Monday, January 29, 2007

Blair to Resign This Week?

A friend of mine had a phone call from BBC News 24 a couple of days ago wanting Charlie Whelan's number. "It's for a piece we're doing to show on the day Blair resigns," said the caller. "So when do you reckon that's going to be then," asked my friend. "Next week," came the instant response.

No, I don't believe it either, but if he did resign this week and I hadn't posted it, I'd never be able to live with myself.

Thank you and good night!

48 comments:

verity said...

Canny, Iain. Canny!

Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence said...

I have a feeling, this could be right.

As Jim Callaghan said about the Major govt, following the ERM exit:

"the skies are darkening with chickens coming home to roost"

12:46 AM

Robin Hoodie said...

The depressing thing about this possibilty is that Brown will take over and will essentially be "plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose," as they say in France.

Meanwhile, here in Sherwood Forest, Notts Conservatives have just snatched a County Council seat in the Hucknall Division within the Sherwood constituency of Paddy Tipping. This result is off the Richter scale in terms of disasterous for Labour locally and suggests something is happening beyond their comprehension or control.

If these local by-elections continue to damage Labour, I am sure Blair will go before Easter.

Anonymous said...

I haven't been following the news over the past few days (it's the weekend and I have clubs to go to and time to spend inebriated. Personal responsibility is my middle name.), but Dizzy mentioned a story about a paper trail in the peerages scandal leading all the way back to Blair. Is this linked?

Howard said...

Maybe, just maybe that explains his attitude on The Politics Show yesterday. Iain, you are close to events. Surely the BBC and others will be tipped off?

verity said...

Whoaaah! Blair looks bad, doesn't he?

verity said...

Oh,Bambi, we hardly knew ye!

chatterbox said...

Iain, a few weeks ago I would have laughed at this.
But over the last few weeks just looking at the scandal filled headlines and a PM who ducked the first debate on Iraq in years, it has a ring of truth about it. In fact just seeing that interview he gave today made me think he might be going sooner than anyone thought.
You just might have given away the biggest political scoop in many a year.

morrocanroll said...

We all know that 'The Thick Of It' points the way to future reality. So what was the shock event at the end of the Xmas Special? Yup, the shock resignation of the PM.

Tucker's Scottish side-kick

'He's resigned. He just stepped of a plane in Sunderland and...'

Julius Nicholson
'Well that wasn't the date I was given...'

Oh, and I've been tipped of by one of my most accurate sources (I'm a real hack) that No10 is in-line for a search warrant anytime soon..

realist said...

Under normal circumstances, Blair's departure next week, should elicit feelings not encountered since the street parties on VE day.
Why is it that news like this depresses me so much? Surely it can't have anything to do with the the dark thought, that the "Hammer of the Scots", sorry I mean "clunking great, sneak-thief, fist", is poised for the take-over.

My God! wouldn't it be nice to be Rip Van Winkle.

Tom Tyler said...

Perhaps the BBC News person was just making a light-hearted joke? But I have to say, it did cast my mind back to your New Year Predictions post, when you wrote "For how many days of 2007 will Blair be PM? - (your prediction): 31". Wondered if you were also being flippant there, Iain, or else what prompted such a remark?

Graham E said...

The vainglorious egotist that is Blair has two options to determine his 'legacy'. He can eke out a few more months in the hope that everything comes good ( and he's delusional enough to believe this could happen) or he can go immediately before things get worse. My guess is that the wicked witch will calculate that future earnings will be best served by taking the latter option. So Brown will get his move just as the economy goes tits up. Blair will show us what a wonderful Britain he has created by taking the 1st plane to the USA.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the early exit. He is dead in the water, it isn’t as bad as it is going get. If he is a sitting PM when the balloon goes up over peerages it will devastate his earnings power, Bliar is no Clinton, who wants to be associated with a corrupt polititian. Clinton was more popular after his scandals with the US population, dont think Bliar will be able to say the same.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the early exit. He is dead in the water, it isn’t as bad as it is going get. If he is a sitting PM when the balloon goes up over peerages it will devastate his earnings power, Bliar is no Clinton, who wants to be associated with a corrupt polititian. Clinton was more popular after his scandals with the US population, dont think Bliar will be able to say the same.

Anonymous said...

How many more "Blair (Prescott, Blunkett, Clarke, Kelly, Hewitt, Pardew, Sven) to resign this week" stories are you going to run before you get one right, Iain? Eventually the law of probability must mean you'll score soon and claim an incredible scoop, but so far even when some of them have resigned it is when you haven't predicted it.

Anonymous said...

He is certainly considering it.

It's on a knife edge as they say.

Anonymous said...

BOB PIPER TO RESIGN THIS WEEK?

javelin said...

I believe it - watching the interview closely yesterday Blair is a man without his eye on the ball.

If he got an agreement for a job at Davos from Bill Gates he will will have discussed it with Cherie yesterday. With the ploice closing down on him fast he will want a quick exit strategy.

Anonymous said...

I think he will be consistent and, assuming he has been studying Zen, He will resign in an attempt to bury the bad news of his resignation. It might just work.

2br02b said...

From Bob Piper's own site:

"Industry: Government"

Some sort of oxymoron, surely?

Philipa said...

Oh stop it, don't tease.

Kate said...

It certainly seems feasible.

Other problems aside, does he really want his last act as Leader of the Labour Party to be responsibility for heavy losses in the Welsh, Scottish and council elections? Probably not, and it's inevitable that a new Leader at this time would boost Labour's chances in May.

how-awful said...

You are Guido do I win £5

stoolpigeon said...

what do the BBC want whelan's number for? one of the few people who would make me run into the arms of the blairites...

