It has been a very strange morning so far. First of all I listened to a very uncomfortable Gordon Brown being interviewed on 5 Live. As I listened I kept thinking to myself: "This man is just not going to win". Brown just doesn't feel comfortable in his own skin. He keeps inserting little personal anecdotes into interviews to try to make him appear 'normal' (whatever 'normal' is nowadays).
Today we learned that he listens to his iPod while running in the gym. Not an image to conjure up over breakfast. Brown only really hit his stride when talking about foreign affairs. It was instructive that he was plainly taken aback by a 5 Live poll which showed 89 per cent didn't want him as PM.
He also won't be delighted if he watches Newsnight tonight. Frank Luntz has done another one of his focus groups which shows John Reid in a rather good light. I well remember the effect of a similar event a year ago when he single-handedly relaunched a flagging David Cameron leadership campaign. I hope his methodology has become a little more, er, robust.
Media reaction to Brown's speech will be more important than the reaction in the hall. If it bombs, the media will again develop a herd instinct, just as they did last year following David Davis's speech.
It won't be his delivery which fails Brown - it will be the content and lack of vision. Phrases like 'me tooism' are unlikely to have a rampant rabbit effect on the journalistic G-spots. The media are always waiting for the front runner to trip up. Believe me, I should know. Will it be today when they are granted their wish?