The poll shows:
- David Cameron has a 15-point lead over Gordon Brown over who would make the best Prime Minister.
- In a General Election there would be an 11.5% swing from Labour to Tory.
- Voters think the Tory leader has the best ideas in almost every area - from defence to running the NHS.
- The Tories had the best policy ideas during the Party conferences, with four out of five backing their two-year freeze on council tax.
This time last year our mighty marginals poll found Labour would lose 49 seats. That was enough to make Gordon Brown call off a General Election.
Nick Sparrow, Managing Director, ICM Research: “This poll clearly shows voters in marginal seats across the country judging Labour even more harshly than they are across the rest of the country. There is also a steady development. In April we had a 9% swing which gave the Conservatives 131 seats. This time it’s 11.5%, which translates into 164 seats. This shows the Conservative Party’s tactic of targetting voters in marginal seats is clearly working, exaggerating what is already a considerable national swing.”
This poll was carried out in 192 marginal seats, and reflects what a similar PoliticsHome poll found recently.