Anonymous said...

Being interviewed under caution about those hand-written comments being the final srtraw????????

Anonymous said...

I think that is quite beliveable Iain .Blair is chiefly interested in his career and at this point money is the drive . I can quite believe he will time his departure to coincide with some lecture tour or the publication of his book.

By the way how do you feel about David davies coming down on the side of Freedom from gay Lobby oppression? Perhaps he`s paying you back for writing the "That speech".


BTW Been catching up on old Doughty Streets , you are very good.

Iain Dale said...

Newmania, it's a free country. It's a conscience issue. He takes one view, I take a different one. We had a robust exchange of views on the phone about it yesterday nand agreed to disagree!

PS I didn't write that speech. Just so you know. But I am happy to take collective responsibility for it !

Tim said...

In favour of the suggestion he'll go soon is Northern Ireland progress providing him with a high, the damage he is doing to Labour and his reputation by staying, Reid's demise making Brown's assent virtually unstoppable (if only Blair had given way before Reid's problems?) and the risk of being forced out by his cabinet a la his heroine. On the other hand he wants to make 10 years and outlast Chirac, may still have dreams of stoppping Gordon, is a power hungry narcissist, has tenants to kick out of his place in London, can always hope that a big crisis comes which gives him a new reason for being there, will be reluctant to go if too many people start predicting it. Cherie is probably urging him to stay but if he is finally flipping then those close to him may persuade him to step down.

Anonymous said...

Will NL cancel local elections in England If they can ram home unitary authorities with the aid of their quisling English coucillors? I seem to remember that one a couple of years ago.

Neil Craig said...

In the same way newspapers & TV keep obituaries on file. Doesn't mean they have advance information from Himself & it seems unlikely Tony would have confided in a BBC researcher.

Ask a stupid question...

Man in a shed said...

You don't have an arrest warrant also ?

Anonymous said...

General Election on May 3rd then Iain?

Anonymous said...

So when's the party?

Anonymous said...

I D-Newmania, it's a free country....etc.

How fascinating !!!
Thanks


ID-I didn't write that speech......
I am happy to take collective responsibility for it !


(You`ll make a fine Minister)

Anonymous said...

I suspect Tony will be there until May at least. That way he'll be able to boast about ten years in office.

Anonymous said...

How much money will Blair's "friends" make (with insider knowledge) on betting when he goes?

Jess The Dog said...

At the risk of saying "I told you so" I posted this on the "Blair losing the plot pt 94" thread yesterday.

If NI falls into place, it is virtually the only "legacy window" available before the 10 year point. There are some othe potential windows beyond his control, not least a "prosecution window"!

Reminiscent of the last days of Hitler, as portrayed in the film Downfall.

I wonder if Bliar will go within the next week. Sinn Fein have voted to accept the PSNI. If the DUP return to power-sharing, Bliar could be tempted to reiterate the "hand of history" speech and to pretend that peace in Northern Ireland is all his doing. There aren't many other palatable legacy options!

Anonymous said...

Interesting theory - but the bookies still make it around 19 to 1 that he will leave before the end of March.

So it doesn't look as though there is a weight of money on it yet. However the 'spread betting exchanges' may be a better guide to how many weeks left.

Anonymous said...

After watching Blair on Sunday, I realise the man is quite deluded. It has all gone past him.
He is also a stubborn sort of guy, with the repartee of a second hand car salesman.
So. He could even hang in there by his fingertips, until parliament goes down for the summer.
He does want to screw Gordon after all, doesnt he?

Anonymous said...

ACL Blair has a week or so after your departure date to meet my Xmas wish list retort from Secret Santa to Luke Akehurst. Luke said six months, I said I preferred six weeks. Sorry to quote the Sun again but they are insisting on a summer departure - presumably this would help NL as many of the members with school age children, who are teachers, and who are students would be unavailable for polling. This moves the party rightwards.

Anonymous said...

Considering the "scoop" aspect of this story ... if Iain prints this every few days after some slight calm he will eventually get it right. It is "The End of the World is Nigh!" for Conservative fantasists. But one day it will come true. One day Iain's check shirt will be handed in to Oxfam or otherwise pass beyond the reach of our TV screens. But not necessarily the day aftre tomorrow.

Acer said...

I have long believed the answer lies in France. My money has always been on Blair leaving office (as opposed to announcing his resignation) some day after 21 May. That's the day that the new French president takes over, and barring some incredible upheaval it's au revoir Jacques. Blair will just love to be still in No 10 to put that final phone call through to the Elysee. Equally he won't want it the other way round with Jacques calling him to commiserate.

Anonymous said...

Hold on. This might mean he is resigning as leader of the Labour Party NOT as PM. Which would make sense. Not only is their website is all excited about the prospect of the membership being asked to elect a PM but given the logistics etc it would take about three to four months to run the election allowing for Easter. This would mean he would still be in office as PM until May 3 a date that must loom large in his mind. But would then be able to recommend to The Queen a successor able to command the confidence of the Commons.

2br02b said...

Reminiscent of the last days of Hitler

Inside the F├╝hrerbunker:

"30th April would make a good date for departure, Mein F├╝hrer.

"Meanwhile you can play with these imaginary divisions on this map of the Middle East."

Anonymous said...

Isn't Davos in [or near] Switzerland?

Cue 'swiss toni' used car salesman gag

Anonymous said...

Much as I'd like to believe it, I don't think Blair is sane enough to realise the best thing he could do is resign now, although I would be very happy to be proved wrong.

Anonymous said...

Yoy will know TB is going when you hear his nails scratching down the cliff face.

Even then someone will need to stamp on his hands for him to let go.