Saturday, January 09, 2010

Make Your Own Election Prediction

At the suggestion of a reader, I have uploaded an Excel spreadsheet for you all to go through the 650 seats and make your own predictions. Click HERE to download it.

Just fill in your prediction of who will win the seat in 2010 and then in the next column type in Con Gain, Lab Hold etc. Let us know how you get on. I warn you, it takes ages to do and you will need to have the Rallings & Thrasher Media Guide or the UK Polling Report constituency profiles to do it in any meaningful way.

16 comments:

Fuddled Medic said...

Have you done this yet? Personally I'm happy predicting it all on the country level, which could go either way at the moment

robertmbrown said...

I will have a bash, cheers for this.

If lots of people did it I am sure with a few survey questions: what party will you vote for? where do you live? etc... a decent bit of reasearch could be done.

The predictions could be really accurate I suspect.

Thorpe said...

I think that the expenses scandal will throw up some anomalies. For instance, in Huntingdon ("safe Con" in your spreadsheet) there is massive local disgust at the greed of Johnathan Djanogly - there's quite a protest vote building, with most support going to UKIP. I don't suspect there'll be quite enough to tip the seat, but the majority will be significantly reduced. If the same sort of thing happens elsewhere in the country, in more marginal seats, then upsets will occur. I think that the expenses thing is going to act like a Joker, not in favour of any particular party.

Mike Hobday said...

Dear Iain,
Impressed to find I'm fighting a safe Labour seat in Welwyn Hatfield. I'm sure a lot of work went into the spreadsheet, but you'll forgive me for not relaxing at the final stretch?
Best regards
Mike

Iain Dale said...

Mike, oops. I knew there would be the odd descriptive mistake somewhere! I still have it down as a Con Hold!

Navy Red said...

Hummm. Interested in politics as I am I think I will spend the time doing other things.

Like the washing.

I think this is a start but I suspect this election is going to be too hard to predict. The varibales are many and never seen before. First time voters (18-20ish group) are going to voting differently as the recession hits them. Traditionally going for Labour as the radical thing might not be the case. Also there will be plenty of standing MPs who people will want to give a kicking. Tactical voting will be bigger than before. All I can say is sit back and enjoy the ride.

Mike Law said...

Taxes will go up after the election.
MPs Pay will increase above the rate of inflation.

wonkotsane said...

A Tory that thinks Bercow will keep his seat? How quaint!

The Tory Story said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
David Blake said...

Iain - I may have missed it but where does the description come from?

Iain Dale said...

Description of what?

David Blake said...

Column E of the spreadsheet.

Libertarian said...

Would help if the spreadsheet was right in first place

Sittingbourne is a Labour seat Derek Whyatt ( just 72 votes)

Obviosly it won't be after the election. It will go UKIP

Iain Dale said...

Libertarian, Wrong. Because of boundary changes it is classed as a notional Tory seat. See Rallings & Thrasher.

Nick said...

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/retiring-mps

Gives which MPs are retiring or don't have a seat.

Also in particular there also needs to be the details of who's been a porker and commiting fraud on the expenses front.

ie. A porker standing for re-election gets hit/gains by the swing, but losses on the expenses. All local opponents will big it up on the pork.

When Thorpe says, its not in favour of any particular party, that's not the case. With more MPs, labour is going to lose more from the expenses.

The votes from the last 2005 election as percentages are interesting. If they were in the spreadsheet lots could be done.

ie. You could then put the swing in, but factor in sleaze to.

My guess is that sleaze will be a 5-10% swing against a porker.

With a porker not standing, I also expect a small sleaze factor.

Nick

Twig said...

Buckingham is currently listed on the spreadsheet as "Safe Ind".
I thought it was John Bercow?

Anyway I've changed it to UKIP, and I've updated the rest of the list and overall it appears to be a landslide to UKIP, with Tories remaining in opposition and a complete wipe out for communism.