack of bias towards the Tories which seems to have upset you and caused you to get angry. On the Weekly Politics show he is also reknown for his totally honest and unbias opinions.

Regards, Greg Hiller
___________________________________

Unknown said...

Quite agree with the comments on Jeremy Vine. He isn't the slightest bit amusing...just juvenile. The guests, especially Vince Cable looked profoundly embarrassed as Vine was performing.

Anonymous said...

If, as Peter Tatchell has just said, the Tories stole Green ideas, isn't that just an example of recycling?

As far as Michael Portillo is concerned, which Lost Boys was he reading? Not the fantasy novel where the main character has imaginary friends...?

Anonymous said...

I'm off to bed with a slight smile on my face - and why not? As a life long Tory who has been in the doldrums about the party since about 1995, tonight gives me real hope that the Phoenix may be about to arise once more - provided prats like Portillo (who I used to think was really quite good)remember that his fame came from being a Tory - well thanks Michael - you certainly know how to bite the hand that fed you. And as for NU LABOUR - oh how the mighty have fallen and how they protest! I love to see them squirm - Gordon Brown is at last reaping the rewards for his mis-spent last 11 years - he's destroyed the economy (despite what NU LABOUR Spin Doctors say)and now he's destroying the Labour Party because he simply is a dull and indecisive fellow with a charisma bypass. Let' hope good old Boris can complete the rout tomorrow by kicking Ken into touch. He is a bright intelligent chap with new ideas and even if he's prone to the odd gaff or two - so what? London is a world city that needs a bit of livening up - I reckon Boris will be the tonic that my birthplace needs. Bring on the Blues!!!

Anonymous said...

Well done Iain.

Only more good news tomorrow!

Can't wait.

Anonymous said...

Please don't slag off Michael Portillo as you have. He's the best Conservative leader we 'never had.'

The answers he gave when interviewed by Emilly were 100% honest, correct, and unbiased.

It was that lack of bias towards the Tories which seems to have upset you and caused you to get angry. On the Weekly Politics show he is also reknown for his totally honest and unbias opinions.

Regards, Greg Hiller
___________________________________

Scary Biscuits said...

Iain, I missed your dissing of Portillo. Any chance of putting a clip on your blog?

Gregg said...

Am basking in the warm afterglow of slagging off Portillo live on national TV. What an unbelievable performance from him tonight. he should bloody well remember he wouldn't be where he is without the Tory Party. All he's done this evening is read a book called LOST BOYS. he hasn't talked to a single person at this event apart from Fraser Nelson and Polly Toynbee. Unbelievable.

May 2008: In a surprise move, Michael Portillo joins the Labour Party. He is immediately selected as the candidate in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election and duly wins, returning to the House of Commons after a three-year absence.

July 2008: To widespread shock, Portillo produces the 71 nominations needed to initiate a leadership challenge against Gordon Brown.

August 2008: As the Labour leadership contest gets under way, Portillo's campaign manager, Charles Clarke, is extremely confident about his candidate's chances.

September 2008: Leadership results announced at the Labour Party conference. Portillo wins! He becomes Prime Minister one week later.

May 2009: General Election - Michael Portillo leads the Labour Party to its fourth victory in the row. David Cameron resigns the Tory leadership and is replaced by a really cute puppy.

December 2009: Prime Minister Portillo reveals that he is, in fact, the Master off "Doctor Who".

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Re: Lord Oakshott

"I didn't think peers were allowed to vote?"

They can vote at local elections.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't Alison Hallford the former senior police officer who was involved in a rather interesting court case?

Anonymous said...

@BNP 1st:

just wish people born in england got 1st choice

Well, that would put Boris at the back of the queue.

Anonymous said...

Portillo's real problem, of course, is self-hatred at bottling out of the Torry leadership election, only to see Cameron have the balls to stand, win and reach last night's heights. To quote that great thinker of our times, CJ Cregg, "decisions are made by those who turn up". Where were you, Michael?