Saturday, January 09, 2010

Telegraph Poll Predicts Tory Majority of 16

Earlier today I predicted a Conservative majority of 12 seats. This is exactly in line with an opinion poll being published in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph. Patrick Hennessy writes...

The Sunday Telegraph/ICM survey shows Labour on 30 per cent, one point higher than last month’s poll. The Conservatives are unchanged on 40 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down one point on 18 per cent. Repeated in an election the figures would give the Conservatives a very small Commons majority of roughly 16 seats.

The poll also reveals voters are divided on whether Labour would do better or worse in the general election, expected on 6 May, if the party replaced Gordon Brown as leader. Some 41 per cent said the party’s fortunes would improve with a new leader while 35 per cent said they would worsen.

Overall, Conservative voters thought Labour would fare better if the party ditched Mr Brown while supporters of Labour and the Lib Dems though he was Labour’s best bet. David Cameron was more likely to be trusted by voters on three key issues than Mr Brown, scoring clear wins on the NHS (by 43 per cent to 35 per cent), schools (46-34) and the economy (43-36). Exactly the same questions were asked by ICM in 2007, just as Mr Brown was preparing to take over from Tony Blair. Then Mr Cameron was narrowly ahead on the NHS and schools while Mr Brown has a large lead on the economy.


Quite how Labour has gone up a point rather defies belief.

14 comments:

John said...

My pet theory - British voters are suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.

Too many hostage films perhaps? How else can it be explained though?

Silent Hunter said...

That's not good enough.

I want to see labour reduced to a rump of less than 100 MP's.

C'mon people - vote "Anyone BUT Labour" and kick these corrupt shysters into the long grass for a generation . . . or preferably permanently.

Faceless Bureaucrat said...

"Quite how Labour has gone up a point rather defies belief."

As with all Polls, Iain, it depends who you ask and in which area.

Poll 1000 respondents in and around Islington and you will get a different slant than if you poll 1000 respondents in and around Kensington & Chelsea.

It certainly works for The Guardian...

FB

richard.blogger said...

Silent Hunter, remember that some of the "corrupt shysters" were Tory...

Navy Red said...

Having never been asked for my intention to vote I still fail how they predict who I will vote for.

Albert said...

Surely 30% of the voting population aren't public sector or on benefits? Who are these idiots?

no longer anonymous said...

They haven't gone up - http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/09/tory-icm-lead-up-just-one-point/

Irene said...

I believe they spoke to just over £1000 people - not enough IMO

John said...

10 points ahead that is +1

weggis said...

Quite how Labour has gone up a point rather defies belief.

It's a bit like cold weather during Global Warming innit?

A temporary blip does not a trend make!

Hairy Arsed Bloke said...

Sadly, I have always believed that Labour will remain in power. Although most people are very unhappy with them they see no reason to vote Conservative. Cameron is the wrong leader. He was created as a Blair clone, but that war had passed him by. The ‘us too’ strategy is not going to work now (if it ever would). The green agenda is an illustration of how vacuous the Conservatives are.

There needs to be bold new ideas; what used to be called ‘the vision thing’. Also there needs to be a bit of vengeance for the crimes perpetrated by Labour, reversal of their actions and repair of the lives of those that they have damaged.

Miller 2.0 said...

"Quite how Labour has gone up a point rather defies belief."

Perhaps the public were as happy as us to watch Geoff Hoon getting pwned.

Silent Hunter said...

Ah but Richard - you have to admit that the majority of them were Labour.

And it was a Labour majority who carried out the biggest fiddles, like flipping homes etc.

Elizabeth said...

Brown may be the best candidate for the Labour Party; however, he faces much criticism. This report makes Brown's future look grim: http://www.newsy.com/videos/brown_and_out_british_pm_faces_mounting_criticism