Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Let Sunshine Win the Day

I was hoping to go to see David Cameron deliver his BIG SOCIETY speech this morning, but work issues held me up. So I was delighted to read Pete Hoskin's account of it HERE. Why delighted? Because if conforms to Dale's law of elections. What is Dale's law of elections, I hear you ask like a baying crowd? It's simple.

Optimistic politicians win elections, pessimistic politicians don't.

Of course, you can't radiate optimism all the time, and you have to face up to the enormous challenges which face you, but if you can be honest about the challenge AND optimistic about the result of meeting that challenge, I reckon you will usually triumph over those who radiate pessimism and negativity. It's why Reagan beat Carter. It's why Kennedy beat Nixon. It's why Thatcher beat Callaghan. It's why Clinton beat Bush. It's why Blair beat Howard.

And it is why Cameron will beat Brown.

UPDATE: You can read David Cameron's BIG SOCIETY speech HERE.

20 comments:

pete-s said...

Broon gave his speech all about immigration. Reminding the public ever reason why lying, divisive, incompetent Liebour should never be re-elected ever again.

Gipper said...

Kennedy beat Nixon because he ran an optimistic campaign?

Iain, most of us attribute it to voting irregularities in Cook County.

Roger Thornhill said...

Ironic.


I read your post then below is an ad: "Watch the heist".



This Big Society is at risk of becoming a Communitarian Nudgefest.

Adam Higgitt said...

Dale's law isn't Dale's law. It's widely observed phenomenon, and the subject of at least academic study.

James WB said...

I'm not sure that Thatcher radiated optimism - more a sort of fiercely determined "I will fix things by firm leadership" approach.

Sunny optimism works in sunny times, but in the throes of world depressions, the kind of insincere PR blarney that Dave specialises in starts to look out of place and even a bit odd, which is why he has shifted ground a lot recently and slacked off his lead.

So it depends what "win" means - I don't think Cameron will win an outright majority - the only way he could would be by ditching the hopeless Osborne, replacing him with Clarke, coming out squarely in an anti-banker campaign and pack in the slippery stuff about tackling the deficit whilst ring-fencing health, education, defence, etc.

Moriarty said...

I hope that when Cameron wins his majority morons like James WB will just shut up.

Deal?

Twig said...

@James WB
Ken Clarke was one of the backstabbers that did for Maggie.

The Tories completely lost their way after that and have never recovered.

Look at their front bench now - very uninspiring.

...

Nigel said...

Sorry Iain, but Brown has everyone beat on the optimism thing - he actually believes he has a chance of winning the next election.

So remember, there is a fine line between optimism and stark, staring delusion.

Oscar Miller said...

No coverage of Cam's speech on ITV News. In fact no political coverage at all in the entire news bulletin. Five weeks before an election - and not a whiff of it on the news. Very strange.

Hawkeye said...

We'll all know soon enough. I feel more confident about "Call me Dave" winning than I have over the last few weeks.

Not FULLY confident, just MORe confident. A bit. Somewhat.....

Err...

Norfolk Blogger said...

that does not explain 1992, which was fought as a negative anti Kinnock campaign by the Tories, although what does it tell us about 2005 in North Norfolk ?

Also, it does not quite fit with this story on your own blog.

http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/tories-hit-back-in-poster-wars.html

Lady Finchley said...

Lots of sour grapes here I can see.

Antisthenes said...

No, I do not buy the confidence approach is a winner, well I hope not because the Conservatives come over a lot less confident than Labour and considering the state the country is in that is totally opposite to what is should be. A comment I observed about determination makes sense, unfortunately the Conservatives are in second place on that as well.

Actually I believe the Conservatives played on the confidence angle because of the Kinnock fiasco but have overdone it. As for determination I believe the Conservatives are undecided as to whether or not they want power quite yet as they are daunted by the task ahead

pol-e-tics said...

I work in fundraising in the charity sector. When I'm asked how I can be a Conservative AND a charity worker I usually reply that a Conservative government would be far more positive towards charities. Unlike Labour's covert control over charity agendas to fulfil their social engineering objectives, Conservatives would fully recognise the important role of the third sector and encourage charities to meet the real needs they experience.

I'm pleased to see Cameron has addressed this issue, but rather disturbed by how government- directed it seems to be. I guess turning it into a policy Big Issue is inevitable and perhaps the government stimulated funding is necessary too. But I don't think we want blue-Tshirted Cameroonians directing all our social affairs. Give help - but allow charities the freedom to know what they need to do.

darkwater said...

Mr Cameron keeps trying to create (not in this case, merely, ride) a "Broken Britain" bandwagon.

This is no Mr Sunshine.

The reason that people are so weary of the politics of this election already is that the politicians of all the three parties are so negative..

cassandra said...

Thats the ticket folks, the made up fantasy of UK politics enters its final phase.
Oooh look at the spectacle of a wholly faked up political struggle, gasp in awe as our three heroes battle it out for the hearts of the loyal electorate.
Clap and cheer at the faked up different political agendas and narratives as the three political leaders slug it out for the top job.

Its all a faked up Hollywood style make believe flimflam three ringed circus to blind the bovine electorate and force them into handing power to the new post democratic state, they only have to con the UK voter into voting a new coalition into power this one time and never again will the vote have a genuine say in the running of the UK.
A hung parliament with the political classes in control will herald a massive change in the UK political system as demanded by our new supreme rulers in the EU, the changes to conform to the continental political system have already been negotiated and the term of the UKs sale to the EU have been decided.
Of course we had no say in the matter as grubby thick proles the political classes believe we are too stupid to make the right choices.
All the big three have to do is keep up the pretence of party political differences until they can form the next subject vassel serf state of the EUSSR, all the flimflam faked up theatre in the world cannot hide the truth.

Vote for the liblabcon if you want, but dont kid yourself that they are different in any way, there is far more than unites the political classes than divides them and all the faked up petty squabbles in the world cannot cover that up.

James said...

"Kennedy beat Nixon because he ran an optimistic campaign? Iain, most of us attribute it to voting irregularities in Cook County."

That's an urban myth in that Kennedy would have won in 1960 without Illinois.

Gipper said...

James - OK throw in Texas (which was also stolen) and you've got yourself a different result now don't you?

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

Why does the Dave want 5,000 community organisers?
Hasn't One caused enough damage already?

Anyway, great to see the polls improving.

James said...

Gipper - Texas wasn't close enough for the alleged irregularities to have made a difference. It's like Democrats complaining about Ohio in 2004 - if it had been closer they might have had a point, but it really wasn't close enough to matter.