Monday, March 15, 2010

Tory Lead Up to 9 Points in New Poll


As I always say, one poll doesn't tell ius very much at all, but after several weeks of polls showing a narrowing Tory lead, a new ICM poll for tomorrow's Guardian puts the Tories up three points at 40%, with a nine point lead - enough for a reasonable majority. Julian Glover's analysis is well worth reading. One worrying aspect is this growing assumption on the part of the electorate that a Hung Parliament would be a good thing. 44% think this, while only 29% favour an overall Tory majority and 18% an overall Labour majority.

UPDATE: The Daily Express has a poll showing an increase of 2% in the Tory lead to 11%. Con 39, Lab 28, Lib 16.

13 comments:

Jason Myers said...

If people want a hung parliament then it'll be Labour led by Brown & Lib Dems. No cuts for a year then massive tax rises & some cuts. Brown & Clegg don't have the balls to make proper cuts. Cameron does. Great news to have a bigger poll lead hope Tories keep the lead & extend it. Hope Darling's budget gets ravaged as it did in 2008 & 2009.

Richard Manns said...

There may be 44% who say they'd like a hung parliament, but who are these 44%?

Non-voters (stung by the expenses story) and LibDems (whose only shot at any power in the short-term is through a hung parliament) together would happily make that total.

And, of course, has this question been asked before? If not, we cannot compare, and the question not only reminds voters of what is a rare and short-lived phenomenon in the UK, but the BBC and everyone else have talked of nothing else.

Oldrightie said...

Iain, this is excellent news. As for the "hung" parliament nonsense, this is no more than a Labour meme and a leftie straw to clutch at. I am still expecting a 100 seat or more majority, if rigged polling fails to win the day.

Tom King said...

Jason Myers, Cameron hasn't announced any proper cuts as yet. The Liberal Democrats have set out by far the most comprehensive plan for tackling the deficit, although by their own admission it doesn't go far enough.

The Tories might apparently deign to let us into the mysterious secrets of their economic policy, but only after the Budget, according to this BBC article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8567543.stm

norman said...

@Manns I would also add so many Labour supporters who know better wnats Brown to win just to keep their party in power and not caring for the country. If they had run up personal debts on the scale Brown has subjected this country to, they would have lost everything they have.

Plenty said...

The only poll that matters is the one in May....

trevorsden said...

its not just 'cuts' its about a different way to run the country - its about getting better value for what we spend. We need real and good public services delivered efficiently.

One public service we do not need and could save every household £150 a year is the BBC.

Will these polls start to scotch the hung parliament story? Will be interesting to see YG tonight and how its new methodology, introduced for these daily polls, holds up.

Jason Myers said...

Tom King (emmerdale referrence?) the Tories have already said: no more tax credits to those earning more than £50K - sensible, raising the retirement age - why leave it until 2016? It's going to happen anyway might as well bring it forward, public sector pay freeze on all but lowest paid.
Osbourne has been much more honest on cuts than Brown, who didn't dare use the C word for ages!!!

Prodicus said...

Keep. The. Faith.

Enlightened Despot said...

Isn't the 44% a hint? A great chunk of potential voters can't stand party politics. They want the parties to work together instead of engaging in negative games. They might not realise how paralysing a hung Parliament might be, but I bet that the appeal in the question lay in the bit about the government having to work with other parties.

Andy JS said...

If the polls were to show a 40/31 situation, an actual result of 41/29 would very much be on the cards, given the fact that the polls always overestimate the Labour share.

Not a sheep said...

Do you think the BBC will report these polls or will that ruin their 'polls are narrowing' narrative?

Me said...

This poll is great news. And I plead to those on the right: stop picking on Cameron and Osbourne et al. They are not the government, why pick of them? - pick on the government!
The government that if re-elected would push through a raft of left-wing policies that will ruin this country further still.
Just a couple of reasons why we need a Tory government: (and you don't have to be Tory to believe this, just fair-minded and democratic)
1/ The demonstrably unfair boundaries will be changed to make constituencies roughly the same size - this is good and fair.
2/ The unions would not be allowed to automatically take money from their members to give to the Labour party. Most of the members don't like this arrangement anyway.
Just two reasons to vote Tory - there are hundreds more. But we must fight! And WE MUST WIN! Britain's future rests on it: this is the most important General Election since '79 or '83.