The poll shows:
- David Cameron has a 15-point lead over Gordon Brown over who would make the best Prime Minister.
- In a General Election there would be an 11.5% swing from Labour to Tory.
- Voters think the Tory leader has the best ideas in almost every area - from defence to running the NHS.
- The Tories had the best policy ideas during the Party conferences, with four out of five backing their two-year freeze on council tax.
This time last year our mighty marginals poll found Labour would lose 49 seats. That was enough to make Gordon Brown call off a General Election.
Nick Sparrow, Managing Director, ICM Research: “This poll clearly shows voters in marginal seats across the country judging Labour even more harshly than they are across the rest of the country. There is also a steady development. In April we had a 9% swing which gave the Conservatives 131 seats. This time it’s 11.5%, which translates into 164 seats. This shows the Conservative Party’s tactic of targetting voters in marginal seats is clearly working, exaggerating what is already a considerable national swing.”
This poll was carried out in 192 marginal seats, and reflects what a similar PoliticsHome poll found recently.
17 comments:
And as Labour face annihilation in the polls, Gordon and his new best friend Peter are re-arranging the deckchairs
Isn't this called displacement activity?
I'm sure the appointment of the Prince of Darkness, back to the cabinet, will turn the polls around!!
HA! HA! HA!
This reshuffle is as thin as the shiny veneer on Brown's teeth; a window dressing exercise to show a cabinet of gravitas. Gravitas my arse!
Where was the economic council of experts last year, or 10 years ago when GB started as chancellor?
It's nothing more than a sop to show he's doing something.
A 78 seat deficit is the least this twit deserves.
I think this poll mitigates Labour's losses. It could well be much, much worse than this!
Labour and Brown cannot cite this as a US problem - it is one Labour have excacibated in this country through there policies in this country. The Labour government and US adminstration are two cheeks on the same bottom. They followed the same policies on allowing sub-prime to permeate the housing market and thus the economy.
Labour are to blame here and they are doomed - DOOMED as are the Liberal Democrats for failing to side with the conververtives in scrutinising the Labour government.
The horror, the horror.
OT - but 2 unrelated BBC radio shows have taken utter liberties. The news quiz last night mocked the Ghurkas! Clive Anderson did a chat show thing with Tony Parsons, Rhona Cameron & Sir Michael White. Mickey had to invigilate as Parsons went off on one & Rhona stated that she would even want to associate with a Tory - hmm. It's just constant these days.
Looking forward to Andy Marr to start a nice, frustrated Sunday.
Have a good evening.
I have been most pleased with the vast public acclaim and rejoicing at my appointment. And of course there has been support from all sectors of the Party and the Glorious Project. It only remains to translate this into overwhelming success at the next General Election.
You can discount these polls. Only I have the truth. Remember, I am a serious person for serious times.* Even Mr Edward Testes has been forced to admit this. I am a risk worth taking.
*Oh, and of course Gordon is too. Did I forget to mention him? Bless.
That's a bigger swing than Labour achieved in 1997. I am not sure I believe it, but it is the consistent message of the polls. The big question, I suppose, is will it get worse still?
anon 7.26pm
I can only speak for my area but I definitely believe it - the 23 marginals in the West Midlands(including the one with our erstwhile Home Secretary- Ms Smith) are on track to go Conservative in 2010(barring Brown pulling off the greatest miracle since polling began) and at this moment in time I can't really see that Brown's re-shuffle or Mandelson is likely to make much difference to the trend
These polls will never (well ok for 18 months) convert to seats as Gordon Brown will never call an election while the polls are against him.
He will do everything he can in terms of media manipulation, news management , spending our future in grand schemes he can be personally associated with and if necessary changing the electoral system and maybe suspending democracy.
The man is a menace who is allowed to destroy our country by the weak willed and self interested Labour MPs who betray their country by letting him spend an extra minute in power.
anonymous @ 7:35 PM
Agree with you there. I live half the year in Dave Cameron's constituency in Oxfirdshire and half the year in Worcester.
Worcester will go Tory next time but there is on ething that the Tory Party absolutley must do once in power and that is to convert the former working class Cathedral cities like Worcester, York, Oxford, and elsewhere to Tory strongholds and control them for ever. These places need linking physically to the South East by encoraging young middle class commuters to go and live there by building fast railway lines to London.If they let them just stay as regional cities they may swing back again to Labour or LibDem after the next election.
If Gordon Brown can't even convince voter that Labour has better ideas for running the NHS any more, there's no hope for him.
I'd be surprised if many people even know what the Tory policies on the health service are. They've just reached a point where they are sick of Labour.
A week is a long time in politics...I suggest that DC dumps his proposal for tax cuts for married couples. It's really a crap idea.
I'm still undecided.
Nobody gives a toss what you think Canvas. You are part of the left-wing sisterhood and not a voter that the Conservatives need. You don't vote Labour because of the Iraq war.
Tax breaks, for anyone, are a good idea, as any Conservative knows.
For years I've tried to write off suggestions of BBC bias as paranoia but no longer .... and their coverage of this poll is a typical example of the Biased Broadcasting Corporation in action.
Last night at 10.00pm - BBC ceefax - poll not mentioned. ITV teletext - poll story running.
This morning's BBC review of the papers - "NOTW says Brown and Labour resurgent". Pretty strange analysis of the headline "Even Mandy can't save him!"
If (no compalcency!) we were to form the next Govt. (as the poll suggests) then something is going to have to be done......
Never trust polls just after conferences, they vary too much.
But i do thing that labour has managed to pick itself up, if only a little...
Still I think we ought to find a way to get everyone to say Lib Dems, on the exit polls, at the next election, I’d love to see the BBC try to explain it. The swig-o-meter would have a fit.
The big news is actually that Labour is moving from 6 months ago 25-30 bracket to 30-35(poll of polls)and if the economy i.e. cc & inflation is turned round. It will move to 35-38 (18 months to do that) and then as the brits normally do, we like you CMD, but not at my bank accounts/pockets expense. i.e risk-averse
No majority - Nu_lab saved. CMD > face a possible leadership from Boris or David D. Watch this space
MAPA
if u go to the NOTW site u can download the FULL survey.
You'll see that 30ish% didn't vote at the last election and don't intend to vote at the next one.
Just because the NuLabScum are unpopular it doesn't mean the BluLabScum are popular.
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