We all know that The Sun has a special phoneline into Number Ten. So tomorrow's Sun front page which says that Blair will go in May 2007 is likely to be more than informed guess. This would certainly be seen as a climbdown by Blair, who only recently said he expected to attend next year's G8.
The question is, can he hang on until May next year? My guess is that Labour MPs are in such a state of foment that they will try their level best to force him out earlier. What no one seems to have worked out is if there is a formal mechanism for doing so. Or will it be the kind of war of attrition that Conservative MPs conducted against Iain Duncan Smith? My bet is on the latter.
UPDATE: The Sun now says that he will quit on 31 May 2007, triggering a leadership contest. A new leader would be in place on July 26th, thirteen years almost to the day since he became leader of the Labour Party.